Yeah, Gwynne has done a very good job, here. SpaceX can continue just on its Falcon 9 dominance (solidified by FH, Block 5, and possibly upper stage reuse). BFR isn’t a “bet the company” thing.
Quote from: geza on 07/20/2018 06:27 amhe [Elon] betted SpaceX on BFRQuote from: speedevil on 07/20/2018 01:09 pm- he really diddn't.Quote from: Robotbeat on 07/20/2018 01:27 pmBFR isn’t a “bet the company” thing.I think geza's point originates from Elon's stated intentions to build enough reusable F9 Block 5 boosters and enough expendable S2s to last for awhile, shut down F9 production, and shift everything to BFR production. I could be mistaken, but I believe that was said when he hoped to build BFR at Hawthorne, prior to the decision to build BFR at the Port of Los Angeles.That begs the question, and I apologize if I missed the answer elsewhere, what happens to the line at Hawthorne when enough F9s are built? Is the tooling left to sit idle? How much of it is moved to PoLA? I assume the same workers will then commute to PoLA. If BFR experiences massive unforeseen difficulties, how difficult would it be to restart the F9 line at Hawthorne?
he [Elon] betted SpaceX on BFR
- he really diddn't.
BFR isn’t a “bet the company” thing.
That begs the question, and I apologize if I missed the answer elsewhere, what happens to the line at Hawthorne when enough F9s are built? Is the tooling left to sit idle? How much of it is moved to PoLA? I assume the same workers will then commute to PoLA. If BFR experiences massive unforeseen difficulties, how difficult would it be to restart the F9 line at Hawthorne?
Yeah, and theoretically they could do thousands of launches (worth hundreds of billions in revenue) with just a few dozen F9 cores. With reusable upper stages, BFR is completely optional for the long-term health of the company... but they will push BFR hard.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 07/21/2018 01:24 amYeah, and theoretically they could do thousands of launches (worth hundreds of billions in revenue) with just a few dozen F9 cores. With reusable upper stages, BFR is completely optional for the long-term health of the company... but they will push BFR hard.wishful thinking...they will not come close to that with Block 5 if they are lucky they will get to 10 a core...but I bet they dont get much past 5
What may be wishful thinking is the idea that there are thousands of launches they'll need to make. To demonstrate, say, 4000 flights in 20 years would require 200 flights per year. Not likely to happen at anywhere current prices.
If a reusable S2 and the ability to do 100 flights per booster brought the price of a single launch down to $6M as some have suggested, you might have a huge surge of demand. So much so that cluttered a LEO becomes even more of a problem. Regulatory agencies might even wind up denying launch permits simply because a payload is too unworthy in comparison to
Elon talked about "cannibalizing" the company...
If they got the cost down to $6M, that would be a major benefit to Starlink launches which would be at internal cost, but the price for customers ought to stay at least 5X-10X that high, otherwise they’re just leaving money on the table. When you’re already the lowest cost provider by a solid margin it’s not useful to keep cutting prices rather than growing profit margins. SpaceX still can offer special discounts to anyone who they think is a prospect for significantly growing the market without slashing official prices.
But for some contracts they can't bid higher than a certain profit margin, I think? Government contracts? or is that only bidding below cost?
Quote from: Robotbeat on 07/20/2018 01:27 pmYeah, Gwynne has done a very good job, here. SpaceX can continue just on its Falcon 9 dominance (solidified by FH, Block 5, and possibly upper stage reuse). BFR isn’t a “bet the company” thing.Starlink is an extra dimension to the problem. It was not mentioned in the "cannibalism" talk. Starlink requires huge amount of money from external investors. If that money arrives, it will be a huge demand for Falcon launches initially, and for BFR launches later. Then, financing BFR will not be a problem. If Starlink investment takes place but will not become profitable by any reason (remember Iridium), it is bankruptcy.
Seems like a good time to start working on landing BFR
https://mobile.twitter.com/larsblackmore/status/1022257359278682113Quote Seems like a good time to start working on landing BFR
BFS is capable of landing on the Moon. So it’s capable of landing on Mars even at high altitude if you use a slow transit (or possibly refuel... in LMO).