Author Topic: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program  (Read 419545 times)

Offline strangequark

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #480 on: 04/08/2016 12:28 am »
Aww, that's the shame of the approval time lag. It's so much prettier and more detailed now.

Offline jongoff

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #481 on: 04/08/2016 03:51 am »
Aww, that's the shame of the approval time lag. It's so much prettier and more detailed now.

Yeah, I remember how viscerally frustrating it was having to wait 30 days for getting formal DARPA approval for just about any public communication (even a freaking tweet). That's probably my single biggest gripe about our experience working with DARPA on the Phoenix program.

I noticed that the pictures in Dave's presentation looked newer and more refined.

~Jon

Offline strangequark

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #482 on: 04/08/2016 06:25 am »
Aww, that's the shame of the approval time lag. It's so much prettier and more detailed now.

Yeah, I remember how viscerally frustrating it was having to wait 30 days for getting formal DARPA approval for just about any public communication (even a freaking tweet). That's probably my single biggest gripe about our experience working with DARPA on the Phoenix program.

I noticed that the pictures in Dave's presentation looked newer and more refined.

~Jon

Looks like those are in the wild now.

Offline strangequark

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Offline RotoSequence

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #484 on: 04/14/2016 05:07 am »
http://spacenews.com/darpa-experimental-spaceplane-program-moves-into-next-phase/

10 times in 10 days for a reusable, orbital space plane first stage and they're only getting $140 million to do it? Even Falcon 9 took $90 million. I'd be shocked if this program isn't dead in the water.
« Last Edit: 04/14/2016 05:10 am by RotoSequence »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #485 on: 04/14/2016 05:36 am »
Physics defines what's possible, not Elon.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline RotoSequence

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #486 on: 04/14/2016 06:06 am »
Physics defines what's possible, not Elon.

Budgets and cash flow define who is eager to try, and the Falcon 9 is a prime example of capable launch vehicle development on a tight budget. XS-1 is asking to do a lot more than Falcon 9 Flight 1 without commensurate funding. What's the incentive to develop this kind of experimental vehicle on a low budget, fixed price contract?
« Last Edit: 04/14/2016 06:09 am by RotoSequence »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #487 on: 04/14/2016 07:06 am »
http://spacenews.com/darpa-experimental-spaceplane-program-moves-into-next-phase/

Not surprising Boeing are having thoughts now that they may have to spend some of their own money on this project.

Sponable said he believes the current XS-1 contractors, and others who might decide to compete for phase 2, understand they’ll be expected to contribute to the program. But one company involved in phase 1 says they’re still weighing their options for competing for phase 2.

“For participation, we’re assessing the appropriateness of what Boeing might do,” said Craig Cooning, president of Boeing Network and Space Systems, during a media roundtable April 12 at the 32nd Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colorado. - See more at: http://spacenews.com/darpa-experimental-spaceplane-program-moves-into-next-phase/#sthash.A4lJAtui.dpuf

Offline QuantumG

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #488 on: 04/14/2016 10:21 am »
Yes, Sponable said at Space Access that the contractors will be expected to put their own money in. That's pretty common on DARPA contracts.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Star One

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #489 on: 04/14/2016 03:13 pm »
Northrop backs XS-1 spaceplane to join satellite launch market

Northrop Grumman might be "playing to win" the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's XS-1 programme, but the aerospace firm's interest in a reusable spaceplane for rapidly launching small satellites runs far deeper than any one project or contract.

Quote
The company's vice-president of space systems resiliency Doug Young tells Flightglobal that Northrop will likely press forward with its XS-1 concept through "other ways and means" if it isn't downselected for the programme's $140 million demonstration phase.

Quote
“If a responsive system can be built and start to fly with some flight rate for the commercial market, then DOD can come in and buy launches. They don’t need to come in and develop the system.”

