Author Topic: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule  (Read 31761 times)

Offline OccasionalTraveller

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Re: Re: SpaceX Core Spotting
« Reply #40 on: 04/12/2019 11:53 am »
So looking at the core reuse schedule. Only two used cores currently on the West coast - 1046 and 1049. Both of them should have been refurbished by this time. There is only one upcoming launch from Vandenberg - Radarsat. 1051.2 currently scheduled for that mission was just seen next to FH. The Radarsat mission is NET May 16 as of right now. That is 75 days since the previous mission, a day longer than the fastest turnaround. Could 1049.3 be reassigned to Radarsat and 1051.2 to a CRS mission? That would make logistical sense from SpaceX point of view, but I'm not sure how flexible the contracts are that close to launches.

The consensus over on the Radarsat discussion thread is that the customer is only happy with a second reuse (B10XX.2), not a third. They were supposed to be the second launch of B1050, the CRS-16 booster, but its little pirouette into the ocean ruled that out. They could have launched already if they were prepared to use one of the other stockpiled boosters.

Or perhaps the issue is that they only want to use a booster that has performed a LEO mission, not GTO or beyond. In either case, the only core that currently meets their requirements is B1051.2.

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #41 on: 07/12/2019 03:14 pm »
Copying my comments here from the first post

Marked 1057 "landing aborted" following comments and speculations in the STP-2 discussion thread. Might have to change it to "unsuccessful". Some observations/questions
 * 4 of the 12 cores flown so far are lost/expended
 * Side booster's fast turnaround is helping the average for the rest of the available fleet down to 101 days from 111 previously.
 * Which will be the first booster to do a 4th flight? I wrongly predicted 1048 to be the first core to have a third mission, but I'll stick my neck out again and speculate that it will make history for the fourth reuse.
 * 1047.3 is at 239 days since last launch, more than double it's first turnaround time and was passed over for the Starlink mission. Was that booster damaged more than usual/expected or is this just a coincidence of booster locations?
 * Is core 1050 scrapped/ retired? I have not grayed it out completely, but definitely feels like it's gone. On the other hand at 219 days since launch, it's not even the longest sitting core and given the extensive damage it maybe just a little bit early to write it off.
 * Is there any info on new cores coming out to McGregor for testing? It seems that we should have seen 1058. Is the refurbishment process cutting into the production process?
 * Now that the next FH flight is some time away would the side boosters be converted to regular cores? Without the side boosters and without the slated to be expended 1046, SpX will have 5 cores in service. If we exclude 1056 and the CRS missions, the remaining 4 boosters will have to do 7 flights. That's not impossible by any means, but much more achievable before the end of the year with the sides available as regular cores and maybe 1-2 new cores.
« Last Edit: 07/12/2019 03:17 pm by Stefan.Christoff.19 »

Offline HiHatWhenItsClosed

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #42 on: 07/12/2019 09:53 pm »
I bet 1058 is for DM-2, and so we wouldn't necessarily see it for a while.

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #43 on: 08/09/2019 04:27 am »
Updated schedule in the first post

 * RIP 1047.
 * I'm predicting 1048 and 1049 to make history with fourth reuse launching Starlink sats. 1048.4 at 169 days since its last launch seems to be the candidate to be used first. Alternatively, they can expend 1048.4 on the JCSAT-18/Kacific-1 launch since it's a heavy payload to GTO (6,800kg per Manifest) and keep 1049 servicing the Starlink flights
 * If the Manifest moves around we could potentially see 1046 in the mix with the IFA Test flight.
 * We still have no info on 1050
 * 1058 has  shown up to test at McGregor just as we wondered when that will happen

Offline ZachS09

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #44 on: 08/09/2019 04:28 am »
I thought B1050 was down and out forever after SpX-16.
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #45 on: 08/09/2019 04:47 am »
I thought B1050 was down and out forever after SpX-16.

Most likely it is, but we don't know for sure at this point. There was some talk that the damage is mostly to the interstage. Back in the day of Block 3 and 4 we used to see cores behind different buildings mothballed, but no one has spotted 1050 yet. The Reddit core wiki page says "future utility unknown". So I have the number in grey but not the mission spaces.

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #46 on: 01/09/2020 04:12 am »
Updated schedule in the PDF attached here and to the first post
With some 28 cores flown (block 5) we have a little bit of history so I put some charts together

 * The prediction of 1048 and 1049 to be the first two cores to do a fourth flight held. At almost 60 days since it's last flight, I wonder if 1048 will set a new record for cycle time or would they need to use another core. If another core is required would they move 1051.3 to the East coast or maybe one or both of the FH side boosters are converted back for regular use.
 * We have not seen any new cores have a test at McGregor or been spoted travelling.
 * 1056 and 1059 are fairly fresh from flight and I doubt they see action this soon. 1059 also seems to be the new CRS booster.
 * Once 1046.4 is expanded they will be down to 8 cores. Assuming we see another new core soon they can do roughly 27 flights for the year at the average cycle time. That could be a little bit low as we know that payload availbility dictated schedule last year so the avergage cycle time is a bit inflated.

Offline freddo411

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #47 on: 01/09/2020 04:21 am »
Updated schedule in the PDF attached here and to the first post
With some 28 cores flown (block 5) we have a little bit of history so I put some charts together



Fantastic work.
   
