Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year. I think that would be the upper limit for a long time.
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 02/20/2018 12:26 amHas anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year. I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. Gwynne Shotwell said in a talk recently that their 2018 launch cadence captures slightly over half the commercial market.
QuoteFor @IridiumComm, if @SpaceX launches today OK as planned, the 5th IRDM 10-sat Falcon 9 launch should occur on March 29. Then 6th F9 launch end-April.https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/966668323093086209
For @IridiumComm, if @SpaceX launches today OK as planned, the 5th IRDM 10-sat Falcon 9 launch should occur on March 29. Then 6th F9 launch end-April.
SpaceX was granted two licenses today, one for a launch/landing (mentions recovery boat?) from "Cape Canaveral," NET 04/02/18.https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82665The other is a launch license for Mission 1418 from LC-40, NET 03/30/18. https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82662Even assuming the license windows to be less than deadly accurate, that's an insane schedule for LC-40 alone. Probably just stale dates + vagueness (maybe even a 39A shakedown launch before TESS?), I simply can't see SpaceX actually doing two launches at the same pad in just four days. Only confusing because those dates match up exactly with the current NETs for CRS-14 and Bangabandhu...Edit: Oh god, doesn't even take into account Iridium-5, now NET 03/29/30... three launches in five days would be exciting and impressive as hell, but seems like an insanely aggressive - if not impossible - schedule
I think those two licenses are for the same flight (probably Bangabandhu-1). The schedule at SLC-40 will be very interesting, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Bangabandhu-1 slips behind the NASA launches just because they have more constraints on their launch dates.
The first X in the landings column in the top post should be gray, not orange. It is not a failure when there was no attempt.Also: Are they really going to have a full month gap after the next launch? (Man we've been spoiled lately when I consider that a long gab, but still.)
Quote from: Tass on 02/24/2018 09:39 amThe first X in the landings column in the top post should be gray, not orange. It is not a failure when there was no attempt.Also: Are they really going to have a full month gap after the next launch? (Man we've been spoiled lately when I consider that a long gab, but still.)Special meaning... it was a "failure to expend" in that the core didn't self destruct as planned, and had to be cleaned up later. Go back a few pages in this and the companion format discussion thread, there was a pretty thorough discussion of this. Granted some of it is a bit of geek humor but the marking fits.
So this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-telecoms-mobileworld-moon/moon-to-get-first-mobile-phone-network-idUSKCN1GB27A got posted over on r/spacex earlier today and looks like a new mission for 2019?
A lot of changes recently, here is an updated FPIP.There are no launches scheduled for 39A in March-April, obviously some construction is going on there.So, is there any clue on when the first Falcon from 39A will fly?Will be quite helpfull for this chart
Quote from: Inoeth on 02/27/2018 09:54 pmSo this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-telecoms-mobileworld-moon/moon-to-get-first-mobile-phone-network-idUSKCN1GB27A got posted over on r/spacex earlier today and looks like a new mission for 2019?Should be on a rideshare, maybe one of the Spaceflight GTO missions
I actually think Bangabandhu-1 will launch from LC-39A instead of SLC-40 (based on the fact that I think "Mission 1380" from FCC filings is Bang-1 and not TESS). IMO, that it will likely be the first Block 5 booster launch increases this likelihood. So, the pad stand-down for 39A you're speculating on may not be quite as long as you've currently got it. But, the above is, so far, unconfirmed sleuthing/speculation on my part as well. YMMV.
"Pad work required for block 5" is total speculation, of course
SpaceX open media accreditation for the Falcon 9 Bangabandhu Satellite-1 launch in April... and the launch is from KSC's 39A, which is returning to Falcon 9 duty following the Falcon Heavy launch.HAWTHORNE, Calif. – Mar. 1, 2018. Media accreditation is now open for SpaceX's Bangabandhu Satellite-1 mission from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The launch is targeted for no earlier than April.A Falcon 9 rocket will deliver Bangabandhu Satellite-1 to a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO).