Author Topic: Predictions for Starship IFT-3  (Read 35398 times)

Offline JohnsterSpaceProgram

Predictions for Starship IFT-3
« on: 12/05/2023 12:17 am »
Since it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59531.0), although this one will be a little different.

You can either put your predictions in a reply to this post, or add it to my IFT-3 predictions spreadsheet, which you can fill out here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLzdPCsyB7oZgIODzBblGvzBOaSipdPt4frOHPzWNXI;D

Anyways, here are my predictions:
Flight Pairing: Booster 10 And Ship 28 (B10/S28)
Launch Date: Sometime in January 2024
Mission Success Chance: 75% (The hotstaging would most likely be successful again, but maybe the booster experiences a RUD near the end of the boostback burn or during the simulated landing burn over water, and the ship survives all the way to reentry but is then lost during reentry due to losing too many heat shield tiles).

I could end up being totally wrong (especially in regards to the launch date prediction, which is a bit ambitious, but not totally impossible given the current state of the launch site), but those are just my predictions. Now I'd like to hear what your predictions are for the third integrated flight of SpaceX's Starship vehicle.  :)
« Last Edit: 01/17/2024 08:14 pm by zubenelgenubi »
I'm JohnsterSpaceProgram and I like watching Starship development! The first Starship orbital test flight was amazing to watch and I can't wait for future orbital flights!

Offline Ke8ort

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #1 on: 12/05/2023 12:42 am »
First time posting on NSF, so hello everyone! Here’s my predictions:

Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: late January, early February 2024
Mission Success Chance: Successful hot staging, but late RUD of super heavy during boostback or landing. Successful partial orbit from Starship, successful reentry but harder than expected landing into the drink.

I may be completely wrong as well, but we shall see! Looking forward to this launch though!

Online catdlr

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #2 on: 12/05/2023 01:40 am »
First time posting on NSF, so hello everyone! Here’s my predictions:

Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: late January, early February 2024
Mission Success Chance: Successful hot staging, but late RUD of super heavy during boostback or landing. Successful partial orbit from Starship, successful reentry but harder than expected landing into the drink.

I may be completely wrong as well, but we shall see! Looking forward to this launch though!

Ke8ort,  Welcome to the Forum.  Vote well.  I did, did you!!
« Last Edit: 12/05/2023 01:44 am by catdlr »
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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #3 on: 12/05/2023 01:49 am »
Since it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread


JohnsterSpaceProgram,
I see you have logged 30 posts, and most of them are in the Road Closure notices. We thank you for doing that. If you have not done so, please allow me to welcome you to the forum. Thanks for what you do.

Best
Tony
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Offline lightleviathan

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #4 on: 12/05/2023 02:00 am »
Vehicles: B10/S28
Launch Date: Late January
Mission Success Chance: Successful hot-staging, and successful boostback. Booster fails to complete landing burn, and Ship goes into sub-orbit. Propellant transfer demo has heavy slosh and messes with the task structure of the Ship and it fails on entry.

Offline TomH

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #5 on: 12/05/2023 02:44 am »
Successful partial orbit from Starship, successful reentry but harder than expected landing into the drink.

Profile for IFT-2 was to be no flip or landing burn. If the same for IFT-3, that would simply be a belly-buster @ terminal velocity.

Offline zodiacchris

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #6 on: 12/05/2023 02:51 am »
We all seem to be pretty aligned here! My take is third time’s a charm, B10/S28 launch successfully, good staging and boost back, but no soft water landing for B10 despite some of the engines lighting up.
S28 reaches suborbital trajectory as planned,  Success!!
Ship deorbits but gets lost at some stage as it re-enters, sending back valuable data as a parting gift…

Online ZachS09

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #7 on: 12/05/2023 03:36 am »
Vehicles: B10/S28
Launch date: Somewhere between last week of January and first week of February
Mission success probability: 95%.

Hot-staging succeeds again, and the booster makes a soft splashdown in the gulf as intended. Ship 28 goes suborbital as planned in addition to a successful propellant transfer test. But the tiles on Ship 28 don't protect it during reentry and it breaks up fairly early during entry interface.
« Last Edit: 12/05/2023 03:36 am by ZachS09 »
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Offline WindWatcherX

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #8 on: 12/05/2023 03:36 am »
Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: Late January
Mission Success Chance: 85%: Successful hot staging, super heavy completes boostback but no softlanding in the Gulf.  Successful 3+ orbits from Starship, data on fuel movement between tanks.  Successful de-orbit burn but reentry has late breakup but data collected.

Offline Twark_Main

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #9 on: 12/05/2023 03:44 am »
28+10, February, It blows up on the pad, so 0%.


Y'all are forgetting that for SpaceX, the fourth time's the charm.  :)
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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #10 on: 12/05/2023 03:47 am »
Booster B10
Ship S28
Launch Date FEBRUARY 2024
Booster RUD Chance 10% - could happen anywhere   
Ship RUD Chance 75% - Likely Early in Reentry
Flight Success Chance 95%
What Would You Consider As A "Successful" Mission? Flying fully orbital missions next.
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Offline Perchlorate

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #11 on: 12/05/2023 03:51 am »
Probability of "Success": 90%

I'm going a little differently.  I believe 10/28 will launch in mid-February 2024, Ship 28 will complete its burn to near-orbit, decelerate and survive reentry with minor to moderate damage.  I believe there will be tiles lost, but no so many that the robust stainless steel Ship will fail structurally.  I believe it will arrive at the ocean more or less where it's supposed to, but the damage due to lost tiles may damage the ability to properly ignite engines and rotate after the bellyflop.

