Author Topic: Predictions for Starship IFT-3 (Read 60020 times)

JohnsterSpaceProgram · « **on:** 12/05/2023 12:17 am »

Since it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59531.0), although this one will be a little different.

You can either put your predictions in a reply to this post, or add it to my IFT-3 predictions spreadsheet, which you can fill out here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLzdPCsyB7oZgIODzBblGvzBOaSipdPt4frOHPzWNXI.

Anyways, here are my predictions:
Flight Pairing: Booster 10 And Ship 28 (B10/S28)
Launch Date: Sometime in January 2024
Mission Success Chance: 75% (The hotstaging would most likely be successful again, but maybe the booster experiences a RUD near the end of the boostback burn or during the simulated landing burn over water, and the ship survives all the way to reentry but is then lost during reentry due to losing too many heat shield tiles).

I could end up being totally wrong (especially in regards to the launch date prediction, which is a bit ambitious, but not totally impossible given the current state of the launch site), but those are just my predictions. Now I'd like to hear what your predictions are for the third integrated flight of SpaceX's Starship vehicle.

Ke8ort · « **Reply #1 on:** 12/05/2023 12:42 am »

First time posting on NSF, so hello everyone! Here’s my predictions:

Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: late January, early February 2024
Mission Success Chance: Successful hot staging, but late RUD of super heavy during boostback or landing. Successful partial orbit from Starship, successful reentry but harder than expected landing into the drink.

I may be completely wrong as well, but we shall see! Looking forward to this launch though!

catdlr · « **Reply #2 on:** 12/05/2023 01:40 am »

Quote from: Ke8ort on 12/05/2023 12:42 am

First time posting on NSF, so hello everyone! Here’s my predictions:

Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: late January, early February 2024
Mission Success Chance: Successful hot staging, but late RUD of super heavy during boostback or landing. Successful partial orbit from Starship, successful reentry but harder than expected landing into the drink.

I may be completely wrong as well, but we shall see! Looking forward to this launch though!

Ke8ort, Welcome to the Forum. Vote well. I did, did you!!

catdlr · « **Reply #3 on:** 12/05/2023 01:49 am »

Quote from: JohnsterSpaceProgram on 12/05/2023 12:17 am

Since it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread

JohnsterSpaceProgram,
I see you have logged 30 posts, and most of them are in the Road Closure notices. We thank you for doing that. If you have not done so, please allow me to welcome you to the forum. Thanks for what you do.

Best
Tony

lightleviathan · « **Reply #4 on:** 12/05/2023 02:00 am »

Vehicles: B10/S28
Launch Date: Late January
Mission Success Chance: Successful hot-staging, and successful boostback. Booster fails to complete landing burn, and Ship goes into sub-orbit. Propellant transfer demo has heavy slosh and messes with the task structure of the Ship and it fails on entry.

TomH · « **Reply #5 on:** 12/05/2023 02:44 am »

Quote from: Ke8ort on 12/05/2023 12:42 am

Successful partial orbit from Starship, successful reentry but harder than expected landing into the drink.

Profile for IFT-2 was to be no flip or landing burn. If the same for IFT-3, that would simply be a belly-buster @ terminal velocity.

zodiacchris · « **Reply #6 on:** 12/05/2023 02:51 am »

We all seem to be pretty aligned here! My take is third time’s a charm, B10/S28 launch successfully, good staging and boost back, but no soft water landing for B10 despite some of the engines lighting up.
S28 reaches suborbital trajectory as planned, Success!!
Ship deorbits but gets lost at some stage as it re-enters, sending back valuable data as a parting gift…

ZachS09 · « **Reply #7 on:** 12/05/2023 03:36 am »

Vehicles: B10/S28
Launch date: Somewhere between last week of January and first week of February
Mission success probability: 95%.

Hot-staging succeeds again, and the booster makes a soft splashdown in the gulf as intended. Ship 28 goes suborbital as planned in addition to a successful propellant transfer test. But the tiles on Ship 28 don't protect it during reentry and it breaks up fairly early during entry interface.

WindWatcherX · « **Reply #8 on:** 12/05/2023 03:36 am »

Flight Pairing: S28/B10
Launch Date: Late January
Mission Success Chance: 85%: Successful hot staging, super heavy completes boostback but no softlanding in the Gulf. Successful 3+ orbits from Starship, data on fuel movement between tanks. Successful de-orbit burn but reentry has late breakup but data collected.

Twark_Main · « **Reply #9 on:** 12/05/2023 03:44 am »

28+10, February, It blows up on the pad, so 0%.

Y'all are forgetting that for SpaceX, the fourth time's the charm.

sdsds · « **Reply #10 on:** 12/05/2023 03:47 am »

Booster B10
Ship S28
Launch Date FEBRUARY 2024
Booster RUD Chance 10% - could happen anywhere
Ship RUD Chance 75% - Likely Early in Reentry
Flight Success Chance 95%
What Would You Consider As A "Successful" Mission? Flying fully orbital missions next.

Perchlorate · « **Reply #11 on:** 12/05/2023 03:51 am »

Probability of "Success": 90%

I'm going a little differently. I believe 10/28 will launch in mid-February 2024, Ship 28 will complete its burn to near-orbit, decelerate and survive reentry with minor to moderate damage. I believe there will be tiles lost, but no so many that the robust stainless steel Ship will fail structurally. I believe it will arrive at the ocean more or less where it's supposed to, but the damage due to lost tiles may damage the ability to properly ignite engines and rotate after the bellyflop.

