SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[wannamoonbase]

Updated graph after today's SXM-7 launch
A new record: 26 launches within the last 12 months (366 days)
If CRS-2 Flight 21 has not been delayed by a day SpaceX would have hit this mark last week.
The last ten launches have gone at a pace equivalent to almost 35 per year.
Food for thought for the upcoming annual prediction poll for the number of orbital launches in 2021.
(If anyone has a better place for these posts, please suggest it, probably by PM rather than clogging the thread.)

Maybe the most impressive stat is the pace of the last 10 flights.  That harbors well for 40 launches next year.

Maybe by the end of 2021 they will have the pace of 50 per year. 

I was looking at the stats that 26 of the 102 F9 flights have been in 2020, so 25% in the last year.  A year from how it could be that 1/3 of F9 flights happening in 2021.  That is a truly crazy ramp rate.

Regardless of the development pace of SS/SH it would probably be mid 2022 before there is any impact on the F9/FH manifest. 

Edit: They will need a few more boosters in rotation as well as another ASDS.

[Jansen]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1339567835840962560

[Jansen]

Just got this sent to me.

December SMSR schedule from NASA

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1339766017199726594

I believe this is the first time that a Falcon 9 has ever been lifted to the booster stand in Port Canaveral at night.

SpaceX means business with this booster. Hoping to fly it again for an eighth flight as early as January.

[Jansen]

I believe this is the first time that a Falcon 9 has ever been lifted to the booster stand in Port Canaveral at night.

SpaceX means business with this booster. Hoping to fly it again for an eighth flight as early as January.

50 day turnaround would be Feb 1, but I think they can pull off a 45 day turnaround for 27 January.

[Jansen]

The dates below are estimated booster turnaround times, not launch dates unless noted. The launch schedule in January/February will be dependent on Turksat 5A and Transporter-1 launch dates as the primary commercial payloads.

B1060.4
Ready, waiting for Turksat 5A payload mate
Launch from SLC-40, Jan 10-15??

B1063.2
53 days Nov21-Jan 14
Likely Transporter-1, launching Jan 14

B1049.8
50 days Nov 25-Jan 14
Likely Starlink v1.0 L16

B1058.5
50 days Dec 6-Jan 25
Likely Starlink v1.0 L17

B1051.8
50 days Dec 13-Feb 1
Likely Starlink RF Mission 1-1

B1059.6
45 days Dec 19-Feb 2
Likely Starlink RF Mission 2-1


B1059 has a good chance of a 45 day turnaround thanks to RTLS landing. However, it probably won’t happen due to the holidays, personnel limitations from having 5 boosters refurbishing in such a short period of time, and a lack of pad availability in the early February timeframe.

[soltasto]

B1063.2
53 days Nov21-Jan 14
Likely Transporter-1, launching Jan 14

63 is on the west coast while Transporter-1 will launch from the east coast. It also appears to be reserved for the DART mission.

[Jansen]

B1063.2
53 days Nov21-Jan 14
Likely Transporter-1, launching Jan 14

63 is on the west coast while Transporter-1 will launch from the east coast. It also appears to be reserved for the DART mission.

I haven’t seen information that B1063 is still on the west coast. At the very least it would have to go to McGregor for refurbishment.

Yes, it is slated for DART, but I don’t believe it is exclusively reserved.

The only alternative for Transporter-1 would be B1049.8, which seems unlikely. Doesn’t rule it out though.

[gongora]

I haven’t seen information that B1063 is still on the west coast. At the very least it would have to go to McGregor for refurbishment.

West coast boosters can go to Hawthorne for refurbishment, not McGregor.  As far as we know 1063 isn't coming east for any of these January flights.

[Jansen]

I haven’t seen information that B1063 is still on the west coast. At the very least it would have to go to McGregor for refurbishment.

West coast boosters can go to Hawthorne for refurbishment, not McGregor.  As far as we know 1063 isn't coming east for any of these January flights.

It doesn’t make sense to keep B1063 on the west coast when they are booster constrained. A lot of people think it will stay out west because of the SARah launch, but I’m doubtful that will happen in February, or even that it needs to launch from Vandenburg.

Unless the new Starlink RF missions polar missions are going to launch from VAFB. That would be an interesting development.

[gongora]

Those Starlink RF- permits are from Florida, and the drone ships are in the normal location.  I seriously doubt SARah is launching in February.  There's still no indication of 1063 coming east.

[Jansen]

Those Starlink RF- permits are from Florida, and the drone ships are in the normal location.

Good point, forgot about that. 🤦🏻‍♂️

I should’ve said “polar Starlink missions”.

[scr00chy]

B1063.2
53 days Nov21-Jan 14
Likely Transporter-1, launching Jan 14

63 is on the west coast while Transporter-1 will launch from the east coast. It also appears to be reserved for the DART mission.

