Author Topic: Predictions for 2011  (Read 31226 times)

Offline jongoff

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #40 on: 12/31/2010 06:01 am »
My predictions for 2011:

Masten or Armadillo will get to 100km, once but not twice, and only one of them will do it.

SS2 does not have a powered flight in 2011

Spacex will fly three times, 2xf9 and 1x f1e, one of these will have a significant anomaly.

We will see a Blueorigin flight.

The NASA budget will either see continuing resolutions or a cut of at least 25%, most likely CR as I see monumental gridlock coming.

Some well funded person or group will announce a private mars, moon or asteroid probe mission.  (All but one of the current Google Lunar X prize contenders do not currently pass my well funded test)

We will have another major space debris problem like the iridium/Russian collision.

Mr. Unreasonable! Welcome! Or... welcome back!

Unreasonable? In fact I think these are quite reasonable predictions. I'm waiting for RabidPanda to show up. :P

Paul Breed runs Unreasonable Rocket.  It was a reference to that, I think.

~Jon

Offline cd-slam

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #41 on: 12/31/2010 06:03 am »
My predictions for 2011:

Masten or Armadillo will get to 100km, once but not twice, and only one of them will do it.

SS2 does not have a powered flight in 2011

Spacex will fly three times, 2xf9 and 1x f1e, one of these will have a significant anomaly.

We will see a Blueorigin flight.

The NASA budget will either see continuing resolutions or a cut of at least 25%, most likely CR as I see monumental gridlock coming.

Some well funded person or group will announce a private mars, moon or asteroid probe mission.  (All but one of the current Google Lunar X prize contenders do not currently pass my well funded test)

We will have another major space debris problem like the iridium/Russian collision.

Mr. Unreasonable! Welcome! Or... welcome back!

Unreasonable? In fact I think these are quite reasonable predictions. I'm waiting for RabidPanda to show up. :P

Paul Breed runs Unreasonable Rocket.  It was a reference to that, I think.

~Jon

OIC. ha ha :D

Offline marsavian

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #42 on: 12/31/2010 11:56 am »
The OMB influenced final HEFT report states that Falcon XX is the only solution that meets performance, budget and schedule but Congress says we don't care, just build the SD-HLV like we authorized and we will worry about the money later which is what is finally decided. The SD-HLV solution proposed is basically an ESAS Ares V Classic with two other vehicle modes (booster-less and upper stage-less) which although not fully satisfying the Griffin Ares I/Rocketzilla crowd does the best job of interpreting the 2010 Congress Authorization Act both in spirit and deed in building on all the substantive work done by CxP so far and producing one cost effective rocket with flexible variants to satisfy all potential future BEO needs. An unseen good side-effect of having a SRB-less LEO Orion only launcher version of SLS is it gets ATK on the political side of BEO exploration meaning NASA's budget does not decrease in the future. 

SpaceX get permission to combine the next two COTS missions and it is a success and cargo is commercially delivered to the ISS. SpaceX, Boeing, Orbital and Sierra Nevada get CCDev2 but barring technical problems SpaceX and Boeing get the final crew contracts, however the two losing spaceplanes if fully developed prove a bigger hit with future orbital tourists making commercial crew a good long term investment on non-Govt manned spaceflight.

All proposed Space Shuttle missions fly successfully and is feted and mourned by its supporters on final retirement.
« Last Edit: 12/31/2010 12:03 pm by marsavian »

Offline pargoo

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #43 on: 01/01/2011 12:56 pm »
1. STS-135 will be cancelled
2. Orion will be cancelled
3. X-37B will be a dead-end project like Delta Clipper and all the others
4. Nobody will make a 100km flight
5. Branson will still be testing, testing, testing...
6. Three or four Soyuz replacements will be announced again, none of   
    which will even bend metal
7. Dragon 9 will suffer an embarrassing LOV, delaying COTS severely
8. India will struggle to get its GSLV and PSLV back anywhere near being reliable enough for any possible evolution towards crewed flights
9a. Japan will dream up *another* no-hope lunar base project
9b. Their plans for HSF will go nowhere   
  Longer term:
No return to winged HSF within 30 years, by anyone
No return to Moon within 50 years

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #44 on: 01/01/2011 01:04 pm »
What is "C-Star"?    ???

I guess you could call C-Star Aerospace the "Son of DIRECT".   Kinda.   Sorta.

Ross.

Looking forward to more information late 2011.  :-( 

Offline HIPAR

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #45 on: 01/01/2011 04:04 pm »
1) Due to delays getting the last scheduled Shuttles off the ground, NASA will run out of funds and cancel the extra flight.

2) 2011 will be another year of political bickering, no decisions on the future of NASA human spaceflight will be forthcoming.  Next year will be wasted extending 'the gap'.