I'm a little more pessimistic about Booster 10.  Not knowing the data that SpaceX is now dissecting, I fear it will take 2-3 more tries before they find the "secret sauce" of how to hot-stage, then flip, keep some engines burning and start up others.  I'd love to be wrong about that part...
« Last Edit: 12/05/2023 04:07 am by Perchlorate »
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Offline llanitedave

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #12 on: 12/05/2023 04:22 am »
Aren't they changing the way they attach the tiles for this particular ship?  For me, I am no more capable of predicting the outcome than I am prophecy, so I will only say I believe they will correct the issues that caused the loss of the IFT-2 vehicles.  What new issues may bedevil them, I can't say, but I'm hopeful that the outcome will be progress in the right direction.
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Offline JohnsterSpaceProgram

Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #13 on: 12/05/2023 04:48 am »
Since it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59531.0), although this one will be a little different.

You can either put your predictions in a reply to this post, or add it to my IFT-3 predictions spreadsheet, which you can fill out here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLzdPCsyB7oZgIODzBblGvzBOaSipdPt4frOHPzWNXI;D

Anyways, here are my predictions:
Flight Pairing: Booster 10 And Ship 28 (B10/S28)
Launch Date: Sometime in January 2024
Mission Success Chance: 75% (The hotstaging would most likely be successful again, but maybe the booster experiences a RUD near the end of the boostback burn or during the simulated landing burn over water, and the ship survives all the way to reentry but is then lost during reentry due to losing too many heat shield tiles).

I could end up being totally wrong (especially in regards to the launch date prediction, which is a bit ambitious, but not totally impossible given the current state of the launch site), but those are just my predictions. Now I'd like to hear what your predictions are for the third integrated flight of SpaceX's Starship vehicle.  :)

And here's my prediction on what the testing and work flow could end up being like for Booster 10 and Ship 28 for the testing that remains ahead of launch (this would be in the best case scenario, where no major issues occur during either vehicle's test campaigns):

Ship 28's work is completed >>> S28 rolls out and is installed on the suborbital pad for static fire testing >>> Booster 10's work is completed >>> B10 rolls out and is installed on the orbital launch mount for static fire testing >>> S28 completes a 6 engine spin prime & static fire not long after B10's installation on the OLM >>> B10 completes a 33 engine spin prime & static fire not long after S28's static fire >>> S28 is removed from the suborbital pad, any needed work following the static fire is completed, and the ship is then moved over to the orbital launch site, followed by the stacking of S28 on B10 for the first time >>> The B10 & S28 full stack complete a wet dress rehearsal >>> S28 is destacked from B10 and any needed work is completed while waiting for a launch license >>> Following the approval of a launch license, a target launch date is announced followed by the arming of the FTS on both vehicles not long afterwards >>> Shortly before the first launch attempt, S28 and B10 and stacked for the last time ahead of that attempt >>> The launch of IFT-3 either occurs on the first attempt, or is scrubbed to a later date.

Seeing how IFT-2 launched on the first attempt, I wouldn't be surprised if that is also the case for IFT-3. I would also like to see your predictions for what you think the testing & work flow for both vehicles could end up being like.
I'm JohnsterSpaceProgram and I like watching Starship development! The first Starship orbital test flight was amazing to watch and I can't wait for future orbital flights!

Offline Riccardo11

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #14 on: 12/05/2023 07:28 am »
I think they will mostly get it right: successful separation, ship reaches orbit and survives re-entry. I am also a bit pessimistic about the SH landing.

Contrary to many posts above, I think the test will be later, probably April 2024.

Offline RobLynn

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #15 on: 12/05/2023 07:43 am »
I'll say all the way in late January '24.  Lots of tile loss on SS but underlying blanket will keep it flying and it will make it to virtual over-ocean landing OK, (even if resultant hot spots would have condemned airframe)  SH will do everything it needs to now that they are aware of and can mitigate issues in the flip.
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Offline Lampyridae

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #16 on: 12/05/2023 08:10 am »
Flight Pairing: B10/S28
Launch Date: Early February 2024
Mission Success Chance:
Booster RUD chance: 66% (completes flip but most likely has engine failure during landing burn)
Ship RUD chance: 30% (completes burn but fails during re-entry)
Overall mission success: 70% (weighted for Ship accomplishments, but some minor issues may crop up such as failure to demonstrate prop transfer, deploy cheese wheel from payload bay etc)
« Last Edit: 12/05/2023 08:11 am by Lampyridae »

Offline JohnsterSpaceProgram

Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #17 on: 12/05/2023 11:53 am »
And like with that other IFT-2 predictions spreadsheet, when something major happens relating to IFT-3 (such as the approval of a launch license, or when a wet dress rehearsal occurs), I'll add it to the IFT-3 predictions sheet so everyone can see which predictions were made before certain events happened. As an example, they will look similar to what is shown in the image attached to this post.
I'm JohnsterSpaceProgram and I like watching Starship development! The first Starship orbital test flight was amazing to watch and I can't wait for future orbital flights!