I haven’t seen information that B1063 is still on the west coast. At the very least it would have to go to McGregor for refurbishment.

Yes, it is slated for DART, but I don’t believe it is exclusively reserved.

The only alternative for Transporter-1 would be B1049.8, which seems unlikely. Doesn’t rule it out though.

I suspect Transporter-1 will launch on B1062.2 (yes, that booster is supposed to fly on GPSIII-SV05 but it seems to me it will be allowed to do other missions before that, just as you suggested in the case of DART).

B1063 could launch on SARah-1 and then DART.

B1049.8 could be reused on Starlink L16.

[Jansen]

I suspect Transporter-1 will launch on B1062.2 (yes, that booster is supposed to fly on GPSIII-SV05 but it seems to me it will be allowed to do other missions before that, just as you suggested in the case of DART).

B1063 could launch on SARah-1 and then DART.

B1049.8 could be reused on Starlink L16.

SpaceX stated on their launch stream that the next flight for B1062 would the next GPS launch.

There’s a lot of refurbishment workflow analysis they want to conduct to validate proven boosters for the entire NSSL2 contract.

So that leaves either B1063 or B1049 for Transporter-1, unless they delay.

[scr00chy]

I suspect Transporter-1 will launch on B1062.2 (yes, that booster is supposed to fly on GPSIII-SV05 but it seems to me it will be allowed to do other missions before that, just as you suggested in the case of DART).

B1063 could launch on SARah-1 and then DART.

B1049.8 could be reused on Starlink L16.

SpaceX stated on their launch stream that the next flight for B1062 would the next GPS launch.

There’s a lot of refurbishment workflow analysis they want to conduct to validate proven boosters for the entire NSSL2 contract.

So that leaves either B1063 or B1049 for Transporter-1, unless they delay.

Well, it wouldn't be the first time they got something wrong on the webcast.

I'm mainly basing my speculation on the fact that B1060 is also supposed to be "reserved" for one of the GPS launches (according to SFN) and yet it's still being used on other non-GPS missions in the meantime. The "workflow analysis" you mention could just mean USSF will be overseeing the refurbishment process of the B1062 booster, even on non-military launches, not that they will be analyzing it on the ground for 7 months. Also, it might explain the need for this: https://spacenews.com/space-force-to-get-deeper-insight-into-inner-workings-of-spacex-commercial-launches/

[klod]

B1063.2
53 days Nov21-Jan 14
Likely Transporter-1, launching Jan 14

63 is on the west coast while Transporter-1 will launch from the east coast. It also appears to be reserved for the DART mission.

I haven’t seen information that B1063 is still on the west coast. At the very least it would have to go to McGregor for refurbishment.

Yes, it is slated for DART, but I don’t believe it is exclusively reserved.

The only alternative for Transporter-1 would be B1049.8, which seems unlikely. Doesn’t rule it out though.

I suspect Transporter-1 will launch on B1062.2 (yes, that booster is supposed to fly on GPSIII-SV05 but it seems to me it will be allowed to do other missions before that, just as you suggested in the case of DART).

B1063 could launch on SARah-1 and then DART.

B1049.8 could be reused on Starlink L16.

Why would they hold GPS launches until July 2021 if they could do it in January, as they planned 6 months ago?

[Jansen]

I'm mainly basing my speculation on the fact that B1060 is also supposed to be "reserved" for one of the GPS launches (according to SFN) and yet it's still being used on other non-GPS missions in the meantime.

Please provide a link for this.

The "workflow analysis" you mention could just mean USSF will be overseeing the refurbishment process of the B1062 booster, even on non-military launches, not that they will be analyzing it on the ground for 7 months. Also, it might explain the need for this: https://spacenews.com/space-force-to-get-deeper-insight-into-inner-workings-of-spacex-commercial-launches/

That contract ended in November.

[Elthiryel]

That contract ended in November.

SpaceX was awarded a new one: https://spacenews.com/spacex-gets-29-million-space-force-contract-for-surveillance-of-non-military-launches/

[Jansen]

Turksat 5A is now slated for 04 Jan 2021.

[scr00chy]

I'm mainly basing my speculation on the fact that B1060 is also supposed to be "reserved" for one of the GPS launches (according to SFN) and yet it's still being used on other non-GPS missions in the meantime.

Please provide a link for this.

Sorry, it was Space News, not SFN:

The Falcon 9 rockets that launched two military GPS satellites June 30 and Nov. 5 both had brand-new boosters which the company recovered after launch. After renegotiating its contract with the Space Force, SpaceX will use the recovered boosters from the June and November launches to fly two more GPS satellites in 2021.

https://spacenews.com/spacex-to-transition-to-fully-reusable-fleet-for-national-security-launches/