Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 456259 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1020 on: 03/01/2023 01:16 am »
Do we know of delays to USSF-36?

https://www.losangeles.spaceforce.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2531179/united-states-space-force-awards-four-task-orders-valued-at-385-million-in-supp/
says second quarter of FY23 which is Q1 of 2023 calendar year

They almost never launch at the time stated in the contract award

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1021 on: 03/02/2023 06:26 pm »
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated March 2:
Quote
Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40.
Starlink 5-5 and 6-2?  Last third of March?
« Last Edit: 03/02/2023 06:26 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1022 on: 03/02/2023 07:19 pm »
Quote
.@rivadaspace signs firm contract w/ @SpaceX for 12 Falcon 9 launches, from @SLDelta30, of 300 500-kg @TyvakNanoSat @TerranOrbital B2B broadband sats over 14 months starting April 2025. @ITUradiocomms to decide yes/no late this month.  bit.ly/3y5uDuk

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1631369986303475713

Quote
By number of launches, this is the biggest contract SpaceX has ever won! And over 14 months, no less. I'm fairly sure no other launch provider on Earth could realistically commit to 12 launches in 14 months for a single customer.

Have to agree with Eric that anyone else would struggle with capacity. ULA has a larger Kuiper contract (38 Vulcan launches) but Vulcan flight rate ramp up is currently unknown and hard to see them adding lots more flights in just 2 years.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1023 on: 03/02/2023 08:46 pm »
Quote
.@rivadaspace signs firm contract w/ @SpaceX for 12 Falcon 9 launches, from @SLDelta30, of 300 500-kg @TyvakNanoSat @TerranOrbital B2B broadband sats over 14 months starting April 2025. @ITUradiocomms to decide yes/no late this month.  bit.ly/3y5uDuk

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1631369986303475713

Quote
By number of launches, this is the biggest contract SpaceX has ever won! And over 14 months, no less. I'm fairly sure no other launch provider on Earth could realistically commit to 12 launches in 14 months for a single customer.

Have to agree with Eric that anyone else would struggle with capacity. ULA has a larger Kuiper contract (38 Vulcan launches) but Vulcan flight rate ramp up is currently unknown and hard to see them adding lots more flights in just 2 years.

Wow, impressive win!  That is great backlog.

Other companies may have bid but price and flight rate, no one can touch the SpaceX flight rate.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1024 on: 03/02/2023 09:02 pm »
Quote from: Eric Ralph
By number of launches, this is the biggest contract SpaceX has ever won!
I'm not sure, but I thought NSSL was more launches?  I know it's not quite apples to apples since the launches aren't all assigned at once, but is there a minimum number of launches SpaceX is guaranteed for their 40% cut of the launch pie over the next 5 years?

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1025 on: 03/02/2023 09:27 pm »
Quote from: Eric Ralph
By number of launches, this is the biggest contract SpaceX has ever won!
I'm not sure, but I thought NSSL was more launches?  I know it's not quite apples to apples since the launches aren't all assigned at once, but is there a minimum number of launches SpaceX is guaranteed for their 40% cut of the launch pie over the next 5 years?
Isn't each individual NSSL launch on a separate contract each?

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1026 on: 03/02/2023 11:14 pm »
Quote from: Eric Ralph
By number of launches, this is the biggest contract SpaceX has ever won!
I'm not sure, but I thought NSSL was more launches?  I know it's not quite apples to apples since the launches aren't all assigned at once, but is there a minimum number of launches SpaceX is guaranteed for their 40% cut of the launch pie over the next 5 years?

NSSL is just a little too indefinite for me to consider it a single block-buy contract. It's more like reserving capacity, and the actual contracts are signed one or a few at a time over a period of several years. With deals like Rivada or Iridium, it's much more definitive.

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1027 on: 03/03/2023 12:17 am »
Looking ahead at March; I've included some of my deductions and inferences, marking them with question marks:
Mar 1                       Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 2-7
Mar 2                       KSC LC-39A       JRTI        Crew-6
Mar 9                       CCSFS SLC-40   LZ-1        OneWeb Flight 17
Mar 12                     KSC LC-39A       ASDS      SpX-27
Mar 18                     CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS      SES-18/19
NET mid Mar          Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 2-8
NET Mar 22            Vand SLC-4E       LZ-4       1st SDA launch
NET late Mar          CCSFS SLC-40    ASDS     Starlink 5-5
NET end of? Mar   CCSFS SLC-40    ASDS     Starlink 6-2?