3) COTS developments will continue to foster progress towards commercial launches

4) Robotic missions will be the NASA centerpiece.

---  CHAS
« Last Edit: 01/01/2011 04:05 pm by HIPAR »

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #46 on: 01/02/2011 03:11 pm »
Uhhh... how many of the 2010 preditions came true?
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #47 on: 01/02/2011 03:38 pm »
I think Jon Goff was the closest to nailing it
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Offline nooneofconsequence

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #48 on: 01/02/2011 08:29 pm »
1. There will only be one US capsule HSF RV by the end of 2011.

2. ATV will either become a long term Hab project or be phased out entirely - no return craft demonstrator.

3. J-2X will be found to be insufficient and not progress to flight application. Final end of Apollo / Saturn flight hardware legacy.

4. PWR's fortunes and ATK's fortunes will be resolved by the end of this year either for the good or bad for both or either. Much scrambling/chaos back/forth during the year in space sector of industry will occur as this is sorted out.

5. SpaceX may sign an agreement with a significant partner for exclusive use of a developed Falcon/Dragon system component(s) by the end of 2011. This will alter the landscape for decades to come.

6. Both Boeing and LockMart will sort out conflicts with HSF and publicly commit to a course of action each, independent of NASA.

7. NASA's HSF requirements will become overbuilt and under justified. Lawyers for various corporations will attack it during 2011 and threaten Soyuz US flights post Shuttle program conclusion under the same guidance.

8. Congress will be even less helpful in HSF - they will posture a lot, but secretly hope that the commercial sector will sort things out for them, while demonizing / ridiculing them at the same time.

9. Obama will constantly use ANY & ALL "commercial" success/plans/ambitions to yell "squirrel!", causing rivals to self-monkey wrench govt HLV/HSF efforts in response (attempted overspending), undercutting chances for them. Less than 50% chances for govt HSF/HLV total this year, declining to 10% if ATK forces 5 seg solids over reach.

10. 2011 is the last year of SDLV "cohesiveness" . Afterwards RS-25/ET and RSRMs "go separate ways" - they'll just be components like any other, nothing special. As they all along should have been ...

Note: predictions not advocacy.

Oh, and ...

11. There's a better than 1:10 chance that Ares I will be funded into FY2012 ...

-nooneofconsequnce.
"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something" - Plato

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #49 on: 01/03/2011 12:00 pm »
11. There's a better than 1:10 chance that Ares I will be funded into FY2012 ...

Agreed with one provisio - The actual level of funding will start falling off the more confused and bogged down SDLV becomes. 

This is semi-OT because it's really talking about FY2012 and possibly even 2013.  However, I predict that funding of 5-seg will finally drop down to a work-force retention "paid to stand around" level that the Utah delegation refuses to allow to be eliminated.

AIUS will morph into a government-managed varation on the ACES/Common Centaur theme (possibly with the RL-10 replacment supplanting J-2X).  Naturally this turns into an ugly legal battle with LockMart and ULA who state that AIUS has effectively become a competitor with a commercial product in violation of the Space Act.

I direct you to my earlier prediction that NASA will start work on a MPCV/EELV-H 'fall-back' option.  I maintain that, unless SLS is sorted out and given clear direction by the time the FY2012 budget comes up for a vote in the House and Senate, then it will be increasingly seen as NASA's Constellation replacement.

Unless SLS is given clear direction and funding fairly soon, then 2011 is the year that the next NASA rocket finally becomes a vaporware project and the ascendancy of commercial launch over government LVs beomes irrevocable.  SDLV will become economically non-viable by the end of FY2011 and SLS will boil down to a choice between Atlas-V Phase 2/3A, a quick-and-dirty Delta-IV-heritage clustered kerolox core LV and Falcon-X.  Boeing will cunningly select the 4 x RL-10-powered version of AIUS as the upper stage for the modified Delta-IV, giving MSFC a stake and allowing it to be seen as the 'NASA Rocket', whilst Atlas-V P2/3A will be a ULA product and Falcon-X from the either loved or loathed SpaceX.

The Delta-IV variation may even start being referred to as the 'Ares-IA' because of its use of the modified AIUS.


[edit]
Clarified possible commercial HLV options
« Last Edit: 01/03/2011 12:04 pm by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline MP99

Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #50 on: 01/04/2011 09:27 pm »
11. There's a better than 1:10 chance that Ares I will be funded into FY2012 ...

Agreed with one provisio - The actual level of funding will start falling off the more confused and bogged down SDLV becomes. 

This is semi-OT because it's really talking about FY2012 and possibly even 2013.  However, I predict that funding of 5-seg will finally drop down to a work-force retention "paid to stand around" level that the Utah delegation refuses to allow to be eliminated.

