Author Topic: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs  (Read 27675 times)

Offline 93143

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #20 on: 09/11/2013 09:56 pm »
You know, the reason non-SLS-haters have stopped arguing with you people is not that you have unanswerable truth on your side...

It's fashionable to hate SLS, and egregious distortions of carefully-selected known facts coupled with sarcastic dismissal of any other interpretation as fantasy are completely acceptable only on one side of the argument.  It gets exhausting.  It's probably a big part of why OV-106 got less and less cordial and helpful over the duration of his use of that handle.
« Last Edit: 09/11/2013 10:00 pm by 93143 »

Offline Jim

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #21 on: 09/11/2013 10:13 pm »
You know, the reason non-SLS-haters have stopped arguing with you people is not that you have unanswerable truth on your side...

It's fashionable to hate SLS, and egregious distortions of carefully-selected known facts coupled with sarcastic dismissal of any other interpretation as fantasy are completely acceptable only on one side of the argument.  It gets exhausting.  It's probably a big part of why OV-106 got less and less cordial and helpful over the duration of his use of that handle.

Quite the opposite, he just couldn't face the truth.

Just as I predicted the demise of Ares I, SLS will follow the same path.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #22 on: 09/11/2013 10:30 pm »
Dudes, this is going downhill fast.  Let's not get the thread locked.

Could we please stay focused on the topic:  studies that do the trades and conclude that an HLV, particularly a Shuttle-derived HLV, is better than the alternatives?

Offline 93143

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #23 on: 09/11/2013 10:51 pm »
Like I said:

http://www.jbis.org.uk/paper.php?p=2003.56.369

http://www.jbis.org.uk/paper.php?p=2003.56.362

There may be others; these were just the ones Mark Hempsell mentioned in that one post.

Perhaps not exactly what you asked for, but pretty close.
« Last Edit: 09/11/2013 10:56 pm by 93143 »

Offline newpylong

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #24 on: 09/12/2013 12:35 pm »
You routinely wack people for "speculation" but right here you are predicting the demise of a program that while facing serious budget issues, is making technical headway. Interesting...




Quite the opposite, he just couldn't face the truth.

Just as I predicted the demise of Ares I, SLS will follow the same path.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2013 01:30 pm by newpylong »

Offline muomega0

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #25 on: 09/12/2013 12:42 pm »
You know, the reason non-SLS-haters have stopped arguing with you people is not that you have unanswerable truth on your side...

It's fashionable to hate SLS, and egregious distortions of carefully-selected known facts coupled with sarcastic dismissal of any other interpretation as fantasy are completely acceptable only on one side of the argument.  It gets exhausting.  It's probably a big part of why OV-106 got less and less cordial and helpful over the duration of his use of that handle.
The heavy lift studies BAA initiated in 2010 contained a HLV study

Quote from: HLVStudyBAA
"NASA is laying the ground work to enable humans to safely reach multiple potential destinations, including the Moon, asteroids, Lagrange points, and Mars and its environs.
6.0   This BAA is soliciting proposals for Heavy Lift and Propulsion Technology Systems Analysis and Trade study and seeks industry input on technical solutions in support of heavy lift system concepts studies. These studies will capture potential system architectures and identify propulsion technology gaps (to include propellant tanks, main propulsion elements, health management, etc.).  This BAA request Offerors to expand upon the initial NASA technical assessments provided in the technical data package included.  This effort will include architecture assessments of a variety of heavy lift launch vehicle and in-space vehicle architectures employing various propulsion combinations and how they can be employed to meet multiple mission objectives.  A variety of in-space architectural elements, such as space transfer stages, space transfer vehicles, propellant depots may be included. The focus will be on developing system concepts that can be used by multiple end users with a strong emphasis on affordability, based on the offeror’s business assumption.

     Aerojet, Analytical Mechanics, Andrews Space, Alliant Techsystems, Boeing, LM, NG, OSC, PW, SAIC,     
     SpaceX, ULA, USA

NASA has spent decades improving the technology of shuttle, including selecting 13 companies to study heavy lift once again.  NASA could find and locate awards that total approximately $7.5 million with a maximum individual contract award of $625,000.

While any government action to stimulate growth is welcome, a focus on research and technology and skills development provides the seed-corn of long term sustainability. 

Perhaps these studies give new insight, but are they in the public domain?

You can read more about Why technology will drive down exploration costs.