Beyond March:
Apr 7   CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS    Intelsat 40e/TEMPO
Apr 8   KSC LC-39A       all 3 1st stages expended   ViaSat-3 Americas

Extensive edits through March.

It would likely be on the manifest by now, but SLC40 looks like it could fit in a Starlink between yesterday and the 9th.  Say Saturday the 4th.
Don't think so. No landing barge available. One ASDS is supporting the Crew-6 launch. The other ASDS is coming back after recovering the booster from the Starlink 6-1 launch on February 27th.

Not likely to happen but perhaps there would be room for one more launch in following way
Starlink on 7th March (8 days after 27 Feb)
OneWeb 12/13th LZ-1 (5/6 day gap)
SES 18 * 19 on ~18/19th (5/6 day gap)

Offline niwax

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1028 on: 03/03/2023 12:53 am »
Quote from: Eric Ralph
By number of launches, this is the biggest contract SpaceX has ever won!
I'm not sure, but I thought NSSL was more launches?  I know it's not quite apples to apples since the launches aren't all assigned at once, but is there a minimum number of launches SpaceX is guaranteed for their 40% cut of the launch pie over the next 5 years?

NSSL is just a little too indefinite for me to consider it a single block-buy contract. It's more like reserving capacity, and the actual contracts are signed one or a few at a time over a period of several years. With deals like Rivada or Iridium, it's much more definitive.

CRS-1 was also 12 flights as a baseline, later extended to 20.
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1029 on: 03/03/2023 01:01 am »
Looking ahead at March; I've included some of my deductions and inferences, marking them with question marks:
Mar 1                       Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 2-7
Mar 2                       KSC LC-39A       JRTI        Crew-6
Mar 9                       CCSFS SLC-40   LZ-1        OneWeb Flight 17
Mar 12                     KSC LC-39A       ASDS      SpX-27
Mar 18                     CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS      SES-18/19
NET mid Mar          Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 2-8
NET Mar 22            Vand SLC-4E       LZ-4       1st SDA launch
NET late Mar          CCSFS SLC-40    ASDS     Starlink 5-5
NET end of? Mar   CCSFS SLC-40    ASDS     Starlink 6-2?

Beyond March:
Apr 7   CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS    Intelsat 40e/TEMPO
Apr 8   KSC LC-39A       all 3 1st stages expended   ViaSat-3 Americas

Extensive edits through March.

It would likely be on the manifest by now, but SLC40 looks like it could fit in a Starlink between yesterday and the 9th.  Say Saturday the 4th.
Don't think so. No landing barge available. One ASDS is supporting the Crew-6 launch. The other ASDS is coming back after recovering the booster from the Starlink 6-1 launch on February 27th.

Not likely to happen but perhaps there would be room for one more launch in following way
Starlink on 7th March (8 days after 27 Feb)
OneWeb 12/13th LZ-1 (5/6 day gap)
SES 18 * 19 on ~18/19th (5/6 day gap)
There is the SpX-27 launch that need a supporting ASDS.

Offline scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1030 on: 03/03/2023 07:34 am »
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated March 2:
Quote
Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40.
Starlink 5-5 and 6-2?  Last third of March?

Spaceflight Now has set the 5-5 launch date to TBD: https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1031 on: 03/03/2023 12:55 pm »
It would likely be on the manifest by now, but SLC40 looks like it could fit in a Starlink between yesterday and the 9th.  Say Saturday the 4th.
Don't think so. No landing barge available. One ASDS is supporting the Crew-6 launch. The other ASDS is coming back after recovering the booster from the Starlink 6-1 launch on February 27th.

