Author Topic: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company  (Read 201092 times)

Online Robotbeat

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #80 on: 11/10/2025 12:17 am »
Starlink doesn’t have specialized radiators. Just the body of the spacecraft itself. Nothing else.
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Offline meekGee

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #81 on: 11/10/2025 12:40 am »
Starlink doesn’t have specialized radiators. Just the body of the spacecraft itself. Nothing else.
Didn't know that.

But, it's not compute heavy.  You only need to radiate the switch logic, and the inefficiency of the transmitters and receivers.

Also, the satellite form factor makes it a radiator... It's thin and flat and...  But there's a good chance they move heat around actively. I wonder if they shuttle heat to one face or the other depending on the sun angle.

Anyway, back to a compute center.

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Online Robotbeat

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #82 on: 11/10/2025 05:45 pm »
Radio transmitters in those frequency ranges tend to dissipate most of their input energy as heat.

It’s not irrelevant to bring up Starlink. Elon suggested using basically just a stretched V3 Starlink satellite to start.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #83 on: 11/10/2025 06:48 pm »
Starlink D2C could provide some compute demand for spectrum reuse on orbit, but I don't have a good sense of how much. NVidia is trying to sell into the terrestrial 5G market for this use case.

Offline meekGee

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #84 on: 11/10/2025 07:45 pm »
Radio transmitters in those frequency ranges tend to dissipate most of their input energy as heat.

It’s not irrelevant to bring up Starlink. Elon suggested using basically just a stretched V3 Starlink satellite to start.
But they can also run quite a bit hotter.

A 90% compute platform is harder to do than a 90% comm platform.

T4 and all.

Starlink pulled a rabbit by making the satellite shaped like a radiator.

Maybe the trick to orbital AI is to go more extreme - no longer a "rack" but a large 2D compute fabric, where the distance between heat sources corresponds to the area needed to cool them and/or power them.

The radiators need a sun-shade which shouldn't be the PV, but that just factors into the area calculation.

« Last Edit: 11/10/2025 07:54 pm by meekGee »
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Offline Greg Hullender

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #85 on: 11/12/2025 01:36 am »
I think 10x solar output for the same solar cell is actually pretty conservative. Most of the cost in these models is still the batteries (battery inverters plus the batteries themselves), so a 20-25x cost advantage is actually possible, ignoring launch costs (and space-hardening costs) for the moment. This is particularly true as you technically can get rid of the solar charge controller and inverter altogether (not to mention the battery, of course) and run basically directly off the cells (especially important nowadays as the inverter/etc is like almost as expensive as the solar panels and often more expensive than the raw cells).


Hold on a sec. You've got 5GW at 2 V or so that you have to transmit four km. I think your I-squared-R losses are going to kill you .

Online Robotbeat

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #86 on: 11/12/2025 03:08 am »
You wire them up in series, of course. Like this one was (normal sized drones don’t work at 2V). Like essentially every solar panel.
« Last Edit: 11/12/2025 03:17 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline meekGee

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #87 on: 11/12/2025 03:25 am »
I think 10x solar output for the same solar cell is actually pretty conservative. Most of the cost in these models is still the batteries (battery inverters plus the batteries themselves), so a 20-25x cost advantage is actually possible, ignoring launch costs (and space-hardening costs) for the moment. This is particularly true as you technically can get rid of the solar charge controller and inverter altogether (not to mention the battery, of course) and run basically directly off the cells (especially important nowadays as the inverter/etc is like almost as expensive as the solar panels and often more expensive than the raw cells).


Hold on a sec. You've got 5GW at 2 V or so that you have to transmit four km. I think your I-squared-R losses are going to kill you .
Other than what RB said, you're trying to build a terrestrial datacenter in space.  That's not how it's going to be built.
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Offline waveney

Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #88 on: 11/12/2025 01:37 pm »
Article about Googles data centers in space (on Phys.org)

https://phys.org/news/2025-11-google-space-based.html

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #89 on: 11/12/2025 02:41 pm »
Article about Googles data centers in space (on Phys.org)

https://phys.org/news/2025-11-google-space-based.html

Not a long article, but when they were talking about fleets of satellites flying in "extremely tight formation, separated by kilometers or less", that got me to wondering why all those satellites are flying individually - why not just build one large structure made up on many individually launched components?

That would virtually eliminate the communications lag.

So, why fleets of individual data centers instead of one large data center made up of a multitude of deliverable data center components?

Was this already discussed and decided? If so, no worries...  :D
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Greg Hullender

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #90 on: 11/12/2025 02:50 pm »
You wire them up in series, of course. Like this one was (normal sized drones don’t work at 2V). Like essentially every solar panel.
Okay, so how do you plan to step that voltage down to something the compute hardware can actually use? You argued for a much cheaper set of solar panels by eliminating the inverter, so you can't just transform the voltage.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #91 on: 11/12/2025 02:56 pm »
You wire them up in series, of course. Like this one was (normal sized drones don’t work at 2V). Like essentially every solar panel.
Okay, so how do you plan to step that voltage down to something the compute hardware can actually use? You argued for a much cheaper set of solar panels by eliminating the inverter, so you can't just transform the voltage.
You do not completely eliminate all voltage conversion. However, you do reduce it to a single step of DC-to-DC conversion that is optimized for this particular application. You probably end up with fairly high voltage DC from the panels all the way to each server board and downconversion on the board.