Offline guru

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #26 on: 09/12/2013 04:00 pm »
They could fly 100 SLSes a year with a big enough budget.

Reminds me of a quote about tolerancing parts from my freshman CAD professor (back in '96): "Ten thousandths?!? You could send a dog through that if you got it going fast enough!"

I removed the rest of my comment as it was a bit much even for me.

~Jon

I think that was "if you got it spinning fast enough", but yes, Dr. Raisor was hilarious.  I also loved his "This will be true, always and forever - world's without end," and "Whoa, mister, back up the truck!" quotes.  (Sorry that that was off topic.  I now return you to your regularly scheduled HLV vs depot study conversation.)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #27 on: 09/12/2013 04:34 pm »
They could fly 100 SLSes a year with a big enough budget.

Reminds me of a quote about tolerancing parts from my freshman CAD professor (back in '96): "Ten thousandths?!? You could send a dog through that if you got it going fast enough!"

I removed the rest of my comment as it was a bit much even for me.

~Jon

I think that was "if you got it spinning fast enough", but yes, Dr. Raisor was hilarious.  I also loved his "This will be true, always and forever - world's without end," and "Whoa, mister, back up the truck!" quotes.  (Sorry that that was off topic.  I now return you to your regularly scheduled HLV vs depot study conversation.)
Not necessarily depot.
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Offline Oli

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #28 on: 09/13/2013 04:11 am »
Quote from: muomega0
The heavy lift studies BAA initiated in 2010 contained a HLV study

Am I mistaken or did the 33' RP-1 version win the competition hands down?

Offline darkbluenine

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #29 on: 09/13/2013 05:08 am »
And it would have kept climbing, if not for a system vulnerability that SLS doesn't share.

@93143:  So we don't continue running Proponent's thread off the rails with an off-topic discussion of SLS launch rates, I posted my response to your latest here:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27299.45

I may not keep up with discussion after this, but feel free to have at it there.  Thx.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #30 on: 09/13/2013 10:06 am »
Quote from: muomega0
The heavy lift studies BAA initiated in 2010 contained a HLV study

Am I mistaken or did the 33' RP-1 version win the competition hands down?

Yeah, the RAC-2 design came out looking best in the long run, but its up-front costs were higher.  All three RAC designs, though, were NASA-managed and NASA-specific HLVs, so the RAC study isn't relevant to this thread.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #31 on: 09/13/2013 10:22 pm »
Have you noticed tha 1.7mlbf is what the supposed Merlin 2 had of SL thrust? F-1A had 1.8, I think. And 33' was the Falcon XX proposal. Also had SIX of said engines. The more I look at it, the cloae it looks to the Falcon XX. Surprising,or not?

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #32 on: 09/13/2013 10:50 pm »
Cost comparison model of one LV vs another for a given BEO mission:

# of launches needed of LV "A" [to get X amount of payload to orbit in total time period Y] * the cost per launch

# of launches needed of LV "B" [to get X amount of payload to orbit in total time period Y] * the cost per launch

Delta cost/savings to payload to make it fit on the different LV
(NOTE: This could be a + or – value. Do not assume that because the replacement LV has a smaller payload that this aggregate delta will be an additional cost. It could be a savings. Such as since most of the payload to orbit is probably propellant a smaller tanker could represent a much cheaper alternative in delta costs even if dividing up the other systems increase the costs with a net negative delta when combined.)

Also note that to compare the two LV's the time period of launches must be over the same amount of time Y. Such as a 100mt HLV launching 5 times over 2 years vs a 10mt LV launching 50 times over 2 years. Once every 5 months vs 1 every 2 weeks. Frequency of launch figures greatly in the launch costs.

So the question to ask about a study is does it conform to this cost comparison model when comparing the mission costs for the mission using the candidate LV's? If not then the study is not a faithful cost comparison and costs cannot be a selection factor unless the total mission cost (payloads and LV's) difference is very significant > 20%.

The next question is if the mission success rate changes between the LV options? Here too a non-significant difference can become lost in the SN (signal-to-noise or accuracy +/- variance) possible.

The last question is the option detail technically feasible in the time until when the mission would be proposed to occur? Usually this encompasses a lot of assumptions and guesses and a great variance in development costs depending on the technology needed to be developed to make option N possible.

So the final item is if someone who has read through most of these studies to create a table for each mission type and fill in the values for the variables? This method of a summary can give better perspective and also may show where one option can have uses across multiple BEO mission types to be either no change or cheaper/eaiser/quicker.

