Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 445789 times)

Offline Josh_from_Canada

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1140 on: 08/08/2023 10:34 pm »
I believe it was also mentioned at the Crew-7 briefing that CRS-29 is going from 39A
Launches Seen: Atlas V OA-7, Falcon 9 Starlink 6-4, Falcon 9 CRS-28,

Online lrk

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1141 on: 08/09/2023 03:08 pm »
39A schedule would seem to include

25 Aug CD Crew-7
possible slot
5 Oct ... FH Psyche
<snip>
Concern was expressed at the Crew-7 news briefing re: that launch being delayed beyond August 27, as that would impinge on preparations for launching Psyche on October 5.  There is no September availability.

Is there any chance of the CAA at SLC-40 being ready, if Crew-7 does slip further? 

Online Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1142 on: 08/09/2023 06:47 pm »
39A schedule would seem to include

25 Aug CD Crew-7
possible slot
5 Oct ... FH Psyche
<snip>
Concern was expressed at the Crew-7 news briefing re: that launch being delayed beyond August 27, as that would impinge on preparations for launching Psyche on October 5.  There is no September availability.

Is there any chance of the CAA at SLC-40 being ready, if Crew-7 does slip further?

The tower is still in pieces and there's no arm that we know of so 0% chance it is ready for a crew launch even in 2023. They already said that CRS-29 will be 39A as well so first Dragon use will be in 2024

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1143 on: 08/09/2023 07:02 pm »
39A schedule would seem to include

25 Aug CD Crew-7
possible slot
5 Oct ... FH Psyche
<snip>
Concern was expressed at the Crew-7 news briefing re: that launch being delayed beyond August 27, as that would impinge on preparations for launching Psyche on October 5.  There is no September availability.

Is there any chance of the CAA at SLC-40 being ready, if Crew-7 does slip further?
1) No, not enough time to build it.
2) Crew-6 must come home by mid-September when its time-on-orbit limit expires. Crew-7 is supposed to arrive at ISS before Crew-6 departure to avoid a gap.

Online crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1144 on: 08/09/2023 08:37 pm »
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=spacex

6-10 Aug 16 SLC-40
6-22 Aug 16 VSFB (thought this was changed to Florida?)
6-11 Aug 21 SLC-40/39A (but 39A seems v doubtful)

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1145 on: 08/10/2023 06:09 pm »
Anyone heard of SpaceX’s Bandwagon-1 mission? Fleet Space plans to launch Centauri-6 satellite on it in April 2024. From the attached Fleet Space filing of a presentation to the FCC.

SAT-PDR-20220805-00077

https://spacenews.com/spacex-to-offer-mid-inclination-smallsat-rideshare-launches/ [Aug 10]

Quote
During a presentation at the 37th Annual Small Satellite Conference here Aug. 9, Jarrod McLachlan, director of rideshare sales at SpaceX, said the company will start launching a series of missions dubbed “Bandwagon” that will complement its existing Transporter line of rideshare missions.

The Bandwagon missions will deliver payloads at altitudes of 550 to 605 kilometers and inclinations of approximately 45 degrees. “It’s a way of meeting the demand for the second most commonly asked orbit,” he said.

Four Bandwagon missions are currently scheduled. According to SpaceX’s rideshare website, those missions are scheduled for April and November 2024 and February and May 2025.
« Last Edit: 08/10/2023 09:06 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1146 on: 08/10/2023 08:26 pm »
From the same SpaceNews article:
Quote
The company has evolved the program since its inception, including a change to a modular “rideshare plate” system for attaching payloads. The new system, he said, simplifies engineering for rideshare missions and increases volume available for payloads.
Is this the first we're hearing of this?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1147 on: 08/10/2023 09:28 pm »
From the same SpaceNews article:
Quote
The company has evolved the program since its inception, including a change to a modular “rideshare plate” system for attaching payloads. The new system, he said, simplifies engineering for rideshare missions and increases volume available for payloads.
Is this the first we're hearing of this?

