Author Topic: China and the Coming Space War  (Read 10271 times)

Offline edkyle99

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China and the Coming Space War
« on: 01/11/2008 02:29 pm »
Interesting, but seriously flawed, article at Wired.  

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/01/inside-the-chin.html

The basic problem with this analysis is the incorrect assumption that China only has one pad at XiChang capable of handling Long March 3 series launch vehicles.  As those who read these forums well know, China rebuilt the old Long March 2 "Pad 1", reopening it for use last year as "Pad 3".  Pad 3 and the older Pad 2 hosted six Long March 3 launches in 2007.

It is a flawed analysis based on that incorrect assumption.  Perhaps China could knock out many more GPS satellites than assumed.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline daver

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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #2 on: 01/11/2008 04:54 pm »
Makes a fair amount of assumptions that we do not know if they are or are not true.

1. Vis Sensor vs. IR based on the target was in sunlight while the ground assets where in darkness. Another take would be, it makes tracking the intercept easier since you do not have a bright background to filter out. It could be any sensor technology, we do not know.

2. Makes it seem like a GPS intercept is easier than a LEO intercept because the closing speed should be a little lower. It will also need a bigger rocket to get to that up there and the intercept takes longer since it needs to cover the additional altitude.

3. Assumes chinese ASAT's have a long on orbit storage capability and actually can enter a hoffman transfer orbit to get at a GPS or GEO bird.

Really seems like a piece designed to inflame anti-chinese feelings and ratchet up any US/Chinese tensions that may exist. Just what we need war with China.
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #3 on: 01/11/2008 06:07 pm »
A bunch of "China as Space Threat" type news articles appeared today (see, for example, http://www.spacetoday.net).  I finally realized why.  Today is the one-year anniversary of China's successful ASAT test.

Happy "ASAT Day" everyone!

 - Ed Kyle

Offline Analyst

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #4 on: 01/11/2008 07:51 pm »
Many people can't live without an enemy, without something to be afraid of, something to fight. Way too often this something are other people or peoples. I am pretty sure these "China is a threat people" have their own individual profit agenda. The Soviet Union does not serve this agenda any more, nor does Iraq. Iran, well not as much as hoped. But China. Cover and duck. Sad.

Analyst

Offline simonbp

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #5 on: 01/11/2008 09:34 pm »
That's true, but at the same time, IIRC, the test last year was the first live-fire launch of an anti-sat since the 1980s. So, the reality is that while China has no real interest in attacking the US, that's not going to stop them from developing cutting-edge weapons. And besides, the USA is not the only nation to have satellites in orbit...

Simon ;)

Offline Stevo

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #6 on: 01/11/2008 11:27 pm »
Quote
Analyst - 11/1/2008  3:51 PM

Many people can't live without an enemy, without something to be afraid of, something to fight. Way too often this something are other people or peoples. I am pretty sure these "China is a threat people" have their own individual profit agenda. The Soviet Union does not serve this agenda any more, nor does Iraq. Iran, well not as much as hoped. But China. Cover and duck. Sad.

Analyst

What's sad is how the people and the government of this country turn a blind eye to China because of the financial benefits of doing so. Open your eyes America. Every time you shop at Walmart you're funding the purchase of Chinese airplanes, ships, and missiles designed for use against our military, and ASAT missiles to knock out our birds. That's what happens when you trade with a communist nation - the money goes straight to the state, which happens to own the companies you're trading with.

How we ever got to the point where we're chummy with a communist nation that stands against everything America stands for is what's really sad. As long as we can use them for financing our debt, bailing out our banks, and making us cheap goods, who cares what their motives are. We'll just keep our heads in the sand.

Offline Blackstar

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #7 on: 01/12/2008 12:08 am »
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Stevo - 11/1/2008  6:27 PM
That's what happens when you trade with a communist nation - the money goes straight to the state, which happens to own the companies you're trading with.