BEO MissionLV OptionEquivalent payload to LEOLaunch period# of launchesLaunch costsPayload Delta cost/SavingsTotal Mission costNotes and needed technology to be developedStudy Citation

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #33 on: 09/13/2013 11:00 pm »
You know, the reason non-SLS-haters have stopped arguing with you people is not that you have unanswerable truth on your side...

It's fashionable to hate SLS, and egregious distortions of carefully-selected known facts coupled with sarcastic dismissal of any other interpretation as fantasy are completely acceptable only on one side of the argument.  It gets exhausting.  It's probably a big part of why OV-106 got less and less cordial and helpful over the duration of his use of that handle.

Quite the opposite, he just couldn't face the truth.

Just as I predicted the demise of Ares I, SLS will follow the same path.

And be replaced with what? What do you think SLS will be replaced with, Jim if it gets 'replaced' at all? What do you think and/or hope will happen?
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Offline Proponent

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #34 on: 09/14/2013 02:13 pm »
Interesting questions, but could we please keep it on topic:  trade studies recommending HLV over alternatives.  Could I suggest posting the question elsewhere.
« Last Edit: 09/15/2013 01:16 pm by Proponent »

Offline llanitedave

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #35 on: 09/14/2013 04:17 pm »
Quote from: muomega0
The heavy lift studies BAA initiated in 2010 contained a HLV study

Am I mistaken or did the 33' RP-1 version win the competition hands down?

Judging from some in this crowd, the 33 1/3 rpm vinyl records are the winners.
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Offline spectre9

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #36 on: 09/15/2013 10:04 am »
I found another good one.

This one is from before SLS. It gives the thumbs up for heavy lift.

This mentions heavy lift a couple a times. They seem keen on NASA heavy lift with Orion.

Red Rocks.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #37 on: 09/15/2013 01:15 pm »
But that study does not compare Shuttle-derived heavy lift with other options.


Just to review where I coming from....  As mentioned in the OP, there are several studies out there suggesting that non-HLV architectures are much cheaper than Shuttle-derived HLVs for launching BEO missions of one sort or another.  I've read these studies, and it seems to me they make a pretty good case.  That's why I tend to like depots (and not because I rocket with "NASA" written on the side).  But I would really like to see comprehensive criticism the concept in comparison with alternatives.  Lots of people raise reasonable concerns, e.g., the increased complexity and its impact on reliability, but these one-shot criticisms aren't very informative.  But, for one thing, many of them are addressed in the studies mentioned.  More importantly, though, every architecture has its weaknesses: to make a sensible choice among them, one must consider each as a whole, weighing up its overall strengths and weaknesses against those of the alternatives.  If Shuttle-derived HLVs or even commercially-operated HLVs really are the way to go (and the certainly do have advantages), can't we see a comprehensive argument making the case?

In short, I'd like to have a better basis for discussion among the alternatives than usual "You hate NASA!"-"You only care about pork!" kinds of shouting matches that we usually have.

P.S.  I am certain there are scenarios in which the very best thing to do is build a Shuttle-derived HLV, and I am sure there are scenarios in which the very best thing to do is build a commercial HLV.  I haven't seen much evidence, though, that we're in any of those scenarios.
« Last Edit: 09/15/2013 01:42 pm by Proponent »

Offline deltaV

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #38 on: 09/29/2013 07:59 pm »
Can anyone point to other studies that consider the options for one sort of BEO mission or another and do not recommend depots?

The Augustine Committee considered propellant depots but for various reasons recommended the development of a super-heavy launch vehicle anyway. See section 5.2.1 of the report: http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/396093main_HSF_Cmte_FinalReport.pdf.

However the Augustine Committee also stated that without more money meaningful manned BEO exploration was not possible. Such a robust budget seems unlikely so the relevance of their advice to current NASA decision-making is unclear. I'm simply pointing out their report since you asked for pointers.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Studies Supporting Use of HLVs for BEO Programs
« Reply #39 on: 10/11/2013 11:53 am »
The Augustine Committee considered propellant depots but for various reasons recommended the development of a super-heavy launch vehicle anyway. See section 5.2.1 of the report: http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/396093main_HSF_Cmte_FinalReport.pdf.

As far as I can tell, Augustine insists that a launch vehicle of at least 50 tonnes' capability is needed, but I don't see where it recommends a super-heavy.

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