If the first human colonists arrive in 2024 and the catastrophe befalls earth in 2025, we're all done for. But if the catastrophe befalls earth in 2525[1], there is a good chance that a thriving interplanetary economy, with billions in residence on various planets, dwarf planets, moons, asteroids, and free space, can easily take up the slack, mount a rescue operation and save the day. Part of this thread, to me, is .. .how fast can we get things to the point where it's more like 2525 (with compromises) and there is hope. 10 years? 20? 50? 100? The more low tech things that can be done solely with ISRU there are, the faster Mars can lever up to be that rescue capable civilization (or carry on if rescue is not possible), I think. And even if that's not needed, the smaller the mass fraction (and dollar amount) that is needed for import, the faster the economy can grow, absent all other factors having influence.1 - I think there was a song about this. ... "in the year 2525... "
Regarding Martian gold mining.You need very high concentrations to make gold mining worth it. You also have to _find_ it. Mars has the land area of Earth. Most ore deposits these days are a process of looking through progressively higher resolution air and ground surveys. These surveys are usually built off the back of larger surveys conducted by aircraft. Naturally, we have a problem here since Mars is not conducive to aerodynamic flight. And no, you can't just use satellite data to pinpoint a 1-km ore deposit lying deep underground.There may be plenty of large, high-grade ore deposits on Mars. We may not find them until decades after first colonisation.
Quote from: Lampyridae on 10/04/2018 02:33 pmRegarding Martian gold mining.You need very high concentrations to make gold mining worth it. You also have to _find_ it. Mars has the land area of Earth. Most ore deposits these days are a process of looking through progressively higher resolution air and ground surveys. These surveys are usually built off the back of larger surveys conducted by aircraft. Naturally, we have a problem here since Mars is not conducive to aerodynamic flight. And no, you can't just use satellite data to pinpoint a 1-km ore deposit lying deep underground.There may be plenty of large, high-grade ore deposits on Mars. We may not find them until decades after first colonisation.Who's this "you" who asserts need and tech for satellite detection deep underground? To comment - accurately - read the Red Gold posts, for a start. E.g. one achievable survey schedule.As for "aerodynamic flight"...
Quote from: LMT on 10/04/2018 05:10 pmQuote from: Lampyridae on 10/04/2018 02:33 pmRegarding Martian gold mining.You need very high concentrations to make gold mining worth it. You also have to _find_ it. Mars has the land area of Earth. Most ore deposits these days are a process of looking through progressively higher resolution air and ground surveys. These surveys are usually built off the back of larger surveys conducted by aircraft. Naturally, we have a problem here since Mars is not conducive to aerodynamic flight. And no, you can't just use satellite data to pinpoint a 1-km ore deposit lying deep underground.There may be plenty of large, high-grade ore deposits on Mars. We may not find them until decades after first colonisation.Who's this "you" who asserts need and tech for satellite detection deep underground? To comment - accurately - read the Red Gold posts, for a start. E.g. one achievable survey schedule.As for "aerodynamic flight"... "You" is used as an indefinite third person pronoun.You would prefer I should say "one?" whilst wearing a monocle? Or be all och aye and say "a body?"Can you explain to me how uranium disequilibrium works in the context of Martian geological history? We'll assume that issues of power, endurance, autonomy, weight, dust (oh look this radioactive dust can also stick to the spectrometer whodathunkit) and so on can be addressed within the next 4 years.Can you also explain to me how 3 satellites with garden variety magnetometers (as in you have to start cutting metal NOW) will gather enough data in ~2.5 years to select mining prospects.
"You" is used as an indefinite third person pronoun.
Can you explain to me how uranium disequilibrium works in the context of Martian geological history?
We'll assume that issues of power, endurance, autonomy, weight, dust (oh look this radioactive dust can also stick to the spectrometer whodathunkit) and so on can be addressed within the next 4 years.
Can you also explain to me how 3 satellites with garden variety magnetometers (as in you have to start cutting metal NOW) will gather enough data in ~2.5 years to select mining prospects.
