Author Topic: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2  (Read 2965308 times)

Offline Barrie

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #340 on: 01/02/2015 07:02 am »
Where does a Falcon go after flying? The nest. A good enough name for the ASDS?

A nest is its domicile.  When a bird stops flying for the time being it lands on a perch, which is also a suitably aquatic name  ::)

Offline mikes

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #341 on: 01/02/2015 07:40 am »

Where does a Falcon go after flying? The nest. A good enough name for the ASDS?

A nest is its domicile.  When a bird stops flying for the time being it lands on a perch, which is also a suitably aquatic name  ::)

A well-trained Falcon should alight upon the Gauntlet.

Offline rpapo

Looking at Google Maps, I noticed something.  For the ASDS to dock where it does, it must first pass under I-295 on the St. John's River.  While obviously the Carnival Cruise ships pass under that bridge, and they are tall by any normal standards for ships, does that bridge provide the approximately 160' clearance that the ASDS with a Falcon 9 first stage standing up on it would need to pass underneath? 

Answered my own question: Wikipedia tells me that the bridge has 175 feet (53m) clearance below.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dames_Point_Bridge

Now that would be quite a photo-op.  And imagine the traffic jam on the bridge from the rubber-neckers as the barge passes by.


« Last Edit: 01/02/2015 11:49 am by rpapo »
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Offline Jarnis

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #343 on: 01/02/2015 11:55 am »
Need NSF spy cameras on that bridge after Jan 6th launch assuming ASDS catches the prize and starts hauling it back...  ;D

Offline Dave G

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #344 on: 01/02/2015 12:09 pm »
Need I remind you that SpaceX has a habit of doing things NOT always the way you expect them to do? Need I remind you of the fact that SpaceX often deviates from what you think is the most logical course of actions?

Logic is just a tool for achieving more emotional goals.

SpaceX's goal is to enable people to live on other planets.  This is clear in their mission statement, and its very different from traditional aerospace companies.

In order to achieve this emotional goal, logic dictates that launch costs must be dramatically reduced.  When you look at things in this light, all of SpaceX's moves are what you would expect.  Everything is oriented toward dramatically reducing launch costs.





Offline dgates

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #345 on: 01/02/2015 12:20 pm »
I find it interesting to note, in passing, that the CRS-5 NASA Press Kit makes absolutely NO mention of the first stage recovery attempt.  In fact, there is only a single reference to first stage recovery, referencing the April 2014 soft landing water recovery.

What the heck!? One would think there would be SOME official notice of this potentially huge milestone event advancing booster technology, even if (from NASA's point of view) it was Not Invented Here.  Granted, it is not "NASA business" but rather "SpaceX business", but still.

Perhaps concern that a SpaceX successful, or even partially successful first stage recovery will overshadow CRS and/or ISS operations in the public view?  I think this is likely, especially of SpaceX releases "news candy" , i.e., photogenic,  video of the landing. 
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Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #346 on: 01/02/2015 12:50 pm »
I find it interesting to note, in passing, that the CRS-5 NASA Press Kit makes absolutely NO mention of the first stage recovery attempt.  In fact, there is only a single reference to first stage recovery, referencing the April 2014 soft landing water recovery.

What the heck!? One would think there would be SOME official notice of this potentially huge milestone event advancing booster technology, even if (from NASA's point of view) it was Not Invented Here.  Granted, it is not "NASA business" but rather "SpaceX business", but still.

Perhaps concern that a SpaceX successful, or even partially successful first stage recovery will overshadow CRS and/or ISS operations in the public view?  I think this is likely, especially of SpaceX releases "news candy" , i.e., photogenic,  video of the landing. 

Why should NASA?   The rocket stuff is for Spacex to talk about.   The NASA portion of the CRS-5 mission is to deliver supplies to the ISS, nothing more.

Offline dgates

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #347 on: 01/02/2015 12:59 pm »
Quote
Why should NASA?   The rocket stuff is for Spacex to talk about.   The NASA portion of the CRS-5 mission is to deliver supplies to the ISS, nothing more.

Oh, in general, I agree. 

