Author Topic: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview  (Read 474088 times)

Offline 93143

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1000 on: 03/31/2011 10:38 pm »
No. Dragon only carries 6MT and Cygnus 2mT.

According to this, Dragon can only carry 3.5 mT of useful cargo to ISS:

http://www.hobbyspace.com/nucleus/index.php?itemid=19447

The cost he gives is a bit lower than the contracted amount, but inflation probably takes care of that; the contract is through 2016.  The comment appears to be relatively recent, so I don't see the payload number being drastically off.
« Last Edit: 03/31/2011 10:41 pm by 93143 »

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1001 on: 03/31/2011 10:42 pm »

13 mT can be lifted by an EELV.  Can a Dragon or Cygnus push 13 metric tons from LEO to the ISS?

No. Dragon only carries 6MT and Cygnus 2mT. However to put this in perspective Progress which has sustained the russians for decades with 3 person crews only carries 2.3MT of payload and some of that is propellant!

Those figures are the mass from the ground.  The MPLM on the EELV takes the high gs.  When used as a tug I suspect that the control authority of the capsules are very different figures form their maximum content.

If the SLS is not getting a lot of money this year then it may be possible to pay for STS-135.  Politically the money is going to the right states.
« Last Edit: 03/31/2011 10:49 pm by A_M_Swallow »

Offline Jim

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1002 on: 04/01/2011 12:35 am »
I just can't see how STS-135 would ever be in jeopardy.  It is too important for ISS, and (IIRC) the President has earlier called out that mission specifically as something he thinks is important.  Administrator Bolden has also said (again, IIRC) that even with a flat budget (e.g., just a series of CRs), NASA will find a way to get it done. 

IMO, STS-135 is not a "nice to have" mission, it is imperative.  I wouldn't trust the commercial providers to make any timeline so far put out there.  Too many things to go wrong and push launches to the right again and again.  I think expectations for the commercial providers need to be managed down in a big way.  Senior management should not have
put them on the critical path (to misuse a term) of ISS support .


The pending govt shutdown will kill STS-135

Offline EE Scott

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1003 on: 04/01/2011 12:37 am »
Bold prediction.  That would really screw things up.  And that would make Congress the bad guy.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2011 12:38 am by EE Scott »
Scott

Offline Jim

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1004 on: 04/01/2011 12:38 am »
Not a prediction

Offline EE Scott

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1005 on: 04/01/2011 12:39 am »
Not a prediction

Ok, only a possible outcome then.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2011 12:40 am by EE Scott »
Scott

Offline Downix

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1006 on: 04/01/2011 12:45 am »
Not a prediction

Ok, only a possible outcome then.
It is what will happen.  The money for STS-135 must be paid for by a set period, and a shutdown would move the goalposts too far down, and bye-bye STS-135. 
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Offline SkyKing

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1007 on: 04/01/2011 12:56 am »
I just can't see how STS-135 would ever be in jeopardy.  It is too important for ISS, and (IIRC) the President has earlier called out that mission specifically as something he thinks is important.  Administrator Bolden has also said (again, IIRC) that even with a flat budget (e.g., just a series of CRs), NASA will find a way to get it done. 

IMO, STS-135 is not a "nice to have" mission, it is imperative.  I wouldn't trust the commercial providers to make any timeline so far put out there.  Too many things to go wrong and push launches to the right again and again.  I think expectations for the commercial providers need to be managed down in a big way.  Senior management should not have
put them on the critical path (to misuse a term) of ISS support .


The pending govt shutdown will kill STS-135

Yes I concur, if the government does shut down it will kill STS 135...that is why I wrote what I did.  I give the government shut down about a 2 in 10 chance of happening as of this date.  As I told someone at dinner..I would bet a dime on it...

Sky King

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1008 on: 04/01/2011 01:04 am »
Ewww. Not big on politics, but a government shutdown isn't likely......is it? I mean, the US will have a lot more to worry about than STS-135 if that happens! :o
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Offline robertross

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1009 on: 04/01/2011 01:07 am »
Ewww. Not big on politics, but a government shutdown isn't likely......is it? I mean, the US will have a lot more to worry about than STS-135 if that happens! :o

I'm thinking 50:50 chance. It's a big problem, and Jim is rarely wrong.

This congress is dysfunctional - it was even before it became a lame duck session.

I'm more hoping the issue becomes WHEN, not IF.

Offline pathfinder_01

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1010 on: 04/01/2011 01:10 am »

This congress is dysfunctional - it was even before it became a lame duck session.


A new congress meets every two years so this congress began in January. The lame duck sessions happen after elections which are in November 2012.