Offline martiantime

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #18 on: 12/05/2023 01:20 pm »
Everybody names S28, nobody names S26.
Ok, let it be my prediction - S26.
Let it be my little support for those who worked on the S26 and prepared it... for something.
In my humble opinion

Offline Ke8ort

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #19 on: 12/05/2023 01:47 pm »
Don't know if this is the right place to ask this, but I figured I'd ask here since a lot of people have been predicting about it.

Do we know what material the TPS is made of? Are there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there? I don't know how hot the surface behind the TPS gets, but COE mismatch is a big deal for mounting composite components to metal surfaces.

Again, don't know if this is the right place to ask. If someone has already answered this somewhere else on the forum, please redirect me! I can also delete this post if it's in the wrong place.

Online InterestedEngineer

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #20 on: 12/05/2023 04:05 pm »
Don't know if this is the right place to ask this, but I figured I'd ask here since a lot of people have been predicting about it.

Do we know what material the TPS is made of? Are there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there? I don't know how hot the surface behind the TPS gets, but COE mismatch is a big deal for mounting composite components to metal surfaces.

Again, don't know if this is the right place to ask. If someone has already answered this somewhere else on the forum, please redirect me! I can also delete this post if it's in the wrong place.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50748.msg2543885#new

Quote
Do we know what material the TPS is made of?

Asked and answered multiple times on that thread.  A bit of tedious reading I'm afraid.

Quote
Are there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there?

That sounds like a new question (I think, not sure what a mold line is on a Starship), you should ask it on that thread


Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #21 on: 12/05/2023 04:39 pm »
Made my predictions.

I think IFT-3 will improve on the flight profile.  I think the booster will be mostly successful with a boostback and landing burn.  Maybe off trajectory at most.

Starship will make a successful trajectory through a full burn.  But will fail during re-entry.

I predicted February for the flight as I think there could be some time required to make adjustments to the Ship from what is learned from IFT-2.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Ke8ort

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #22 on: 12/05/2023 04:50 pm »
Don't know if this is the right place to ask this, but I figured I'd ask here since a lot of people have been predicting about it.

Do we know what material the TPS is made of? Are there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there? I don't know how hot the surface behind the TPS gets, but COE mismatch is a big deal for mounting composite components to metal surfaces.

Again, don't know if this is the right place to ask. If someone has already answered this somewhere else on the forum, please redirect me! I can also delete this post if it's in the wrong place.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50748.msg2543885#new

Quote
Do we know what material the TPS is made of?

Asked and answered multiple times on that thread.  A bit of tedious reading I'm afraid.

Quote
Are there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there?

That sounds like a new question (I think, not sure what a mold line is on a Starship), you should ask it on that thread

Thanks you! I was looking on the engineering thread but wasn't finding much info. Guess I needed to look a little deeper!

Offline schuttle89

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #23 on: 12/05/2023 06:29 pm »
Made my predictions.

I think IFT-3 will improve on the flight profile.  I think the booster will be mostly successful with a boostback and landing burn.  Maybe off trajectory at most.

Starship will make a successful trajectory through a full burn.  But will fail during re-entry.

I predicted February for the flight as I think there could be some time required to make adjustments to the Ship from what is learned from IFT-2.
Agreed, small chance of end of January but Feb 12 is my guess

Online Reynold

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #24 on: 12/05/2023 07:35 pm »
Put my entry in the spreadsheet as well, but I predict;

Launch in first half of January,
Booster boostback burn works this time, 20% chance of failure at booster landing burn
Ship makes it to (quasi) orbit, gets to Hawaii, has some combination of burnthrough and control issues on reentry and does not survive intact to splashdown. 

I would still consider this a success so they can get data on boostback and reentry.  If all they can do is reuse the booster in 2-3 more test flights and control the Starship in orbit and deorbit so it is safe, they can do what they need for HLS without a problem even without reuse. 

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #25 on: 12/05/2023 07:39 pm »
Put my entry in the spreadsheet as well, but I predict;

Launch in first half of January,
Booster boostback burn works this time, 20% chance of failure at booster landing burn
Ship makes it to (quasi) orbit, gets to Hawaii, has some combination of burnthrough and control issues on reentry and does not survive intact to splashdown. 

I would still consider this a success so they can get data on boostback and reentry.  If all they can do is reuse the booster in 2-3 more test flights and control the Starship in orbit and deorbit so it is safe, they can do what they need for HLS without a problem even without reuse. 

I agree, if your prediction comes true that would be a wildly successful test flight.

I think the first booster catch attempt could be 2-3 flights away and I think they will successfully catch at least one in 2024.  Not sure about reuse though.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline wes_wilson

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #26 on: 12/05/2023 07:54 pm »
I'm into the sheet with a bet on March 8th, 2024.
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Offline ztkraptor

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #27 on: 12/05/2023 09:57 pm »
I'm not sure of the ships or the timeline, but I predict complete failure. It will clear the tower, but will RUD about 1min 30sec into flight.

