Author Topic: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet  (Read 7095 times)

Offline AL13N

IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« on: 09/12/2023 01:13 pm »
So, I've started an IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet, I invite you all to put your detailed predictions down:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPTwiUPzNOooGNYp8JNuek_apNuZWqaMXw_81UFQFj0/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for as much people as possible to fill this in. I'll also invite you to find a person you think might like this and spread this link to them.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #1 on: 09/12/2023 03:00 pm »
So, I've started an IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet, I invite you all to put your detailed predictions down:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPTwiUPzNOooGNYp8JNuek_apNuZWqaMXw_81UFQFj0/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for as much people as possible to fill this in. I'll also invite you to find a person you think might like this and spread this link to them.

Thanks, this is going to be interesting to see how it stacks up.

Biggest rocket ever, second test flight, no one alive, really knows what's going to happen.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline StevenOBrien

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #2 on: 09/12/2023 07:46 pm »
So, I've started an IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet, I invite you all to put your detailed predictions down:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPTwiUPzNOooGNYp8JNuek_apNuZWqaMXw_81UFQFj0/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for as much people as possible to fill this in. I'll also invite you to find a person you think might like this and spread this link to them.
With 26 date predictions in... the wisdom-of-the-crowd average prediction for the launch date of B9/S25 is...

09/25

Is it destiny?
« Last Edit: 09/12/2023 07:47 pm by StevenOBrien »

Offline Kspbutitscursed

Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #3 on: 09/12/2023 09:05 pm »
done mine
I attempt to fly in ksp
WEN OFT-3                 #Wen Booster 11/12 engines installation

Offline Perchlorate

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #4 on: 09/12/2023 10:57 pm »
Mine's done.

Good mnemonic:  "There's a rat in separation."  Tried to fix that every place I could.

Interesting spreadsheet.  Comment/guidance could be clearer on how Engines Down, % and Number, is to be used.
Pete B, a Civil Engineer, in an age of incivility.

Offline whitelancer64

Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #5 on: 09/12/2023 11:09 pm »
Done, although for some reason the "lock it in" check box wasn't there for me.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline alugobi

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #6 on: 09/13/2023 01:23 am »
Only 4 success=No. 

Pretty optimistic bunch. 

Offline Malisk

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #7 on: 09/13/2023 02:24 pm »
This was interesting to fill out, though I have to admit I was a little confused by this. For example, should our percentages be overall chance of the event happening or should each be the percent chance of the event happening assuming it reaches that stage of flight (all previous events were successful)? Looking at the values in the sheet, I assume it is the latter..

Offline KSHavre

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #8 on: 09/13/2023 04:04 pm »
This was interesting to fill out, though I have to admit I was a little confused by this. For example, should our percentages be overall chance of the event happening or should each be the percent chance of the event happening assuming it reaches that stage of flight (all previous events were successful)? Looking at the values in the sheet, I assume it is the latter..


You have to read the header; some are % success and some are % failure. I also tried not to contradict myself in related columns - e.g. "Separated" can't be less than "Separated Cleanly". I was thinking of commenting on the format, but this was fun to fill out and made me think; happy someone did it!

Offline KSHavre

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #9 on: 09/13/2023 04:05 pm »
Done, although for some reason the "lock it in" check box wasn't there for me.

Copy and Paste!

Offline Malisk

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #10 on: 09/13/2023 04:33 pm »
You have to read the header; some are % success and some are % failure.

Let me try to explain better my question..The chance that the ship separates cleanly over-all I would estimate at ~40% (because it depends on all the other events before it, each with a chance of failure) but I would estimate that chance of separating cleanly would be 90%+ if I knew it would get to the separation stage.

For example, someone estimated a 50% chance of booster separation completion but a 90% chance of booster boostback burn started..that doesn't make sense unless you assume it has gotten to that step and you're only evaluating success or failure of that one event on its own.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2023 04:35 pm by Malisk »

Offline KSHavre

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #11 on: 09/13/2023 06:30 pm »
You have to read the header; some are % success and some are % failure.