Young says the vertical takeoff, horizontal landing spaceplane will carry its upper stage rocket much higher than any carrier airplane, meaning it will travel further into space. It will be capable of Mach 10, but won't go into orbit like the Space Shuttle or Boeing's X-37B – making it much cheaper to manufacture and reuse.

Quote
Northrop thinks by that time there will be significant demand from the military and commercial sector to begin operations, and the company is not worried about competition from alternative providers.

Young says if it – and launch companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Orbital ATK and United Launch Alliance – can truly cut the cost of space access, a strong market will materialise. If not, everybody loses.

“There’s going to be enough launches to go around,” he says. "We believe strongly in the programme and have assessed the market. We’ve assessed and know well what the government’s interests and desires are. But who can project where the market will be in four years?

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/northrop-backs-xs-1-spaceplane-to-join-satellite-lau-424210/
« Last Edit: 04/14/2016 03:17 pm by Star One »

Offline jongoff

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #490 on: 04/15/2016 03:04 am »
Northrop backs XS-1 spaceplane to join satellite launch market

Northrop Grumman might be "playing to win" the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's XS-1 programme, but the aerospace firm's interest in a reusable spaceplane for rapidly launching small satellites runs far deeper than any one project or contract.

Quote
The company's vice-president of space systems resiliency Doug Young tells Flightglobal that Northrop will likely press forward with its XS-1 concept through "other ways and means" if it isn't downselected for the programme's $140 million demonstration phase.

Quote
“If a responsive system can be built and start to fly with some flight rate for the commercial market, then DOD can come in and buy launches. They don’t need to come in and develop the system.”

Young says the vertical takeoff, horizontal landing spaceplane will carry its upper stage rocket much higher than any carrier airplane, meaning it will travel further into space. It will be capable of Mach 10, but won't go into orbit like the Space Shuttle or Boeing's X-37B – making it much cheaper to manufacture and reuse.

Quote
Northrop thinks by that time there will be significant demand from the military and commercial sector to begin operations, and the company is not worried about competition from alternative providers.

Young says if it – and launch companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Orbital ATK and United Launch Alliance – can truly cut the cost of space access, a strong market will materialise. If not, everybody loses.

“There’s going to be enough launches to go around,” he says. "We believe strongly in the programme and have assessed the market. We’ve assessed and know well what the government’s interests and desires are. But who can project where the market will be in four years?

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/northrop-backs-xs-1-spaceplane-to-join-satellite-lau-424210/

Of course how many times have major aerospace companies claimed "we'll keep going even if we don't get the contract" only to wind things down quietly when they didn't get the contract?

~Jon

Offline jongoff

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #491 on: 04/15/2016 03:11 am »
http://spacenews.com/darpa-experimental-spaceplane-program-moves-into-next-phase/

10 times in 10 days for a reusable, orbital space plane first stage and they're only getting $140 million to do it? Even Falcon 9 took $90 million. I'd be shocked if this program isn't dead in the water.

XS-1 for a $140M DARPA contribution *is* aggressive, but not completely unrealistic. We're talking about a much smaller stage than F9 (about 1/10th the size), and designing the stage for maximum reusability instead of trying to hit both high performance and reusability (like Falcon 9) could help a lot too. I think Masten could realistically pull it off within that budget if they won. Also, Boeing or NG could do it if they were willing to pony up everything past the $140M DARPA was willing to put in.

I'm not sure Boeing or NG believe in the market as much as Masten does, so they might be less willing to pony up anything beyond the minimum cost-sharing required for an OTA type contract.

~Jon
« Last Edit: 04/15/2016 03:11 am by jongoff »

Offline su27k

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #492 on: 04/15/2016 03:19 am »
http://spacenews.com/darpa-experimental-spaceplane-program-moves-into-next-phase/

10 times in 10 days for a reusable, orbital space plane first stage and they're only getting $140 million to do it? Even Falcon 9 took $90 million. I'd be shocked if this program isn't dead in the water.

