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Blue Origin / Re: Blue Origin Space Capsule/Spacecraft
« Last post by DanClemmensen on Today at 11:47 am »There are two separate issues: cost of a mission, and demand.
The big problem, as always, is Starship. If SpaceX succeeds with a crewed EDL Starship, then I think a four-person or even a seven-person capsule will not be competitive.
Other than "Build it, and they will come," what demand is there for sending more than four (or seven) people to orbit, or beyond?
Sure, jumbo jets exist, but I don't see them being used to access the south pole, oil rigs, outback ranches....
Cost: The Starship model is a TSTO with the second stage also acting as the crewed spacecraft and all built on an assembly line that also builds other Starships, so low marginal build cost. It uses an infrastructure whose fundamental design goal is low marginal launch cost. It will be difficult for competitors to beat Starship's cost per mission even if the crew size is four. The incremental cost of additional seats (up to and probably beyond 20) will be very low.
Demand: This depends on your vision of crewed space missions. If all you see is CLDs that are slightly more capable than the ISS, plus Artemis-style Moon missions, then crews of four to six are all that is needed, but Starship will still be the least-cost approach. However, CLDs and Moon bases can be built to take advantage of the capacity of crewed Starship, with crew rotations of twenty or more.
Yes, unabashed Starship fans such as myself tend to believe that Starship is the solution to any problem. You (and all of us) must stay as objective as we can about the actual rate of progress of Starship development. Assuming immediate success without analysis is not reasonable. Ignoring Starship or assuming it will fail is also not reasonable.
I think Booster reuse will be reliable by the end of this year, Ship EDL and reuse by the end of 2026, and crewed EDL Starship by end of 2028. Make your own estimates, but I think this is what a BO spacecraft will be competing against.
