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https://twitter.com/cnspaceflight/status/1599712543001706497

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The mission patch of LANDSPACE's first launch of Zhuque-2 #ZQ2-Y1.
Could the stars mean the payloads: one main and four secondaries? twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/
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YELLOW  SEA,TUG  BEIHAIJIU118  TOWING  TAIRUI, FROM  052300UTC TO 111600UTC DEC, FROM HAIYANG 36-39.00N  121-14.00E TO CHENGSHANTOU 37-20.37N 123-42.69E, LENGTH OVERALL 610 METERS, SPEED  4 KNOTS, VIA 36-35.00N 121-18.00E,36-29.50N 121-18.50E,36-41.00N 122-26.00E.CAUTION  TO AVOID. 
SHANDONG MSA CHINA.
This is Tairui route and 37-20.37N 123-42.69E is launch sopt.
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Polls Section / Re: Which comes first, the EUS-SLS or the Moonship?
« Last post by eeergo on Today at 09:17 am »
Thus thread has no reason to exist. It's asking a silly question that was answered long ago, as whitelancer64 so ably points out.

Not really.

Nobody seems to be asking the elephant-in-the-room question: what happens if --obligatory disclaimer: despite the major hardware investments, humongous public hype and great NASA reliance on SuperHeavy-based architectures, and one in particular that's reliant on more than a handful of launches in a short time-- the current HLS doesn't deliver for whatever reason, or like many aerospace programs in the past, is even -gasp- cancelled?

That's what Option B HLS is for, but obviously will take a much longer time to implement than currently scheduled. That's what Gateway is for as well, if we're honest with ourselves: as SS pundits are quick to point out (and they're right), it's kind of silly to have a purportedly much more capable, much larger, more flexible and independently-refuelable man-rated spaceship dock to smaller space station for no good reason other than, you know, crew transfer or something. And that's what SLS is actually for too: it may well be the only workable superheavy LV available for a long time.

Artemis III being the first Moon landing mission is indeed the current plan, which would mean that, by definition, EUS would happen later. However, this seems more and more unlikely to happen in its current form unless they're fine with pausing the program for several years in the best-case scenario. It can well be transformed into a Gateway or standalone Orion mission with a proverbial "strike of a pen", there are no real showstoppers other than changing the planning. HLS-based Artemis missions can be shuffled to be later on, starting with IV, or V, or even VIII. At least in IOC, they're decoupled from HLS.

Gateway is happening, very possibly on schedule. EUS development is progressing and is comparatively low-risk compared to SLS' until now or, clearly, SS/SH's. Orion is, for all intents and purposes, operational, as is SLS Block I - build flows are very advanced for CS-2 and CS-3, including EUS-related modifications to the LVSA, and they will probably also happen on schedule, or be delayed for programmatic reasons rather than the rocket woes we've grown used to until now. Boosters and ICPSs are almost certainly not a schedule risk, as ESMs/CMs most likely are neither. Moonship's actual feasibility, on the other hand, is very much in the air, even for its uncrewed demonstration - as are its compulsory tankers, LV for both variants, multiple-launch and refueling CONOPS and ancilliary extremely-complex, unproven associated critical-path items.

FWIW, personally I believe EUS has a very good chance of being real before Starship in any variant becomes an operational vehicle (even suspending my disbelief for a second regarding it actually working as a vehicle). Should it happen, I believe it to be very likely SLS Block IB will be an operational reality before HLS, and Artemis will become much more Gateway-centric until the 2030s.
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I think you are going of track. Starship and booster are progressing rapidly to first flight and we are 2 years away from the Mars launch window.
For anything to happen Starship must make orbit and return intact

Not really. This is nice to have. Even, it's a requirement for a long term solution. But it's not part of MVP (minimum viable product).

The most basic item after that is being able to do propellant transfer. Yes Soyuz has done it and ISS uses it but not a)With cryogens b)On this scale.

With those 2 pieces in place SX will send something Starship sized to Mars in 2024.

Maybe the will maybe the won't. But propellant transfer is not required, either. They might chose not to pursue Mars in 2024 if propellat transfer is not done, because of priorities. And Mars flyby may be made a part of propellant transfer test, so having propellant transfer makes some Martian attempt more likely, but it's not an absolute requirement.
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The launch time might be ~05:55 UTC.
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https://twitter.com/cnspaceflight/status/1599707068751314948

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🚀LANDSPACE is pioneering the first rocket powered by methane fuel, Zhuque-2, to orbit. New NOTAM indicates a potential launch time ~08:30UTC on December 10. Best Luck![/quote
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https://twitter.com/cnspaceflight/status/1599695659955019776

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Latest NOTAM indicates the first & sea launch of Smart Dragon will happen at ~0500UTC on December 09, from N3720' E12343' of the Yellow Sea
You are right!
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A3313/22 NOTAMN
Q) ZSHA/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3720N12343E011
A) ZSHA B) 2212090450 C) 2212090805
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED CENTERED AT N3720E12343
WITH RADIUS OF 20KM. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL
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A3314/22 NOTAMN
Q) ZSHA/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3635N12330E017
A) ZSHA B) 2212090455 C) 2212090807
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N3622E12317-N3650E12323-N3647E12344-N3619E12338 BACK TO START.
VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL
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Or they could do the 6th one in 2023 (say even Jan 1st 2023).
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Given the similarity of ZQ-2 with CZ-2C/D and the report of ZQ-2 launching between December 4 and 15, maybe this is for the ZQ-2 1st flight after all?
That is very possible!
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Given the similarity of ZQ-2 with CZ-2C/D and the report of ZQ-2 launching between December 4 and 15, maybe this is for the ZQ-2 1st flight after all?
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