I think it would be even easier for the average NSF-er to consume this if you posted this as two jpgs, along with or replacing the pdf.



Offline mark_m

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #48 on: 01/09/2020 03:56 pm »
Updated schedule in the PDF attached here and to the first post
With some 28 cores flown (block 5) we have a little bit of history so I put some charts together



Fantastic work.
   
I think it would be even easier for the average NSF-er to consume this if you posted this as two jpgs, along with or replacing the pdf.
+1 on the fantastic work!

My 2˘, I much prefer the vector PDF vs a raster image like a jpeg, so it'd be great if PDF is at least retained as an option.

[Edit: grammar]
« Last Edit: 01/09/2020 04:14 pm by mark_m »

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #49 on: 01/10/2020 02:12 am »
Updated schedule in the PDF attached here and to the first post
With some 28 cores flown (block 5) we have a little bit of history so I put some charts together



Fantastic work.
   
I think it would be even easier for the average NSF-er to consume this if you posted this as two jpgs, along with or replacing the pdf.
+1 on the fantastic work!

My 2˘, I much prefer the vector PDF vs a raster image like a jpeg, so it'd be great if PDF is at least retained as an option.

[Edit: grammar]

Thank you, inlcuded jpgs for easier viewing. Pdf is still there too

Offline Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #50 on: 06/19/2020 12:22 am »
Updated slides in the first post

Offline ChrisC

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #51 on: 06/19/2020 02:46 am »
This is really great work!

My only nitpicks would be about the updated date: it should be a little easier to spot (at the top or bottom margin someplace), should say "Last updated:" before it, and should use an internationally unambiguous date format like DD-MMM-YYYY (e.g. 18-Jun-2020).

EDIT: Please don't derail into pedantry about the specific date format.  Just pick one that's unambiguous please :)  Thanks again SC19 for the great work.
« Last Edit: 06/19/2020 06:17 pm by ChrisC »
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Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #52 on: 06/19/2020 05:39 pm »
This is really great work!

My only nitpicks would be about the updated date: it should be a little easier to spot (at the top or bottom margin someplace), should say "Last updated:" before it, and should use an internationally unambiguous date format like DD-MMM-YYYY (e.g. 18-Jun-2020).

Actually, the ISO standard is YYYY-MM-DD. It is unambiguous, chronological and alphabetical order is the same, and is language neutral (still written left to right).

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #53 on: 06/19/2020 07:05 pm »
This is great
One thing not on the list, and quite relevant to current discussions, is the date the booster is shipped either from Hawthorne to McGregor or from McGregor to one of the launch sites.
SpaceX has an upcoming flurry of launches seeming to need boosters recycled faster than demonstrated to date, and landed successfully every time. The paucity of new boosters coming down the pipeline says to me that SpaceX is REALLY “leaning forward” on successful, rapid reuse.
When, oh when will we see 1062?

PS ChrisC: Telling is not to get pedantic about date formats is like telling the wind not to blow. Go ISO or go home. :D
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #54 on: 06/19/2020 08:22 pm »
Since this list is about reuse, I don't think putting the shipment times from Hawthorne or McGregor would make much sense since that is only done for new boosters not used ones. And they'll have to make three boosters from now till September-October for the next FH launch. I wonder when we'll see the hardware for that. I already expected this last booster seen last month to be a FH center core but pictures of it on the McGregor stand show the Falcon 9 logo so nope, we might have to wait some more for that to come. It's always great to see FH hardware in the launch flow

Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #55 on: 06/21/2020 01:51 pm »
So now that we know B1058.2 is flying ANASIS, here is my guess at assignments for the rest of the cores in the immediate future:

B1049, 1059, and 1051: life-leader boosters that will be assigned only to Starlink missions
B1060: will fly GPS at the end of the month, and [my guess] SAOCOM 1B no earlier than late July.
B1058: ANASIS-II, then could be added to Starlink rotation or, as it will be a valuable lightly-flown booster, reserved for customer missions like Turksat.
B1052 and 53: still a wildcard, don't know anything about SpX's plans for them, but they could be put into the rotation at any time and add some much needed cores to the rotation.
B1061 and 1062: brand-new boosters for missions later this year, after that they will be valuable for paying customers, one might get sent West for the Vandenberg missions starting with Sentinel 6A.

Total guesses, but let me know if you have some corrections or other comments!
« Last Edit: 06/21/2020 02:07 pm by LandingZone-1 »

Offline scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #56 on: 06/21/2020 02:06 pm »

B1061 and 1062: brand-new boosters for missions later this year, one might get sent West for the Vandenberg missions starting with Sentinel 6A.

We already know B1061 will be used on Crew-1 and B1062 on GPSIII-SV04.

B1063 is currently in McGregor but it's unclear which mission it is intended for.

Re: SpaceX Core Reuse Schedule
« Reply #57 on: 06/21/2020 02:12 pm »
Quote
We already know B1061 will be used on Crew-1 and B1062 on GPSIII-SV04.

B1063 is currently in McGregor but it's unclear which mission it is intended for.

Oh, I understand that, edited to show that I mean "after those missions."

And yes, I saw that, but I'm still not sure if it's 62 or 63. I would have thought 63 would be part of the FH for USSF-44 so it will be interesting to see what mission it is meant for. Another GPS? Surely it's not for CRS-21.
« Last Edit: 06/21/2020 02:16 pm by LandingZone-1 »

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