Spreadsheet it.
Although not very detailed, the sustained lunar evolution (SLE) segment is interesting:Quote from: pages 72-75 of the Architecture definition document (or pages 80 to 83 of the PDF)3.3 SUSTAINED LUNAR EVOLUTION SEGMENT3.3.1 Summary of ObjectivesIn the Sustained Lunar Evolution (SLE) campaign segment, NASA aims to build, together with its partners, a future of economic opportunity, expanded utilization, including science, and greater participation on and around the Moon. [...]3.3.2.2 Increased Economic OpportunityEconomic opportunity on and around the Moon in the context of this discussion means that governments are no longer the sole source of support for the funding of the lunar activities and that non-governmental entities would like to invest in, and profit from, activities at the Moon. NASA aims to reduce the barriers of entry for activities on and around the Moon and to provide capabilities others can leverage. Currently there is limited economic rationale for exploring the Moon, but given the cost of getting to and from the Moon, knowledge and access are perhaps the first areas where economic opportunity exists for the non-governmental sector. Artemis is making the foundational investments for access to the Moon from a transportation, exploration, and science perspective. The opportunity for industry at this point is to leverage that investment to enable lunar access (both robotic and human) to additional governmental entities, scientific institutions, international entities, and industry partners. As mentioned in the increased science capability narrative, additional investments in communications, navigation, ISRU, power, and transportation sub-architectures will be needed to enhance access and return, facilitating the beginning of new supporting service economic opportunities in those areas.Economic opportunity/profitability could progress along the lines of 1) information transfer, 2) delivering goods, 3) providing services at the Moon to enable others, and 4) bringing goods from the Moon to other destinations. Larger-scale economic opportunity begins to emerge when lunar reach and access are expanded, as small-scale ISRU propellant grows to industrial-scale, as aggregate power grows from kilowatts to megawatts, and using in-situ material and as manufacturing becomes more economical than importing everything from Earth. Once ISRU production is of sufficient scale, exporting propellant and material beyond the lunar surface is manifested as an economic opportunity.3.3.2.3 Increased Duration and PopulationIncreased science capability influences economic opportunity, which overlaps with the need to increase both the population of humans at the lunar South pole region and the need for them to stay there longer. However, humans currently require a significant quantity of resources imported from Earth to survive, along with large amounts of pressurized volume in which to live safely. In order to increase the size and duration of the lunar population significantly, local resources will eventually be required to provide water, support food growth, and build out infrastructure, with commercial or internationally provided crew transportation systems infused to increase mission frequency and crew population. As an interim step, small modular systems could be supplied by multiple partners to act as a bridge between the initial Foundation Exploration capabilities and the full-up ISRU systems to provide additional habitation and logistics. Fission power augmentation will also be required to achieve a year-round population at the lunar South Pole region, as available sunlight oscillates as a function of month and season. At some point in this evolution the possibility of lunar tourism appears, possibly at first with Earth-provided modular systems at a higher cost, then later at a larger, more affordable scale once lunar resources can be fully leveraged. 3.3.5 Open Questions, Ongoing Assessments, and Future WorkIncreased science capability, economic opportunity, and duration/population at the lunar South Pole region have the potential to evolve and merge in the future to form the first sustained human civilization beyond Earth. The capabilities put in place during the initial Artemis segments feed forward and enable the future enhancements, and the partnerships forged grow to incorporate a broader community. As Artemis solidifies its implementation of the previous segments, planning for the SLE segment needs to begin in earnest, as the ideation of both the future lunar state and the path(s) for getting there will impact what comes before it. Given the objective decomposition process as described in Section 1.3.1, the notional use cases and functions described in this section need to be replaced with ones developed by the segment stake holders. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20230002706/downloads/M2MADD_ESDMD-001(TP-20230002706).pdf
3.3 SUSTAINED LUNAR EVOLUTION SEGMENT3.3.1 Summary of ObjectivesIn the Sustained Lunar Evolution (SLE) campaign segment, NASA aims to build, together with its partners, a future of economic opportunity, expanded utilization, including science, and greater participation on and around the Moon. [...]3.3.2.2 Increased Economic OpportunityEconomic opportunity on and around the Moon in the context of this discussion means that governments are no longer the sole source of support for the funding of the lunar activities and that non-governmental entities would like to invest in, and profit from, activities at the Moon. NASA aims to reduce the barriers of entry for activities on and around the Moon and to provide capabilities others can leverage. Currently there is limited economic rationale for exploring the Moon, but given the cost of getting to and from the Moon, knowledge and access are perhaps the first areas where economic opportunity exists for the non-governmental sector. Artemis is making the foundational investments for access to the Moon from a transportation, exploration, and science perspective. The opportunity for industry at this point is to leverage that investment to