Source: I'm from the future.

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #28 on: 12/05/2023 11:26 pm »
I'm not sure of the ships or the timeline, but I predict complete failure. It will clear the tower, but will RUD about 1min 30sec into flight.

Source: I'm from the future.
Would you just check on the ship and booster #'s for me please.

Offline baddux

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #29 on: 12/06/2023 12:03 am »
Launch date: 15. April 2024

Outcome: successful full burn of Starship and target "orbit", booster lasts longer than previously but is destroyed before water landing, ship destroyed before attempted landing

Edit: in other words after this launch, they would be able to put a space station with volume of the ISS to LEO
« Last Edit: 12/06/2023 12:06 am by baddux »

Offline wes_wilson

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #30 on: 12/06/2023 12:39 am »
Launch date: 15. April 2024

Outcome: successful full burn of Starship and target "orbit", booster lasts longer than previously but is destroyed before water landing, ship destroyed before attempted landing

Edit: in other words after this launch, they would be able to put a space station with volume of the ISS to LEO

No offense, but this is a crazy guess.  If you're going into April it would no doubt be April 20th. 
@SpaceX "When can I buy my ticket to Mars?"

Online ZachS09

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #31 on: 12/06/2023 12:54 am »
Launch date: 15. April 2024

Outcome: successful full burn of Starship and target "orbit", booster lasts longer than previously but is destroyed before water landing, ship destroyed before attempted landing

Edit: in other words after this launch, they would be able to put a space station with volume of the ISS to LEO

No offense, but this is a crazy guess.  If you're going into April it would no doubt be April 20th. 

Not this time. I don't think SpaceX would go for the 20th again if IFT-3 slips to next April.
« Last Edit: 12/06/2023 12:55 am by ZachS09 »
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Online notthebobo

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #32 on: 12/06/2023 01:17 pm »
This may help you find your answer: Google for "spacex starship thermal tile materials site:nasaspaceflight.com"

Offline Star-Dust

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #33 on: 12/06/2023 01:27 pm »
Launch date: 15. April 2024

Outcome: successful full burn of Starship and target "orbit", booster lasts longer than previously but is destroyed before water landing, ship destroyed before attempted landing

Edit: in other words after this launch, they would be able to put a space station with volume of the ISS to LEO

Same outcome for me, but I would say launch earlier, early february if no permit FAA issues.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #34 on: 12/06/2023 02:06 pm »
I’m gonna wait until the end of December to make predictions. ;)

I want to see some word about the mishap report so I get some feeling on where they are in fixing everything.

Depending on how they’re feeling about the mitigations, I can see the flight going well for everything (including the booster until splashdown) except with a big ol’ question mark for reentry.

They’ve done a lot more work on S28 to at least give it a fighting chance of not all the tiles coming off right away (they did a pull test on all the tiles IIRC this time, unlike S25), but I am still pretty mistrusting of this method of tile attachment. They have a new tile attachment method coming up, and that may be the point where the tiles can be actually trusted, but we gotta see based on static fires (the old method would always have some tiles fall off… if the new method shows no tile failures during static firing, that’s a vote of confidence).

Of course failure is still fairly likely. 20-30% chance of failure on the way up? 95% success probability (which is roughly average for launch vehicles past the initial 5 launches) is way too confident at this point.

I’m not making predictions before a static fire.
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Offline alugobi

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #35 on: 12/06/2023 06:34 pm »
I’m gonna wait until the end of December to make predictions. ;)

I want to see some word about the mishap report so I get some feeling on where they are in fixing everything.
In addition, they're doing a lot of groundwork at the site.  New tanks coming in, need to be plumbed.  If the others arrive, will they take down the existing vertical tanks?  Now might be the time.

Wall construction along the road, too.  It will take several weeks to form it and pour it. 

Also, let's see if they return booster(s) to the bays for upgrade work.  They might be satisfied with the armoring underneath around the engines, but they might have to mitigate the tankage/plumbing to address the engine out problem. 

Bottom line:  it might be a while.

Offline Steve G

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #36 on: 12/06/2023 07:04 pm »
I think they will master Super Heavy on the next flight, and will have figured out the issue causing the RUD on Flight 2. It's Starship that's going to be the problem child. Everything from determining why it failed to get to orbit, then flying it through an Hypersonic regime on reentry, then landing on target. None of the landing tests they did with Starship went supersonic. And that's the easy part compared to what comes next.

Offline First Mate Rummey

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #37 on: 12/07/2023 03:41 pm »
Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: March 2024
Mission Success Chance: 75%

I think most likely mission outcome would be better than IFT-2, however both SS and Booster will still fail to properly (water-)land.
« Last Edit: 12/07/2023 03:43 pm by First Mate Rummey »

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #38 on: 12/07/2023 04:09 pm »
I think they will master Super Heavy on the next flight, and will have figured out the issue causing the RUD on Flight 2. It's Starship that's going to be the problem child. Everything from determining why it failed to get to orbit, then flying it through an Hypersonic regime on reentry, then landing on target. None of the landing tests they did with Starship went supersonic. And that's the easy part compared to what comes next.

