SpaceX F9 : Starlink 4-1 : SLC-40 : November 13, 2021 (12:19 UTC)

[zubenelgenubi]

SpX-23           LC-39A    August 29 UTC
Inspiration4  LC-39A    September 16
Crew-3           LC-39A    November 9? October 30
IXPE               LC-39A    December 9
CSG-2            SLC-40    December 14 November 18
SpX-24           LC-39A    December 21
Turksat 5B     ??             late 2021

We're approaching the end of October, with no announcement of the next Florida Starlink launch. 

There is also a lack of launches assigned to SLC-40.

My hypotheses:
The next Starlink launch will be NET November, or even later.

The first SLC-40 launch in several months will be the CSG-2 launch.

(Edit November 4: SLC-40 is apparently available all November for a Starlink launch, if SpaceX chooses to do so.)

Edited October 31
Edited November 4

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/EmreKelly/status/1456702986281947146

Surprise! Next SpaceX Starlink launch from Florida now slated for Nov. 12 during a 0616 to 0816 ET window. How this interacts with Crew-2 return / Crew-3 launch ... I don't know.

[gongora]

The hazard area in that tweet shows a launch to the NE, so into the 53.2 degree shell.

[zubenelgenubi]

Launch Photography, updated November 5
Starlink 4-1 launch from SLC-40 November 12, 7:12 am = 1212 UTC

Edit/add cross-post:

[TFR] Timing seems also to match ISS launch windows...on Nov. 11 (UTC)...

SFN coverage today:
No direct handover between Crew-2 and Crew-3.

Crew-3 launch November 11, 0203 UTC = November 10, 9:03 pm EST.

Launch date and time also from November 5 update of Launch Photography Viewing Guide.

Approximately 34 hours between launches.

[zubenelgenubi]

I'm sure there are several NSF pairs of eyes 👀 on this...if SpaceX wishes to Static Fire before launch, the LV could transport to the pad soon.

There would also be beauty shot opportunities of both Falcon pads occupied.

[Ken the Bin]

NGA notices with my estimated launch times:

Primary Day = Friday, November 12 at ~12:16 UTC (~07:16 EST).
Backup Day #1 = Saturday, November 13 at ~11:54 UTC (~06:54 EST).
Backup Day #2 = Sunday, November 14 at ~11:32 UTC (~06:32 EST).
Backup Day #3 = Monday, November 15 at ~11:10 UTC (~06:10 EST).
Backup Day #4 = Tuesday, November 16 at ~10:49 UTC (~05:49 EST).
Backup Day #5 = Wednesday, November 17 at ~10:27 UTC (~05:27 EST).
Backup Day #6 = Thursday, November 18 at ~10:06 UTC (~05:06 EST).
Backup Day #7 = Friday, November 19 at ~09:44 UTC (~04:44 EST).

070438Z NOV 21
NAVAREA IV 1014/21(11,12,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   121201Z TO 121348Z NOV, ALTERNATE
   131139Z TO 131326Z, 141127Z TO 141314Z,
   151105Z TO 151252Z, 161044Z TO 161231Z,
   171022Z TO 171209Z, 181001Z TO 181148Z AND
   190939Z TO 191126Z NOV IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-37-13N 080-36-16W, 29-04-00N 080-03-00W,
      29-00-00N 079-56-00W, 28-35-00N 080-22-00W,
      28-29-10N 080-32-24W.
   B. 31-39-00N 077-20-00W, 33-15-00N 075-57-00W,
      33-45-00N 074-46-00W, 33-27-00N 074-14-00W,
      32-33-00N 074-39-00W, 31-25-00N 077-06-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 191226Z NOV 21.

070452Z NOV 21
HYDROPAC 3187/21(76,83).
SOUTH PACIFIC.
NEW ZEALAND.
CHATHAM ISLANDS
DNC 06.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   0121256Z TO 121422Z NOV, ALTERNATE
   131234Z TO 131400Z, 141222Z TO 141348Z,
   151200Z TO 151326Z, 161139Z TO 161305Z,
   171117Z TO 171243Z, 181056Z TO 181222Z
   AND 191034Z TO 191200Z NOV IN AREA BOUND BY
   52-31S 164-40E, 51-47S 165-14E,
   48-35S 174-27E, 42-28S 169-40W,
   29-08S 147-18W, 29-00S 145-40W,
   30-45S 145-40W, 37-59S 151-22W,
   48-55S 169-18W, 53-10S 173-48E,
   53-24S 165-25E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 191300Z NOV 21.

Edit: Fixed my estimated times for Backup Days 6 and 7.

