Author Topic: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement  (Read 63117 times)

Online StraumliBlight

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #160 on: 10/19/2024 03:40 pm »
and where does it say the NRO mission set is one launch?  It gives two dates a year apart for that mission set.

True and Air and Space Forces magazine concurs.

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Space Systems Command awarded two task orders to SpaceX Oct. 18, covering seven launches for the Space Development Agency’s data transport satellites and an undisclosed number of launches for the secretive National Reconnaissance Office.

Arstechnica and SpaceNews said eight launches.

Offline sdsds

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #161 on: 10/19/2024 06:33 pm »
The press release says the NRO mission set "will be launched into orbit during 4QFY25 and 4QFY26." It doesn't specify the number of launches, but plain reading of the language implies at least two in the set.
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Offline gongora

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #162 on: 10/19/2024 11:10 pm »
https://x.com/StephenClark1/status/1847766538482290822
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I've updated this story with additional information from Space Systems Command. There are actually nine launches in these task orders, not eight, at an average price of $81.5 million per mission. Six will launch from Vandenberg, three from Cape Canaveral.

Offline deltaV

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #163 on: 10/19/2024 11:41 pm »
A SpaceX tweet confirms it's 9 launches: https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1847777433954767313
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Falcon 9 was selected by the @SpaceForceDoD to launch nine new national security missions!

Online StraumliBlight

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #164 on: 10/21/2024 10:58 am »
Designation name and launch site clarified in the GovConWire release.

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SDA-1 LSTO
One of the task orders will support the Space Development Agency’s launch of seven space vehicles for the Tranche 2 Transport Layer satellite network. The launches will be designated T2TL-D through J.

Three of the SDA launches will lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida and the four remaining missions will launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

Online StraumliBlight

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #165 on: 10/30/2024 08:46 pm »
National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 On-Ramp Request for Proposal (RFP) [Oct 30]

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Lane 1 provides awardees who can meet a subset of the NSSL requirements the opportunity to compete for ~30 missions via annual task order competitions.  The NSSL program has implemented a tiered mission assurance approach that inherently accepts a higher risk to mission success to address mission specific needs.

 • For this FY25 on-ramp, the Government intends to competitively award multiple award IDIQ contracts.  These IDIQ contracts will have a four (4)-year basic ordering period and a 5-year option ordering period.  The Government will reopen the original IDIQ solicitation on an annual basis to on-ramp emerging providers.
 • As stated in Attachment 9, Evaluation Criteria, of the FY25 On-Ramp RFP, Offerors must comply with the U.S. Commercial Provider definition of the Commercial Space Act of 1998, Title II P.L. 105-303.  Sec. 2(8)(A) defines US Commercial Provider as organized under the laws of the United States and is more than 50% owned by United States nationals.  See also Sec. 2(2) and Sec. 2(8) of the Act.
 • The FY25 On-Ramp RFP is attached to this notice.  Sensitive RFP documents will be provided via DoD SAFE.  Potential offerors must contact the Contracting Officer, Kirsten Prechtl, and courtesy copy the Contract Specialist, Andrea DeMars, listed in this notice to receive the sensitive RFP documents.
 • Proposals are due by 1200 Pacific Time on Friday, 13 December 2024.

Offline deltaV

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #166 on: 10/31/2024 05:08 am »
National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 On-Ramp Request for Proposal (RFP) [Oct 30]
I guess this is just the yearly lane 1 on-ramp opportunity that the DOD has been planning for years?

Any US launch company with a launcher capable of 1 ton to 926km minimum (according to https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55784.msg2506594#msg2506594) that's planned to have the first launch in 2025 is a likely bidder. This includes Neutron and Antares. The initial RS 1 isn't quite big enough but they're planning an upgraded version that will be (https://payloadspace.com/clean-up-in-nssls-lane-1/); it's unclear if the upgraded version will launch in 2025. Firefly Alpha may also be big enough if upgraded; I don't know if such upgrades are planned. Firefly MLV, Nova, and Terran R will probably on-ramp a year from now.

