Poll

When will the first Starship reach orbit?

January 2021 or earlier
1 (0.4%)
February 2021
3 (1.1%)
March 2021
7 (2.5%)
April 2021
9 (3.2%)
May 2021
12 (4.3%)
June 2021
20 (7.1%)
July 2021
26 (9.3%)
August 2021
22 (7.8%)
September 2021
26 (9.3%)
October 2021
40 (14.2%)
November 2021
17 (6%)
December 2021
27 (9.6%)
January 2022
6 (2.1%)
February 2022
9 (3.2%)
March 2022
9 (3.2%)
April 2022
8 (2.8%)
May 2022 or later
39 (13.9%)
Never
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 281

Voting closed: 01/27/2021 09:58 pm


Author Topic: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)  (Read 38590 times)

Offline QuantumG

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Here we are again.  ;D

The previous poll ended without a result, and here's Elon's word on the subject:

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1317229714025623553

What do you think? When will a Starship prototype reach orbit?

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #1 on: 10/20/2020 12:15 am »
There are always surprises in development so I voted Feb 2022.

Offline tyrred

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #2 on: 10/20/2020 01:11 am »
April 1st 2021

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #3 on: 10/20/2020 01:14 am »
Because Elon recently said the mid teens, and we are already seeing parts for SN-14,
And because Eric vote Feb 2022, I voted Feb 2021.  ;D
I voted April 2020 last year, so yeah, I'm on Elon time, as of last Sept 2019 :) hahaha
Gramps "Earthling by Birth, Martian by the grace of The Elon." ~ "Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou ~ Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Offline dglow

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Online Lampyridae

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #5 on: 10/20/2020 09:12 am »
I just picked September 2021 based on gut feel.

Offline intelati

I'll split the difference of April and September.

June.
Starships are meant to fly

Offline rsdavis9

I went with august as its my bday month.
I personally think april is possible.
Remember this has nothing to do with reentry.
With ELV best efficiency was the paradigm. The new paradigm is reusable, good enough, and commonality of design.
Same engines. Design once. Same vehicle. Design once. Reusable. Build once.

Offline dglow

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #8 on: 10/20/2020 03:49 pm »
Remember this has nothing to do with reentry.

To the letter of the poll question. ‘Reaching orbit’ does not require reentry – agreed.

But Musk can’t use SH without its return being demonstrated. And he won’t try with SS until he thinks there’s at least a chance at successful reentry.
« Last Edit: 10/20/2020 03:51 pm by dglow »

Offline Hog

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #9 on: 10/20/2020 04:32 pm »
Here we are again.  ;D

The previous poll ended without a result, and here's Elon's word on the subject:

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1317229714025623553

What do you think? When will a Starship prototype reach orbit?
By "shuttle booster" does Elon mean the SuperHeavy booster section?
Paul

Offline ncb1397

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #10 on: 10/20/2020 04:42 pm »
Here we are again.  ;D

The previous poll ended without a result, and here's Elon's word on the subject:

What do you mean "ended without a result"? The previous poll still applies, doesn't it? This is just a poll with slightly different options and a different start and end date. It seems like the previous poll's predominant response even is likely to be correct with the most votes being May 2021 or later. Seems like it did have a result(or will have one relatively soon) in terms of which option was correct (although I guess we have to see it fly to orbit once to distinguish between "never" and "may 2021 or later"?

I would recommend just putting quarters in here so we don't have to redo the poll every year.
« Last Edit: 10/20/2020 04:47 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #11 on: 10/20/2020 11:53 pm »
I would recommend just putting quarters in here so we don't have to redo the poll every year.

Where's the fun in that?
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline ulm_atms

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #12 on: 10/21/2020 12:04 am »
rsdavis9 beat me to it   :P

I chose Aug so I can have a cool birthday present. ;D

Offline Endeavour_01

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #13 on: 10/21/2020 01:46 am »
I voted May 2022. Given the Musk time dilation factor and Super Heavy development just now beginning in earnest I think it will take about a year and a half before Starship successfully reaches orbit.

