So, I've started an IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet, I invite you all to put your detailed predictions down:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPTwiUPzNOooGNYp8JNuek_apNuZWqaMXw_81UFQFj0/edit?usp=sharingThanks for as much people as possible to fill this in. I'll also invite you to find a person you think might like this and spread this link to them.
This was interesting to fill out, though I have to admit I was a little confused by this. For example, should our percentages be overall chance of the event happening or should each be the percent chance of the event happening assuming it reaches that stage of flight (all previous events were successful)? Looking at the values in the sheet, I assume it is the latter..
Done, although for some reason the "lock it in" check box wasn't there for me.
You have to read the header; some are % success and some are % failure.
Quote from: KSHavre on 09/13/2023 04:04 pmYou have to read the header; some are % success and some are % failure.Let me try to explain better my question..The chance that the ship separates cleanly over-all I would estimate at ~40% (because it depends on all the other events before it, each with a chance of failure) but I would estimate that chance of separating cleanly would be 90%+ if I knew it would get to the separation stage.For example, someone estimated a 50% chance of booster separation completion but a 90% chance of booster boostback burn started..that doesn't make sense unless you assume it has gotten to that step and you're only evaluating success or failure of that one event on its own.