You can use other rockets and small landers for logistics express delivery. In fact, this is exactly what NASA is doing in CLPS.
Quote from: ncb1397 on 07/02/2018 04:02 pmYou can use other rockets and small landers for logistics express delivery. In fact, this is exactly what NASA is doing in CLPS.I think you are onto something here. Express deliveries on smaller rockets could definitely help simplify the logistics by giving you more margin for error. You could even make regularly scheduled express deliveries where every two months you send over whatever is needed most.
Quote from: ncb1397 on 07/02/2018 04:02 pmYou can use other rockets and small landers for logistics express delivery. In fact, this is exactly what NASA is doing in CLPS.I think you are onto something here. Express deliveries on smaller rockets could definitely help simplify the logistics by giving you more margin for error.
And if you committed to a block buy of express deliveries, say buying 12 launches each on two different systems, you could get a decent price and reliability.
Getting back to the issues of the SLS development program.Over the last year the best possible launch date has moved (slipped) 4 months over a period of time of 12 months. That is a slip rate of 1 month per quarter of development. The current best possible launch date in NASA's schedule (no schedule pad) is now Apr 2020. That is 21 months from now or 7 quarters. To calculate the possible schedule pad needed at this current slip rate you also have to contend with a compounding factor. As the best possible moves out more time is added and as more time to launch then the slip factor is applied to that also. This then gives a needed schedule pad of 10 months between the current best possible launch date of Apr 2020 and the high likelihood date of +10 months of Feb 2021.
For the present and near future this right here is all anyone really needs to understand: QuoteGetting back to the issues of the SLS development program.Over the last year the best possible launch date has moved (slipped) 4 months over a period of time of 12 months. That is a slip rate of 1 month per quarter of development. The current best possible launch date in NASA's schedule (no schedule pad) is now Apr 2020. That is 21 months from now or 7 quarters. To calculate the possible schedule pad needed at this current slip rate you also have to contend with a compounding factor. As the best possible moves out more time is added and as more time to launch then the slip factor is applied to that also. This then gives a needed schedule pad of 10 months between the current best possible launch date of Apr 2020 and the high likelihood date of +10 months of Feb 2021.Here is the rub. By the time this thing makes it's first flight, which will be un-manned and in-capable of doing an actual mission thanks to the program's own ridiculous timeline and requirements, it will be 'too late'. What flies in 2020-2022 will not be an operational vehicle or "The real" SLS, it will be a one or at most a two off vehicle. Meanwhile at the same time:New Glenn will either be in service or nearing serviceVulcan will most likely be beginning serviceACES will be in serviceFH block 5 will be in service with a USAF option for a raptor upper stage, unlikely though actual utilization may be.BFR will be either close to service or entering service depending on technical challenges and/or any re-designs due things discovered in the test campaign. The test campaign is underway right now with the first BFS test vehicle either already under construction or due to start shortly. The raptor engine exists right now, though scaling remains a mystery as details are tightly held in house at this time.BE-4 is under going it's flight test validation program right now
Quote from: FinalFrontier on 07/03/2018 07:09 amFor the present and near future this right here is all anyone really needs to understand: QuoteGetting back to the issues of the SLS development program.Over the last year the best possible launch date has moved (slipped) 4 months over a period of time of 12 months. That is a slip rate of 1 month per quarter of development. The current best possible launch date in NASA's schedule (no schedule pad) is now Apr 2020. That is 21 months from now or 7 quarters. To calculate the possible schedule pad needed at this current slip rate you also have to contend with a compounding factor. As the best possible moves out more time is added and as more time to launch then the slip factor is applied to that also. This then gives a needed schedule pad of 10 months between the current best possible launch date of Apr 2020 and the high likelihood date of +10 months of Feb 2021.Here is the rub. By the time this thing makes it's first flight, which will be un-manned and in-capable of doing an actual mission thanks to the program's own ridiculous timeline and requirements, it will be 'too late'. What flies in 2020-2022 will not be an operational vehicle or "The real" SLS, it will be a one or at most a two off vehicle. Meanwhile at the same time:New Glenn will either be in service or nearing serviceVulcan will most likely be beginning serviceACES will be in serviceFH block 5 will be in service with a USAF option for a raptor upper stage, unlikely though actual utilization may be.BFR will be either close to service or entering service depending on technical challenges and/or any re-designs due things discovered in the test campaign. The test campaign is underway right now with the first BFS test vehicle either already under construction or due to start shortly. The raptor engine exists right now, though scaling remains a mystery as details are tightly held in house at this time.BE-4 is under going it's flight test validation program right nowWILL Be... If this was 2015 I might agree with you, but we are halfway through 2018. BFR "entering service"? Don't expect it till 2028 or 2030 at best. It will be a major development effort. Look how long we waited for FH, and it has flown ONCE! Have we seen the Raptor yet? Is it being run on the test stands at 100% yet?NG? I don't expect it to fly before 2025. Maybe 2022 for some test flights..maybe. BE4 hasn't been run at full throttle yet. We'll see it on the test stands in 2020 I think, clustered and being run at 100%+.Maybe Vulcan and BE4 in 2022. Why? Aren't there sufficient RD-180's , AV and DIVH in the pipeline? No pressure. My point is none of the things you mentioned are a given. Especially in the timeline mentioned. Anything can happen. If anything, SLS is further along than any of the items you mentioned.
...in 2020-2022...ACES will be in serviceFH block 5 will be in service with a USAF option for a raptor upper stage, unlikely though actual utilization may be.
BFR "entering service"? Don't expect it till 2028 or 2030 at best. It will be a major development effort. Look how long we waited for FH, and it has flown ONCE! Have we seen the Raptor yet? Is it being run on the test stands at 100% yet?
NG? I don't expect it to fly before 2025. Maybe 2022 for some test flights..maybe. BE4 hasn't been run at full throttle yet. We'll see it on the test stands in 2020 I think, clustered and being run at 100%+.
Maybe Vulcan and BE4 in 2022. Why? Aren't there sufficient RD-180's , AV and DIVH in the pipeline? No pressure. My point is none of the things you mentioned are a given. Especially in the timeline mentioned. Anything can happen. If anything, SLS is further along than any of the items you mentioned.
ACES hopefully will be in serious development by then, but today they are just at the concept stage, and everything I have heard indicates they are unlikely to start moving past that point until Vulcan/Centuar V is on the pad. (Problem is their parent companies rather than current leadership from what I can tell.)Raptor upper stage would not exist unless problems happen with BFR. The Air Force contract is just about the engine, and only needs the "raptor upper stage" as a possibility, not an intended future.