Offline EE Scott

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1011 on: 04/01/2011 01:13 am »
Not a prediction

Ok, only a possible outcome then.
It is what will happen.  The money for STS-135 must be paid for by a set period, and a shutdown would move the goalposts too far down, and bye-bye STS-135. 

I did not realize that a government shutdown would play such havoc with the schedule.  I can assume that a short shutdown wouldn't be that big of a deal, but a prolonged one would kill it?
Scott

Offline RocketEconomist327

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1012 on: 04/01/2011 01:19 am »
Leaning toward a shutdown.

We are still trying to conduct last year's business which was never completed.  Many freshman conservatives, TEA Party types, are sick and tired of CRs.

Moreover, the senate has not proposed anything.

Lines are being drawn in the sand.

I, and this is my personal opinion, do not feel, even with a government shutdown; that STS-135 would be canceled.  But that is just me.

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You can talk about all the great things you can do, or want to do, in space; but unless the rocket scientists get a sound understanding of economics (and quickly), the US space program will never achieve the greatness it should.

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Offline northanger

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1013 on: 04/01/2011 01:24 am »
Gee whiz. Don't tell me it'll take a government shutdown to finally end Shuttle?  :o

Offline psloss

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1014 on: 04/01/2011 01:25 am »
I did not realize that a government shutdown would play such havoc with the schedule.  I can assume that a short shutdown wouldn't be that big of a deal, but a prolonged one would kill it?
A prolonged one would be the problem because of the unique situation for Shuttle operations.  The pols had both a short one (about a week) and a longer one (weeks) the last time they went showdown on this.

Depending on if one happens and how long it is, all us outsiders will be looking to see what NASA HQ decides.  A shutdown not only suspends work on 135, but could impact CRS integration work.  If so, that's a double whammy for ISS supply margins.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2011 01:25 am by psloss »

Offline robertross

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1015 on: 04/01/2011 01:28 am »

Depending on if one happens and how long it is, all us outsiders will be looking to see what NASA HQ decides.  A shutdown not only suspends work on 135, but could impact CRS integration work.  If so, that's a double whammy for ISS supply margins.


But I think NASA HQ can make a solid case to support ISS with STS-135 - the need is too great.

What other options are there? Anything in the way of special appropriation or Presidental order? Obviously were not at that point now, just feeling things out.

(and don't worry people, our political system seems just as dysfunctional now as yours)

Offline psloss

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1016 on: 04/01/2011 01:32 am »

Depending on if one happens and how long it is, all us outsiders will be looking to see what NASA HQ decides.  A shutdown not only suspends work on 135, but could impact CRS integration work.  If so, that's a double whammy for ISS supply margins.


But I think NASA HQ can make a solid case to support ISS with STS-135 - the need is too great.

What other options are there? Anything in the way of special appropriation or Presidental order? Obviously were not at that point now, just feeling things out.
Outside "help" is unlikely -- NASA would be somewhere in the middle of a long line with other agencies that might also make a case for a special dispensation.  At best, I think it would be up to NASA HQ, but a long shutdown probably ties their hands, too.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2011 01:33 am by psloss »

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1017 on: 04/01/2011 01:43 am »
I don't think a shutdown will happen. I won't link to a purely political story here but if you use Google the news is that a final budget number has been tentatively agreed to between the House and Senate around $30ish billion in cuts, but the details of where the cuts are is still being hashed out.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2011 01:43 am by spacetraveler »

Offline robertross

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Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1018 on: 04/01/2011 01:45 am »
Obviously just guessing, but how long do people here figure this 'could' last?

I say this because I think back to Bill Gerstenmaier's comment (a while back) to fly STS-135 as late as possible, something like August. Now of course this has been moved up, but perhaps it could slip back to an August timeframe with 'hopefully' enough time to make up for the lost time during a shutdown to get back up to speed on crew training & ops.

Offline OpsAnalyst

Re: NASA FY 2011 Appropriations - preview
« Reply #1019 on: 04/01/2011 01:52 am »
Obviously just guessing, but how long do people here figure this 'could' last?

I say this because I think back to Bill Gerstenmaier's comment (a while back) to fly STS-135 as late as possible, something like August. Now of course this has been moved up, but perhaps it could slip back to an August timeframe with 'hopefully' enough time to make up for the lost time during a shutdown to get back up to speed on crew training & ops.

Gerst did/does want to go later and so does Suff but it was moved forward because of budget. I talked with crew over the weekend; they've been told it's not gonna slip into August, period.  Not enough money left to fly in August. 

If shutdown occurs and goes longer than a couple of weeks, there won't be enough time in the "budget envelope" or money at the end of that to pay for STS135.  That's what we're hearing. 

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