I'm a little more pessimistic about Booster 10. Not knowing the data that SpaceX is now dissecting, I fear it will take 2-3 more tries before they find the "secret sauce" of how to hot-stage, then flip, keep some engines burning and start up others. I'd love to be wrong about that part...

llanitedave · « **Reply #12 on:** 12/05/2023 04:22 am »

Aren't they changing the way they attach the tiles for this particular ship? For me, I am no more capable of predicting the outcome than I am prophecy, so I will only say I believe they will correct the issues that caused the loss of the IFT-2 vehicles. What new issues may bedevil them, I can't say, but I'm hopeful that the outcome will be progress in the right direction.

JohnsterSpaceProgram · « **Reply #13 on:** 12/05/2023 04:48 am »

Quote from: JohnsterSpaceProgram on 12/05/2023 12:17 am

Since it's been a few weeks since the launch of the second integrated flight test (IFT-2), I thought that I would start a predictions thread for the third flight. This will be similar to this IFT-2 predictions thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=59531.0), although this one will be a little different.

You can either put your predictions in a reply to this post, or add it to my IFT-3 predictions spreadsheet, which you can fill out here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qLzdPCsyB7oZgIODzBblGvzBOaSipdPt4frOHPzWNXI.

Anyways, here are my predictions:
Flight Pairing: Booster 10 And Ship 28 (B10/S28)
Launch Date: Sometime in January 2024
Mission Success Chance: 75% (The hotstaging would most likely be successful again, but maybe the booster experiences a RUD near the end of the boostback burn or during the simulated landing burn over water, and the ship survives all the way to reentry but is then lost during reentry due to losing too many heat shield tiles).

I could end up being totally wrong (especially in regards to the launch date prediction, which is a bit ambitious, but not totally impossible given the current state of the launch site), but those are just my predictions. Now I'd like to hear what your predictions are for the third integrated flight of SpaceX's Starship vehicle.

And here's my prediction on what the testing and work flow could end up being like for Booster 10 and Ship 28 for the testing that remains ahead of launch (this would be in the best case scenario, where no major issues occur during either vehicle's test campaigns):

Ship 28's work is completed >>> S28 rolls out and is installed on the suborbital pad for static fire testing >>> Booster 10's work is completed >>> B10 rolls out and is installed on the orbital launch mount for static fire testing >>> S28 completes a 6 engine spin prime & static fire not long after B10's installation on the OLM >>> B10 completes a 33 engine spin prime & static fire not long after S28's static fire >>> S28 is removed from the suborbital pad, any needed work following the static fire is completed, and the ship is then moved over to the orbital launch site, followed by the stacking of S28 on B10 for the first time >>> The B10 & S28 full stack complete a wet dress rehearsal >>> S28 is destacked from B10 and any needed work is completed while waiting for a launch license >>> Following the approval of a launch license, a target launch date is announced followed by the arming of the FTS on both vehicles not long afterwards >>> Shortly before the first launch attempt, S28 and B10 and stacked for the last time ahead of that attempt >>> The launch of IFT-3 either occurs on the first attempt, or is scrubbed to a later date.

Seeing how IFT-2 launched on the first attempt, I wouldn't be surprised if that is also the case for IFT-3. I would also like to see your predictions for what you think the testing & work flow for both vehicles could end up being like.

Riccardo11 · « **Reply #14 on:** 12/05/2023 07:28 am »

I think they will mostly get it right: successful separation, ship reaches orbit and survives re-entry. I am also a bit pessimistic about the SH landing.

Contrary to many posts above, I think the test will be later, probably April 2024.

RobLynn · « **Reply #15 on:** 12/05/2023 07:43 am »

I'll say all the way in late January '24. Lots of tile loss on SS but underlying blanket will keep it flying and it will make it to virtual over-ocean landing OK, (even if resultant hot spots would have condemned airframe) SH will do everything it needs to now that they are aware of and can mitigate issues in the flip.

Lampyridae · « **Reply #16 on:** 12/05/2023 08:10 am »

Flight Pairing: B10/S28
Launch Date: Early February 2024
Mission Success Chance:
Booster RUD chance: 66% (completes flip but most likely has engine failure during landing burn)
Ship RUD chance: 30% (completes burn but fails during re-entry)
Overall mission success: 70% (weighted for Ship accomplishments, but some minor issues may crop up such as failure to demonstrate prop transfer, deploy cheese wheel from payload bay etc)

JohnsterSpaceProgram · « **Reply #17 on:** 12/05/2023 11:53 am »

And like with that other IFT-2 predictions spreadsheet, when something major happens relating to IFT-3 (such as the approval of a launch license, or when a wet dress rehearsal occurs), I'll add it to the IFT-3 predictions sheet so everyone can see which predictions were made before certain events happened. As an example, they will look similar to what is shown in the image attached to this post.

martiantime · « **Reply #18 on:** 12/05/2023 01:20 pm »

Everybody names S28, nobody names S26.
Ok, let it be my prediction - S26.
Let it be my little support for those who worked on the S26 and prepared it... for something.

Ke8ort · « **Reply #19 on:** 12/05/2023 01:47 pm »

Don't know if this is the right place to ask this, but I figured I'd ask here since a lot of people have been predicting about it.

Do we know what material the TPS is made of? Are there expansion joints between the outer mold line and the tiles themselves, or are they just glued on there? I don't know how hot the surface behind the TPS gets, but COE mismatch is a big deal for mounting composite components to metal surfaces.

Again, don't know if this is the right place to ask. If someone has already answered this somewhere else on the forum, please redirect me! I can also delete this post if it's in the wrong place.