Poll

How many SpaceX do you anticipate in 2013?

1
7 (2.6%)
2
22 (8%)
3
69 (25.2%)
4
116 (42.3%)
5
40 (14.6%)
More than 5
20 (7.3%)

Total Members Voted: 274

Voting closed: 12/23/2013 05:50 am


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013  (Read 212331 times)

Offline peter-b

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #40 on: 12/26/2012 11:47 am »
When I asked Elon about the 2013 flight rate, he said he felt very confident that they'd launch 5. So I voted for 4.   ;D
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #41 on: 12/26/2012 01:00 pm »
When I asked Elon about the 2013 flight rate, he said he felt very confident that they'd launch 5. So I voted for 4.   ;D

And I'm sure he removed you from his Christmas card list for that one ;)

btw. I remember an interview where he said 5 in 2013 if they are lucky. I immediately checked and noticed they have 8+ listed for 2013. So even he doesn't believe the manifest.

I Voted 4, but give them even odds for any number between 3-7.

I feel we may see 1 first quarter (CRS-2), 1 second quarter (MDA), then things should pick up in the third and fourth quarter (one or two CRS flights, one or two GTO flights, and maybe, just maybe a Orbcomm flight).

MDA will be the pacing item for future v1.1 flights. Until it flies, we can not accurately predict future 2013 flights.
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Offline Prober

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #42 on: 12/26/2012 01:19 pm »
"Also,
The poll expires in December 2013.  All members are allowed ONE vote and no one will be allowed to change their vote.  Sorry, but when your bet is on the table, it's on the table. "

this I like.

Get some coffee into me then I can vote. 
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Offline HMXHMX

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #43 on: 12/26/2012 04:40 pm »
When I asked Elon about the 2013 flight rate, he said he felt very confident that they'd launch 5. So I voted for 4.   ;D

Given that the official SpaceX manifest is for seven (or eight, depending on how you count Orbcomm) his is a curious prediction.  I'm sure customers are wondering which of their missions are not going to make their promised dates, since Elon apparently knows.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #44 on: 12/26/2012 05:03 pm »
When I asked Elon about the 2013 flight rate, he said he felt very confident that they'd launch 5. So I voted for 4.   ;D

Given that the official SpaceX manifest is for seven (or eight, depending on how you count Orbcomm) his is a curious prediction.  I'm sure customers are wondering which of their missions are not going to make their promised dates, since Elon apparently knows.
Manifest is for "hardware at the launch site." much of that will be in 2014, and 2014 will have a higher launch rate than 2013. I say that as someone who thinks it will be a good year if SpaceX gets 4 launches in 2013.
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #45 on: 12/26/2012 05:37 pm »
Given that the official SpaceX manifest is for seven (or eight, depending on how you count Orbcomm) his is a curious prediction.  I'm sure customers are wondering which of their missions are not going to make their promised dates, since Elon apparently knows.

Potentially 8 (+2 Orbcomm) for 2013.

CRS-2,3,4
MDA (first v1.1)
Heavy Demo (no one believes this will occur before 2014)
SES
ThaiCom
NSPO (West Coast, but before the Heavy Demo?)
Then the two OrbComm's (at least one if not both may fly in 2014)

I would give CRS-2 and MDA a high probability for 2013.
Medium probability are CRS-3, SES, Thaicom. If they have a good year, all three will fly.
CRS-4 and NSPO I would give even prob of slipping into 2014.
And that leaves the Heavy Demo and two Orbcomm flights. Does anyone believe 2013 is the year?

So where is the poll option for 10?
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Offline SpacexULA

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #46 on: 12/26/2012 05:42 pm »
When I asked Elon about the 2013 flight rate, he said he felt very confident that they'd launch 5. So I voted for 4.   ;D

Given that the official SpaceX manifest is for seven (or eight, depending on how you count Orbcomm) his is a curious prediction.  I'm sure customers are wondering which of their missions are not going to make their promised dates, since Elon apparently knows.
Manifest is for "hardware at the launch site." much of that will be in 2014, and 2014 will have a higher launch rate than 2013. I say that as someone who thinks it will be a good year if SpaceX gets 4 launches in 2013.

Right, given the infrastructure SpaceX is building up, with a Falcon Heavy/1.1 pad at both Vandenberg and the Cape, you could have a situation with 4 launches in 2013, 1 Falcon in each Hanger, and 2 more in the AO Hanger at the Cape, giving the 8 manifested flights by their own rules, but also matching the poll's guess of 4 actual flights.

