I don't why people don't understand that the NASA administrator doesn't get to do what he wants. It is not like he is chef and handed the keys to a restaurant and can set the menu to his liking. Rather, he is a manager of a restaurant that the owner sets the theme and the manager has to work within the theme/menu.
It's my impression that previous Administrators have not been as active as they might on shaping what it is they are asked to do into a mission the Agency can (affordably) carry out.
Quote from: john smith 19 on 04/25/2018 05:00 pmIt's my impression that previous Administrators have not been as active as they might on shaping what it is they are asked to do into a mission the Agency can (affordably) carry out. Griffin went out of his way to try to shape
Quote from: Jim on 04/25/2018 05:03 pmQuote from: john smith 19 on 04/25/2018 05:00 pmIt's my impression that previous Administrators have not been as active as they might on shaping what it is they are asked to do into a mission the Agency can (affordably) carry out. Griffin went out of his way to try to shape Griffin had tunnel vision - his way or the highway. He did not try to assist in shaping policy - he tried to use policy to create his own system.
Quote from: clongton on 04/25/2018 06:27 pmQuote from: Jim on 04/25/2018 05:03 pmQuote from: john smith 19 on 04/25/2018 05:00 pmIt's my impression that previous Administrators have not been as active as they might on shaping what it is they are asked to do into a mission the Agency can (affordably) carry out. Griffin went out of his way to try to shape Griffin had tunnel vision - his way or the highway. He did not try to assist in shaping policy - he tried to use policy to create his own system.And we're still living with the fiscal and hardware legacy of Griffin's decisions - a neutered version of his Constellation transportation architecture is still the active PoR.So unless Congress wants to substantially increase NASA's budget Bridenstine is saddled with the limitations of Griffin's vision of the future, and Bridenstine won't have much ability to make any changes.
SLS and Orion won't get cancelled, Congress will make sure of that. But I have some hope that future programs will take advantage of the commercial sector (for example, commercial habitats, BLEO commercial cargo, and commercial landers). I am also hoping for BLEO commercial crew but I am skeptical about NASA endorsing it (despite Gerst recently saying at the NAC that it was a possibility, in addition to Orion).
The same way Congress sat down Charlie B. and was asked to to the impossible without a major increase in funding they will set Jimmie B. before them as well... Now if the new administrator can sell a dual-launched moon mission using SLS/Orion and a non human rated Falcon Heavy equipped with a Dragon derived lunar lander we might actually have something to work with in short order with and not break the budget...
SLS and Orion won't get cancelled, Congress will make sure of that.
I do not entirely agree. The parts about Griffin's legacy are true. But the part's about Jim being unable to make changes, no I don't think so.While it's true that he will be at the mercy of Congress...
...I think he will be able to help out the commercial side of things greatly, from what we have seen of him he is a great supporter of the commercial sector.
That is exactly the kind of guy we want and need right now, we don't want someone who believes SLS/Costplus > everything else by any means necessary, that is to say we don't want or need another Mike Griffin right now.
No he can't cut or slow down SLS but he can help commercial in other ways...
...and if SLS is cancelled I think he would be the first person to step up and show congress a commercial LV BEO architecture.
It's not a perfect or even ideal situation but I think that we will see major improvements to NASA under this man...
Quote from: yg1968 on 04/25/2018 08:33 pmSLS and Orion won't get cancelled, Congress will make sure of that. But I have some hope that future programs will take advantage of the commercial sector (for example, commercial habitats, BLEO commercial cargo, and commercial landers). I am also hoping for BLEO commercial crew but I am skeptical about NASA endorsing it (despite Gerst recently saying at the NAC that it was a possibility, in addition to Orion).Congress and its current makeup are likely to change drastically in the near term.
Congress and its current makeup are likely to change drastically in the near term.
There is no way of knowing what a future very different looking Congress will do with SLS. Given the increasing deficit spending and the increasing likely-hood that sometime in the 2020s the US will face defaulting on its debt or enacting austerity measures, I think it is not at all an unlikely assumption that SLS is cancelled at some point in the future.
Furthermore is the fact that every success mounted by the commercial industry further undermines the immense cost and extremely low flight rate of SLS as currently planned. At some point Congress will be forced to make a choice.
James Webb was only a politician, but he kept Apollo rolling most of a decade when it consumed up to 5% of the whole federal budget. Later he got Shuttle built despite Nixon's very negative views on the space programme as essentially something that made the Democrats look good (IE Himself look bad).
Quote from: yg1968 on 04/25/2018 08:33 pmSLS and Orion won't get cancelled, Congress will make sure of that.Out to when?Circa 2024 or so, at least new armstrong, FH - possibly with a stretched second stage, and reusability, all have the likelyhood of being able to launch SLS to orbit for less than it costs to make SLS.FH (possibly with F9) will have launched around 3 SLSs in mass to orbit by then. (Starlink).Someone - perhaps even only ULA is going to have demonstrated propellant transfer in orbit.Never mind if BFR actually happens.Given a proven FH and New Armstrong, do you really believe SLS will carry on?
"we’ll see what happens..."
SLS/Orion will soon -- in 2020-2021 -- have to compete on the launch pad with the likes of Vulcan/Centaur V, New Glenn, Falcon Heavy, BFR/BFS, and later New Armstrong. Lofting a whole 70t at $1B per launch, SLS/Orion will be hard-pressed to finish in the top three. What Bridenstine can do is to allow (not block) that competition.