Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : Starlink Group 4-4 : VSFB SLC-4E : 18 December 2021 (12:41 UTC)  (Read 71183 times)

Offline Alexphysics

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I can confirm this is Group 2-3 as gongora pointed out. 2-2 is flying from Florida

FWIW, Starlink Group 2-2 is still from Florida as of a few days ago. Not sure why it was delayed to fly after 4-1 but I sure hope it's not for the same reason this mission was delayed too  : (

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post:
Not a big surprise, but I appreciate them reaching the same conclusions as us.

(This is beyond the Florida Starlink launch confirmed for December 1.)

SFN, SpaceX is about to break its own annual launch record, dated November 17

Quote
The schedule in December could have room for two more Starlink launches — one from California and one from Florida. But SpaceX typically does not reveal schedules for its Starlink missions until weeks, or even days, before the launch date.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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I wonder when this will launch--limiting parameter is turning around the recovery fleet after DART, or turning around the launch complex?



Vandenberg SFB launch schedule for the immediate future:
2021 Launched:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

December 18 late summer? NET Aug Sept NET Oct mid 17 TBD NET Nov NET Dec NET 17 17 - Starlink 4-4 2-2 2-3 (x52 x51) (flight 33? 31 TBD/high-inclination flight 2) [v1.5 L4? v2.0 L2 L-TBD] - Falcon 9-132 127? TBD 134? (1051.11? 1051.11? 1049.11? S) - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 12:41:40 ~15:30 ~17:00 17:34 TBD ~08:30 to 14:10 ~08:40 to 14:10 09:46:20 09:24:40 or
(mid-inclination Starlink: launch 20-22 minutes earlier/day)

2022 Scheduled:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

NET mid January NET Sept 2021 Oct 2021 NET Nov 2021 NET Dec 2021 - Starlink TBD 2-3 2-TBD (x51?) (flight TBD/polar flight 1? high-inclination flight 3) [v1.5 TBD v2.0 L3 L-TBD] - Falcon 9 (1051.12? 1063.4? S) - Vandenberg SLC-4E

February NET Jun 2021/NLT Dec 2021 NET 2022 Feb ~Feb 2 - NROL-87 - Falcon 9 (1063.4? L?) - Vandenberg SLC-4E

TBD NET May 2021 late 2021 NET Dec 2021 NET Jan 31, 2022 late Jan - ALS mission 1: Carbonite 4 (CBNT 4), GENESIS-G & J, QUBIK-3/4/5/6, Sapling-1, Spinnaker 3 - Firefly Alpha (FLTA002) - Vandenberg SLC-2W

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zubenelgenubi
« Last Edit: 01/15/2022 09:26 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Starlink 2-3
This could be/should be? the next Falcon 9 Vandenberg launch.  We never found out during the October 17 launch campaign if there would be a Static Fire.

Will there be a Static Fire before the Starlink 2-3 Starlink 2-2 launch from Vandenberg?

[First stage] is 1051.11.

If it's yet another booster [not 1049 nor 1063], transported from elsewhere, then I expect [a Static Fire] to ensure its proper function after said transport.
Edit: 1051 arrived at VSFB circa September 1.

I could be wrong about a static fire as a SpaceX SOP after cross-country road transport.

[Edit Dec 5: I split/merged this post to the launch thread.

It could successfully static fire one day, with payload under fairing attached, and launch the next.]
« Last Edit: 12/05/2021 04:26 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Online vaporcobra

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I wonder when this will launch--limiting parameter is turning around the recovery fleet after DART, or turning around the launch complex?

SpaceX's fastest SLC-4E turnaround is 36 days, so the NET for this launch without setting a new record is already December 30th! If everything is relatively normal (i.e. no surprise trip to Mexico), recovery fleet turnaround should take no more than a week or two. I'd put the realistic NET firmly in the last full week of December.

Offline crandles57

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I wonder when this will launch--limiting parameter is turning around the recovery fleet after DART, or turning around the launch complex?

SpaceX's fastest SLC-4E turnaround is 36 days, so the NET for this launch without setting a new record is already December 30th! If everything is relatively normal (i.e. no surprise trip to Mexico), recovery fleet turnaround should take no more than a week or two. I'd put the realistic NET firmly in the last full week of December.

36 days is a while ago: 22 Feb 2018 Paz to 30 March 2018 Iridium Next 5
8 Iridium flights took two years when aiming for a launch every 2 months. 4 other Vandenberg launches in that 2 year period. So could well be payload availability meaning that launch every 2 months keeps up with demand so 36 days happened to be shortest without any need to try out shorter launch turnaround periods.

More recently
https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/07/27/spacex-to-begin-launching-new-generation-of-starlink-satellites-next-month/
Quote
SpaceX is expected to launch an average of one Starlink mission per month from Vandenberg over the next year

If there are also other launches from Vandenberg (and above is honest assessment even if haven't kept up so far) then this suggests that the minimum launch turnaround period could (must?) be somewhat less than 36 days.