I agree, I think they will do very well with the SH on the next flight.  If they can hit the virtual marks for return and positioning then onward to attempting a catch, which I think could be IFT-4 or 5.

SS, achieving a nominal trajectory insertion will be a huge win, but I think they will be working on the heatshield for awhile to come.  Any entry data would be helpful though.


Edit: The latest SpaceX video drop makes me wonder if the first half of January is plausible.  Get the HLS folks through the holidays then back to Starbase on the week of Jan 8th.


Who knows, will be wild.
« Last Edit: 12/07/2023 07:46 pm by wannamoonbase »
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline TomH

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #39 on: 12/10/2023 05:53 am »
Aren't they changing the way they attach the tiles for this particular ship?  For me, I am no more capable of predicting the outcome than I am prophecy, so I will only say I believe they will correct the issues that caused the loss of the IFT-2 vehicles.  What new issues may bedevil them, I can't say, but I'm hopeful that the outcome will be progress in the right direction.

Is this what you're referring to? I don't think there is any change yet. Click on image and zoom in.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50748.msg2547223#msg2547223
« Last Edit: 12/10/2023 06:01 am by TomH »

Offline kennerado

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #40 on: 12/10/2023 11:59 am »
Allegedly, Ship 28 (and every ship after) has a different method of title application where they test EACH tile during installation, which is something that didn't happen previously.

Offline matthewkantar

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #41 on: 12/10/2023 07:47 pm »
Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: 7:00am, January 28th Texas time.
Mission Success Chance:%100

One hundred percent chance of success because even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #42 on: 12/10/2023 09:42 pm »
Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: 7:00am, January 28th Texas time.
Mission Success Chance:%100

One hundred percent chance of success because even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful.

Not if they are expected to do cryogenic propellant transfer.

I appreciate the 100% prediction though.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline litton4

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #43 on: 12/11/2023 11:37 am »
Even if they just repeat IFT-2 with 33 engines to successful stage separation, it will be a success, since they will have verified that it wasn't just luck to get that working.

SS to orbit (with or without it's tiles) will be a major win.

Booster RUD, less of an issue, but if the relight does better, that will be progress too.
Remember it took them a number of attempts before SS could do a flip and burn......
Dave Condliffe

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #44 on: 12/11/2023 11:53 am »
Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: 7:00am, January 28th Texas time.
Mission Success Chance:%100

One hundred percent chance of success because even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful.

Not if they are expected to do cryogenic propellant transfer.

I appreciate the 100% prediction though.

I don’t think the term “success” would apply to a future flight that falls shorter than its predecessors.

Did you think Falcon 1 Flight 3 was another success even after Flight 2 nearly reached orbit?
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline TergenFlerg

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #45 on: 12/11/2023 11:53 am »
Full success.

Offline JohnsterSpaceProgram

Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #46 on: 12/15/2023 10:26 pm »
Since it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59531.0), although this one will be a little different.

You can either put your predictions in a reply to this post, or add it to my IFT-3 predictions spreadsheet, which you can fill out here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLzdPCsyB7oZgIODzBblGvzBOaSipdPt4frOHPzWNXI;D

Anyways, here are my predictions:
Flight Pairing: Booster 10 And Ship 28 (B10/S28)
Launch Date: Sometime in January 2024
Mission Success Chance: 75% (The hotstaging would most likely be successful again, but maybe the booster experiences a RUD near the end of the boostback burn or during the simulated landing burn over water, and the ship survives all the way to reentry but is then lost during reentry due to losing too many heat shield tiles).

I could end up being totally wrong (especially in regards to the launch date prediction, which is a bit ambitious, but not totally impossible given the current state of the launch site), but those are just my predictions. Now I'd like to hear what your predictions are for the third integrated flight of SpaceX's Starship vehicle.  :)

And here's my prediction on what the testing and work flow could end up being like for Booster 10 and Ship 28 for the testing that remains ahead of launch (this would be in the best case scenario, where no major issues occur during either vehicle's test campaigns):

Ship 28's work is completed >>> S28 rolls out and is installed on the suborbital pad for static fire testing >>> Booster 10's work is completed >>> B10 rolls out and is installed on the orbital launch mount for static fire testing >>> S28 completes a 6 engine spin prime & static fire not long after B10's installation on the OLM >>> B10 completes a 33 engine spin prime & static fire not long after S28's static fire >>> S28 is removed from the suborbital pad, any needed work following the static fire is completed, and the ship is then moved over to the orbital launch site, followed by the stacking of S28 on B10 for the first time >>> The B10 & S28 full stack complete a wet dress rehearsal >>> S28 is destacked from B10 and any needed work is completed while waiting for a launch license >>> Following the approval of a launch license, a target launch date is announced followed by the arming of the FTS on both vehicles not long afterwards >>> Shortly before the first launch attempt, S28 and B10 and stacked for the last time ahead of that attempt >>> The launch of IFT-3 either occurs on the first attempt, or is scrubbed to a later date.

