Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 444917 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1120 on: 07/04/2023 06:40 pm »
If anyone want to look up some of the missing masses for stuff already launch on the Manifest Updates table that would be appreciated.  Don't need guesses, just stuff that we know of.  Trying to get it cleaned up a little today.

Online waveney

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1121 on: 07/04/2023 07:26 pm »
https://europeanspaceflight.com/vega-c-return-to-flight-delayed-after-z40-test-failure/ [Jun 29]

Quote:

In mid-March, a source within ESA speaking to European Spaceflight explained that the team working on Sentinel-1C was examining the possibility of qualifying the satellite to fly aboard Falcon 9. With the Sentinel-1 constellation continuing to operate under a reduced capacity, it would not be surprising if this latest delay finally pushes the satellite to the Falcon 9 launch manifest.
« Last Edit: 07/05/2023 03:07 am by zubenelgenubi »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1122 on: 07/06/2023 02:00 am »
Near-term schedule at LC-39A:
July 24 31  Jupiter 3 (launched July 29 UTC)
August 25 15  Crew-7
October 5  Psyche

Cross-post:
In the latest flyover video of the Kennedy space center from NasaSpaceFlight:
[YT video]
They note that pad 39A is being reconfigured for falcon heavy. The video is from [June] the 23rd but on this day we also got news that USSF-52 was pushed to September. The next falcon heavy should therefore be Jupiter-3, but that has a NET for the 8th of august, so have they stopped reconfiguring pad 39A confirming that USSF-52 indeed has been pushed?
I assume the pad is and will stay configured for Falcon Heavy for this launch.
No slipping a F9 launch in the coming days?

There is no droneship to support any Falcon 9 launch from 39A and I do not expect any Falcon 9 from 39A until Crew-7. After that it'll be Falcon Heavy again with Psyche.

Edited July 7.
Further editing
« Last Edit: 08/18/2023 04:53 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1123 on: 07/06/2023 02:34 pm »
Note: The double ASDS landing for Jupiter 3 really eats up the available for most of July.

The Jupiter 3 mission is a beast, it will be interesting to see but it hinders the march to 100 launches per year.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1124 on: 07/08/2023 04:29 pm »
Wonder if SpaceX will launch their two oldest boosters with the next 2 Starlink launches out of pad SLC-40?

Booster 1058.16 is confirmed for the Starlink Group 6-5 launch on July 9th.

So 1060.16 might be the booster for the Starlink Group 5-15 launch on the 13th with the supposed final batch of Starlink ver 1.5 comsats.

If they do, we will have a pair of booster with 16 flights each if the recoveries is nominal.  8)


Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1125 on: 07/08/2023 10:08 pm »
With 1058 beginning flights again, we will likely see 1060 return in the near future as well. We also have two boosters, 1061 and 1062, which will likely both reach 15 flights this month (1062 already assigned to Starlink 5-15). Should we expect these boosters to be taken out of rotation for a period of time for inspection similar to 1058 and 1060 (maybe not as long)? If so, should we therefore expect 1060 to go to the west coast to help out with starlink launches there, effectively replacing 1061 as 1058 replaces 1062 on the east coast? Of course this is contigent on 61 and 62 actually needing a longer refurbishment/inspection after their 15th flights.

Offline OceanCat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1126 on: 07/20/2023 02:25 am »
Anyone heard of SpaceX’s Bandwagon-1 mission? Fleet Space plans to launch Centauri-6 satellite on it in April 2024. From the attached Fleet Space filing of a presentation to the FCC.

SAT-PDR-20220805-00077
« Last Edit: 07/20/2023 02:48 pm by gongora »

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1127 on: 07/20/2023 02:59 am »
Wonder if SpaceX will launch their two oldest boosters with the next 2 Starlink launches out of pad SLC-40?

Booster 1058.16 is confirmed for the Starlink Group 6-5 launch on July 9th.

So 1060.16 might be the booster for the Starlink Group 5-15 launch on the 13th with the supposed final batch of Starlink ver 1.5 comsats.

If they do, we will have a pair of booster with 16 flights each if the recoveries is nominal.  8)

Update on the status of boosters 1058 and booster 1060

Booster 1058 was launch on July 10th (UTC) with Starlink Group 6-5 and booster 1060 was launch on July 16th (UTC) with Starlink Group 5-15. Both boosters were recovered on ASDS drone ships.

Offline FLHerne

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1128 on: 07/20/2023 02:00 pm »
Anyone heard of SpaceX’s Bandwagon-1 mission? Fleet Space plans to launch Centauri-6 satellite on it in April 2024. From the attached Fleet Space filing of a presentation to the FCC.

My wild guess is a setup akin to Transporter but as a rideshare on a customer launch. Maybe with the stack encapsulated or something to protect the primary payload.