So my prediction is 4 flights and 4 more rockets in the hangers by December 31 2013.  Everyone gets to be right.
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Offline HMXHMX

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #47 on: 12/26/2012 05:57 pm »
When I asked Elon about the 2013 flight rate, he said he felt very confident that they'd launch 5. So I voted for 4.   ;D

Given that the official SpaceX manifest is for seven (or eight, depending on how you count Orbcomm) his is a curious prediction.  I'm sure customers are wondering which of their missions are not going to make their promised dates, since Elon apparently knows.
Manifest is for "hardware at the launch site." much of that will be in 2014, and 2014 will have a higher launch rate than 2013. I say that as someone who thinks it will be a good year if SpaceX gets 4 launches in 2013.

Customers prefer hardware in orbit.   ;)

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #48 on: 12/26/2012 07:35 pm »
If Musk's 5 is accurate that is a schedule that would look something like this:

1) NLT 2013 April – CRS-2 (SLC-40) NLT date in order to do the v1.1 pad mods for SES NLT July launch.
2) NLT 2013 May – MDA (SLC-4) Contractual v1.1 and PLF required demonstrations prior to SES.
3) NLT 2013 July – SES (SLC-40) Contractual NLT for SES.
4) NLT 2013 October – CRS-3 (SLC-40) Requirement for CRS of about every 4 months (October is 2 months overdue).
5) NLT 2013 December – Orbcomm (SLC-40) Contractual requirement by Orbcomm to get the first elements of the constellation up soonest.

I show NLT dates to show how SpaceX needs to meet these to make the 5 launches in 2013.

If SES launches in early June and if they can get the processing interval to 2 months then CRS-3 could launch in August followed by Orbcomm in October and CRS-4 in December making the total 6. Thaicom would launch in Febuary 2014 followed by FH in March.

Probability of getting SES launched by early June I would say is about 50/50. Getting the processing interval down to 2 months is actually more likely >75% after the third v1.1 launch from a pad. It takes practice and a few flows to get the processing wrinkles out of the procedures.

6 is possible. I am an optimist. If you don't strive you won't see what can be done.
5 is 50/50. Will happen unless there are unforseen (to us on the forum)difficulties. There are just too many question marks for the probability to be better.
4 is a definite >80%.

Offline spectre9

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #49 on: 12/26/2012 09:09 pm »
I truly believe the chances of 4 launches is close to zero.

I'm not sure where all this faith is coming from.

Modifications for v1.1 will take ages and once they've launched it once they'll want to sit back for 6-8 months going over the data.

Antares didn't launch all year, nothing bad happened to Orbital. SpaceX can delay all they want after CRS-2. The penalties shouldn't be bad if there are any at all. We're waiting on Cygnus to resupply the station too, it's not all about Dragon in 2013.

SpaceX hasn't looked like launching a rocket with a payload fairing even though we know there is pressure from paying customers to do so. They could just not provide the service and get sued. We really don't know at this point, SpaceX isn't going to launch if they're not ready.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #50 on: 12/26/2012 09:56 pm »
Well, my opinion is that I'm still pretty new with the company to make a well-informed guess. But, based on things I've heard/know, state of hardware, etc. (Things I obviously can't talk about) how about I just say that my personal opinion falls with the general consensus of the board and ill keep it at that....

Maybe you can make a prediction and send it to Chris B (or other moderator) privately.  :-X Then he can proclaim your forecast as either cold, warm or hot when we review the crystal ball grazing next December.

For myself. I think SpaceX will not any hiccups next year and bravely predict 5+ launches.  ;D

Think the Falcon Heavy Demo will show up at VAFB with a minuscule chance of going up near the end of the year, if SpaceX manages to uneventfully orbit the MDA and the CRS-3 flights.

There is a movie opening next December featuring a large Dragon in a mountain. So hoping the FH will make an appearance at the same time.


Offline spectre9

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #51 on: 12/27/2012 12:29 am »
Can somebody please provide evidence to these optimistic claims of 4+ launches.

I know 2 are expected early on, Falcon 9 v1.0 CRS-2 SLC-40 and Falcon 9 v1.1 Cassiope at VAFB.

Then the cape must be modified for v1.1 to launch 3 more rockets CRS-3, multiple Orbcomm OG2s and SES8.