Still insanely fast though.
I cheer for both NASA and commercial space. For SLS, Orion, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, Starship/SH, Starliner, Cygnus and all the rest!
I was blessed to see the launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-99. The launch was beyond amazing. My 8-year old mind was blown. I remember the noise and seeing the exhaust pour out of the shuttle as it lifted off. I remember staring and watching it soar while it was visible in the clear blue sky. It was one of the greatest moments of my life and I will never forget it.

Offline jongoff

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #14 on: 10/22/2020 05:45 am »
I voted May 2022 or later. Last time I voted May 2021 or later (because I think it will eventually fly, but that was the latest option other than it won't fly). There's just so much work between here and building and debugging SuperHeavy that I would be pretty surprised if it happened in 2021. May 2022 might just be pessimistic enough that he'll prove me wrong this time. FWIW, if you had asked me back when he first announced ITS when it would've made orbit, I probably would've said 2021-2023. And everyone would've poo-pooed me for betting against SpaceX.

~Jon

Offline envy887

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #15 on: 10/22/2020 12:59 pm »
I voted May 2022 or later. Last time I voted May 2021 or later (because I think it will eventually fly, but that was the latest option other than it won't fly). There's just so much work between here and building and debugging SuperHeavy that I would be pretty surprised if it happened in 2021. May 2022 might just be pessimistic enough that he'll prove me wrong this time. FWIW, if you had asked me back when he first announced ITS when it would've made orbit, I probably would've said 2021-2023. And everyone would've poo-pooed me for betting against SpaceX.

~Jon

Well, that isn't exactly what you said before the ITS announcement. What about the 2016 presentation changed your mind?

I'm not trying to be anti-SpaceX, but I voted never. Not because I think SpaceX is going to fail as a company, or that they'll abandon their Mars ambitions. I'm just not convinced that the bigger-than-Saturn-V BFR concept makes any technical or economic sense, and I think SpaceX will come around to that conclusion before the sink crazy amounts of money into something that I think would be a dead-end. I think that instead they'll focus on higher flight-rate compatible medium vehicles, depots, and other technologies that I think make more sense. I also think Blue Origin and ULA will end up forcing them to focus more on competing for the earth-to-orbit market than many other SpaceX fans think.

~Jon

That poll ended in March 2016, and back then 85% of the voters thought that it would take SpaceX until at least 2021 to reach orbit with BFR. The median vote was 2023, so the "2021-2023" range would have been somewhat more optimistic than the majority opinion.
« Last Edit: 10/22/2020 01:15 pm by envy887 »

Offline Negan

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #16 on: 10/22/2020 02:50 pm »
I voted October 2021 because I want it to beat SLS to orbit. I think the only real issues to not making 2021 are when will they get launch approval and whether the orbital launch mount will work without a flame diverter.

Offline rsdavis9

I voted October 2021 because I want it to beat SLS to orbit. I think the only real issues to not making 2021 are when will they get launch approval and whether the orbital launch mount will work without a flame diverter.

Well it only needs to work once for them to get to orbit.  :)
With ELV best efficiency was the paradigm. The new paradigm is reusable, good enough, and commonality of design.
Same engines. Design once. Same vehicle. Design once. Reusable. Build once.

Offline Negan

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Re: When will the first Starship reach orbit? (2021/2022)
« Reply #18 on: 10/22/2020 03:24 pm »
I voted October 2021 because I want it to beat SLS to orbit. I think the only real issues to not making 2021 are when will they get launch approval and whether the orbital launch mount will work without a flame diverter.

Well it only needs to work once for them to get to orbit.  :)


I don't think they'll skip the SH static fire.

Offline rsdavis9

I voted October 2021 because I want it to beat SLS to orbit. I think the only real issues to not making 2021 are when will they get launch approval and whether the orbital launch mount will work without a flame diverter.

Well it only needs to work once for them to get to orbit.  :)

I don't think they'll skip the SH static fire.

Static fire only 1 or 2 seconds.
« Last Edit: 10/22/2020 04:05 pm by rsdavis9 »
With ELV best efficiency was the paradigm. The new paradigm is reusable, good enough, and commonality of design.
Same engines. Design once. Same vehicle. Design once. Reusable. Build once.

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