Since Garpun will use a Block-DM upper stage, I would consider DirecTV-12 the more likely candidate
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/hyperbola/2009/09/swedish-space-corporation-swit.html"Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) has told Hyperbola that its Prisma formation flying satellite(s) that might have flown on a Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) Falcon is now to fly on a Dnepr rocket in February 2010"
One of possible launch dates of Soyuz TMA-17 spacecraft is December 15