Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 989544 times)

Offline niwax

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #300 on: 02/20/2018 10:51 am »
Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?

I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.

If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.

I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year.  I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. 

Gwynne Shotwell said in a talk recently that their 2018 launch cadence captures slightly over half the commercial market.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #301 on: 02/20/2018 04:45 pm »
Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?

I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.

If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.

I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year.  I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. 

Gwynne Shotwell said in a talk recently that their 2018 launch cadence captures slightly over half the commercial market.

I believe her recent comment was that they won over half of the launches they competed last year (maybe she said both, but only heard the competition bit).
« Last Edit: 02/20/2018 04:47 pm by AncientU »
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #302 on: 02/20/2018 05:36 pm »
This thread is for tracking the actual known missions that make up the manifest.  Let's put aside further discussion of the vague future manifest numbers or launch market share.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #303 on: 02/22/2018 12:45 pm »
Quote
For @IridiumComm, if @SpaceX launches today OK as planned, the 5th IRDM 10-sat Falcon 9 launch should occur on March 29. Then 6th F9 launch end-April.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/966668323093086209

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #304 on: 02/22/2018 12:51 pm »
4 week cadence.  Probably applies to remainder of constellation.
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Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #305 on: 02/22/2018 07:55 pm »
SpaceX was granted two licenses today, one for a launch/landing (mentions recovery boat?) from "Cape Canaveral," NET 04/02/18.
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82665

The other is a launch license for Mission 1418 from LC-40, NET 03/30/18.
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82662

Even assuming the license windows to be less than deadly accurate, that's an insane schedule for LC-40 alone. Probably just stale dates + vagueness (maybe even a 39A shakedown launch before TESS?), I simply can't see SpaceX actually doing two launches at the same pad in just four days. Only confusing because those dates match up exactly with the current NETs for CRS-14 and Bangabandhu...

Edit: Oh god, doesn't even take into account Iridium-5, now NET 03/29/30... three launches in five days would be exciting and impressive as hell, but seems like an insanely aggressive - if not impossible - schedule ;D
« Last Edit: 02/22/2018 08:04 pm by vaporcobra »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #306 on: 02/22/2018 08:06 pm »
SpaceX was granted two licenses today, one for a launch/landing (mentions recovery boat?) from "Cape Canaveral," NET 04/02/18.
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82665

The other is a launch license for Mission 1418 from LC-40, NET 03/30/18.
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82662

Even assuming the license windows to be less than deadly accurate, that's an insane schedule for LC-40 alone. Probably just stale dates + vagueness (maybe even a 39A shakedown launch before TESS?), I simply can't see SpaceX actually doing two launches at the same pad in just four days. Only confusing because those dates match up exactly with the current NETs for CRS-14 and Bangabandhu...

Edit: Oh god, doesn't even take into account Iridium-5, now NET 03/29/30... three launches in five days would be exciting and impressive as hell, but seems like an insanely aggressive - if not impossible - schedule ;D

I think those two licenses are for the same flight (probably Bangabandhu-1).  The schedule at SLC-40 will be very interesting, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Bangabandhu-1 slips behind the NASA launches just because they have more constraints on their launch dates.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #307 on: 02/22/2018 08:12 pm »
I think those two licenses are for the same flight (probably Bangabandhu-1).  The schedule at SLC-40 will be very interesting, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Bangabandhu-1 slips behind the NASA launches just because they have more constraints on their launch dates.

That's the most logical explanation, agreed. They appear to have been filed at the same time, so you're likely correct. Just not like SpaceX to have inconsistent dates for the launch and landing licenses, especially those filed simultaneously... ???

Indeed, the scheduling will be intriguing to watch. Awkward to balance two government payloads :D
« Last Edit: 02/22/2018 08:16 pm by vaporcobra »

Offline Tass

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #308 on: 02/24/2018 09:39 am »
The first X in the landings column in the top post should be gray, not orange. It is not a failure when there was no attempt.

Also: Are they really going to have a full month gap after the next launch? (Man we've been spoiled lately when I consider that a long gab, but still.)

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #309 on: 02/24/2018 12:35 pm »
A lot of changes recently, here is an updated FPIP.
There are no launches scheduled for 39A in March-April, obviously some construction is going on there.
So, is there any clue on when the first Falcon from 39A will fly?
Will be quite helpfull for this chart ;)
« Last Edit: 02/24/2018 12:43 pm by smoliarm »

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #310 on: 02/24/2018 05:34 pm »
The first X in the landings column in the top post should be gray, not orange. It is not a failure when there was no attempt.

Also: Are they really going to have a full month gap after the next launch? (Man we've been spoiled lately when I consider that a long gab, but still.)
Special meaning... it was a "failure to expend" in that the core didn't self destruct as planned, and had to be cleaned up later. Go back a few pages in this and the companion format discussion thread, there was a pretty thorough discussion of this. Granted some of it is a bit of geek humor but the marking fits.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline Tass

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #311 on: 02/25/2018 05:51 pm »
The first X in the landings column in the top post should be gray, not orange. It is not a failure when there was no attempt.