How we ever got to the point where we're chummy with a communist nation that stands against everything America stands for is what's really sad. As long as we can use them for financing our debt, bailing out our banks, and making us cheap goods, who cares what their motives are. We'll just keep our heads in the sand.

A-The money does not go straight to the state.  Many Chinese industries are not government owned.

B-Isn't the reverse also true?  In other words, the fact that they depend on _us_ to buy their stuff makes them less likely to want to get us really mad.  It's called mutual dependency.

Offline meiza

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #8 on: 01/12/2008 12:11 am »
You could campaign for an import tax for nondemocratic countries.

Offline Analyst

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #9 on: 01/12/2008 07:39 am »
Stevo, you partly prove me right: The real danger from China is economic, not military.

But why do you assume China will be a military threat for the US? Because the US acted this way since WWII (ask Iraq twice, or Iran, Vietnam, Lybia …, but not North Korea lately)? Nuclear powers don’t go to war with each other.

Analyst

Offline mikes

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #10 on: 01/12/2008 09:50 am »
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/01/inside-the-ch-1.html

Quote
first launch against a Lacrosse signals intelligence satellite
I was under the impression Lacrosse is a radar imaging sat. Is it SIGINT as well?

Offline Analyst

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #11 on: 01/12/2008 11:32 am »
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mikes - 12/1/2008  11:50 AM

I was under the impression Lacrosse is a radar imaging sat. Is it SIGINT as well?

Only NRO knows. It could have secondary SIGNIT payload(s).

This whole article reminds me of the doomsday studies by several think tanks during the cold war. Pointless, because in these scenarios it doesn't matter who has more nukes left in the end. Yes, this party can then claim victory, but at what price?

Again, this article is pointless. Well, not for the ones who want to sell more satellites, rapid response launch vehicles etc. Could be a nice business case. Fear almost always works.

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Offline daver

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #12 on: 01/12/2008 03:01 pm »
There have been two world wars in the last 100 years.  In my opion Ronald Reagan prevented or at least delayed a third.  Evil exist and we better be prepared to fight it.  I'll throw a couple bumper stickers in "Peace thru strength", "If you want peace, prepare for war".  

  I want to agree with meiza, we do need a tax on goods coming from nondemocratic countries.  

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #13 on: 01/12/2008 03:37 pm »
Having read both articles now, I find them rather schizophrenic.  There are some dumb errors, but the author also seems to have applied some reasonable analysis to the subject.  But what I find odd is that he assumes a capability that he never explains, and that has not been proven.  

The Chinese tested their ASAT against a low-altitude target.  But the author frequently discusses using ASATs against medium and high-altitude targets, but never notes that the Chinese have not demonstrated such a capability.

I'm not very familiar with the physics of kinetic kill ASATs, but I'm not sure that it is safe to assume--as Fordren does--that because they have the capability to hit a low-altitude target, they automatically have the capability to hit a high-altitude target.  It is worth noting that in all the years that the US and Soviet Union tested and operated ASATs, they never once tried for high-altitude shots.  This could be due to a lot of reasons, but it seems to imply that the physics are at least somewhat more challenging.

Offline hesidu

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #14 on: 01/12/2008 04:09 pm »
Quote
Stevo - 12/1/2008  7:27 AM
What's sad is how the people and the government of this country turn a blind eye to China because of the financial benefits of doing so. Open your eyes America. Every time you shop at Walmart you're funding the purchase of Chinese airplanes, ships, and missiles designed for use against our military, and ASAT missiles to knock out our birds. That's what happens when you trade with a communist nation - the money goes straight to the state, which happens to own the companies you're trading with.

How we ever got to the point where we're chummy with a communist nation that stands against everything America stands for is what's really sad. As long as we can use them for financing our debt, bailing out our banks, and making us cheap goods, who cares what their motives are. We'll just keep our heads in the sand.
US import goods from China to help China's economy booming. Than China's economy can support it's military buildup. On the other hand, US has the world's largest debt, but still spent so much money on military. China is US's largest debt owner. China lent huge amount of money to a contry which may go to war with it. What a capital world, but I like it. It means the political leaders in these two contries are more care about economy, not wargame.