PACE seems the obvious candidate if so - launching early 2024 to SSO, and previously reported as looking for a rideshare partner.
« Last Edit: 07/20/2023 02:01 pm by FLHerne »

Offline GewoonLukas_

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1129 on: 07/22/2023 04:09 pm »
A presentation from the US Space Force has USSF-124 on Falcon 9 for September 29th 2023, and USSF-52 on Falcon Heavy for September 1st 2023.

Edit to add: https://sam.gov/api/prod/opps/v3/opportunities/resources/files/89e2561749e04077a264c9092898e8aa/download?&token=
« Last Edit: 07/23/2023 05:49 am by GewoonLukas_ »
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1130 on: 07/22/2023 09:57 pm »
A presentation from the US Space Force has USSF-124 on Falcon 9 for September 29th 2023, and USSF-52 on Falcon Heavy for September 1st 2023.
But it has an NSS Vulcan launch on 30 Jan 24.
The slide seems to be quite optimistic or out of date.
(Or both)
« Last Edit: 07/22/2023 10:00 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Skyrocket

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1131 on: 07/22/2023 10:18 pm »
A presentation from the US Space Force has USSF-124 on Falcon 9 for September 29th 2023, and USSF-52 on Falcon Heavy for September 1st 2023.
But it has an NSS Vulcan launch on 30 Jan 24.
The slide seems to be quite optimistic or out of date.
(Or both)
As it even mentions a launch date for Ravn-X, I would say it is too optimistic.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1132 on: 07/22/2023 10:20 pm »
Those presentations are often out of date but can still have useful info.  We certainly didn't have that F9 mission on the near-term manifest.

Offline rocketenthusiast

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1133 on: 07/23/2023 04:21 am »
A presentation from the US Space Force has USSF-124 on Falcon 9 for September 29th 2023, and USSF-52 on Falcon Heavy for September 1st 2023.
doesn't this mean ussf-31 is a falcon 9 and not a falcon heavy?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1134 on: 07/25/2023 02:06 pm »
50 launches already this year:


Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1135 on: 07/31/2023 05:08 am »
Looks like there will be at least a couple more Cygnus flights on F9:

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1685770418211196928

Quote
NG-19 will also be the last launch of the Antares 230+ launch as Northrop works with Firefly on the Antares 330 with a new first stage. First launch of that has slipped from late 2024 to summer 2025.

Offline GewoonLukas_

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1136 on: 07/31/2023 10:38 am »
Looks like there will be at least a couple more Cygnus flights on F9:

Quote
NG-19 will also be the last launch of the Antares 230+ launch as Northrop works with Firefly on the Antares 330 with a new first stage. First launch of that has slipped from late 2024 to summer 2025.

Still planned for NG-23, so still only 3 Falcon 9 flights as it currently stands:

Quote
Eberly later adds they'd been hoping to launch new Antares 330 in 2024 but now planning it for NG-23 in the summer of 2025.

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1685765441325563904
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1137 on: 08/05/2023 06:08 am »
What will the next Vandenberg Starlink launch after 6-20 be?

6-22, 6-23, and 6-27 were moved to Florida.

Will it be one of the still-higher-numbered Group 6, or the first Group 7?

<snip>
1528-EX-ST-2023  SpaceX Mission 1877 Starlink Group 6-22
1529-EX-ST-2023  SpaceX Mission 1878 Starlink Group 6-23
<snip>
Florida, NET September
ASDS  North  25  41  37   West  75  5  42
1537-EX-ST-2023  SpaceX Mission 1919 Starlink Group 6-27
<snip>
Florida, NET September
ASDS  North  25  41  37   West  75  5  42
Edit: Yes, it's Starlink 7-1.
Edited
« Last Edit: 08/18/2023 04:52 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1138 on: 08/08/2023 10:17 pm »
39A schedule would seem to include

25 Aug CD Crew-7
possible slot
5 Oct ... FH Psyche
possible slot
30 Nov? FH USSF-52
Q3/4? ....... IM-1 Nova-C
Q4 ...... CD Polaris Dawn
Dec .......... CRS-29 (maybe SLC-40 if ready)
Feb ..... CD Crew-8

I am doubtful of any of these being ready for early Sept slot. Will they fit in a Starlink launch or maybe pad 40 4 day turnaround can keep the drone ships busy enough that there is no need/benefit?

Lots of pad configuration work won't help launch rate if pad 40 is out of action for a while for tower building.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1139 on: 08/08/2023 10:32 pm »
39A schedule would seem to include

25 Aug CD Crew-7
possible slot
5 Oct ... FH Psyche
<snip>
Concern was expressed at the Crew-7 news briefing re: that launch being delayed beyond August 27, as that would impinge on preparations for launching Psyche on October 5.  There is no September availability.
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