Do we have any good idea what the cost of a Falcon 9 launch would be if everything possible were reused? That is, what do these items cost:(1) The cost of any new parts required (stage 2, basically).(2) The cost of recovering the used parts (stage 1, fairing) from a prior launch.(3) The cost of bringing the two stages and a payload to a standing position on the launch pad.(4) The cost of launching the stack, including fuel and manpower requirements.All of the above are costs which will be incurred with every launch, no matter what. Any design changes to the Falcon itself are off topic here.
I have heard that the breakdown is roughly 60% stage 1, 20% stage 2, 10% fairing, 10% operations. So if the cost is 65 million and you reduce stage 1 and fairing by 85%*, that would bring the cost down to ~26 million. Higher volume would probably also bring down the operations costs substantially.* Based on the idea that they will build 40-50 block 5 boosters and have 300 flights before BFR comes online. With more flights, the costs come down more.
Well I was giving you the average cost while what you are talking about now is more the marginal cost. For marginal cost you are basically looking at this hypothetical: suppose it's 2020 and stage 1 and fairing reuse are common and you are doing 50 flights. What is the cost of adding flight 51?For marginal cost:Stage 1: ~zero, you have plenty of boosters that aren't yet at 10 flightsFairing: ~zero, you have plenty of recovered fairingsOperations: very low, maybe $15k, you just need to schedule a dozen plus control room people for another shiftFuel: ~200kSecond stage: Here is where all the costs are going to show up! But the thing is, how much will this cost if economies of scale start to kick in?-Merlin 1D Vacuum: ~1 million-Electronics and Avionics: Well the electronics are about equivalent to 3 high end gaming rigs and some cameras plus scheduling some workers for a few extra hours, <$100k-Second stage body and fittings: This is the part I really dont knowSo if you think that the cost of building a 51st second stage body in 2020 can be brought down to 4.5 million dollars, they can hit that 6 million dollar figure. For marginal cost.