No, see the last Transporter thread.

Offline Josh_from_Canada

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1148 on: 08/11/2023 08:47 pm »
Since B1064 and B1065 will continue to be used as FH side boosters with their final mission stated to be Europa Clipper, I'm wondering if they'll be used for any other FH missions before then such as USSF-52 or GOES-U

B1064 and B1065 for this mission (confirmed again), will also be reused (and expended) on the Europa Clipper launch:

Quote
Everything is coming together for launch of NASA’s mission to a metal asteroid
8/11/2023

[...]

All of the major components for SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket are undergoing launch preparations at the Kennedy Space Center or Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, according to Jim Hall, a senior mission manger for NASA's Launch Services Program, which brokers rides for NASA spacecraft on commercial rockets.

The Falcon Heavy's two reusable side boosters for the Psyche mission returned from their previous launch on July 28 with a commercial communications satellite. SpaceX is refurbishing those boosters—each with three flights on their record—for the Psyche launch. The side-mounted rockets will be recovered again at SpaceX's Cape Canaveral landing zones after the Psyche launch, and they'll be reused and expended on the launch of NASA's Europa Clipper mission in October 2024.

The center core of the Falcon Heavy rocket slated to launch Psyche is also in Florida for final launch preps, as are the two new aeroshells for the rocket's payload fairing. This will be the eighth flight of a Falcon Heavy rocket, but the first Falcon Heavy with a payload heading for another planetary body.

[...]
Launches Seen: Atlas V OA-7, Falcon 9 Starlink 6-4, Falcon 9 CRS-28,

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1149 on: 08/11/2023 10:54 pm »
All three August Vandenberg Falcon 9 launch slots are spoken for:
Aug 8 UTC       Starlink 6-20
Aug 17 UTC    Starlink 7-1
late Aug           SDA T&TL 0B

Cross-post:
Latest space news article has this launch still scheduled for late August.
SN Space Development Agency shaking up how the military buys satellites [Aug 11]
Quote
Another Falcon 9 had been scheduled to launch 13 more Tranche 0 satellites in June — 10 made by Lockheed Martin and three by York Space — but the mission has been delayed to late August.

I think the SARah and WorldView Legion launches are now NET September.
🤔
« Last Edit: 08/12/2023 04:05 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1150 on: 08/14/2023 04:31 am »
I think the SARah and WorldView Legion launches are now NET September.
🤔

Worldview Legion 1 and 2:
NextSpaceflight, updated August 13:
Launch NET September

SARah 2 and 3:
NextSpaceflight, updated August 13:
NET October = NET Q4 in NextSF jargon

My deduction of the September Vandenberg Falcon 9 launch slots:
1st WorldView Legion launch, Starlink 7-2 and 7-3, in no particular order, dependent on the timely delivery of the Legion satellites.

What if the SDA and Legion LZ-4 recoveries allow four September launches?
« Last Edit: 08/14/2023 04:36 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1151 on: 08/14/2023 04:12 pm »
I think the SARah and WorldView Legion launches are now NET September.
🤔

Worldview Legion 1 and 2:
NextSpaceflight, updated August 13:
Launch NET September

SARah 2 and 3:
NextSpaceflight, updated August 13:
NET October = NET Q4 in NextSF jargon

My deduction of the September Vandenberg Falcon 9 launch slots:
1st WorldView Legion launch, Starlink 7-2 and 7-3, in no particular order, dependent on the timely delivery of the Legion satellites.

What if the SDA and Legion LZ-4 recoveries allow four September launches?

I'm waiting to see staggered RTLS flights out of VSFB.  That would really help with the ASDS cycles.

