Quote from: GncDude on 12/31/2010 03:46 amQuote from: pbreed on 12/30/2010 05:22 pmMy predictions for 2011:Masten or Armadillo will get to 100km, once but not twice, and only one of them will do it.SS2 does not have a powered flight in 2011Spacex will fly three times, 2xf9 and 1x f1e, one of these will have a significant anomaly.We will see a Blueorigin flight.The NASA budget will either see continuing resolutions or a cut of at least 25%, most likely CR as I see monumental gridlock coming.Some well funded person or group will announce a private mars, moon or asteroid probe mission. (All but one of the current Google Lunar X prize contenders do not currently pass my well funded test)We will have another major space debris problem like the iridium/Russian collision.Mr. Unreasonable! Welcome! Or... welcome back!Unreasonable? In fact I think these are quite reasonable predictions. I'm waiting for RabidPanda to show up.
Quote from: pbreed on 12/30/2010 05:22 pmMy predictions for 2011:Masten or Armadillo will get to 100km, once but not twice, and only one of them will do it.SS2 does not have a powered flight in 2011Spacex will fly three times, 2xf9 and 1x f1e, one of these will have a significant anomaly.We will see a Blueorigin flight.The NASA budget will either see continuing resolutions or a cut of at least 25%, most likely CR as I see monumental gridlock coming.Some well funded person or group will announce a private mars, moon or asteroid probe mission. (All but one of the current Google Lunar X prize contenders do not currently pass my well funded test)We will have another major space debris problem like the iridium/Russian collision.Mr. Unreasonable! Welcome! Or... welcome back!
My predictions for 2011:Masten or Armadillo will get to 100km, once but not twice, and only one of them will do it.SS2 does not have a powered flight in 2011Spacex will fly three times, 2xf9 and 1x f1e, one of these will have a significant anomaly.We will see a Blueorigin flight.The NASA budget will either see continuing resolutions or a cut of at least 25%, most likely CR as I see monumental gridlock coming.Some well funded person or group will announce a private mars, moon or asteroid probe mission. (All but one of the current Google Lunar X prize contenders do not currently pass my well funded test)We will have another major space debris problem like the iridium/Russian collision.
Quote from: cd-slam on 12/31/2010 05:59 amQuote from: GncDude on 12/31/2010 03:46 amQuote from: pbreed on 12/30/2010 05:22 pmMy predictions for 2011:Masten or Armadillo will get to 100km, once but not twice, and only one of them will do it.SS2 does not have a powered flight in 2011Spacex will fly three times, 2xf9 and 1x f1e, one of these will have a significant anomaly.We will see a Blueorigin flight.The NASA budget will either see continuing resolutions or a cut of at least 25%, most likely CR as I see monumental gridlock coming.Some well funded person or group will announce a private mars, moon or asteroid probe mission. (All but one of the current Google Lunar X prize contenders do not currently pass my well funded test)We will have another major space debris problem like the iridium/Russian collision.Mr. Unreasonable! Welcome! Or... welcome back!Unreasonable? In fact I think these are quite reasonable predictions. I'm waiting for RabidPanda to show up. Paul Breed runs Unreasonable Rocket. It was a reference to that, I think.~Jon
Quote from: Danderman on 12/24/2010 06:51 pmWhat is "C-Star"? I guess you could call C-Star Aerospace the "Son of DIRECT". Kinda. Sorta.Ross.
What is "C-Star"?
11. There's a better than 1:10 chance that Ares I will be funded into FY2012 ...
Quote from: nooneofconsequence on 01/02/2011 08:29 pm11. There's a better than 1:10 chance that Ares I will be funded into FY2012 ...Agreed with one provisio - The actual level of funding will start falling off the more confused and bogged down SDLV becomes. This is semi-OT because it's really talking about FY2012 and possibly even 2013. However, I predict that funding of 5-seg will finally drop down to a work-force retention "paid to stand around" level that the Utah delegation refuses to allow to be eliminated.
Quote from: Ben the Space Brit on 01/03/2011 12:00 pmQuote from: nooneofconsequence on 01/02/2011 08:29 pm11. There's a better than 1:10 chance that Ares I will be funded into FY2012 ...Agreed with one provisio - The actual level of funding will start falling off the more confused and bogged down SDLV becomes. This is semi-OT because it's really talking about FY2012 and possibly even 2013. However, I predict that funding of 5-seg will finally drop down to a work-force retention "paid to stand around" level that the Utah delegation refuses to allow to be eliminated.FY12 will be passed (or not) during 2011. Therefore, on-topic.cheers, Martin
ATK will insist that SLS has to use 5-seg solids, regardless of consequences. This will make SLS program much more painful and expensive than it has to be. SLS won't be canceled, at least not during 2011.