FY12 will be passed (or not) during 2011. Therefore, on-topic.

cheers, Martin

Offline nooneofconsequence

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #51 on: 02/08/2011 07:46 pm »
11. There's a better than 1:10 chance that Ares I will be funded into FY2012 ...

Agreed with one provisio - The actual level of funding will start falling off the more confused and bogged down SDLV becomes. 

This is semi-OT because it's really talking about FY2012 and possibly even 2013.  However, I predict that funding of 5-seg will finally drop down to a work-force retention "paid to stand around" level that the Utah delegation refuses to allow to be eliminated.

FY12 will be passed (or not) during 2011. Therefore, on-topic.

cheers, Martin
Got there ahead of time.

And another of my predictions is hanging fire on the edge of happening this month, if not next. Gloat.
"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something" - Plato

Offline ChefPat

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #52 on: 12/22/2011 01:18 am »
Lets see how the predictions worked out?
Playing Politics with Commercial Crew is Un-American!!!

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #53 on: 12/22/2011 02:38 am »
Nobody got all of their predictions right this year, not even jongoff.
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline go4mars

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #54 on: 12/22/2011 03:34 am »
ATK will insist that SLS has to use 5-seg solids, regardless of consequences. This will make SLS program much more painful and expensive than it has to be. SLS won't be canceled, at least not during 2011.
This person did.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #55 on: 12/22/2011 03:59 am »
I was too much of a panzy to make predictions in 2011. ;)

One thing: Lots of people suggested SpaceX would have launch anomalies. They had no problems whatsoever on any of their flights this year. ;)

...
5. SpaceX may sign an agreement with a significant partner for exclusive use of a developed Falcon/Dragon system component(s) by the end of 2011. This will alter the landscape for decades to come.
...
-nooneofconsequnce.
I don't know how the heck you got that one right! (Actually... Maybe I do?)
« Last Edit: 12/22/2011 03:59 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline jongoff

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #56 on: 12/26/2011 05:29 pm »
Nobody got all of their predictions right this year, not even jongoff.

Yeah, I made the mistake of not being as pessimistic with areas I wasn't directly involved with.

~Jon

Offline jongoff

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #57 on: 12/26/2011 05:41 pm »
Its late enough in the year that I figured it was worth going back over my predictions and seeing how I did.

Here's my predictions for this year:

1. COTS: Orbital will have a flight of Taurus II that is at least as successful as the first Falcon 9 flight.  SpaceX will have an awesome photo-op of ISS crew members transferring cargo out of Dragon on-orbit sometime before Christmas.  But there will probably be at least one sporty anomaly this year that gives critics grist for their mill, and possibly necessitate either an extra flight, or extra tests on COTS 3 before they'll be allowed to approach the station.

No dice on this one.  Neither COTS team launched.  I was obviously optimistic about the timing.  I still think I'll stay as optimistic about how successful SpaceX will be when they do fly, but it definitely slipped farther than I expected, even with my attempt at being realistic.

0/1

Quote
2. Suborbital RLVs: No fully-reusable vehicle (from Masten, Armadillo, Virgin, XCOR, or Blue Origin) will fly to 100km this year, though at least two will fly to over 30,000ft.  Armadillo may fly an HPR-style rocket to 100km, but it won't use powered landing.  At least one or two TLOVs will occur, though with no injuries.  Virgin will do a lot more drop tests, and static firing tests, but won't actually do a successful rocket-powered flight this year.  Blue will fly something, and there may be a video or some pictures, but not much information.  It will be a year of incremental progress, but nobody will actually make it all the way to 100km reusably until 2012.

I think I nailed this reasonably well.  Nobody made it even close to 100km, but Blue and AA both made it past 30,000ft.  More than two TLOVs (several from AA and one from Blue), Virgin still in the drop test and static firings mode. 

So call it 1/2.

Quote
3. Shuttle will retire successfully after flying 135 late in the year.

2/3

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4. The restrictions on CxP cancellations will be removed, but not in a normal appropriations bill--it'll be slipped in on some "must pass" legislation like an emergency war supplemental.  Other than that, NASA will be operating under a CR for all of calender year 2011.

CxP cancellations came as part of an omnibus CR, which is sort of a must-pass bill, but could also be considered a normal appropriations bill at this point.  And I was actually wrong about NASA operating under a CR for all of Calendar Year 2011, since Congress actually got their budget passed as part of the minibus bill. 

So call it... 2.25/4

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5. Obama's FY 2012 NASA budget will be a shocker again.  Probably with a recommended funding level noticeably below the $19B he suggested for FY11, in part of an effort to outmaneuver Republicans on deficit issues.  But no actual appropriation bill for NASA other than CR's will pass next year.