Offline khallow

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #15 on: 01/12/2008 05:40 pm »
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Analyst - 12/1/2008  12:39 AM

Stevo, you partly prove me right: The real danger from China is economic, not military.

But why do you assume China will be a military threat for the US? Because the US acted this way since WWII (ask Iraq twice, or Iran, Vietnam, Lybia …, but not North Korea lately)? Nuclear powers don’t go to war with each other.

Actually, they do. There's numerous examples of the US and the USSR fighting each other. They just did it through proxies. I don't see the US and China shooting down each other's satellites, but I can see a proxy doing that.
Karl Hallowell

Offline edkyle99

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #16 on: 01/12/2008 07:34 pm »
Quote
khallow - 12/1/2008  12:40 PM

Quote
Analyst - 12/1/2008  12:39 AM

Stevo, you partly prove me right: The real danger from China is economic, not military.

But why do you assume China will be a military threat for the US? Because the US acted this way since WWII (ask Iraq twice, or Iran, Vietnam, Lybia …, but not North Korea lately)? Nuclear powers don’t go to war with each other.

Actually, they do. There's numerous examples of the US and the USSR fighting each other. They just did it through proxies. I don't see the US and China shooting down each other's satellites, but I can see a proxy doing that.

Not to mention that China and the U.S. actually fought each other in Korea - a fight that neither side was able to win decisively.  Korea and Taiwan are two places where it is entirely conceivable that the U.S. and China could become militarily entangled again.  If that were to happen, space could become one of the battle fronts of the war.  We all hope that nothing like this ever happens, but it is prudent to plan for it.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline MartianBase

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #17 on: 01/13/2008 05:39 am »
Quote
edkyle99 - 11/1/2008  9:29 AM


It is a flawed analysis based on that incorrect assumption.  Perhaps China could knock out many more GPS satellites than assumed.

 - Ed Kyle

Don't they have a number of subs ?
and those mobile launchers ? You see them at parades, a missile made to be launched from an artillery truck like the Ruskies did

Quote
edkyle99 - 12/1/2008  2:34 PM



Not to mention that China and the U.S. actually fought each other in Korea - a fight that neither side was able to win decisively.  Korea and Taiwan are two places where it is entirely conceivable that the U.S. and China could become militarily entangled again.


Don't see it ever happening, unless some idiot Ayatollah takes power in Bejing or some Doomdays Christian takes over the Whitehouse. The communists have a really poor human rights record, but they are still sane people and what they do does have a strange sense of logic to it. Korea was one of those things that had to happen with the US and the West wanting to contain the growing communist block. Another thing that we tend to overlook is that the Chinese do have legitimate claim to Taiwan, Nixon made it even more legit when America support the One-China policy. We will only defend Taiwan if the communists take it back by force, a unification by peaceful means is something we do support. From the Chinese perspective going to war in Korea was perfectly rational, let's be fair to them for a second and say America was pushing and shoving right on its doorstep. If the view had been switched and let's say Soviets landed in Canada during the 60s or Cubans invaded Mexico I doubt very much America would stand for this kind of situation on our home turf.
The strategic situation changed greatly in late 60s and 70s, with China developing its own ICBMs and Nukes, since then we could never fight each other directly because although America is the strongest military on the planet, the winner would only own a cities filled with empty radioactive craters. Reagan, Gorbachev, Kennedy...all understood the stupidity of 'winning' a war when the cost in blood would be millions of your own people, radiated cities and pluge the world economies into a great depression. As arrogant and radical as North Korea's KimJong sounds during those communist marches, he ain't insane. He knows their is a barrier that can't be crossed, and he is slowly starting to disarm his nuclear program. China is a more open and captialist market these days and they stopped supporting Korea's KimgJong when he blew the nuke.. As for those kamikaze Islamic Jihadists, I don't think they are so sane. MAD won't work for them when 40 virgins are waiting for the Islamic nutbag on a one way ticket to martyrdom.