...5. SpaceX may sign an agreement with a significant partner for exclusive use of a developed Falcon/Dragon system component(s) by the end of 2011. This will alter the landscape for decades to come. ...-nooneofconsequnce.
Nobody got all of their predictions right this year, not even jongoff.
Here's my predictions for this year:1. COTS: Orbital will have a flight of Taurus II that is at least as successful as the first Falcon 9 flight. SpaceX will have an awesome photo-op of ISS crew members transferring cargo out of Dragon on-orbit sometime before Christmas. But there will probably be at least one sporty anomaly this year that gives critics grist for their mill, and possibly necessitate either an extra flight, or extra tests on COTS 3 before they'll be allowed to approach the station.
2. Suborbital RLVs: No fully-reusable vehicle (from Masten, Armadillo, Virgin, XCOR, or Blue Origin) will fly to 100km this year, though at least two will fly to over 30,000ft. Armadillo may fly an HPR-style rocket to 100km, but it won't use powered landing. At least one or two TLOVs will occur, though with no injuries. Virgin will do a lot more drop tests, and static firing tests, but won't actually do a successful rocket-powered flight this year. Blue will fly something, and there may be a video or some pictures, but not much information. It will be a year of incremental progress, but nobody will actually make it all the way to 100km reusably until 2012.
3. Shuttle will retire successfully after flying 135 late in the year.
4. The restrictions on CxP cancellations will be removed, but not in a normal appropriations bill--it'll be slipped in on some "must pass" legislation like an emergency war supplemental. Other than that, NASA will be operating under a CR for all of calender year 2011.
5. Obama's FY 2012 NASA budget will be a shocker again. Probably with a recommended funding level noticeably below the $19B he suggested for FY11, in part of an effort to outmaneuver Republicans on deficit issues. But no actual appropriation bill for NASA other than CR's will pass next year.
6. NASA and Congress will continue to have fights over SDLVs vs. non-SD HLVs. If Congress does pass any language "clarifying" the situation in the favor of SDHLVs (which will be more Ares-V like than DIRECT-like), it will once again be as a rider to some "must pass" bill, not some honest indication of widespread congressional support outside of HSF districts--but it will nonetheless be painted as such an indication. Work will start to some degree on an SD-HLV by the end of the year.
7. All of the various small technology development programs under the OCT will be initiated, but with relatively little fanfare. At least three new Centennial Challenges will be announced, with at least one of them regarding small payload return from ISS or propellant depots.
8. Russians will boost the price of Soyuz after Shuttle retires to somewhere in the $60-80M per seat range.
9. Either Bolden, Garver, or Holdren will step down by the end of the year. If it is Bolden, Obama won't actually nominate someone to replace him.
10. Someone else will come freaky-close on their predictions this year (maybe Jim?), and people will ask questions like "will Jon get his predictions mojo back for 2012?"
Quote from: nooneofconsequence on 01/02/2011 08:29 pm...5. SpaceX may sign an agreement with a significant partner for exclusive use of a developed Falcon/Dragon system component(s) by the end of 2011. This will alter the landscape for decades to come. ...-nooneofconsequnce.I don't know how the heck you got that one right! (Actually... Maybe I do?)
1) NASA flies the last three shuttle missions successfully, with enormous media coverage on the last flight focusing on the glum workers packing up and leaving.
2) One month later, China launches the Shenzhou 8 mission unmanned to a successful docking with the Tiangong module. Plans are announced for manned space stations and other "space spectaculars" (this is hardly a prediction, it's already well known).
3) These events lead to a visceral reaction among the American public decrying the end of US leadership on the world stage. None of this will lead to significant change to the current US programs other than some fiery speeches.
5) Messenger's flight to Mercury and Dawn's mission to Vesta will reignite interest in planetary exploration.
6) 1 successful SpaceX mission to the ISS this year, possibly following some anomalies in the rendezvous mission. Cygnus delayed to 2012.
7) Russian MLM pushed even further out to 2013 or later. More interest in Russian commercial plans and potential for a Russian BEO manned commercial mission (in the longer term). The price for a Soyuz seat increases dramatically.
Successful launch of Soyuz at Kourou.
9) Further Russian-Chinese co-operation on lunar and planetary missions. Talk of manned missions will come to nothing due to Chinese military involvement.
10) More Earth-sized planets to be discovered around other stars.
11) "Planet X"/"Nemesis" Earth-sized KBO will NOT be found; interest in KBOs will diminish as a result.
12) Pluto will not be reinstated as a planet, but will lead to many new books and increase interest in astronomy.