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #92 on: 11/12/2025 03:53 pm »
Article about Googles data centers in space (on Phys.org)

https://phys.org/news/2025-11-google-space-based.html

Not a long article, but when they were talking about fleets of satellites flying in "extremely tight formation, separated by kilometers or less", that got me to wondering why all those satellites are flying individually - why not just build one large structure made up on many individually launched components?

That would virtually eliminate the communications lag.

So, why fleets of individual data centers instead of one large data center made up of a multitude of deliverable data center components?

Are there any benefits to satellite scale?

If you want to do a training-only job, then you would need to have one large satellite.  But for inference jobs, smaller satellites spaced apart works well.

For communications satellites, you can get some interesting spectrum reuse effects by having spacing between satellites. So the design philosophy for some may tend toward the smaller (although still quite large) satellites.

Offline spacenut

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #93 on: 11/12/2025 04:45 pm »
Well, unless something drastic changes his mind, Elon Musk will build his Grok data centers in space.  Just on Elon Time :).  Now he can launch a lot with an operational Starship.  Very large payload with say solar panels, ion thrusters, laser transmission, and radiators for cooling in a 100-150 ton payload. 
« Last Edit: 11/12/2025 04:45 pm by spacenut »

Offline thespacecow

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #94 on: 11/15/2025 03:38 am »
Elon Musk at Baron Investment Conference: https://x.com/Teslaconomics/status/1989426722094366982

Quote
"We see a path to putting 100 gigawatts per year of solar powered AI satellites into orbit. And having this be actually the lowest cost rate to power and operate AI at a very large scale. For reference, the U.S. consumes ~460 gigawatts on average per year. Roughly a quarter of the U.S. electricity output. We have a plan mapped out to do it. It gets crazy."



His reply to the above post on X: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1989449151063658518

Quote
It is a hard path to 100GW/year of AI in space, but we know what to do

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #95 on: 11/15/2025 08:38 pm »
That video interview a lot of detail beyond the 100 gigawatt per year headline, revolving around semiconductor manufacturing.  He describes Tesla demand for semiconductors at 100-200 billion chips (@~45 minutes).  I can't square those numbers.  If that is indeed the correct number, we're off by orders of magnitude in the entire semiconductor industry.

My math and assumptions, on which I would welcome correction...

100 gigawatts
250 watts per chip (v. roughly; half retical, and given 2-3x more energy efficient than the full-reticle NVidia chips)
Therefore, 400 million chips

72 reticles per wafer
Two chips per reticle
Therefore, 231,000 wafer starts per month

231,000 wafer starts per month would be extremely ambitious on the latest process nodes, but if we're talking about orders of magnitude more, that would be insane.

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1989415535461703702
« Last Edit: 11/15/2025 08:49 pm by RedLineTrain »

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #96 on: 11/16/2025 02:53 pm »
My guess that the AI5 chip is 250 watts was confirmed by Elon.  Of course, by the time that these are launched to orbit (AI7?), the wattage may differ.

Question remains on the other variables that don't seem to add up to 100-200 billion AI chips a year.  Maybe it's 1-2 billion per year?  That seems more along the lines of the other stated orders of magnitude.

Quote
Elon Musk @elonmusk
Looks like we can bring power consumption down closer to 250 Watts, which is a big deal for Optimus.

Important to note that AI5 is a specialized inference chip for the Tesla AI software. That said, it will perform – for our purposes – much better than anything else available.

To borrow Jensen’s phrase, we wouldn’t use any other chip in our cars and robots even if they were free!
3:01 PM · Nov 15, 2025

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1989785746480202135
« Last Edit: 11/16/2025 03:15 pm by RedLineTrain »

Offline bulkmail

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #97 on: 11/16/2025 05:00 pm »
100-200 billion chips is for Tesla - not clear if Tesla AI specifically or also other Tesla chips?
100GW/year is for AI in space - some of that consumption may go to Tesla chips to be used by SpaceX, but not necessarily, there may be SpaceX or xAI chips as well

So, I don't think you can use the two numbers together.

Offline Vultur

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #98 on: 11/16/2025 05:42 pm »
I think the question is whether there is actually the capacity to make 100-200 billion chips.

Continued exponential growth of AI will have to deal with many of these kinds of limitations. In practice, exponential growth generally hits some limit - the question is whether that's 2 years away or 10 years or 50.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: M&A: xAI, A SpaceX Company
« Reply #99 on: 11/16/2025 07:29 pm »
What would be the bottleneck? There’s plenty of silicon.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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