Let me try to explain better my question..The chance that the ship separates cleanly over-all I would estimate at ~40% (because it depends on all the other events before it, each with a chance of failure) but I would estimate that chance of separating cleanly would be 90%+ if I knew it would get to the separation stage.

For example, someone estimated a 50% chance of booster separation completion but a 90% chance of booster boostback burn started..that doesn't make sense unless you assume it has gotten to that step and you're only evaluating success or failure of that one event on its own.

Right! I had checked casually and thought I saw very few considering their prediction mutually exclusive (how mature is that step specifically), so went the other way. I just went back and did the math; only 8-10 do that in the first few columns. For for your example, only 5 submitted a greater chance of boostback burn, than booster completed. Not saying I am correct; right or wrong I just tried to follow the crowd!

And then I clicked at the top of columns T-X and the comment on each says: "if it survives separation, of course"...

Offline AL13N

Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #12 on: 09/14/2023 11:44 am »
Thanks for everyone filling in!

Thanks for correcting typos, english is my 4th language.

Indeed it is slightly confusing, which is why i tried adding notes. I couldn't find a better way.

I've also sent this to the discord, so this is a bit of a mix between forum and discord NSF people. unfortunately not many NSF hosts wanted to bite, even though i'm allowing multiple predictions if case you have more info at some later time.

It is indeed more about the perceived chance of success for each step.

And people are really optimistic, i made some averages below, and people seem to thingk 26th is the date on average now, and are pessimistic about booster after sepertion and ship re-entry :-) (as expected)

I tried making enough rows so people would have the locked in checkbox, if you haven't locked in, then please do so; I manually secure that row when it's locked in.

Specifically about the rumours of FAA license taking longer, i feel the FAA admin may not have all the data and what he said might have been wrongly interpreted, also i don't know when the actual FAA Admin said that thing about feeling good about next month... which seems to some media that FAA license is NET october.

So, i'm not gonna do another prediction just yet, i'm holding of on more concrete data...

Offline alugobi

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #13 on: 09/15/2023 07:28 pm »
Given what Lueders just said, most of the predictors were way too optimistic about wenlaunch.  For example, even just looking at some of the cam views, the deluge tank headers on the big tanks are still open to the atmosphere and aren't connected yet. 

Offline steveleach

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Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #14 on: 09/15/2023 09:14 pm »
It looks like the changes since flight 1, presumably the booster bidet with all that water going everywhere, have triggered a Written Reevaluation and consultation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (see updates thread).

Offline AL13N

Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #15 on: 09/19/2023 08:53 pm »
Yeah, allthough I read somewhere that the PEA is re-evaluated for every launch, i guess it just takes time?

Of course that makes the whole thing unclear and so I'm holding off on predictions again, until there is more news...

Offline JohnsterSpaceProgram

Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #16 on: 10/10/2023 05:48 pm »
So, I've started an IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet, I invite you all to put your detailed predictions down:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPTwiUPzNOooGNYp8JNuek_apNuZWqaMXw_81UFQFj0/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for as much people as possible to fill this in. I'll also invite you to find a person you think might like this and spread this link to them.

I've entered and locked in my predication for the second Integrated Flight Test of Starship. You can find it on the spreadsheet under the username "JohnsterSpaceProgram". My predication is that this flight has an approximately 50% chance of being successful, although with the last minute work on the ship and booster ahead of the flight, maybe this is now a little higher. We'll just have to wait until the flight occurs and see what happens. :)
I'm JohnsterSpaceProgram and I like watching Starship development! The first Starship orbital test flight was amazing to watch and I can't wait for future orbital flights!

Offline JohnsterSpaceProgram

Re: IFT2 Prediction Spreadsheet
« Reply #17 on: 11/24/2023 06:58 pm »
I have a question. When are you going to unlock the "after mission success" section of the spreadsheet? Because it's already been almost a week since IFT-2 happened, and that section of the spreadsheet is still not accessible, even though it should be since the flight already happened so people can fill it out.
I'm JohnsterSpaceProgram and I like watching Starship development! The first Starship orbital test flight was amazing to watch and I can't wait for future orbital flights!

Tags: Starship IFT2 
 

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