I thought that Gradatim was another word for slowly.It was my mistake.The reason why made that statement was because SpaceX launched their first orbital-class rocket four years after it was founded, but by the time Blue Origin launches New Glenn, it’ll have been twenty years since the company began.
If cashflow was an issue I suspect they would've produced a BE3 RLV or ELV. NS would be flying regularly with paying passengers.
Quote from: TrevorMonty on 11/07/2018 02:25 pmIf cashflow was an issue I suspect they would've produced a BE3 RLV or ELV. NS would be flying regularly with paying passengers.Sure, but you need to fly to learn. Saying that you don't fly because you don't have to (we have all the cash we need!), that just points out that having tons of money does not buy you progress.
That's a lot of effort on many fronts. Therefore the apparent progress, when looking at any one area, appears quite slow. However I expect a logarithmic progression as these seemingly disparate development efforts converge...
In all seriousness, I worry that we don't see much experimental work, in areas like hypersonic aerodynamics. [...]The fins on New Glenn have to work with known control laws at hypersonic speeds. Likewise they will need to control heating on the hypersonic entry of the first stage, a notoriously tricky computational problem. So I'd think Blue would be trying a New Shepard with New Glenn style fins, renting time on hypersonic tunnels, etc. But I don't see any of this, and if you do a full-up design, *then* test it, there is a rather high risk of schedule-busting unexpected developments.
Quote from: LouScheffer on 11/08/2018 01:49 pmIn all seriousness, I worry that we don't see much experimental work, in areas like hypersonic aerodynamics. [...]The fins on New Glenn have to work with known control laws at hypersonic speeds. Likewise they will need to control heating on the hypersonic entry of the first stage, a notoriously tricky computational problem. So I'd think Blue would be trying a New Shepard with New Glenn style fins, renting time on hypersonic tunnels, etc. But I don't see any of this, and if you do a full-up design, *then* test it, there is a rather high risk of schedule-busting unexpected developments.And that is exactly what SpaceX seems to be doing with its "mini-BFS" -- experimentally testing the aerodynamics (and TPS) of its full-sized vehicle. It would be very heartening to see BO do something similar.
>I wonder if BO are fearful of anything ever going wrong on a flight because if it does it might have an adverse effect on their standing due to their stated slow but sure method? >
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1067790448507396098'Few months'?!
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 11/28/2018 03:26 pmhttps://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1067790448507396098'Few months'?!Sounds to me like Blue are either working on changes to New Shepard (e.g. due to issue(s) from previous flight and/or doing upgrades) or New Shepard just isn't a priority and resources are focussed elsewhere.Only one flight in 2017 and looks like only 2 in 2018, after 4 successful flights in 2016, I find hard to understand.
Sounds to me like Blue are either working on changes to New Shepard (e.g. due to issue(s) from previous flight and/or doing upgrades) or New Shepard just isn't a priority and resources are focussed elsewhere.Only one flight in 2017 and looks like only 2 in 2018, after 4 successful flights in 2016, I find hard to understand.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 11/28/2018 03:32 pmSounds to me like Blue are either working on changes to New Shepard (e.g. due to issue(s) from previous flight and/or doing upgrades) or New Shepard just isn't a priority and resources are focussed elsewhere.Only one flight in 2017 and looks like only 2 in 2018, after 4 successful flights in 2016, I find hard to understand.I think they are just where they want to be..
Quote from: TripleSeven on 11/28/2018 03:55 pmQuote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 11/28/2018 03:32 pmSounds to me like Blue are either working on changes to New Shepard (e.g. due to issue(s) from previous flight and/or doing upgrades) or New Shepard just isn't a priority and resources are focussed elsewhere.Only one flight in 2017 and looks like only 2 in 2018, after 4 successful flights in 2016, I find hard to understand.I think they are just where they want to be..Maybe. Maybe not. There is no evidence to support either conclusion.However just like everyone else in their market space, Blue Origin is being judged by what they accomplish. And if the rate of accomplishment for an operational system is slow (i.e. New Shepard), then it's fair to wonder if their future development efforts for New Glenn will also be slow.In some ways it's good that New Glenn development is no longer at the total whim of Jeff Bezos - they have a $500M contract they have to execute for the USAF, and that means they have schedules to meet.But apparent lack of progress with New Shepard raises the question of whether they can execute all of their priorities right now...
..JB is not out looking for loans.
What a rubbish comment. So the inverse of this is that JB with all his billions can't "appear" to get even a sub-orbital platform on the pad and ready to fly. A bit of balance in your posts would be very welcome.Quote from: TripleSeven on 11/28/2018 04:11 pm..JB is not out looking for loans.
I have to wonder if the slow down in flight rate and time since the last flight are due to the major changes they've made in the BE-3.
If they truly were planning to fly passengers next year, they should be flying frequently now to validate it, at least monthly. Bezos should have no problem funding that. The fact that they are not suggests that they are not meeting their internal deadlines. Why? Who knows. But "we've got billions!!!!" is rapidly becoming a tired excuse.