Seeing how IFT-2 launched on the first attempt, I wouldn't be surprised if that is also the case for IFT-3. I would also like to see your predictions for what you think the testing & work flow for both vehicles could end up being like.

Well, it looks like my first prediction about Ship 28 rolling out to the suborbital pad before Booster 10 ended up being correct.  :)

Also, credit to NSF for their livestream covering the S28 rollout that is linked below (it's the second link). And also the image screen-captured from Starbase Live.

« Last Edit: 12/15/2023 10:27 pm by JohnsterSpaceProgram »
I'm JohnsterSpaceProgram and I like watching Starship development! The first Starship orbital test flight was amazing to watch and I can't wait for future orbital flights!

Offline Greg Hullender

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #47 on: 12/16/2023 02:15 pm »
Remember it took them a number of attempts before SS could do a flip and burn......
I dunno. As I recall, it flipped and burned a lot! :-)

Offline litton4

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #48 on: 12/17/2023 04:38 pm »
Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: 7:00am, January 28th Texas time.
Mission Success Chance:%100

One hundred percent chance of success because even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful.

Not if they are expected to do cryogenic propellant transfer.

I appreciate the 100% prediction though.

I don’t think the term “success” would apply to a future flight that falls shorter than its predecessors.

Did you think Falcon 1 Flight 3 was another success even after Flight 2 nearly reached orbit?

It's all about uncovering failure modes.

The more that can be found and fixed early in the programme, the better.

So even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok, so long as they were for different reasons compared to the first time.
Dave Condliffe

Offline steveleach

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #49 on: 12/17/2023 10:55 pm »
Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: 7:00am, January 28th Texas time.
Mission Success Chance:%100

One hundred percent chance of success because even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful.

Not if they are expected to do cryogenic propellant transfer.

I appreciate the 100% prediction though.

I don’t think the term “success” would apply to a future flight that falls shorter than its predecessors.

Did you think Falcon 1 Flight 3 was another success even after Flight 2 nearly reached orbit?

It's all about uncovering failure modes.

The more that can be found and fixed early in the programme, the better.

So even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok, so long as they were for different reasons compared to the first time.
This is all straying off topic, but SpaceX will know what their goals for each mission are, and those goals may not always be obvious to us outsiders. It is quite likely that they will have a primary and numerous secondary goals for each mission. I imagine they would view any launch that meets its primary goal as a success, regardless of how many secondary goals are met, or whether it ends up with a RUD or not. But even failures, that don't achieve their primary goal, can still be valuable if they learn something.

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #50 on: 12/18/2023 02:02 am »
It's all about uncovering failure modes.

The more that can be found and fixed early in the programme, the better.

So even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok, so long as they were for different reasons compared to the first time.

Concur, with a major caveat. If B10 or S28 fail and the cause of the failure was something introduced by changes intended to fix a B9 or S25 failure mode, this is churn rather than progress.
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Offline litton4

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #51 on: 12/19/2023 08:56 am »
It's all about uncovering failure modes.

The more that can be found and fixed early in the programme, the better.

So even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok, so long as they were for different reasons compared to the first time.

Concur, with a major caveat. If B10 or S28 fail and the cause of the failure was something introduced by changes intended to fix a B9 or S25 failure mode, this is churn rather than progress.

We saw that with the Starship 10km flights, different causes of relight failures caused when they tried different things.
Prototyping what the boosters are now attempting.......
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Offline lykos

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #52 on: 12/20/2023 03:10 pm »
It is a test article.
Every new data is a sort of success.

Offline TomH

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #53 on: 12/21/2023 03:52 am »
....even flights with multiple explosions are going to be deemed successful.

...even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok...

...failures, that don't achieve their primary goal, can still be valuable if they learn something.

It is a test article.
Every new data is a sort of success.

I agree with all of these statements. Unfortunately, the people who filed that lawsuit are going to continue filing supplemental complaints every single time a flight doesn't go as smoothly as a commercial airlines flight.

No intent to be off topic, it's just that some people lacking the necessary background do not understand what success means when it is within the experimental realm. So, unless everything goes as hoped with no anomalies, that set of people, who see things differently than we, will continue to scream complete failure no matter what. Even aerospace competitors who know better take advantage of and add to that sentiment. Hopefully, SpaceX will ramp up a better PR machine aimed at press and social media to let the public know why these flights are a success. All of us understand; even the court will probably understand. It's getting the public to understand that could be very important.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2023 03:59 am by TomH »

Offline alugobi

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #54 on: 12/21/2023 04:20 am »
The public doesn't care about spaceflight. Only explosions and bad news for Musk get attention when it comes to Space X.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #55 on: 12/21/2023 04:53 am »
I’ve recently realized that SpaceX doesn’t bother with correcting that misconception because it makes their competitors less likely to take them seriously.
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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #56 on: 12/21/2023 05:24 am »
It's all about uncovering failure modes.

The more that can be found and fixed early in the programme, the better.

So even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok, so long as they were for different reasons compared to the first time.

Concur, with a major caveat. If B10 or S28 fail and the cause of the failure was something introduced by changes intended to fix a B9 or S25 failure mode, this is churn rather than progress.