Offline Blackstar

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #18 on: 01/13/2008 01:59 pm »
Quote
MartianBase - 13/1/2008  12:39 AM
Don't they have a number of subs ?
and those mobile launchers ? You see them at parades, a missile made to be launched from an artillery truck like the Ruskies did

I presume you mean ballistic missile submarines?  

They have at least two, possibly three.  One of them is useless.  They have launched at least one more modern one.  But we have no estimate of its capabilities.

Offline edkyle99

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #19 on: 01/13/2008 04:10 pm »
Quote
MartianBase - 13/1/2008  12:39 AM

Don't they have a number of subs ?
and those mobile launchers ? You see them at parades, a missile made to be launched from an artillery truck like the Ruskies did

edkyle99 - 12/1/2008  2:34 PM

China's ASAT test was most likely performed by a modified intermediate range ballistic missile launched from a mobile transporter.  The submarine fleet is equipped with missiles of essentially the same type, although not thought to be ASAT capable.  

Quote
Don't see it (war with China) ever happening ...
The strategic situation changed greatly in late 60s and 70s, with China developing its own ICBMs and Nukes, since then we could never fight each other directly ...

The Korean War was fought with the atomic bomb hanging over all decisions.  The U.S. actually sent a B-29 bomber wing armed with A-bombs to Guam and was preparing to use it.  Truman changed his mind under pressure from other world leaders, along with the fact that A-bomb capable Stalin was supporting China at the time (there were Russian pilots in some of those MIGs).  

Still, despite the fact that the then-world's only two nuclear-capable superpowers were involved, the ugly conventional Korean War continued for years.  It started because North Korea, China, and Russia misinterpreted U.S. intentions about defending the Korean Peninsula.  Similar mistakes are all too possible in the future.

As for the current Islamist War, I thought that last weekend's Presidential debate was telling.  Candidate Clinton, clearly talking about Pakistan, said that states who harbored non-state parties responsible for a nuclear attack against the U.S. would themselves be subject to a U.S. military response.  World War III is still possible.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline meiza

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #20 on: 01/13/2008 04:22 pm »
AFAIK Saddam's attack to Kuwait was done on the mistaken assumption that USA wouldn't do anything, if one wants to look at more closer history examples of failed diplomacy.

Offline kevin-rf

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #21 on: 01/13/2008 09:05 pm »
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MartianBase - 13/1/2008  1:39 AM


Don't see it ever happening, unless some idiot Ayatollah takes power in Bejing or some Doomdays Christian takes over the Whitehouse.

One of sad side effects of "One Child" is it throws the girl boy ratio out of kilter. This will have long term effects (most likely bad) on Chinese politics and how "adventurous" they decide to become. China will have millions of extra males to integrate into the armed forces. China will not be stable in the long run.

Someone once made an interesting point to me, it took the slaughter of a whole generation of males at there own hands to make the Germans and French into the peace loving societies they are today.  

It will be interesting to see if China becomes more agressive as it ages rapidly thanks to "One Child".
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #22 on: 01/14/2008 12:16 am »
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kevin-rf - 13/1/2008  10:05 PM
{snip}

It will be interesting to see if China becomes more agressive as it ages rapidly thanks to "One Child".

The Chinese 'One Child' policy biased towards boys always reminds me of the founding of Rome and the story of the Rape of the Sabine Women.  When entire regiments only hope of getting a wife is to steal one then war can be expected.

Offline madscientist197

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #23 on: 01/14/2008 09:31 am »
Apparently there are currently about 117 males to every 100 females in China - so that's many tens of millions of unhappy guys.
John

Offline Analyst

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #24 on: 01/14/2008 12:08 pm »
I wanted to response here, but this thread only makes me sick. Fear is all arround. And you are the good guys. Please enter your nuclear bunkers. Or better destroy the world so you too are dead and nothing of this matters anymore (not that everything matters, but this is another story) :(

Analyst

Offline hesidu

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #25 on: 01/14/2008 08:22 pm »
I think China has more reason to freak out than US. China has yet to demostrate the possible ability to destory a satellite in orbit, but US has done that much more times. US has many military allies all around the world, and has much more military strength than China. US is the only country which has throw bomb to other countries and killed many innocent people in recent years. US has militay base around China and calling China a threat. This is just like some strong guy hanging around you house carrying a gun, and calling you are a threat. And this guy always do what he think is right and don't listen to others. So what do you think you should do ?

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #26 on: 01/14/2008 08:37 pm »
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hesidu - 14/1/2008  4:22 PM

I think China has more reason to freak out than US. China has yet to demostrate the possible ability to destory a satellite in orbit, but US has done that much more times.

So the shoot down of a chinese weather satelite by china was not an ASAT test, just the chinese forgot to check and make sure they did not have one of there own birds over head when they tested there missile?

When was the last US ASAT test? Nineteen eighty what?... How few has the US carried out? Is the old system anything more than a museum piece? Actually the people that have blown up the most in orbit are the former soviets...

Need we go on?

I do think we are over reacting to china, but at the same time we should not say the chinese behavior last year that endangers all LEO sats is in anyway acceptable. It is not. Condoning that behavior is like saying I beat my wife because someone on the street wistled at her.
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #27 on: 01/14/2008 08:49 pm »
Quote
hesidu - 14/1/2008  3:22 PM

I think China has more reason to freak out than US. China has yet to demostrate the possible ability to destory a satellite in orbit, but US has done that much more times. US has many military allies all around the world, and has much more military strength than China. US is the only country which has throw bomb to other countries and killed many innocent people in recent years. US has militay base around China and calling China a threat. This is just like some strong guy hanging around you house carrying a gun, and calling you are a threat. And this guy always do what he think is right and don't listen to others. So what do you think you should do ?

First of all, China *did* demonstrate an ability to destroy a satellite in orbit, replicating tests performed by the USSR and the US years ago.  

Second, don't you read news?  The U.S. is not the only one to "throw bomb" in recent years!  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11,_2001_attacks
http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/africa/12/02/kenya.probe/index.html
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4733944
http://www.citymayors.com/news/london_attack.html

Finally, you have to read history to understand why the U.S. is where it is, especially in the Pacific.  The last time the U.S. maintained a "low profile" in the Pacific, it was attacked (Pearl Harbor/Manila, etc) with horrific results, triggering a war with vastly more horrific results for all involved.  U.S. planning is centered on preventing a recurrence.  

 - Ed Kyle

Offline Blackstar

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #28 on: 01/14/2008 09:03 pm »
Quote
Analyst - 14/1/2008  7:08 AM

I wanted to response here, but this thread only makes me sick. Fear is all arround. And you are the good guys. Please enter your nuclear bunkers. Or better destroy the world so you too are dead and nothing of this matters anymore (not that everything matters, but this is another story) :(

The more of your posts I read, the more I realize that I don't really need to read them...

Offline hesidu

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #29 on: 01/14/2008 10:41 pm »
No! I'm not saying ASAT test is acceptable. I'm just saying there may be some reason for China to do something unacceptable.

Offline khallow

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #30 on: 01/16/2008 06:13 pm »
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hesidu - 14/1/2008  1:22 PM

I think China has more reason to freak out than US. China has yet to demostrate the possible ability to destory a satellite in orbit, but US has done that much more times. US has many military allies all around the world, and has much more military strength than China. US is the only country which has throw bomb to other countries and killed many innocent people in recent years. US has militay base around China and calling China a threat. This is just like some strong guy hanging around you house carrying a gun, and calling you are a threat. And this guy always do what he think is right and don't listen to others. So what do you think you should do ?