Online Elthiryel

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Next Spaceflight reports it's going to launch NET December 17. Still 1051.11.

https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/6798
« Last Edit: 12/09/2021 08:32 am by Elthiryel »
GO for launch, GO for age of reflight

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

These two NOTMARs seems to be for this launch - the closure areas and timing seems right for Starlink’s orbit:

NAVAREA XII 696/21(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0824Z TO 1414Z DAILY
   17 AND 18 DEC IN AREA BOUND BY
   34-34N 120-39W, 34-40N 120-39W,
   34-28N 120-12W, 34-08N 119-52W,
   33-16N 119-16W, 30-54N 117-23W,
   30-40N 117-00W, 29-16N 115-56W,
   29-05N 116-14W, 29-53N 117-05W,
   30-42N 117-30W, 33-03N 119-19W,
   34-23N 120-34W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181514Z DEC 21.//


NAVAREA XII 697/21(16,19).
NORTH PACIFIC.
BEARING SEA.
ALASKA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 1023Z TO 1512Z DAILY
   17 AND 18 DEC IN AREA BOUND BY
   49-00N 179-00W, 51-38N 175-30W,
   51-45N 171-45W, 47-00N 159-00W,
   35-00N 141-00W, 32-00N 146-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 181512Z DEC 21.//
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Offline Ken the Bin

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These two NOTMARs seems to be for this launch - the closure areas and timing seems right for Starlink’s orbit:

I saw those, and in fact held them for possible future clarification.  The two notices do seem to be related to each other, but the one for the Bering Sea doesn't seem to fit.  In addition to one for California, I would expect rather one for the Indian Ocean.

I wish they would flag them properly as Rocket Launching and Space Debris when applicable, instead of just generic Hazardous Operations. :(

Offline Rondaz

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Looks like NET Dec. 17 for the next Vandenberg Starlink. The launch was delayed from October. It is expected to feature the first 11th flight of a booster.

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1470246280995631105

Offline crandles57

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NextSpaceFlight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX
reports launch time 08:24UTC

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

NextSpaceFlight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX
reports launch time 08:24UTC

Since I was the one who set it…it’s a NET time based on the marine space closure zones I posted, and the actual time should be some hours later given the window set is 6 hours long.
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Offline ZachS09

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NextSpaceFlight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX
reports launch time 08:24UTC

Since I was the one who set it…it’s a NET time based on the marine space closure zones I posted, and the actual time should be some hours later given the window set is 6 hours long.

When in the window set exactly? I'm trying to look at other NOTAMs listed for previous launches in order to determine a trend between them.
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Offline Ken the Bin

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NextSpaceFlight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX
reports launch time 08:24UTC

Since I was the one who set it…it’s a NET time based on the marine space closure zones I posted, and the actual time should be some hours later given the window set is 6 hours long.

When in the window set exactly? I'm trying to look at other NOTAMs listed for previous launches in order to determine a trend between them.

Good luck with that.  I've been trying for a long time.  The amount of time from the beginning of the hazard window to the targeted launch time can vary from zero minutes up to 1.5 hours.  And it's not necessarily consistent even for the same kind of launch from the same launch pad. :(

Edit: To clarify, I'm referring to NGA marine hazard notices (NOTMARs), not NOTAMs.
« Last Edit: 12/13/2021 01:25 pm by Ken the Bin »

Offline Conexion Espacial

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NextSpaceFlight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX
reports launch time 08:24UTC

Since I was the one who set it…it’s a NET time based on the marine space closure zones I posted, and the actual time should be some hours later given the window set is 6 hours long.

When in the window set exactly? I'm trying to look at other NOTAMs listed for previous launches in order to determine a trend between them.

Good luck with that.  I've been trying for a long time.  The amount of time from the beginning of the hazard window to the targeted launch time can vary from zero minutes up to 1.5 hours.  And it's not necessarily consistent even for the same kind of launch from the same launch pad. :(

Edit: To clarify, I'm referring to NGA marine hazard notices (NOTMARs), not NOTAMs.
Also, let's remember that although NOTMARS and NOTAMS are multi-hour, the launch window for Starlink missions are unique, so SpaceX only has one launch opportunity and that makes guessing the launch time and minute a bit more difficult.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Could be Static Fire time any time now...
BOLO (Be On the LookOut) for a possible SF (Static Fire).
(I know, the geography makes it much more difficult than at Canaveral.)
« Last Edit: 12/15/2021 12:49 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline lenny97


TFR Published, presumably for the mission.
https://tfr.faa.gov/save_pages/detail_1_1399.html
Quote
0839 to 1414 UTC Daily starting December 17 and ending December 21.
1/1399

Offline zubenelgenubi

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NextSpaceFlight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX
reports launch time 08:24UTC

Since I was the one who set it…it’s a NET time based on the marine space closure zones I posted, and the actual time should be some hours later given the window set is 6 hours long.

When in the window set exactly? I'm trying to look at other NOTAMs listed for previous launches in order to determine a trend between them.

Good luck with that.  I've been trying for a long time.  The amount of time from the beginning of the hazard window to the targeted launch time can vary from zero minutes up to 1.5 hours.  And it's not necessarily consistent even for the same kind of launch from the same launch pad. :(

Edit: To clarify, I'm referring to NGA marine hazard notices (NOTMARs), not NOTAMs.
Also, let's remember that although NOTMARS and NOTAMS are multi-hour, the launch window for Starlink missions are unique, so SpaceX only has one launch opportunity and that makes guessing the launch time and minute a bit more difficult.
There could be two or more launch windows within the NOTAM/NOTMARS temporal boundaries.

This early in the process of filling the polar orbital planes (polar flight 2), one argument of perigee could be as useful as another?
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Offline Ken the Bin

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There could be two or more launch windows within the NOTAM/NOTMARS temporal boundaries.

This early in the process of filling the polar orbital planes (polar flight 2), one argument of perigee could be as useful as another?

Yes, the actual launch window may be fairly wide.

My SWAG based on a combination of the notices is targeting ~~~09:09 UTC.  Three ~'s tells you that I don't have a lot of confidence in that.

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