I agree that the current 2 test flights have felt like churn.   F9 had lots of successes before CRS-7 or AMOS-6.  At some point the reliability needs to be good enough to complete multiple missions & define a set of proven parameters for success.  Improbable failure modes will eventually uncover themselves in more explosions, or hopefully, in data that shows where gaps are and how to continuously improve following flights.

I do think IFT-2 was a very large step function better the first flight.  I predict an equivalent jump in overall performance for IFT-3.  That would see either the booster return to precision landing ( however defined) or Starship makes it to orbit & has a successful re-entry, and a coin toss on successful landing.  Falling short of orbit again would be back to churning through failure modes.

Offline steveleach

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #57 on: 12/21/2023 11:00 am »
It's all about uncovering failure modes.

The more that can be found and fixed early in the programme, the better.

So even if B10 fails during the flip/boostback and/or S28 activates FTS or RUDs, it's ok, so long as they were for different reasons compared to the first time.

Concur, with a major caveat. If B10 or S28 fail and the cause of the failure was something introduced by changes intended to fix a B9 or S25 failure mode, this is churn rather than progress.
Only if the later failure is more difficult to address than the original.

If I fix my car by replacing a failed alternator, and then I break down because of a loose wire on the new alternator, I've still progressed compared to the original state (dead alternator).

Offline mordroberon

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #58 on: 12/21/2023 02:17 pm »
I'll go super optimistic on this one

Launch: last week of January 2024
Ships: S28/10
Mission: Suborbital path, test satellite deployment, fluid transfer between tanks
What will happen: Successful launch, hot staging, boost-back, target trajectory hit, fluid transfers, satellite deploys, booster soft-lands in gulf, starship survives re-entry, hard landing in the middle of the pacific.

Offline alugobi

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #59 on: 12/21/2023 04:20 pm »
If they cannot Until they get a handle on the engine relighting/staying lit issue, then the criticism of churn remains valid.  The success of the booster flight profile depends upon that in large measure.  Not so much for the ship in the next flight, because they're not relighting it. 

But, you know, so what?  It's a prototype.  It's a test bed.  Since it doesn't appear that they made any internal revisions to the booster, it's perhaps correct to say that they think that they can correct the engine out problems of flight 2 with software/timing adjustments. 

So maybe they have to do that a few times.  Call it churn.  That's just impatience at watching them get to where they want to be.

Edit to clarify.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2023 09:02 pm by alugobi »

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #60 on: 12/21/2023 07:39 pm »
If I fix my car by replacing a failed alternator, and then I break down because of a loose wire on the new alternator, I've still progressed compared to the original state (dead alternator).

Thanks, this analogy is useful and your point is taken. (Gotta ask: when the wire came loose, did your car's flight termination system activate?)
« Last Edit: 12/21/2023 07:39 pm by sdsds »
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Offline Oersted

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #61 on: 12/26/2023 06:47 pm »
My guess, slight recontacting between 1st and 2nd stage at staging, seemingly unimportant, yet dooming the 2nd stage.

Offline alugobi

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #62 on: 12/26/2023 07:17 pm »
My guess, slight recontacting between 1st and 2nd stage at staging, seemingly unimportant, yet dooming the 2nd stage.
What will be different about the launch profile that will allow that to happen?

Offline Nevyn72

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #63 on: 12/26/2023 09:05 pm »
My guess, slight recontacting between 1st and 2nd stage at staging, seemingly unimportant, yet dooming the 2nd stage.
What will be different about the launch profile that will allow that to happen?

More thrust on the Booster Stage.

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #64 on: 12/26/2023 09:14 pm »
Until they get a handle on the engine relighting/staying lit issue, then the criticism of churn remains valid.

I'm not sure I'd call that "churn".  It strikes me more as a matter of solving one problem to expose the next problem, until they run out of problems.

Example: they didn't know about the relighting issue until IFT2 because IFT1 didn't get far enough to expose it (assuming that it would have occurred with the original staging scheme, of course).  And if the booster landing fails on IFT3, it'll expose another problem hidden by the relighting problem on IFT2.
« Last Edit: 12/26/2023 09:14 pm by Exastro »

Offline Oersted

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #65 on: 12/26/2023 09:23 pm »
My guess, slight recontacting between 1st and 2nd stage at staging, seemingly unimportant, yet dooming the 2nd stage.
What will be different about the launch profile that will allow that to happen?

Just a tongue-in-cheek comment on what happened at Kwaj on the third Falcon I flight.

That being said I don't see why my guess would be worse than any other in this thread... ;-)
« Last Edit: 12/26/2023 09:24 pm by Oersted »

Offline baikonur

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #66 on: 12/27/2023 02:25 pm »
There will be several engines out on the booster again from launch, or soon thereafter. Won't make separation again. Basically a repeat of ift-1 albeit with less drama on the ground.
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Offline dabomb6608

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #67 on: 12/27/2023 02:34 pm »
There will be several engines out on the booster again from launch, or soon thereafter. Won't make separation again. Basically a repeat of ift-1 albeit with less drama on the ground.

Are you forgetting IFT-2 or are you predicting several steps backwards?

