Predictions for Starship Flight 5

[mordroberon]

Now that Starship's 4th flight is behind us, let's look ahead to the next one, (and sorry JohnsterSpaceProgram for stepping on your toes, just wanted to start this up before too much information comes out about the next flight)

Previous Prediction thread: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60549.0

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My predictions, with prediction certainty, my "bins" are {50%, 75%, 90%, 99%}

Vehicles: Booster 12, Ship 30 [99%]

Launch Date: August 2024 (Narrow that down to first 2 weeks of Aug) [75%]

Mission Profile: Insertion into same orbital trajectory as IFT 3/4 [75%], no payload [75%], will test "pez dispenser" doors [75%], will test ship engine relight [90%], will not attempt tower catch [50%]

Expected outcome:
- Booster: All booster engines light and remain powered through ascent [50%], all planned engines light for boost-back burn [75%], all planned engines light for booster landing burn [75%] , booster has successful soft landing in Gulf of Mexico [90%]
- Ship: ship engines all light [90%], ship reaches target trajectory [90%], successful test of opening and closing payload bay door, given it is planned [90%], successful engine relight [75%], starship survives re-entry [50%], starship lights engines for landing burn and soft-lands in ocean [50%]

[Slarty1080]

Vehicles: Booster 12, Ship 30 [90%]

Launch date w/c 27th July [50%] failing that August [75%]

Mission Profile: Insertion into same orbital trajectory as IFT 3/4 [99%], no payload [90%], will test "pez dispenser" doors [75%], will test ship engine relight [99%], will not attempt tower catch [50%]

Expected outcome:
- Booster: All booster engines light and remain powered through ascent [75%], all planned engines light for boost-back burn [75%], all planned engines light for booster landing burn [75%] , booster has successful soft landing in Gulf of Mexico [90%]

- Ship: ship engines all light [90%], ship reaches target trajectory [90%], successful test of opening and closing payload bay door, given it is planned [90%], successful engine relight [90%], starship survives re-entry [75%], starship lights engines for landing burn and soft-lands in ocean [75%]

[wannamoonbase]

Booster 12
Ship 30

Mission profile nearly identical.

Preface: These predictions are based on 6-8 weeks until IFT-5, if longer than that, add booster catch.

Primary objectives: 
1) Improve booster flyback and landing performance, trajectory and simulated landing (100%, move to first catch on IFT-6)
2) Continue to improve raptor relight performance (100%, they get all the engines each time on the booster for IFT-5)
3) On orbit maneuvering of Starship (100%, but can't wait for hot gas thrusters)
4) (Multiple) On orbit raptor relight (100%)
5) Expand the envelope on ship maneuvering and control during re-entry (100%)
5) Ship's new heatshield iteration test.  (Better, not great, flap seals still under perform)

Would be interested to hear from others if they will do multiple single engine firings on orbit.


Edit: The hot staging on IFT-4 has some impressive tweaks.  I'm sure they'll continue to make minute adjustments to the liftoff and staging.