Well, the FY12 budget proposal was lower than what he had talked about in FY11, but it wasn't that big of a shocker, and as mentioned above, I was wrong on the CRs.

2.5/5

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6. NASA and Congress will continue to have fights over SDLVs vs. non-SD HLVs.  If Congress does pass any language "clarifying" the situation in the favor of SDHLVs (which will be more Ares-V like than DIRECT-like), it will once again be as a rider to some "must pass" bill, not some honest indication of widespread congressional support outside of HSF districts--but it will nonetheless be painted as such an indication.  Work will start to some degree on an SD-HLV by the end of the year. 

Well, NASA and Congress did continue to have fights.  The second sentence was an "if they do pass any language", which they didn't.  And some sort of SD-HLV work has supposedly started, though even more anemically than I thought.  I'd say .75 of a point.

3.25/6

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7. All of the various small technology development programs under the OCT will be initiated, but with relatively little fanfare.  At least three new Centennial Challenges will be announced, with at least one of them regarding small payload return from ISS or propellant depots.

I was really disappointed by the OCT this year.  They did actually start many of their programs (though not all), but almost all of the money went to existing NASA-led projects.  And I don't think any new CC's were announced (though I could be wrong).  I'd say .25 points for OCT starting a subset of their tech dev projects.

3.5/7

Quote
8. Russians will boost the price of Soyuz after Shuttle retires to somewhere in the $60-80M per seat range.

I think this one is right, correct?  Still toward the lower end of that range, but I think it is in the low $60Ms now.

4.5/8

Quote
9. Either Bolden, Garver, or Holdren will step down by the end of the year.  If it is Bolden, Obama won't actually nominate someone to replace him. 

Flat-out wrong.

4.5/9

Decided to add this a few minutes later:

Quote
10. Someone else will come freaky-close on their predictions this year (maybe Jim?), and people will ask questions like "will Jon get his predictions mojo back for 2012?"

Also wrong. 

Looks like I was around 45% this time around.

~Jon

Online ugordan

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #58 on: 12/26/2011 05:54 pm »
...
5. SpaceX may sign an agreement with a significant partner for exclusive use of a developed Falcon/Dragon system component(s) by the end of 2011. This will alter the landscape for decades to come.
...
-nooneofconsequnce.
I don't know how the heck you got that one right! (Actually... Maybe I do?)

I was trying to figure out what he meant by this the whole time. After the Stratolaunch announcement I'm left wondering if that's what it was or something other (bigger ?) fell through. Somehow, Stratolaunch doesn't strike me as altering the landscape for decades to come, but what do I know.

Offline cd-slam

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #59 on: 12/30/2011 11:12 am »
Oh happy day! Quite good results for 2011! 8)

1) NASA flies the last three shuttle missions successfully, with enormous media coverage on the last flight focusing on the glum workers packing up and leaving.
Correct. All of which disappeared immediately afterward.

Quote
2) One month later, China launches the Shenzhou 8 mission unmanned to a successful docking with the Tiangong module. Plans are announced for manned space stations and other "space spectaculars" (this is hardly a prediction, it's already well known).
Close - about two and a half months.

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3) These events lead to a visceral reaction among the American public decrying the end of US leadership on the world stage. None of this will lead to significant change to the current US programs other than some fiery speeches.
Not correct. No reaction whatsoever.

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5) Messenger's flight to Mercury and Dawn's mission to Vesta will reignite interest in planetary exploration.
I think I earned a point here, both delivered spectacular pictures. Although not much interest.

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6) 1 successful SpaceX mission to the ISS this year, possibly following some anomalies in the rendezvous mission. Cygnus delayed to 2012.
Fail.

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7) Russian MLM pushed even further out to 2013 or later. More interest in Russian commercial plans and potential for a Russian BEO manned commercial mission (in the longer term). The price for a Soyuz seat increases dramatically.
Absolutely spot on - how did I guess? ;)

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8) Successful launch of Soyuz at Kourou.
Correct.

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9) Further Russian-Chinese co-operation on lunar and planetary missions. Talk of manned missions will come to nothing due to Chinese military involvement.
Not correct. I think the Chinese will not be on speaking terms with the Russians at the moment after the loss of their first planetary probe.

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10) More Earth-sized planets to be discovered around other stars.
Absolutely correct - timing was great.

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11) "Planet X"/"Nemesis" Earth-sized KBO will NOT be found; interest in KBOs will diminish as a result.
Correct. Nibiru seems to be invisible for some reason. :D

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12) Pluto will not be reinstated as a planet, but will lead to many new books and increase interest in astronomy.
Well, maybe not many books but at least some cool Neil Tyson videos.

I call that 8 out of 12, not too shabby. Happy New Year everyone!

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