enable lunar access (both robotic and human) to additional governmental entities, scientific institutions, international entities, and industry partners. As mentioned in the increased science capability narrative, additional investments in communications, navigation, ISRU, power, and transportation sub-architectures will be needed to enhance access and return, facilitating the beginning of new supporting service economic opportunities in those areas.Economic opportunity/profitability could progress along the lines of 1) information transfer, 2) delivering goods, 3) providing services at the Moon to enable others, and 4) bringing goods from the Moon to other destinations. Larger-scale economic opportunity begins to emerge when lunar reach and access are expanded, as small-scale ISRU propellant grows to industrial-scale, as aggregate power grows from kilowatts to megawatts, and using in-situ material and as manufacturing becomes more economical than importing everything from Earth. Once ISRU production is of sufficient scale, exporting propellant and material beyond the lunar surface is manifested as an economic opportunity.3.3.2.3 Increased Duration and PopulationIncreased science capability influences economic opportunity, which overlaps with the need to increase both the population of humans at the lunar South pole region and the need for them to stay there longer. However, humans currently require a significant quantity of resources imported from Earth to survive, along with large amounts of pressurized volume in which to live safely. In order to increase the size and duration of the lunar population significantly, local resources will eventually be required to provide water, support food growth, and build out infrastructure, with commercial or internationally provided crew transportation systems infused to increase mission frequency and crew population. As an interim step, small modular systems could be supplied by multiple partners to act as a bridge between the initial Foundation Exploration capabilities and the full-up ISRU systems to provide additional habitation and logistics. Fission power augmentation will also be required to achieve a year-round population at the lunar South Pole region, as available sunlight oscillates as a function of month and season. At some point in this evolution the possibility of lunar tourism appears, possibly at first with Earth-provided modular systems at a higher cost, then later at a larger, more affordable scale once lunar resources can be fully leveraged. 3.3.5 Open Questions, Ongoing Assessments, and Future WorkIncreased science capability, economic opportunity, and duration/population at the lunar South Pole region have the potential to evolve and merge in the future to form the first sustained human civilization beyond Earth. The capabilities put in place during the initial Artemis segments feed forward and enable the future enhancements, and the partnerships forged grow to incorporate a broader community. As Artemis solidifies its implementation of the previous segments, planning for the SLE segment needs to begin in earnest, as the ideation of both the future lunar state and the path(s) for getting there will impact what comes before it. Given the objective decomposition process as described in Section 1.3.1, the notional use cases and functions described in this section need to be replaced with ones developed by the segment stake holders.
So far I'm only aware one company who's actually planning on a product that has an end customer, that is Interlune. The rest are just planning to sell product to each other (i.e. propellant, electricity, communication, etc), which is basically self licking ice cream cone.To make an economy we need more than one company.
I think you are confusing the word "economy" with "activity". In order to have an economy on the Moon, you need revenue to be generated there and STAY THERE.What we have today is not a "space economy" with all the hardware we have in space, because that is just the means of generating revenue here on Earth.For instance, if you go to your local mountains and create a mine, you have going to bring that material back to civilization in order to exchange that material for some form of currency. But back at the mine, there isn't anyone to use the currency with who lives there (i.e. no stores, service companies, etc.), so the money is really circulating somewhere other than at the mine - the "economy" is not at the mine, but in the civilization where you sold the mined material.At the present time, and likely for quite a while, no one will be living on the Moon, so there can't be an economy on the Moon.The use of the word "economy" in relation with the word "Moon" is a PR/marketing stunt, or a fundamental lack of understanding how economies actually work.
...As I said above so far the only export with a business plan is He-3, which is not enough to prop up the whole economy even if it's a viable business.
Although now we have a new possible export: AI satellites, it'll be interesting to see if this can change the equation.
Quote from: thespacecow on 12/12/2025 03:37 am...As I said above so far the only export with a business plan is He-3, which is not enough to prop up the whole economy even if it's a viable business.Where will the owners live, and where will they bank? Earth. Even the customers are on Earth. So not a "lunar economy".Think of it this way, if you take a boat out into the ocean, grab a pail of seawater, and bring it back to land to do something with it, does that mean the spot you grabbed the water from has an "economy"? No, of course not. It is just a source of supply.QuoteAlthough now we have a new possible export: AI satellites, it'll be interesting to see if this can change the equation.If you have a bunch of automated systems on the Moon making hardware that is then shot up into space, and there are no humans living at the factory, then how is that an "economy"?The money to build the lunar AI satellite factory is coming from Earth, and the profits will be returned to Earth. And the customers will not be on the Moon either.