Also: Are they really going to have a full month gap after the next launch? (Man we've been spoiled lately when I consider that a long gab, but still.)
Special meaning... it was a "failure to expend" in that the core didn't self destruct as planned, and had to be cleaned up later. Go back a few pages in this and the companion format discussion thread, there was a pretty thorough discussion of this. Granted some of it is a bit of geek humor but the marking fits.

Ah :) That does make some sense.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #312 on: 02/27/2018 02:52 pm »
SpaceX filed for a couple more FCC launch permits:

Mission 1420 from SLC-4E NET 4/28, should be Iridium 6.  (File Number 0354-EX-ST-2018)
Mission 1465 from SLC-40 NET 4/30, SES-12? (File Number 0355-EX-ST-2018)

No recovery communications permits filed for either yet, but they don't have to be filed at the same time.

Offline Inoeth

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #313 on: 02/27/2018 09:54 pm »
So this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-telecoms-mobileworld-moon/moon-to-get-first-mobile-phone-network-idUSKCN1GB27A got posted over on r/spacex earlier today and looks like a new mission for 2019?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #314 on: 02/27/2018 10:51 pm »
So this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-telecoms-mobileworld-moon/moon-to-get-first-mobile-phone-network-idUSKCN1GB27A got posted over on r/spacex earlier today and looks like a new mission for 2019?

Should be on a rideshare, maybe one of the Spaceflight GTO missions

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #315 on: 02/28/2018 09:41 am »
A lot of changes recently, here is an updated FPIP.
There are no launches scheduled for 39A in March-April, obviously some construction is going on there.
So, is there any clue on when the first Falcon from 39A will fly?
Will be quite helpfull for this chart ;)

I actually think Bangabandhu-1 will launch from LC-39A instead of SLC-40 (based on the fact that I think "Mission 1380" from FCC filings is Bang-1 and not TESS).  IMO, that it will likely be the first Block 5 booster launch increases this likelihood. 

So, the pad stand-down for 39A you're speculating on may not be quite as long as you've currently got it.  But, the above is, so far, unconfirmed sleuthing/speculation on my part as well.  YMMV.
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Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #316 on: 02/28/2018 10:42 am »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Offline cscott

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #317 on: 02/28/2018 02:09 pm »

I actually think Bangabandhu-1 will launch from LC-39A instead of SLC-40 (based on the fact that I think "Mission 1380" from FCC filings is Bang-1 and not TESS).  IMO, that it will likely be the first Block 5 booster launch increases this likelihood. 

So, the pad stand-down for 39A you're speculating on may not be quite as long as you've currently got it.  But, the above is, so far, unconfirmed sleuthing/speculation on my part as well.  YMMV.

This would be consistent with some pad work required to support block 5 and Bangabandhu being the first block 5 launch.  "Pad work required for block 5" is speculation, of course, but nothing that contradicts that has come up so far. As smoliarm's FPIP indicates, Block 4 launches (TESS in particular) would continue at SLC-40 until block 5 has been sufficiently validatated to switch over the SLC-40 GSE to block 5 (at which point no more block 4 cores could fly from the Cape). The prediction would be that CRS-15 would either be a Block 5 or would move to SLC-40.

EDIT: it's "speculation", but no more so than deruch or smoliarm's posts. We're all trying to put clues together to come up with an assignment of cores to dates and pads. Second sentence of OP is "best guess".
« Last Edit: 02/28/2018 02:48 pm by cscott »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #318 on: 02/28/2018 02:33 pm »
"Pad work required for block 5" is total speculation, of course

If it's total speculation then it doesn't belong in this thread.


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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #319 on: 03/01/2018 03:58 pm »
SpaceX open media accreditation for the Falcon 9 Bangabandhu Satellite-1 launch in April... and the launch is from KSC's 39A, which is returning to Falcon 9 duty following the Falcon Heavy launch.

HAWTHORNE, Calif. – Mar. 1, 2018. Media accreditation is now open for SpaceX's Bangabandhu Satellite-1 mission from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The launch is targeted for no earlier than April.

A Falcon 9 rocket will deliver Bangabandhu Satellite-1 to a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO).

And the SpaceX Media Accreditation just stated that Bangabandhu mission will launch from LC39A! NET april.
So that would make 3 different launches on 3 different launch pads within days!
- IridiumNext-5 from SCL-4E --> NET March 29th
- Bangabadhu from LC39A --> NET April (1st?)
- CRS-14 from SLC40 --> NET April 2nd

I am sure Bangabandhu will shift a bit to the right, but not much as TESS is scheduled NET April 16th...

edit:typo
« Last Edit: 03/01/2018 04:01 pm by Jakusb »

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