SpaceX F9 : USA 328-331 / Globalstar FM15 : SLC-40 : 19 June 2022 (04:27 UTC)

[Ken the Bin]

L-3 weather forecast.  70% 'Go' for both June 19 and June 20.  Booster Recovery Weather risk is Low-Moderate for June 19.  All other Additional Risk Criteria are Low.

[Chinakpradhan]

Isn't it unusual that it's a few days away from launch and we still don't know the name of the primary payload? Even Zuma was leaked a month ahead. Either SpaceX really up the game in terms of infosec, or people just don't care anymore (oh well it's another launch of the week...)

Maybe because Globalstar sat is finally the only payload. It seems the US gov payload is based on nothing real, just speculation based on the fact there was no other information available.

then why an asds recovery??

[Bean Kenobi]

Isn't it unusual that it's a few days away from launch and we still don't know the name of the primary payload? Even Zuma was leaked a month ahead. Either SpaceX really up the game in terms of infosec, or people just don't care anymore (oh well it's another launch of the week...)

Maybe because Globalstar sat is finally the only payload. It seems the US gov payload is based on nothing real, just speculation based on the fact there was no other information available.

then why an asds recovery??

I know this, and I don't know why the ASDS... but this is only known facts, and as far as we know US Gov payload isn't a fact for the moment.

[zubenelgenubi]

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated June 16, clarifies the launch time to 04:27 UTC.

[PreferToLurk]

Maybe because Globalstar sat is finally the only payload. It seems the US gov payload is based on nothing real, just speculation based on the fact there was no other information available.

then why an asds recovery??

I know this, and I don't know why the ASDS... but this is only known facts, and as far as we know US Gov payload isn't a fact for the moment.

ASDS is a very important known fact.  SpaceX is not going to spend the cash to send out the ASDS if it is not needed. If it was only Globalstar, that F9 would be landing back at the cape. Maybe it's not a US gov payload, but something is on this mission that is adding mass which has not been disclosed.

[Star One]

Maybe because Globalstar sat is finally the only payload. It seems the US gov payload is based on nothing real, just speculation based on the fact there was no other information available.

then why an asds recovery??

I know this, and I don't know why the ASDS... but this is only known facts, and as far as we know US Gov payload isn't a fact for the moment.

ASDS is a very important known fact.  SpaceX is not going to spend the cash to send out the ASDS if it is not needed. If it was only Globalstar, that F9 would be landing back at the cape. Maybe it's not a US gov payload, but something is on this mission that is adding mass which has not been disclosed.

Could it only be disclosed after launch. Has this happened before with a national security launch?

[wannamoonbase]

Maybe because Globalstar sat is finally the only payload. It seems the US gov payload is based on nothing real, just speculation based on the fact there was no other information available.

then why an asds recovery??

I know this, and I don't know why the ASDS... but this is only known facts, and as far as we know US Gov payload isn't a fact for the moment.

ASDS is a very important known fact.  SpaceX is not going to spend the cash to send out the ASDS if it is not needed. If it was only Globalstar, that F9 would be landing back at the cape. Maybe it's not a US gov payload, but something is on this mission that is adding mass which has not been disclosed.

I don't expect a camera view of the payload or fairing separation.  They'll say it's by customer request, but we'll be seeing a mostly Stage 1 centric flight.  (That's my 2 cent prediction)

[Chinakpradhan]

Maybe because Globalstar sat is finally the only payload. It seems the US gov payload is based on nothing real, just speculation based on the fact there was no other information available.

then why an asds recovery??

I know this, and I don't know why the ASDS... but this is only known facts, and as far as we know US Gov payload isn't a fact for the moment.

ASDS is a very important known fact.  SpaceX is not going to spend the cash to send out the ASDS if it is not needed. If it was only Globalstar, that F9 would be landing back at the cape. Maybe it's not a US gov payload, but something is on this mission that is adding mass which has not been disclosed.

that might be the case

[zubenelgenubi]

We should be able to deduce more when the NOTAMs and/or NOTMARs are published.

The amateur astronomer satellite watchers, both optical and radio, will provide their observations and analysis as well.

[Conexion Espacial]

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1537903555666817025

[LH2NHI]

Isn't it unusual that it's a few days away from launch and we still don't know the name of the primary payload? Even Zuma was leaked a month ahead. Either SpaceX really up the game in terms of infosec, or people just don't care anymore (oh well it's another launch of the week...)

Maybe because Globalstar sat is finally the only payload. It seems the US gov payload is based on nothing real, just speculation based on the fact there was no other information available.

then why an asds recovery??

I know this, and I don't know why the ASDS... but this is only known facts, and as far as we know US Gov payload isn't a fact for the moment.

The lightness of Globalstar-FM15 and the need to use ASDS suggest that a private payload has been added.
If the private mission is not a military mission, could it be a SpaceX internal mission?

For example, Starship's TPS experiment re-entry vehicle
or the larger Starlink V2 Mass / Electrical Simulator
or Starlink V2 dispenser prototype
 and so on.

Is it possible to exclude this possibility from the presence or absence of FCC application?
If they are only using second-stage telemetry for such tests, is it impossible to make a distinction in the FCC application?

[Zed_Noir]

It could be some kind of feint against the usual suspects by the spooks with this launch. Put a disguised stripped down satellite propulsion bus with attitude control and communication systems on the upper stage as a fake NRO surveillance satellite. It is just pocket change for the spooks to pay SpaceX to send an ASDS barge out on a decoy mission.

This nutty theory could explain all the abnormalities for this launch. Especially if SpaceX don't stream visuals of the payload on top of the upper stage for this launch. 

[Raul]

LHA map for #Globalstar FM15 from CCSFS SLC-40 NET 19 Jun 04:27 UTC, alternatively 20 to 25 Jun based on issued NOTMAR/NOTAMs. B1061.9 planned landing and roughly estimated fairing recovery approx. 655km downrange. Stage2 debris reentry in Pacific Ocean. http://bit.do/LHA18

https://twitter.com/Raul74Cz/status/1538182168475799553

[Rondaz]

And that's the whole weird thing about this launch. ASDS landing, but a single Globalstar satellite only weighs 700kg. Another secret satellite has to be on board.

https://twitter.com/GewoonLukas_/status/1538182757544873986

[crandles57]

Are TLEs released for this and/or SARah-1 launch?
Will that tell us how many satellites?

(presumably doesn't tell us if there is something that stays attached to the Globalstar sat.)

[kdhilliard]

Even the 45th Weather Squadron is acting mysteriously.  They still haven't released a forecast since Thursday's L-3 report (70% GO / Low-Moderate booster recovery weather risk), despite it saying the next forecast would be released on Friday.

[RocketLover0119]

Mission patch and timeline.

3 (?!?!?) second stage burns

[Conexion Espacial]

SpaceX livestream

[JayWee]

3 (?!?!?) second stage burns

How well does the launch azimuth match the target orbit?
Couldn't the ASDS landing be the result of a severe dogleg akin to IXPE? (325kg, but 653 km downrange ASDS)

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Photos from SpaceX website