That said, the first stage booster recovery technology development is, IMHO, certainly something NASA should be taking official notice of and supporting. Why?  Simple, the potential cost savings are large and if successful could reduce the cost for NASA substantially. It is a major rocket technology milestone event.  I would hope that NASA isn't so close-minded that just because it isn't something they developed in-house for themselves that they wouldn't at least cheer them on by acknowledging that the effort exists and will be conducted on a CRS flight, specifically THIS one. To not do so seems sort of petty.  Just wondering where the direction or suggestion to "non-mention" is coming from, NASA management or SpaceX?
« Last Edit: 01/02/2015 01:56 pm by dgates »
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Offline Dave G

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #348 on: 01/02/2015 01:07 pm »
... the first stage booster recovery technology development is, IMHO, certainly something NASA should be taking official notice of and supporting...

NASA is supporting SpaceX booster recovery technology in many meaningful ways, but not so publicly.

Remember that many in Congress seem dead-set against commercial space, so NASA publicizing their support of SpaceX booster recovery could easily backfire.

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #349 on: 01/02/2015 01:14 pm »

That said, the first stage booster recovery technology development is, IMHO, certainly something NASA should be taking official notice of and supporting. Why?  Simple, the potential cost savings are large and if successful could reduce the cost for NASA substantially. It is a major rocket technology milestone event.  I would hope that NASA isn't so close-minded that just because it isn't something they developed in-house for themselves that they wouldn't at least cheer them on by acknowledging that the effort exists and will be conducted on a CRS flight, specifically THIS one. To not do so seems sort of petty.  Just wondering where the direction or suggestion to "non-mention" is coming from, NASA management or SpaceX?

If, if, if.....   It could fail too and that would reflect poorly on NASA because people wouldn't know the difference.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #350 on: 01/02/2015 01:41 pm »
Oh, in general, I agree. 

That said, the first stage booster recovery technology development is, IMHO, certainly something NASA should be taking official notice of and supporting. Why?  Simple, the potential cost savings are large and if successful could reduce the cost for NASA substantially. It is a major rocket technology milestone event.  I would hope that NASA isn't so close-minded that just because it isn't something they developed in-house for themselves that they wouldn't at least cheer them on by acknowledging that the effort exists and will be conducted on a CRS flight, specifically THIS one. To not do so seems sort of petty.  Just wondering where the direction or suggestion to "non-mention" is coming from, NASA management or SpaceX?


You have to change your mind set a bit. This isn't a NASA mission just like they would not cover a FedEx delivery truck. They are only concerened about the supplies arriving. That being said, it will be sweet if successful and promoting it is up to SpaceX PR. Who knows it might be included in TW@NASA broadcast...
« Last Edit: 01/02/2015 03:42 pm by Rocket Science »
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #351 on: 01/02/2015 01:44 pm »
NASA is supporting SpaceX booster recovery technology in many meaningful ways, but not so publicly.
Very probably.

NASA is 11 centres across several states. I think it's clear that some are considerably more supportive of SpaceX's goals than others.
Quote
Remember that many in Congress seem dead-set against commercial space, so NASA publicizing their support of SpaceX booster recovery could easily backfire.
Very true. It's a milestone event in spaceflight if it works.  :(

Otherwise it's just another stage crashing into the sea.

Obviously if that happened it would still tell SpaceX a lot about what to do next (recall it took 3 launch failures before the 4th F1 got to orbit).

However I fear that's a bit nuanced for the US public to understand.   :(
« Last Edit: 01/02/2015 01:44 pm by john smith 19 »
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Offline MTom

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #352 on: 01/02/2015 02:19 pm »
Very true. It's a milestone event in spaceflight if it works.  :(

Otherwise it's just another stage crashing into the sea.


Better to say: it's just another way for crashing a stage into the see.  :D

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #353 on: 01/02/2015 02:59 pm »
Actions speak louder than words.  NASA supported the transitions to F9.1 and to DV2 even when a lot of voices (even from within) were grumbling about it. 