Falcon 9 v1.0 takes $390M I believe, there's a NASA document certifying it. But this vehicle shouldn't be compared to Falcon 9, it's more like Falcon 1 (and only the first stage at that), I think $90M is probably similar to what is spent on Falcon 1, and given SpaceX doesn't know what they were doing back then, it looks to me $140M is totally doable.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #493 on: 04/15/2016 03:36 am »
http://spacenews.com/darpa-experimental-spaceplane-program-moves-into-next-phase/

10 times in 10 days for a reusable, orbital space plane first stage and they're only getting $140 million to do it? Even Falcon 9 took $90 million. I'd be shocked if this program isn't dead in the water.

Falcon 9 v1.0 takes $390M I believe, there's a NASA document certifying it. But this vehicle shouldn't be compared to Falcon 9, it's more like Falcon 1 (and only the first stage at that), I think $90M is probably similar to what is spent on Falcon 1, and given SpaceX doesn't know what they were doing back then, it looks to me $140M is totally doable.
SpaceX had to develop 2 engines while NG and Boeing will be using engines developed for other LVs ( launcher one and NS).



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Offline yg1968

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #494 on: 04/18/2016 07:24 pm »
Of course how many times have major aerospace companies claimed "we'll keep going even if we don't get the contract" only to wind things down quietly when they didn't get the contract?

~Jon

That's a good point. It's usually true that they keep it going. But it is likely only a few people that ocasionnally work on the project in case it becomes relevant again for another contract.

Offline Archibald

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #495 on: 04/19/2016 07:08 pm »
I wish good old Lockheed Agena was still there. Would make a nice upper stage to ride on the XS-1.
Han shot first and Gwynne Shotwell !

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #496 on: 04/22/2016 12:29 am »
http://spacenews.com/darpa-experimental-spaceplane-program-moves-into-next-phase/

10 times in 10 days for a reusable, orbital space plane first stage and they're only getting $140 million to do it? Even Falcon 9 took $90 million. I'd be shocked if this program isn't dead in the water.

XS-1 for a $140M DARPA contribution *is* aggressive, but not completely unrealistic. We're talking about a much smaller stage than F9 (about 1/10th the size), and designing the stage for maximum reusability instead of trying to hit both high performance and reusability (like Falcon 9) could help a lot too. I think Masten could realistically pull it off within that budget if they won. Also, Boeing or NG could do it if they were willing to pony up everything past the $140M DARPA was willing to put in.

I'm not sure Boeing or NG believe in the market as much as Masten does, so they might be less willing to pony up anything beyond the minimum cost-sharing required for an OTA type contract.

~Jon
There's a huge amount of hype in microlaunch. Masten's XS-1, if it meets the goals it was developed for, would beat all the other serious microlaunch competitors on price (even assuming those efforts meet their price goals, just to be fair) while also getting several times more payload to orbit. If NG's board has people in the loop of the angel/VC-funded microlaunch race (Firefly, Rocketlab, etc), they may be quite interested in the promise of this market segment. It'd be a great way to launch and replenish OneWeb, for instance.

NG also sponsored the X-Prize that you and the rest of the team at Masten won.
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #497 on: 04/22/2016 12:37 am »
Masten's XS-1, if it meets the goals it was developed for, would beat all the other serious microlaunch competitors on price (even assuming those efforts meet their price goals, just to be fair) while also getting several times more payload to orbit.

Not disagreeing with you, but what's your math for that?
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #498 on: 04/22/2016 09:59 am »
Rocket lab have received a grant to investigate using Electron as an upper stage.

It was in one of articles related to recent XS1 announcements.

Offline Star One

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Re: DARPA Experimental Spaceplane 1 (XS-1) Program
« Reply #499 on: 04/25/2016 07:51 pm »
Jeff Foust –  ‏@jeff_foust

Melroy: decided to do a full and open competition for Phase 2 of XS-1 because we’re hoping to bring in some fresh ideas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/724614984865558528

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