If you've noticed, EM has been mentioning financial matters (like not going bankrupt or $1B for reusability development) quite a bit lately. GS also mentioned 'hundreds of millions' in development costs. What I think happened is that the AMOS failure and price tag for rebuild of LC-40 precipitated a 'chat' between GS and EM where a few lines were drawn (by GS). EM is not chipping in a billion per year, so the business (it IS a business) needs to become viable. Lots of F9/FH launches, including getting the ConnX up and producing major revenue, is required for that business to pay for the next big thing which is ITS... there isn't money for ITS first.
Quote from: AncientU on 04/10/2017 10:26 amIf you've noticed, EM has been mentioning financial matters (like not going bankrupt or $1B for reusability development) quite a bit lately. GS also mentioned 'hundreds of millions' in development costs. What I think happened is that the AMOS failure and price tag for rebuild of LC-40 precipitated a 'chat' between GS and EM where a few lines were drawn (by GS). EM is not chipping in a billion per year, so the business (it IS a business) needs to become viable. Lots of F9/FH launches, including getting the ConnX up and producing major revenue, is required for that business to pay for the next big thing which is ITS... there isn't money for ITS first.Thats a quite well observed point. Thank you for the perspective. SpaceX is not yet close to emergency mode but the AMOS failure shifted the short term priorities around a lot. Unless they get donated a ton of money, SpaceX will not be able to fast-roll ITS.
I'm sorry, but ITS makes no sense as a satellite launcher.
What does not make sense for me is saying "ITS will make all other rockets obsolete".It is silly. As silly as saying "18-wheelers will make all other cars obsolete".
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.
Quote from: ZachF on 08/15/2017 04:38 pmIf it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.wrong. There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc
Whether it can be accomplished, how hard it is to do, or how long it will take to achieve, are the questions here. If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.
Quote from: Jim on 08/15/2017 04:39 pmQuote from: ZachF on 08/15/2017 04:38 pmIf it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.wrong. There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etcYes Jim I agree. See the above post as to why I believe so also. Large expendable LVs have not obsoleted the small sat launchers. A large reusable LV will not obsolete small reusable launchers or even small expendable launchers. Just force them to be less expensive.
Quote from: Jim on 08/15/2017 04:39 pmQuote from: ZachF on 08/15/2017 04:38 pmIf it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.wrong. There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc/sighBut they have been relegated to small, niche roles save for the calculator, which for 95%+ of people is now a phone/tablet app.
Quote from: Jim on 08/15/2017 04:39 pmQuote from: ZachF on 08/15/2017 04:38 pmIf it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.wrong. There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etcObsolescence doesn't mean nonexistence.
Quote from: docmordrid on 08/15/2017 05:40 pmQuote from: Jim on 08/15/2017 04:39 pmQuote from: ZachF on 08/15/2017 04:38 pmIf it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.wrong. There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc/sighBut they have been relegated to small, niche roles save for the calculator, which for 95%+ of people is now a phone/tablet app./sigh Does everything have to explicit? The point is that other rockets are not going to be obsolete Propeller driven aircraft are not niche
Full rapid re-usability changes the economics landscape completely. It's an order-of-magnitude (or greater) cost disruption.
Quote from: ZachF on 08/15/2017 04:38 pmFull rapid re-usability changes the economics landscape completely. It's an order-of-magnitude (or greater) cost disruption.I will remind you we are talking in context of ITS supposedly destroying all other rockets due to its sheer awesomeness.So, nope. "Expendable rockets become obsolete" is not same thing as "ITS will make any other rocket obsolete".Again, this kind of claim is very silly and out of touch with reality. ITS is cost-effective only for appropriate payload. People do not drive in 18-wheelers. 18-wheelers do not drive to every pops&mom grocery store. People generally have small (relatively) cars on their parking lots, not school buses. Etc, etc, etc.