The chances of all that launching within the next 369 days?

Buckley's  8)

Quote
Yves Feltes, an SES spokesman, told Spaceflight Now the SES 8 launch is scheduled before the middle of 2013. The international operator has arranged a backup launch opportunity with Arianespace for an Ariane 5 launch.

From this story which is fantastic but doesn't really explain why/how SpaceX is launching so many rockets from the cape in 2013.

http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1211/17f9customers/#.UNuf4YfNYrU

Customers want the prices but they don't want to wait forever and the smart ones know the risk is there that they might so they book the backups.

Offline kch

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #52 on: 12/27/2012 01:03 am »

There is a movie opening next December featuring a large Dragon in a mountain. So hoping the FH will make an appearance at the same time.


Maybe the Smaug won't be too bad that day ... ;)

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #53 on: 12/27/2012 04:53 am »
Can somebody please provide evidence to these optimistic claims of 4+ launches.
(snip)

We know your opinion.  We saw your vote.
Please give it a rest.
You can come back in twelve months and say how you told us so.  Until then, let's wait and see.  OK?
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Offline grr

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #54 on: 12/27/2012 06:53 am »
I think 5-6, so I voted more than 5 (always the optimist). Basically, every 2 months apart for the first 4, and then 1 month apart.

But all of that depends on how quickly CSR-1's issue is figured out and solved. If they make the next launch in april, then it will be 4. However, if done in march, then I think that they will make 5-6.

Offline spectre9

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #55 on: 12/27/2012 08:07 am »
Can somebody please provide evidence to these optimistic claims of 4+ launches.
(snip)

We know your opinion.  We saw your vote.
Please give it a rest.
You can come back in twelve months and say how you told us so.  Until then, let's wait and see.  OK?

Many people are voting 4-5. Falcon 9 v1.1 hasn't even been seen yet. I think it's alarming that people have so much faith in a rocket that might not exist yet.

If it has been built it's under tight wraps.

I think posters are heavily discounting what modifying SLC-40 for the v1.1 will take.

Sure they might launch from VAFB but that pad hasn't even had it's first launch yet so there could be delays coming online. Even though I don't expect it to happen Cassiope has some chance of being launched in 2013.

Falcon 9 v1.1 is a vastly different rocket to it's predecessor. There will be so much work to do leading up to and after it's maiden launch that other launches might get pushed aside.

There's no harm in having a discussion with your poll.

Those that only want to vote and leave it at that are free to do so.

Offline Maciej Olesinski

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #56 on: 12/27/2012 08:27 am »
Voted 3 because of engine problem. I want to be wrong!

Offline woods170

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #57 on: 12/27/2012 08:46 am »
Modifications for v1.1 will take ages...
Unsubstantiated.

...and once they've launched it once they'll want to sit back for 6-8 months going over the data.
Unsubstantiated.

Antares didn't launch all year, nothing bad happened to Orbital.
Something very bad did happen to Orbital. Their launchpad got delayed, yet again, without Orbital being in the position to do anything about it. That's what you get for outsourcing your launchpad: no control.

SpaceX hasn't looked like launching a rocket with a payload fairing...
Unsubstantiated. From the SpaceX updates pages, and other news-sources, it is clear that SpaceX has been working on the fairing for quite some time now.

« Last Edit: 12/27/2012 08:49 am by woods170 »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #58 on: 12/27/2012 02:19 pm »
As annoying as Spectrelab is, I think he has a point. I want to vote 4 launches, but I don't see enough hardware or acceptance tests to justify such a choice. I am waiting for more information.
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Offline baldusi

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #59 on: 12/27/2012 02:53 pm »
Many people are voting 4-5. Falcon 9 v1.1 hasn't even been seen yet. I think it's alarming that people have so much faith in a rocket that might not exist yet.
You don't know what you're talking about. You lack even the basic understanding of the needs of disclosure and the payment schedule in this market.
V1.1 should have its primary structure qualified by now, the avionics are the same, the engines are fully qualified, the ground processing is almost the same.
Regardings the so called "pad mods", if you had spent a little tiny piece of time studying the pad, you'd realized that the HIF work is basically done, and the rest is just a new strongback. There are no further mod necessary. The work will, basically be, certification and acceptance tests.
What's more, consensus on this topic have been surprisingly good predictors. And if everybody else is stupid and only you are enlightened, the problem might be in your expectations.

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