Offline AndrewM

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #167 on: 11/03/2024 01:46 am »
There was another amendment to the Lane 2 RFP on Oct. 24, 2024.

https://sam.gov/opp/340d8355d29f4f96a15670cd0d8a2d62/view

The most notable change is the quantity of missions planned increased from 49 to 54. A total of 9 new missions were added and 4 were removed including one GPS IIIF. Along with the updated mission count, the distribution per order year was updated.

Offline deltaV

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #168 on: 11/05/2024 10:39 pm »
As expected Rocket Lab is apparently bidding for lane 1 this year using Neutron: https://spacenews.com/rocket-lab-confirms-plan-to-bid-for-pentagon-launch-contracts-with-new-medium-rocket/.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #169 on: 11/06/2024 06:14 am »
As expected Rocket Lab is apparently bidding for lane 1 this year using Neutron: https://spacenews.com/rocket-lab-confirms-plan-to-bid-for-pentagon-launch-contracts-with-new-medium-rocket/.

30 missions for $5.6B = $183m a piece on average. SpaceX has been awarded 7 missions for $733m. Could be very lucrative for RL if they win a few especially as they will most likely bid lot higher than $55m(Neutron list price).

Offline gongora

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #170 on: 11/06/2024 10:27 pm »
SpaceX has been awarded 7 missions for $733m.

9 missions

Online ThatOldJanxSpirit

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #171 on: 11/22/2024 07:22 am »
USSF Lt. Col. Phillip Garrant states that NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 awards are on hold until there is a full appropriation. So likely well into 2025.

https://spacenews.com/space-force-adjusts-timeline-as-vulcans-national-security-launches-slip-to-2025/

That would seem quite politically convenient for ULA as they look increasingly unlikely to fly a single NSSL Phase 2 launch on Vulcan this year.

Offline deltaV

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #172 on: 01/12/2025 05:17 am »
3 is more than enough competitors to service lane 2.

For best results there should be frequent new entrants to keep the incumbents on their toes. SpaceX made a big difference as a lane 2 new entrant previously and Blue Origin is the current new entrant. I was hoping that Relativity would be the next new entrant, but there are hints that Relativity may not survive due to insufficient money (see Relativity thread e.g. https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40975.msg2653796#msg2653796). So another new entrant is desirable. Maybe Stoke Space will build a lane 2 sized vehicle if their current Nova vehicle is successful?

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #173 on: 01/12/2025 01:50 pm »
3 is more than enough competitors to service lane 2.

For best results there should be frequent new entrants to keep the incumbents on their toes. SpaceX made a big difference as a lane 2 new entrant previously and Blue Origin is the current new entrant. I was hoping that Relativity would be the next new entrant, but there are hints that Relativity may not survive due to insufficient money (see Relativity thread e.g. https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40975.msg2653796#msg2653796). So another new entrant is desirable. Maybe Stoke Space will build a lane 2 sized vehicle if their current Nova vehicle is successful?
(This is a personal perspective based on reading this forum. Feel free to disagree.)
I disagree. USSF's goal for NSSL is assured access to space. Starting at least as early as the formation of ULA, they try to achieve this by awarding enough steady funding to the launch providers to ensure their viability. If you subdivide the funds, you cannot keep all the participants alive. They need one provider with very high reliability. This is currently SpaceX. They feel the need for a second provider. They thought this would be ULA, but Vulcan ended up being five years late. They now need to award 60% of Lane 2 to ULA to keep ULA viable, and 40% to SpaceX to actually launch reliably. Fairness is not a goal. Nurturing new entrants is at best a low-priority goal.

Offline VSECOTSPE

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #174 on: 01/17/2025 04:59 pm »

It depends on the size of the national security launch market relative to the size of the commercial launch market.

