Russia says it will stop selling the RD-180 rocket engine to the U.S. If a new engine doesn’t materialize in the next couple of years—and the Atlas V launcher is at a stand-down—does it make sense for Lockheed Martin to stay in the United Launch Alliance (ULA) joint venture with Boeing?There is about two years’ worth of Atlas inventory, plus you have the Delta IV and the ability to adjust your launch manifest. So I think that is the near-term answer to your question. No one knows if [launch services are] going to stop after that—it’s early days yet. Will there be an opportunity for another engine? Potentially, and we would support whatever the U.S. government wants to pursue in investing in another engine.Has Lockheed started to think about life after Delta IV, given that SpaceX is aiming to disrupt the market? It is changing the pricing structure, and perhaps customer expectations as well.If SpaceX gets qualified and makes it through the certification process, we certainly are prepared to compete with them. We have a great track record—83 successful launches out of ULA, 115 or so on Atlas itself—going back to when it was a Lockheed Martin-only product. We are constantly assessing what the competition will look like in the future. I think our price is pretty competitive. They have to achieve certification and be reliable—we’ll see how their pricing comes out. In the meantime, our job is to continue to provide affordable launch capability, which is what we’re doing with ULA.
In the past few months part of me has begun to believe that LM is actually quite a bit further along in development of an Atlas V replacement than most people would think. They didn't put much effort to prevent Orbital from trying to acquire the RD-180. LM has also been slowing their acquisition of RD-180 themselves even before the whole ruckus with Russia, in that they're using them slightly quicker than they're buying them. I suspect if someone took the acquisition rate (minus the recent political surge purchase announcement) of the RD-180 vs the expenditure rate and plotted them out you could figure out roughly when the replacement launch vehicle should be coming into service by seeing where those lines intersect.
What are some near-term opportunities where you can use IRAD in campaigns, or even to help make unsolicited proposals to the government?We are focused on some specific things I cannot tell you about now—which we see as near-term opportunities to help grow the business. As for the longer-term, we are putting an effort into hypersonics, directed energy, autonomy and robotics, and advanced materials like nanotechnology, 3-D printing and advanced manufacturing. Those are areas we see as potential game changers.
Quote from: rayleighscatter on 07/08/2014 08:22 pmIn the past few months part of me has begun to believe that LM is actually quite a bit further along in development of an Atlas V replacement than most people would think. They didn't put much effort to prevent Orbital from trying to acquire the RD-180. LM has also been slowing their acquisition of RD-180 themselves even before the whole ruckus with Russia, in that they're using them slightly quicker than they're buying them. I suspect if someone took the acquisition rate (minus the recent political surge purchase announcement) of the RD-180 vs the expenditure rate and plotted them out you could figure out roughly when the replacement launch vehicle should be coming into service by seeing where those lines intersect. LM has no role in the RD-180 acquisition or usage, it is all ULA. LM has no need for an Atlas V replacement, since it has ULA to manage the Atlas V for it.
There is nothing stopping Lockheed breaking away from ULA though is there, maybe they see it as more of an impediment for the future than a benefit to take on disruptive companies like Space X.
Quote from: Star One on 07/08/2014 08:34 pmThere is nothing stopping Lockheed breaking away from ULA though is there, maybe they see it as more of an impediment for the future than a benefit to take on disruptive companies like Space X.What makes you think they are?