2022 Poll: Which SHLV Will Successfully Fly First?

[spacenut]

Starship also had other delays, such as mountains of paperwork, and lots of hoops to jump through at Boca Chica with the various government agencies.  The first version, had they obtained the permitting, probably could have already launched.  In the meantime while waiting on permitting, they developed Raptor 2 and increased the number of engines on the base of the booster.  They have also started a launch mount at Cape Kennedy, to avoid permitting problems, and are building a factory in Florida. 

SLS required no new factories to be built.  Just a new transporter due to its huge mass. 

I agree, this thread should be locked.  A good long range pole should be, which one will outlast the other. 

[eeergo]

Starship also had other delays, such as mountains of paperwork, and lots of hoops to jump through at Boca Chica with the various government agencies.  The first version, had they obtained the permitting, probably could have already launched.

That's quite surely untrue, as even Starship proponents are ready to admit. However, for the sake of argument, had permitting not even been required, with the issues discovered in the meantime with both Raptor and SH (forgetting about the upper stage SS for a moment), it would most possibly been a failed launch.

In the meantime while waiting on permitting, they developed Raptor 2 and increased the number of engines on the base of the booster.  They have also started a launch mount at Cape Kennedy, to avoid permitting problems, and are building a factory in Florida.  SLS required no new factories to be built.  Just a new transporter due to its huge mass. 

SLS also had lots of bureaucratic and paperwork issues, stop-work orders for a myriad of reasons including governmentally-imposed redesigns, rescopings, logistical delays from not being wonderfully vertically-integrated an relying on a broad industrial base plus international partnerships, employee welfare issues... that Boca Chica didn't experience. Yet its payload is currently approaching the Moon.

I agree, this thread should be locked.  A good long range pole should be, which one will outlast the other. 

Agreed about the thread lock, this poll has shown what it had to show (along with the other 3-4 similar ones with titles that attempted to fine-tune the definition of "first" in this "race that never existed")

I'd suggest a more measurable, more pertinent follow-up thread would be "Which SHLV will fly crews to the Moon first?", for instance.

[Lar]

So it would seem the "wisdom of crowds" isn't always perfect.

Congrats to all the SLS voters!

(Don't make me say "congrats to SLS" ... I just won't do it )

To those making paperwork excuses for Starship ( can we NOT use SS as an abbreviation??? just rubs me the wrong way).... the poll wasn't about who had better excuses for not launching first. SLS won. Deal with it.   (my personal coping strategy involves alcohol but you do you)

[rockets4life97]

I voted for Starship. I thought SLS would be delayed (it was). But I thought a full stack Starship prototype would have flown by now. I would say I underestimated the time it takes to build the pad infrastructure (stage zero).

[Vahe231991]

I voted for Starship. I thought SLS would be delayed (it was). But I thought a full stack Starship prototype would have flown by now. I would say I underestimated the time it takes to build the pad infrastructure (stage zero).

The need for SpaceX to get approval from FAA to operate the Starship rocket from the Starbase meant that the SLS flew first. We'll see if the first orbital Starship flight is successful.

[soyuzu]

I voted for Starship. I thought SLS would be delayed (it was). But I thought a full stack Starship prototype would have flown by now. I would say I underestimated the time it takes to build the pad infrastructure (stage zero).

The need for SpaceX to get approval from FAA to operate the Starship rocket from the Starbase meant that the SLS flew first. We'll see if the first orbital Starship flight is successful.

Conspiracy surely doesn’t help with either schedule or success rate, anyway.