If the former is a small fraction of the latter, the more confidence DOD can have in bringing on more providers and the less expensive it is for DOD to onboard each provider.  That’s more or less the outlook today, although it is tempered by the fact that StarLink is what’s driving commercial launch numbers today.

If there is more parity between the sizes of the national security and commercial launch sectors, as has been the rule in prior decades, then DOD has to be careful about how many providers it can afford to on-ramp and support.  However, being too conservative, as happened with EELV consolidation a couple decades ago, can impose costs that far exceed the risks that conservatism is suppossed to manage.

The real missed national opportunity over the decades has been the failure to consolidate the civil human space flight market (NASA astronaut and supporting flights) with the commercial and national security launch sectors. Although commercial cargo/crew finally made this transition for LEO, the continued isolation of human space exploration in its own industrial base has driven the nation’s flagship human space program into fragile, unsafe, unaffordable, and almost unusable launch solutions, while denying national security and commercial launch providers a market that could have smoothed economic ups and downs and enabled more and more capable providers over the past decades.  It’s unclear whether and when this silo will be torn down.

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #175 on: 01/17/2025 07:07 pm »
If ULA wins 60 and SpaceX wins 40, SpaceX will sue.

Offline AndrewM

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #176 on: 02/01/2025 10:43 pm »
Some discussion of phase 3 from SpaceCom 2025.

https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/1884674287291822322 [Jan 29]

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Col. Jim Horne, Senior Materiel Leader, Launch Execution Delta, Assured Access to Space, Space Systems Command, notes that they can’t talk about the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 2 contract because it’s still in solicitation.

He says that will hopefully be awarded this year.

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Horne says of NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1, SSC opens up solicitation for onboarding new launch providers each December. They then go onto open competition for task orders.

https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/1884682947770347622

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Horne says they have 49 missions specified on NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2, which have not yet been awarded.

Lane 1 is not quite as stringent and will be tackled on “a case by case basis” when it comes to integration requirements.

Offline AndrewM

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #177 on: 02/01/2025 10:45 pm »
Some other discussion from the Space Mobility conference.

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Panzenhagen further noted that the service is planning to begin launches under the next phase of the NSSL program, called Phase 3, in 2025. Those would be under Phase 3 Lane 1, which covers launches to easier to reach orbits, payloads with less mass, and missions that are not absolute must-gos. Lane 1 launch providers also face fewer “certification requirements,” she said, including only having to complete one successful launch meeting Space Force requirements.

For example, while she said that all the data has yet to be collected and analyzed, Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is expected to become Phase 3 Lane 1 certified. New Glenn made its maiden launch on Jan. 16.

https://breakingdefense.com/2025/01/space-force-plans-18-nssl-launches-in-2025-including-on-ulas-vulcan/ [Jan 28]

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #178 on: 02/01/2025 10:51 pm »
If ULA wins 60 and SpaceX wins 40, SpaceX will sue.
On what basis? USSF has an explicit mandate to maintain assured access to space, and their assertion that this requires two viable providers is defensible. Also, it's probably not worth SpaceX' time to bother to sue. Also, building a VIF for the FH would be a distraction, so they might quietly let USSF know that they will not sue as long as USSF grants all the missions that require vertical integration to Vulcan, at least until Starship is certified.

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: USSF NSSL Phase 3 Launch Service Procurement
« Reply #179 on: 02/02/2025 03:34 pm »
If ULA wins 60 and SpaceX wins 40, SpaceX will sue.
On what basis? USSF has an explicit mandate to maintain assured access to space, and their assertion that this requires two viable providers is defensible. Also, it's probably not worth SpaceX' time to bother to sue. Also, building a VIF for the FH would be a distraction, so they might quietly let USSF know that they will not sue as long as USSF grants all the missions that require vertical integration to Vulcan, at least until Starship is certified.

On the basis of all of those criteria that "assured access to space" overrode.  I think SpaceX would and should do this for the principle of the matter.

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