But then there's also politics, and the upside of this PR would have been minimal.   This way they can turn to the detractors and say "who?  us?  we're not even here..."
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #354 on: 01/02/2015 03:09 pm »
According to Musk (who isn't often accused of pessimism), it most likely won't work this first time. I'm not so sure it's a very good PR gamble for NASA to put their name all over it when they aren't really doing anything with it other than observing the result for Mars EDL supersonic retropropulsion research.
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Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #355 on: 01/02/2015 03:27 pm »
According to Musk (who isn't often accused of pessimism), it most likely won't work this first time. I'm not so sure it's a very good PR gamble for NASA to put their name all over it when they aren't really doing anything with it other than observing the result for Mars EDL supersonic retropropulsion research.
That's SOP. They said the same thing on all previous attempts for anything.  So far they are doing much better than 50%....
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Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #356 on: 01/02/2015 03:35 pm »
I find it interesting to note, in passing, that the CRS-5 NASA Press Kit makes absolutely NO mention of the first stage recovery attempt.  In fact, there is only a single reference to first stage recovery, referencing the April 2014 soft landing water recovery.

What the heck!? One would think there would be SOME official notice of this potentially huge milestone event advancing booster technology, even if (from NASA's point of view) it was Not Invented Here.  Granted, it is not "NASA business" but rather "SpaceX business", but still.

Perhaps concern that a SpaceX successful, or even partially successful first stage recovery will overshadow CRS and/or ISS operations in the public view?  I think this is likely, especially of SpaceX releases "news candy" , i.e., photogenic,  video of the landing.

I don't find that surprising.

It is a post-mission flight test, self-financed by SpaceX.  It really has nothing to do with space transport services that SpaceX has contracted to supply to NASA.  The NASA/mission doc is about the customer, and the customer-paid-for launch service.

Once the first stage has fulfilled its role, accelerating the second stage to a certain velocity on a particular trajectory, SpaceX gets to accomplish a flight test at lower marginal cost since they do not need to absorb the cost of getting the first stage to Mach 10 and 80 km altitude or so.  SpaceX quite naturally keeps most info about its flight tests internal and proprietary, and certainly wouldn't muck up the customer mission package by adding post-mission flight test info.
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Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #357 on: 01/02/2015 04:03 pm »
According to Musk (who isn't often accused of pessimism), it most likely won't work this first time. I'm not so sure it's a very good PR gamble for NASA to put their name all over it when they aren't really doing anything with it other than observing the result for Mars EDL supersonic retropropulsion research.

I'd like to think he's sandbagging. :)
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #358 on: 01/02/2015 04:45 pm »
According to Musk (who isn't often accused of pessimism), it most likely won't work this first time. I'm not so sure it's a very good PR gamble for NASA to put their name all over it when they aren't really doing anything with it other than observing the result for Mars EDL supersonic retropropulsion research.

I'd like to think he's sandbagging. :)

He talked that way over the Cassiope launch as well. He says 50%. That makes me assume the chances are really better than that. Not 95% but quite good, provided the weather is not an obstacle. But at least 90% for the second try.


Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX's Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #359 on: 01/02/2015 05:52 pm »
According to Musk (who isn't often accused of pessimism), it most likely won't work this first time. I'm not so sure it's a very good PR gamble for NASA to put their name all over it when they aren't really doing anything with it other than observing the result for Mars EDL supersonic retropropulsion research.
That's SOP. They said the same thing on all previous attempts for anything.  So far they are doing much better than 50%....
Am I the only one who remembers that they never were able to achieve parachute splashdown for a first stage? They tried a whole bunch of times for that.

I think they'll probably be successful within these next two attempts, but this is still a very tough business! It's bad luck to not give Murphy pretty decent odds the first time you're doing something like this... I think slightly less than 50% for this time is reasonable. Going sonic or transonic while maneuvering for recovery has eaten many a rocket (Blue Origin, Armadillo). If they hadn't done most of these steps already on previous flights and F9Rdev1, I'd give them even lower chances. But don't underestimate how hard this is and overestimate your likelihood of success.

...I have high confidence (85+%) that they'll succeed this year, but I also was pretty sure they'd do first stage parachute recovery successfully.
« Last Edit: 01/02/2015 05:54 pm by Robotbeat »
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