New Glenn Launch Manifest

[su27k]

Seems rather risky that NASA would award this to a rocket that has not launched yet by a company have has been to even LEO, like alone BEO. Does NASA have a backup if NG is not ready and has launched twice by later 2024? If they miss 2024 will they not have to wait until 2026? I am assuming they have to approve to NASA they can at least reach LEO twice before they are allowed to launch a NASA mission.

You know NASA did the same thing with SpaceX, right?  The Falcon 9 was very much a paper rocket on the drawing table when NASA gave a CRS award to SpaceX.

Also, Falcon 1's third launch had a NASA payload on it, the first three launches were all failures.

Not really, when NASA awarded CRS to SpaceX, Falcon 9 already completed 9-engines full mission duration static fire, that's way ahead of where New Glenn is right now, very much not a paper rocket.

Of course CRS is worth $1.6B, so it's not really comparable to the small award in this case. I agree that the ESCAPADE award is more comparable to the award NASA given to Falcon 1 and other small launchers.

[su27k]

<snip>
How NASA can award a launch contract for a probe that is nearing completion to a a company whose rocket is not only not qualified with successful launches, not only hasn’t started integrated testing, but hasn’t even had any completed stage moved out of the factory, one not likely to launch for a year or two?
What is NASA’s process and criteria for the award?

If I don't know any better. It appears to be an attempt by NASA to quiet the WA congressional  delegation by awarding a low value mission launch contract to Below Orbit.

No need for conspiracy theory here, as you said this is a low value mission so NASA can tolerate some delays and risks. Blue Origin puts in a really low bid (I would guess significantly lower than the launch cost) to beat out competitors, they won fair and square. Now let's just wait and see if they can execute.

[Robotbeat]

I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!

[DanClemmensen]

I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!

I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.

[nicp]

I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!

I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.

It will.
But when it does I suspect SX will drop their prices a lot. And still won’t make a loss.
And when that happens…. “Gentlemen, start your lawyers”

[Robotbeat]

I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!

I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.

It will.
But when it does I suspect SX will drop their prices a lot. And still won’t make a loss.
And when that happens…. “Gentlemen, start your lawyers”

That’s unnecessarily dramatic. This is just how an efficient market works, and that’s a huge reason I’m excited for real competitors.

And this is all super good for payload makers and mission planners.

[meekGee]

I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!

I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.

We say "when", but the road from here to there is pretty obscure.

I mean for example we know Vulcan will launch.  The "when" is not quite certain, the engines are not qualified yet but we all know they will be, since basically not flying this year is not an option.  They passed acceptance, so they'll send it.  It's a risk/reward/penalty thing. It'll happen this year  but I don't think H1 is a sure thing at this point.

Meanwhile NG is so far from being a real thing it's depressing. While Vulcan is an evolved rocket for ULA, NG is brand new.  BO will have to go through a similar campaign as SpaceX has. They have never done this or anything like this. SpaceX had F9 experience. BO has what, NS?

SpaceX has been sitting on the pad with Starship for a couple of years now. Is there anyone expecting NG to just fly out?  Boeing's experience with Starliner showed that slow development is not a predicator for fast deployment. Quite on the contrary - when a project stretches for over a decade, just personnel turn-over reintroduces risk.

NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

[matthewkantar]

NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?

[DanClemmensen]

I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally. (And starship competitor if they do upper stage reuse.)

What a time to be in the space field (or be a space enthusiast)!

I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.

We say "when", but the road from here to there is pretty obscure.

Sigh. It seems I need to remember to put the <sardonic> tags in. Please parse my statement as:
      "I will not be excited until a real Falcon competitor shows up finally".
Also understand that I don't see that happening for quite some time yet. It's even likely that NG will never compete head-to-head with F9 because SpaceX will already have quit marketing it. They will continue to fly F9 and FH to meet existing commitments (CRS, CCP, NSSL) but will market Starship for new orders. Starship is at least a year ahead of NG now, so even if NG goes from first flight to operational as quickly as Starship they will still be a year behind.

[niwax]

NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?