Or maybe this strong guy is a police officer, operating fully within the law, and you are misinterpreting his actions. This is incidentally a common view in the US, perceiving it as the "police officer" of the world. My point here is that there are rival viewpoints. Frankly, I think the talk of the "coming space war" is well overblown.

But here's my problem with the whole thing. I believe a government's legitimacy comes solely from its citizens. And that there has to be a well regulated, open means by which those citizens approve the actions of the government. In the US, this is done at the federal level via elections of both the entire legislative branch and the head of state, the President, and his back up, the Vice President. Further, there needs to be a strong degree of openness in the government. The citizens must know who made what major decisions, and what the government is actually doing both in expenditures and in activities. In the US, this often is obscured illegitimately either through an opaque bureaucratic morass or the misuse of important exceptions like "national security" to hide information.

In the case of China's decision to test an anti-satellite weapon, there are several things apparent to me. First, they do not have what I'd consider a legitimate way to select the highest leaders and the people who create law in that country. Their citizens haven't endorsed the current government in any substantial way. Second, while one doesn't expect complete transparency in matters of national defense, I doubt anyone knows who authorized this ASAT test and whether they will do so again. This is reasonable information to expect since an ASAT test endangers a lot of valuable equipment in orbit.

Finally, I see no indication that China would ever pay indemities in case they did damage someone's satellite as a result of such a test. Maybe China could be forced to pay by the WTO, I don't know. Obviously, the US government has shirked similar payments, but at least one can sue the government in court for redress or openly protest its policies, though the government often is protected from compensating for the harm it does.
Karl Hallowell

Offline hesidu

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #31 on: 01/16/2008 08:46 pm »
First, I don't think USA is accepted by the countries in the world as a "police officer".
Second, I think you are right.  The government's legitimacy should comes from the citizens. And the openess in the government and military is important.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #32 on: 01/16/2008 10:39 pm »
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khallow - 16/1/2008  2:13 PM
 I doubt anyone knows who authorized this ASAT test and whether they will do so again. This is reasonable information to expect since an ASAT test endangers a lot of valuable equipment in orbit.

Let me share an interesting water cooler conversation I had two weeks after the test. I was talking to head of sales for a company that makes high end large format research grade CCD cameras (ones that require an export license). He was a little annoyed that he had just received a request for quote on a dozen or so of these cameras from china. They had even put on the export license application "for tracking orbital debris". His reaction was along the lines of fat chance they will ever get a license for those cameras.

Some one was scrambling after the test. Really comes across as who ever conducted the test did not do all there home work. Casts some serious doubt that on how much planning went into the test. Kinda makes me wonder how much control the goverment really has over the military.

btw. Several non US vendors make similar cameras, I am sure they bought them from one of those non US manufactures.  

hesidu, I'll leave you with a parting shot. If china was justified in shooting down a sat because of fear of the US, is Japan justified in invading china because it needs natural resources?
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Offline daver

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #33 on: 01/17/2008 01:00 am »
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Analyst - 14/1/2008  7:08 AM

I wanted to response here, but this thread only makes me sick. Fear is all arround. And you are the good guys. Please enter your nuclear bunkers. Or better destroy the world so you too are dead and nothing of this matters anymore (not that everything matters, but this is another story) :(

Analyst

   I've thought about this post for the last couple of days.  My first thought is maybe you should read a history book.  To assume that our satellites will never be attacked is naive.  I would hope that smart people that design and build our military satellites have built in some kind of defense.  Now, I'm going to go in the back yard and make sure my wife is still digging our bunker. :bleh:

Offline kevin-rf

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #34 on: 01/17/2008 01:27 am »
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daver - 16/1/2008  9:00 PM
 Now, I'm going to go in the back yard and make sure my wife is still digging our bunker. :bleh:

How did that work? When I tried that my wife looked and just laughed...