Not likely to happen but perhaps there would be room for one more launch in following way
Starlink on 7th March (8 days after 27 Feb)
OneWeb 12/13th LZ-1 (5/6 day gap)
SES 18 * 19 on ~18/19th (5/6 day gap)
There is the SpX-27 launch that need a supporting ASDS.
That can AFAICS, in theory, be accommodated as follows:

Mar 2                       KSC LC-39A       JRTI        Crew-6
Mar 3                       Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 2-7
?? Mar 7??                CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG    Starlink 6-2?
Mar ?12-13?             CCSFS SLC-40   LZ-1        OneWeb Flight 17
Mar 12                     KSC LC-39A       JRTI      SpX-27
Mar 18/19                CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG      SES-18/19
NET mid Mar            Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 2-8
NET Mar 22              Vand SLC-4E       LZ-4       1st SDA launch
NET 24+                  CCSFS SLC-40    JRTI     Starlink 5-5
NET 30+??               CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG       ??Starlink??
« Last Edit: 03/07/2023 11:13 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1032 on: 03/03/2023 07:04 pm »
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1631746850054352897

Quote
169 mT to orbit this year so far

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1033 on: 03/15/2023 01:23 am »
Why such a big gap after 17 March? Is there a possibility of some Starlink launches filling up the last two weeks of March?

Offline Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1034 on: 03/15/2023 02:22 am »
Why such a big gap after 17 March? Is there a possibility of some Starlink launches filling up the last two weeks of March?

There's a Starlink on the 24th and another one on the 30th. There's also potentially another Vandy launch before the end of the month. That could make March have 9 launches in total - a record.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1035 on: 03/15/2023 02:32 am »
Why such a big gap after 17 March? Is there a possibility of some Starlink launches filling up the last two weeks of March?

There's a Starlink on the 24th and another one on the 30th. There's also potentially another Vandy launch before the end of the month. That could make March have 9 launches in total - a record.

Great news, then. Those donít appear in the Manifest Updates thread master list for some reason, though.
« Last Edit: 03/15/2023 02:34 am by M.E.T. »

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1036 on: 03/15/2023 01:09 pm »
Why such a big gap after 17 March? Is there a possibility of some Starlink launches filling up the last two weeks of March?

There's a Starlink on the 24th and another one on the 30th. There's also potentially another Vandy launch before the end of the month. That could make March have 9 launches in total - a record.

Great news, then. Those donít appear in the Manifest Updates thread master list for some reason, though.

I start my day checking the Manifest thread for changes.  I never get frustrated with gaps though, it is a manual effort by gongora.  I imagine he has a life and a day job and that sometimes there is a lag. 

Just be patient and skim the rest of the mission list for other updates.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Offline Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1037 on: 03/16/2023 12:55 pm »
I made a few recent changes to the upcoming Starlink launches on nextspaceflight. It seems like there was a misunderstanding from me and others on the order of missions from the Cape and it'll be Starlink 5-5 first and then Starlink 6-2. Starlink 6-3 would therefore be no earlier than April in that case.

Apart from that I added as well a few new missions - Starlink 5-5 among those because it wasn't in the website - and put them on the earliest most reasonable month given the FCC permits they've shown up. No guarantees of any of these other missions actually being the launch months for them but I had to put them on the app before it was too late.

If you see any oopsies anywhere on those missions like the notes, location and stuff like that do let me know. It's very too often I go and change something and then forget to change something else different, the forum helps a lot reminding me about it
« Last Edit: 03/16/2023 12:56 pm by Alexphysics »

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1038 on: 03/19/2023 11:24 pm »
Starlink 3-5 allocated 1061.13 and
Starlink 5-10 allocated 1067.11 (before 1067.10 has launched 5-5)

Per nextspaceflight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7115
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7126

Seems rather surprising to me that boosters are known for these but not for O3b mPower 3 & 4 which is listed by Launch photography (likely next from pad 40 after Intelsat 40e, 7 April?).

(Not sure if threads should be opened for 3-5 and 5-10 Starlink launches.) 

Offline Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1039 on: 03/20/2023 11:02 am »
Just updated a few booster assignments on nextspaceflight, specifically for the FH missions this year. 72 and 75 will not fly as FH side boosters as originally planned and will now remain as F9 boosters for the foreseeable future.

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