However, moving a RTLS to the Cape if possible would really help with their ASDS turns.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1152 on: 08/16/2023 11:34 pm »
Cross-post from the Starlink 6-12 thread:
My bold:
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated August 15:
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on August 16 at 8:14 p.m. EDT or later. A Falcon 9 will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on late August. A Falcon 9 will launch the next crew of four astronauts to the International Space Station from pad 39A on August 25 at 3:49 a.m. EDT. The launch time gets 22-26 mins earlier each day. The first stage will land back at the Cape about eight minutes after launch. A Falcon 9 will launch the mPOWER-C mission for SES from pad 40 on August 27 in the late afternoon EDT. Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches from pad 40.
Will there be any non-Starlink September Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida?  Apparently not (assuming the next mPower launch is not delayed into September).

And, all said launches will be from SLC-40, with no apparent (at this juncture) need for any Static Fires, and with all first stage recoveries via the two ASDS, and with those recovery coordinates all the same.

An interesting parameter set.

How many SLC-40 September launches will there be?  Six to eight, perhaps.

Of course, real life problems will intrude, such as hurricanes. 🌀
« Last Edit: 08/16/2023 11:48 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online GewoonLukas_

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1153 on: 08/17/2023 05:35 am »
Will there be any non-Starlink September Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida?  Apparently not (assuming the next mPower launch is not delayed into September).

Possibly USSF-124 if that September 29th launchdate from that recent presentation holds.
Lukas C. H. • Hobbyist Mission Patch Artist 🎨 • May the force be with you my friend, Ad Astra Per Aspera ✨️

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1154 on: 08/21/2023 05:29 am »
Kennedy LC-39A
Aug 26 25        F9   Crew-7
Sep 4 UTC       F9   Starlink 6-12
Oct 5                FH   Psyche
Nov 1               F9    SpX-29
Nov 15-20       F9    IM-1
NET Nov 30    FH   USSF-52
Eo'23/Bo'24    F9    Polaris Dawn
Jan 10             F9    AX-3
Early Feb         F9    Crew-8
<open launch slot here?>
Apr                   FH   GOES-U

Edited August 27/ September 4
« Last Edit: 09/24/2023 05:15 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1155 on: 08/23/2023 05:00 pm »
Will there be any non-Starlink September Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida?  Apparently not (assuming the next mPower launch is not delayed into September).
Possibly USSF-124 if that September 29th launchdate from that recent presentation holds.
And now, O3b mPower is listed NET October/NET Q4, and USSF-124 is listed NET November.

So, we have wall-to-wall 🧱 September Florida Starlink launches! 🍎
« Last Edit: 09/22/2023 05:10 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1156 on: 08/28/2023 04:48 pm »
Still possible to get 10 flights in August.  But only just by hours, still hugely impressive.

September looks pretty open, how many Starlink flights can SpaceX crank out with an open month, but during hurricane season?

Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1157 on: 09/03/2023 08:11 pm »
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1698427167065997542

Quote
Based on the Falcon launch plan for next year, SpaceX will deliver ~90% of all Earth payload to orbit.

Starship will take that to >99% in future years.

These magnitudes are madness to consider, but necessary to make consciousness multiplanetary.

Offline raptorx2

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1158 on: 09/05/2023 09:07 pm »
NET September 25 - Starlink group 8-1 (x21) flight ?? [V2 Mini L??] - Falcon 9 (OCISLY) - Vandenberg SLC-4E

Is this to 96.9°?  Seems to be the only thing left except for the retro-grade orbits in Gen. 2.  (outside of the 32 degree shell which I don't think would provide much "bang for the buck" from Vandenberg?

Seems like this may be the fastest way forward for a Global D2D, SCS system.  (like Iridium)

Licensed for 120 planes with 30 per plane @ 360km.

96.9°.  A 'natural Home Run" from Vandenberg

« Last Edit: 09/05/2023 09:15 pm by raptorx2 »

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1159 on: 09/08/2023 04:17 am »
So I popped in to check the SpaceX launch manifest today.

What happened after 3 Sep? First time I’ve seen the entire future manifest without a single confirmed date.  SpaceX keeping their cards close to their chest for now?

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