[Orbiter]

It appears the booster is B1062.4, as a fully stacked F9 first (identified as B1062) and second stage was spotted rolling towards SLC-40 a few days ago.

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/qoh0ov/i_saw_a_falcon_9_in_transport_at_the_kennedy/

[zubenelgenubi]

It appears the booster is B1062.4, as a fully stacked F9 first (identified as B1062) and second stage was spotted rolling towards SLC-40 a few days ago.

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/qoh0ov/i_saw_a_falcon_9_in_transport_at_the_kennedy/

Same LV as from this November 4 tweet?

https://twitter.com/chancebelloise/status/1456273334186831883

An incredibly sooty SpaceX Falcon9 just rolled by LCC. Looks like I took lunch at just the right time.

[lenny97]

It appears the booster is B1062.4, as a fully stacked F9 first (identified as B1062) and second stage was spotted rolling towards SLC-40 a few days ago.

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/qoh0ov/i_saw_a_falcon_9_in_transport_at_the_kennedy/

Same LV as from this November 4 tweet?

https://twitter.com/chancebelloise/status/1456273334186831883

An incredibly sooty SpaceX Falcon9 just rolled by LCC. Looks like I took lunch at just the right time.

Yes, it is. 

[Rondaz]

The @SpaceX multi-use support vessel Bob has departed Port Canaveral just now, and is towing droneship A Shortfall of Gravitas (ASOG) to the landing area for the Starlink 4-1 mission on Friday morning.

Fair winds, and following seas, guys and gals!

https://twitter.com/JConcilus/status/1457409334967681025

[Rondaz]

A Shortfall of Gravitas's new tracker working at sea for the first time. Flexed biceps

Hopefully, we will be able to use this to check if ASOG goes autonomous at any point

https://twitter.com/SpaceOffshore/status/1457411213063753731

[realnouns]

https://twitter.com/Raul74Cz/status/1457708359478652932

[StraumliBlight]

Both LaunchPhotography and SpaceFlightNow show the launch time as 12:31 UTC (as of November 7th).

[Ken the Bin]

Both LaunchPhotography and SpaceFlightNow show the launch time as 12:31 UTC (as of November 7th).

I really should have put ~~ on my estimated launch times, rather than just ~.

Using 12:31 as a new anchor, I now have:

Primary Day = Friday, November 12 at ~~12:31 UTC (~~07:31 EST).
Backup Day #1 = Saturday, November 13 at ~~12:09 UTC (~~07:09 EST).
Backup Day #2 = Sunday, November 14 at ~~11:47 UTC (~~06:47 EST).
Backup Day #3 = Monday, November 15 at ~~11:25 UTC (~~06:25 EST).
Backup Day #4 = Tuesday, November 16 at ~~11:04 UTC (~~06:04 EST).
Backup Day #5 = Wednesday, November 17 at ~~10:42 UTC (~~05:42 EST).
Backup Day #6 = Thursday, November 18 at ~~10:21 UTC (~~05:21 EST).
Backup Day #7 = Friday, November 19 at ~~09:59 UTC (~~04:59 EST).

When a weather forecast is issued, that will pretty much nail it down.

[Ken the Bin]

L-3 weather forecast: Friday is 60% 'Go'.  Saturday is 80% 'Go'.  All Additional Risk Criteria are Low except the Booster Recovery Weather for Friday which is Moderate.

Note that the validity period of 12 Nov 2021 / 0701 - 0801L (12/1201 - 1301Z) indicates a launch time of 12:31 UTC (07:31 EST), which is right in the middle of the period.

Edit: Fixed a typo.

[Conexion Espacial]

The Falcon 9 is expected to reach the launch pad sometime today or before noon tomorrow.

[Rondaz]

It seems that the recovery droneships are quite near eachother as Finn and JRTI prep for Crew 3 and Bob and ASOG head out for Starlink. Doug is not far behind on the way for Starlink fairing recovery. Hard to say if ASOG is running solo. I think they are on tow collecting data.

https://twitter.com/julia_bergeron/status/1458110593999724549

[lykos]

What stays 4-1 for?  What  does it mean?

[ZachS09]

What stays 4-1 for?  What does it mean?

I think it's mentioning the type of Starlink constellation these sats belong to (Group 4). In this case, it's the 53.2-degree orbit.

The Group 2 (launched before Inspiration4) refers to the 70-degree polar orbit.

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/TSKelso/status/1458154159073488898

CelesTrak has pre-launch SupTLEs for the #Starlink Group 4-1 launch set for Nov 12 at 1240 UTC of 53 satellites from Cape Canaveral. Deployment is set for 12:55:56.740 UTC, just over 15 minutes after launch.