Poll

Which of the following will fly first?

SpaceX Crewed Lunar Flyby
122 (75.8%)
SLS EM 1
35 (21.7%)
Neither Will Ever Fly
4 (2.5%)

Total Members Voted: 161

Voting closed: 03/28/2017 03:32 am


Author Topic: What will happen first: SpaceX Crewed Lunar Flyby or SLS EM-1  (Read 20084 times)

Offline Patchouli

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It seems EM-1 will likely happen before Spacex goes to the moon since they shelved Lunar Dragon for flying BFS to the moon.

BFS is in an early design stage at this point.

I find it a very odd decision on Spacex's part as lunar Dragon would have been relatively low cost and risk.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2018 08:23 pm by Patchouli »

Offline Lar

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It seems EM-1 will likely happen before Spacex goes to the moon since they shelved Lunar Dragon for flying BFS to the moon.

BFS is in an early design stage at this point.

I find it a very odd decision on Spacex's part as lunar Dragon would have been relatively low cost and risk.
It's a diversion.

I think some of us might be overestimating how far along BFS is. And some of us might be underestimating it.  We'll see
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline rockets4life97

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Maybe time for a new poll of whether SLS, BFR, Vulcan, New Glenn, or Omega will fly a payload to orbit first?

Offline mme

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Maybe time for a new poll of whether SLS, BFR, Vulcan, New Glenn, or Omega will fly a payload to orbit first?
1. Vulcan
2. Omega [1]
3. New Glenn [2]
4. BFR
5. SLS

[1] Seems like an "easy" rocket for the ATK team.
[2] I think New Glenn should be first, but I don't think they will be.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline Orbiter

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Will SpaceX put crew around the Moon before SLS flies? Doubt it.

Will they beat EM-2 with crew around the Moon? I, personally, think they have a good chance.
KSC Engineer, astronomer, rocket photographer.

Online meberbs

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Will SpaceX put crew around the Moon before SLS flies? Doubt it.

Will they beat EM-2 with crew around the Moon? I, personally, think they have a good chance.
Agreed for the most part, While I originally voted for SpaceX in this poll, changes to the plans put SLS ahead, with the only significant chance for SpaceX being if SLS never flies (which I consider a serious possibility, but not probable.) In a race for crew around the moon, I fully expect SLS slips to continue, while 2023 for SpaceX to put people around the moon is less aggressive than the 2022 unmanned to Mars, which they haven't backed off from (but I expect to slip.) Add in the chance that EM-2 never happens, and in my opinion, the scales tip in favor of SpaceX.

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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let us think about it...SpaceX is giving them 5 years to do this.  Is it aggressive - maybe?  Will there be schedule slip ?  Yes.  But that means by 2024 they should be able to fly to the moon.   Unless they cannot find the money, I would be very surprised if they do not get this moving.  Remember - SpaceX needs this for Starlink.

Offline speedevil

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let us think about it...SpaceX is giving them 5 years to do this.  Is it aggressive - maybe?  Will there be schedule slip ?  Yes.  But that means by 2024 they should be able to fly to the moon.   Unless they cannot find the money, I would be very surprised if they do not get this moving.  Remember - SpaceX needs this for Starlink.
They want it for Starlink.
It can be done with wholly reusable F9s - that they are also working on.

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