Guess I'll just have to dig my own :(

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Offline Analyst

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #35 on: 01/17/2008 06:57 am »
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daver - 17/1/2008  3:00 AM

Quote
Analyst - 14/1/2008  7:08 AM

I wanted to response here, but this thread only makes me sick. Fear is all arround. And you are the good guys. Please enter your nuclear bunkers. Or better destroy the world so you too are dead and nothing of this matters anymore (not that everything matters, but this is another story) :(

Analyst

   I've thought about this post for the last couple of days.  My first thought is maybe you should read a history book.  To assume that our satellites will never be attacked is naive.

The likelihood of this to happen is extremly small. The Chinese are no fools nor do they want to die. And if it ever does, you lose a satellite or two and can fight back with all military power you have. And you have more than enough. I ask a question: Should every country without nuclear weapons live in fear because some countries have these weapons? I don't think so.

Analyst

Offline Space Possum

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #36 on: 01/17/2008 04:39 pm »
Another angle to consider is an asymmetrical conflict, the type that causes nightmares for military planners.
Imagine some sort of confrontation in the western Pacific-Korea-Taiwan area. U.S. and Allied forces are in position pre-staged in case actual fighting breaks out with a vast array of high tech gadgets (UAV's surveillance platforms etc).
For whatever reason, China decides to make a move toward Taiwan. They, or a willing accomplice  
(N. Korea?) launch a (relatively small) nuclear weapon out of the atmosphere and detonate it above the gathered allies. The Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) fries all of those fancy gadgets leaving them in effect blind and unable to communicate. The Chinese weapon systems are relatively less sophisticated and less vulnerable to EMP.
The blast would cause no injuries to people on the ground and that creates another situation. How would the Allies justify military action when they have suffered no casualties?
The world press, ever ready to slam the U.S. would create an uproar against the "evil agressors" of the U.S. and its allies and praise the "enlightened and humane" actions by the Chinese as they "bloodlessly" take what they claim is theirs.
This scenario is of course a simplification, but it is something to think about. I just hope someone on our side has!

Offline khallow

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #37 on: 01/17/2008 05:59 pm »
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Space Possum - 17/1/2008  9:39 AM

Another angle to consider is an asymmetrical conflict, the type that causes nightmares for military planners.
Imagine some sort of confrontation in the western Pacific-Korea-Taiwan area. U.S. and Allied forces are in position pre-staged in case actual fighting breaks out with a vast array of high tech gadgets (UAV's surveillance platforms etc).
For whatever reason, China decides to make a move toward Taiwan. They, or a willing accomplice  
(N. Korea?) launch a (relatively small) nuclear weapon out of the atmosphere and detonate it above the gathered allies. The Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) fries all of those fancy gadgets leaving them in effect blind and unable to communicate. The Chinese weapon systems are relatively less sophisticated and less vulnerable to EMP.
The blast would cause no injuries to people on the ground and that creates another situation. How would the Allies justify military action when they have suffered no casualties?
The world press, ever ready to slam the U.S. would create an uproar against the "evil agressors" of the U.S. and its allies and praise the "enlightened and humane" actions by the Chinese as they "bloodlessly" take what they claim is theirs.
This scenario is of course a simplification, but it is something to think about. I just hope someone on our side has!

There are several things to keep in mind. First, if US claims to extensive EMP hardening are correct, this won't have much effect on US forces. I'd go as far as to say that any such device denoted near China would probably do more harm to China and neighboring countries than to US military forces. Second, it is a foolish escalation of hostility with a nuclear power and probably would trigger a nuclear response from the US. Third, by this point, world opinion will matter little. Anyone who has built the significant nuclear arsenals that these countries have, has commited to ignoring world opinion (and indeed substantial harm to innocent third parties) past a certain point of escalation.

As a result, I don't see the benefit to China of pursuing this course of action. Especially, when there are lower risk and far more sure means of getting what they want.
Karl Hallowell

Offline Analyst

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RE: China and the Coming Space War
« Reply #38 on: 01/28/2008 12:28 pm »
A very balanced and realistic article:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1049/1

Nice read for the hardliners too.

Analyst

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