It strongly depends on how you define "competitor". By the time NG flies, they'll have spent the better part of $5 billion* developing it. Unless NG sells for $400 million a launch, it will be more a sign of Jeff Bezos still being happy to throw money at playing in space rather than someone actually managing to build something that can stand up to F9 commercially.

SpaceX has barely managed to eke out $3 billion/yr in launch business. If NG can take half of that, and make a massive 30% margin, it would only pay back its development cost in 10 years with zero interest. And it took enabling add-ons like Dragon to get the most profitable F9 business.

_{* It's been six years since Bezos confirmed he is putting $1 billion a year into Blue and they are realistically two years away from a real launch cadence. Not all of that is going into NG, but combined with income from subsidies and development contracts, $5 billion is a decent guess.}

[meekGee]

NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?

That doesn't make it any less of an "if".

It says NASA would like to encourage more providers, and I think everyone agrees with that sentiment.

Also NG is the only thing out there that aims to be larger than an F9.

[meekGee]

I’m super excited to have a real Falcon competitor show up finally.
...

I will be super excited when a Falcon competitor shows up finally.

We say "when", but the road from here to there is pretty obscure.

Sigh. It seems I need to remember to put the &lt;sardonic&gt; tags in.

It's ok, I read it right... But was deathly worried others might not have....

[Robotbeat]

NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?

That doesn't make it any less of an "if".

It says NASA would like to encourage more providers, and I think everyone agrees with that sentiment.

Also NG is the only thing out there that aims to be larger than an F9.

Terran-R does. Fully reusable payload supposed to be 20t. That is more than a F9 partially reusable payload.

[meekGee]

NG at this point is not a competitor, and is an "if" not a "when".

I dunno, NG just competed a NASA launch away from a number of other concerns that could use the work. Viable competitor? Who knows?

That doesn't make it any less of an "if".

It says NASA would like to encourage more providers, and I think everyone agrees with that sentiment.

Also NG is the only thing out there that aims to be larger than an F9.

Terran-R does. Fully reusable payload supposed to be 20t. That is more than a F9 partially reusable payload.

Actually yes, true, and also some serious innovation in rocket building.  I'm excited about that one.

[DrHeywoodFloyd]

"..Blue Origin is also slated to fly its 322-foot New Glenn rocket before the end of this year. Company founder Jeff Bezos sees it as the rocket that will build "a road to space," meaning it will need to fly dozens of times per year to not only deploy satellites, but transport future space station segments and more. New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2023/01/15/space-force-expecting-hundreds-of-florida-launches-in-coming-years/69799019007/

[jdon759]

".....New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

!!! !!!

[Robert_the_Doll]

New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

What is Florida Today's citation for this claim?

[DrHeywoodFloyd]

New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

What is Florida Today's citation for this claim?

Here is the twitter account of the author, Emre Kelly...
https://twitter.com/emrekelly

His contact details are on this page...including email address...
https://www.floridatoday.com/staff/4387089002/emre-kelly/

Best to ask him

[meekGee]

"..Blue Origin is also slated to fly its 322-foot New Glenn rocket before the end of this year. Company founder Jeff Bezos sees it as the rocket that will build "a road to space," meaning it will need to fly dozens of times per year to not only deploy satellites, but transport future space station segments and more. New Glenn will be a reusable rocket and Bezos is pushing to fly its second mission within 30 days of the first..."

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2023/01/15/space-force-expecting-hundreds-of-florida-launches-in-coming-years/69799019007/

To be clear...

The reporter is not quoting anything recent from BO.

He's quoting a Major General Stephen Purdy of the Space Force, who is repeating the last stated aspirational goal he's gotten from each launch company, at some point in the past.

He's giving one paragraph each to ULA, Relativity, BO, and SpaceX.

Nothing about the article purports to be new information, and yes, at some point flying in 2023 was BO's goal.

[Comga]

Here’s a novel idea for a post in the New Glenn Manifest thread:  A discussion about a launch date for a payload riding on a New Glenn!

ESCAPADE abstract from LPSC 2023:
https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2023/pdf/1108.pdf

It shows ESCAPADE launching in time to make the October 2024 Mars transfer window.