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #68 on: 12/27/2023 05:13 pm »
There will be several engines out on the booster again from launch, or soon thereafter. Won't make separation again. Basically a repeat of ift-1 albeit with less drama on the ground.

Are you forgetting IFT-2 or are you predicting several steps backwards?

I think he's making a reference to Falcon 1 Flight 3, which didn't make it past stage sep.
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Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #69 on: 12/31/2023 12:26 am »
My guess, slight recontacting between 1st and 2nd stage at staging, seemingly unimportant, yet dooming the 2nd stage.
This is what happened to an early Falcon-1.  It would certainly be ironic to see the same bug on StarShip.

But if anything, I suspect the opposite (based on pure guesswork).  SpaceX, knowing re-contact would likely be catastrophic, would be conservative in avoiding it.  They therefore kept the booster at minimum thrust after staging.  When the second stage's exhaust slammed into it, the acceleration went negative, the fuel floated, and problems ensued.

If there was sufficient margin before re-contact (as measured on IFT-2), this could be improved by ramping up the booster engines right when the second stage blasts it with full-power exhaust.  This will push the booster closer, which will increase the blast exposure at the top of the booster, but could prevent negative acceleration and provide more control authority.

Tuning the software to balance re-contact (dooming StarShip) and preventing negative acceleration (which could doom SH) must be plausible in SpaceX's mind, otherwise they'd not have switched to hot staging.  But testing StarShip is surely more important (at this stage) than testing booster recovery, so they will approach this balance conservatively, favoring StarShip.  So I predict for IFT-3 we will see a thrust bump from the booster after separation, right when the second stage exhaust hits it full blast.  But they will be careful to avoid re-contact.

Offline alugobi

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #70 on: 12/31/2023 12:59 am »
So I predict for IFT-3 we will see a thrust bump from the booster after separation, right when the second stage exhaust hits it full blast.  But they will be careful to avoid re-contact.
I'm still wondering whether the booster was pushed over by the impinging exhaust faster than they designed for.  If you're correct, a thrusting booster might counteract the sideways force on it from the ship.  It may go higher and to the side of the receding ship before it makes the turn for boostback.

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #71 on: 12/31/2023 02:26 am »
So I predict for IFT-3 we will see a thrust bump from the booster after separation, right when the second stage exhaust hits it full blast.  But they will be careful to avoid re-contact.
I'm still wondering whether the booster was pushed over by the impinging exhaust faster than they designed for.  If you're correct, a thrusting booster might counteract the sideways force on it from the ship.  It may go higher and to the side of the receding ship before it makes the turn for boostback.
I'm thinking along similar lines.  In the crude diagram below, at (A) the stages separate.  At (B), the booster engines start a booster rotation in a given direction.  In (C), the booster engines reverse, turning a rotation into a pure translation, with the off-center thrust pushing the top, and the engines pushing the bottom.  Then as the booster clears the StarShip (D), the booster engines throttle up to settle the fuel and return to base (E).

Offline brushers12and3

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #72 on: 01/09/2024 07:33 pm »
There's a forecasting competition where you can predict when / if the third Starship integrated test flight happens: (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20916/date-of-3rd-starship-integrated-flight-test/).

Offline TomH

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Re: Predictions For IFT-3 Of Starship
« Reply #73 on: 01/10/2024 04:13 am »
There's a forecasting competition where you can predict when / if the third Starship integrated test flight happens: (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20916/date-of-3rd-starship-integrated-flight-test/).

Well, that is not fair or appropriate because people who have L2 access have inside information that others do not.

Online crandles57

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Offline JohnsterSpaceProgram

Re: Predictions for Starship IFT-3
« Reply #75 on: 02/11/2024 05:34 pm »
With Ship 28 having been stacked on Booster 10 for the first time, it seems that IFT-3 is getting really close now. My new prediction for when the launch might happen is in early March of 2024.

It could still end up happening this month in late February, but only if the regulatory approvals come in time and the vehicles are ready for flight shortly afterwards, which I'm sure could end up happening, but we'll just have to wait and see what happens in the next few weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if a WDR (or some other sort of full stack testing) happens sometime next week if everything goes well. And credit to Starship Gazer for taking the image attached to this post.

Also, for anyone who hasn't yet, or wants to make a change to their entry, make sure you submit your predictions at this link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLzdPCsyB7oZgIODzBblGvzBOaSipdPt4frOHPzWNXI/edit?usp=sharing. A lot of flight predictions have come in already, and I'm looking forward to seeing more as we get closer to launch day! :)
« Last Edit: 02/11/2024 05:41 pm by JohnsterSpaceProgram »
I'm JohnsterSpaceProgram and I like watching Starship development! The first Starship orbital test flight was amazing to watch and I can't wait for future orbital flights!

Offline MDMoery

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Re: Predictions for Starship IFT-3
« Reply #76 on: 02/21/2024 06:39 pm »
Interesting how things are lining up for Starship compared to the the early Shuttle program:

STS-1 April 12, 1981          --- IFT-1 April 20, 2023
STS-2 November 14, 1981  --- IFT-2 November 18, 2023
STS-3 March 22, 1982        --- IFT-3 ?? Late March 2024 ??

 

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