That's just plain misreading.Orbiting gamma-ray spectrometers for initial survey. Drone gamma-ray and magnetometers for follow-up survey, as done already in Parshin et al. 2018, Cherkasov & Kapshtan 2018.Drone electromagnet tray for sample collection. Physical assay by crew.It's a straightforward approach, and slotted reasonably into SpaceX's current schedule.Refs.Cherkasov, S., & Kapshtan, D. (2018). Unmanned Aerial Systems for Magnetic Survey.Crawford, I. A. (2015). Lunar resources: A review. Progress in Physical Geography, 39(2), 137-167.Parshin, A. & Grebenkin, N. & Morozov, V. & Shikаlenko, F. (2018). FIRST RESULTS OF A LOW-ALTITUDE UAS GAMMA SURVEY BY COMPARISON WITH THE TERRESTRIAL AND AERIAL GAMMA SURVEY DATA. Geophysical Prospecting. 66.
There's a difference between a gamma survey and a gamma spectrometer survey. Gamma spectrometers that are usable at drone scales are considerably bulkier and heavier than a handheld scintillometer. The one owned by the company whose services we use is pretty big, about the volume of a bar fridge and is carried by a large "crop duster" size drone.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46645321?ns_campaign=bbcnews&ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=facebookWell our needs for water should be met for some time at this location.
Quote from: colbourne on 12/22/2018 01:31 amhttps://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46645321?ns_campaign=bbcnews&ocid=socialflow_facebook&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=facebookWell our needs for water should be met for some time at this location.Another pet idea of mine is to land on one of these exposed ice locations during summer when you can have some months of 24 hour solar power, and set out from there in a caravan towards the equator, prospecting as you go.
Quote from: Lampyridae on 10/23/2018 02:21 pmThere's a difference between a gamma survey and a gamma spectrometer survey. Gamma spectrometers that are usable at drone scales are considerably bulkier and heavier than a handheld scintillometer. The one owned by the company whose services we use is pretty big, about the volume of a bar fridge and is carried by a large "crop duster" size drone.A drone that lands repeatedly and presses a 'handheld scintillometer' class payload against what it's landed on is a whole lot less flexible than a proper fly-over survey.It's probably also a lot lighter.(I would guess the scanning head without shielding to be under 200g, as the whole unit is 1.5kg).This is in the range of the Mars 2020 helicopter.
Quote from: colbourne on 07/20/2018 10:43 amQuote from: john smith 19 on 07/19/2018 05:44 amThe question (as it's always been) is what is the minimum subset of the resources of Earth that are needed for another planet to be self-sufficient IE able to grow without external input in the worst case scenario of no more supplies (or people) coming from Earth. This sums up the problem of setting up a civilisation on Mars that has the potential to flourish and the possibility of growth, independently from Earth.I think the minimum could be a base using very little, if any electricity. People and crops would live in tunnels and light could be reflected in with mirrors, and a few windows. Air would be cleaned by the vegetation as much as possible. The only requirement for complex production processes could be to produce glass (or transparent alternatives) and airlocks, although even these could be made from rock , and sealed with ice. Suits for use outside could be fabric or leather , proofed with resin ? Breathing equipment for use outside will be a major problem.So right there you're going to be needing animals for leather (not just now but in the future) and cloth and probably some kinds of trees for the design.
Quote from: john smith 19 on 07/19/2018 05:44 amThe question (as it's always been) is what is the minimum subset of the resources of Earth that are needed for another planet to be self-sufficient IE able to grow without external input in the worst case scenario of no more supplies (or people) coming from Earth. This sums up the problem of setting up a civilisation on Mars that has the potential to flourish and the possibility of growth, independently from Earth.I think the minimum could be a base using very little, if any electricity. People and crops would live in tunnels and light could be reflected in with mirrors, and a few windows. Air would be cleaned by the vegetation as much as possible. The only requirement for complex production processes could be to produce glass (or transparent alternatives) and airlocks, although even these could be made from rock , and sealed with ice. Suits for use outside could be fabric or leather , proofed with resin ? Breathing equipment for use outside will be a major problem.
The question (as it's always been) is what is the minimum subset of the resources of Earth that are needed for another planet to be self-sufficient IE able to grow without external input in the worst case scenario of no more supplies (or people) coming from Earth.