Author Topic: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2030  (Read 482191 times)

Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #100 on: 02/26/2014 08:04 pm »
The cost to SpaceX is roughly the same for each of these options, possibly  in the order of $400M.

NASA isn't providing any development funds for cargo - they already did that with the COTS program.

Unless there is some deficit that NASA currently sees that needs to be addressed with the current cargo providers, I'm sure they would quite happy if they continued to use the current Orbital Sciences and SpaceX cargo transportation systems.  Between the two of them they provide everything that the station needs, and if they need something else they can create a separate contract to handle that.

And I'll state again that from my perspective if we're not LOWERING the overall cost to support the ISS, then we don't yet know enough to expand humanity out into space.  And isn't that really the goal we all want?

Coastal, while I agree with your premise that many of "us" want that goal of lowering overall cost for space access, and substantially increasing the pace at which humanity expands into space, I can't quite follow your logic to your conclusion.

I think it is a mistake to conflate our interests with the interests of NASA and the Congress of the United States.  And likewise, a mistake to conflate our interests and the interests of any particular low-cost provider of LEO-to-ISS space transport services.

It is not at all clear to me that "our" interests of lowering costs of space access will result in a lowering of price per unit mass for NASA/governmental access to the ISS, under some particular set of "rules of the game," for accessing the international multi-gabillion dollar "family jewels" of a space station, on the 2017-2024 CRS-2 contract.

The prices that are quoted to NASA for such a service contract (by any would-be service provider) are very likely to be impacted to a greater extent by the competitive offerings of the various US competitors who have something to offer, in that particular time frame. (I'm assuming here that no additional NASA $$$ for development expenses are forthcoming via CRS-2.)

To the extent only one of those competitors has a particular cost advantage in the launch service technology available in that time frame, there is no compelling reason for that provider to offer its services particularly near their costs, rather than nearer their expectation of their competitor's quoted price.
« Last Edit: 02/26/2014 08:08 pm by Llian Rhydderch »
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
"You would actually save yourself time and effort if you were to use evidence and logic to make your points instead of wrapping yourself in the royal mantle of authority.  The approach only works on sheep, not inquisitive, intelligent people."

Offline yg1968

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« Last Edit: 03/28/2014 03:07 am by yg1968 »

Offline AnalogMan

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #102 on: 04/10/2014 11:21 am »
NASA is holding an Industry Day meeting later today to discuss CRS2 with interested firms.  The following presentation will be used:

http://prod.nais.nasa.gov/eps/eps_data/160022-OTHER-001-001.ppt

I've attached a pdf version for those unable to read PowerPoint files.

There's little new that wasn't covered in the RFI document (linked in the opening post).  Some requests for ideas on ways to shape the contract, and a tentative schedule included.

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #103 on: 04/10/2014 01:01 pm »
Interesting that the contract is awarded in Feb 2015.

NASA would really be taking a risk (again) to award a contract to a vendor whose cargo ship hasn't flown yet.

Is there a Launch-On-Need clause in the current contract ?

Offline yg1968

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #104 on: 04/10/2014 03:00 pm »
Slide 34 is interesting. It states the following:

Quote from: presentation
NASA prefers cargo vehicles to berth since some cargo items are larger than what can be accommodated through the docking adapter, for instance an M03 bag. If docking is proposed, the providers should consider methods of transferring cargo through the docking adapter.
« Last Edit: 04/10/2014 03:00 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #105 on: 04/10/2014 03:05 pm »
Interesting that the contract is awarded in Feb 2015.

NASA would really be taking a risk (again) to award a contract to a vendor whose cargo ship hasn't flown yet.

I agree that the award date is interesting. The FY2015 NASA Budget says that NASA is looking to extend CCiCap into FY2015. It could be that the Administration's intention is to extend CCiCap to February 2015 (by exercising some of the optional milestones). There would be some logic to award CCtCap and CRS2 at the same time in February 2015.
« Last Edit: 04/15/2014 09:34 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #106 on: 04/15/2014 09:33 pm »
Interested parties list has been posted:

Quote from: Interested parties list
Aerojet Rocketdyne
Aerospace
Arrow
Astrium
ATDL
ATK
Barrios
Blue Origin
Boeing
Draper Lab
Kistler SS
L-3 Cincinnati
Lockheed Martin
Orbital
Paragon Space Development Corporation
SAS
SNC
SpaceX
Teledyne Brown
United Launch Alliance
UTAS

http://procurement.jsc.nasa.gov/crs2/
« Last Edit: 04/15/2014 09:36 pm by yg1968 »

Offline chalz

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #107 on: 04/19/2014 03:22 am »
Slide 34 is interesting. It states the following:

Quote from: presentation
NASA prefers cargo vehicles to berth since some cargo items are larger than what can be accommodated through the docking adapter, for instance an M03 bag. If docking is proposed, the providers should consider methods of transferring cargo through the docking adapter.

Cue hollywood movie about plucky removal men saving the world by trying to get stuff through a docking hatch.

Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #108 on: 04/28/2014 06:22 pm »
Interested parties list has been posted:

Quote from: Interested parties list
Aerojet Rocketdyne
Aerospace
Arrow
Astrium
ATDL
ATK
Barrios
Blue Origin
Boeing
Draper Lab
Kistler SS
L-3 Cincinnati
Lockheed Martin
Orbital
Paragon Space Development Corporation
SAS
SNC
SpaceX
Teledyne Brown
United Launch Alliance
UTAS

http://procurement.jsc.nasa.gov/crs2/

NASA procurement has just today posted the "Industry Day Questions and Answers" to the same web site.
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
"You would actually save yourself time and effort if you were to use evidence and logic to make your points instead of wrapping yourself in the royal mantle of authority.  The approach only works on sheep, not inquisitive, intelligent people."

Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #109 on: 04/28/2014 06:33 pm »
There has been some concern from some of the interested parties;
but NASA sez:  "The CRS2 procurement is not targeted to incumbents."

Quote
6. Q:
What schedule extension is possible? The proposed schedule is such that only
incumbents can properly respond. Answering all the requirements and putting together
a response for a 9 year contract of a billion dollars or more takes more time. Is this
targeted to incumbents?
  A:
The schedule for the procurement is in work and will be maintained and updated
as required on the CRS2 website. The final schedule is being developed,
taking into account feedback received from industry during industry day.
NASA is conducting a full and open competition
and is seeking industry input to have the maximum participation
possible. The CRS2 procurement is not targeted to incumbents.
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
"You would actually save yourself time and effort if you were to use evidence and logic to make your points instead of wrapping yourself in the royal mantle of authority.  The approach only works on sheep, not inquisitive, intelligent people."

Offline yg1968

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #110 on: 04/28/2014 08:18 pm »
The following were questions that I asked.

Quote
8. Q: Has consideration been given to awarding CRS2 at the same time as Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap)?

A: Yes, NASA has considered the schedules of both procurements and is actively working to ensure that the schedules for these two procurements are coordinated to allow the maximum participation from industry on both competitions. The schedule for the CRS2 procurement is in work and will be maintained and updated as required on the CRS2 website.

I am not sure what that means. Does that mean that they will delay CCtCap until February 2015?

Quote
13. Q: Has consideration been given in using the same companies for commercial crew and cargo?

A: The CRS2 competition will be a full and open competition and is independent of the commercial crew competition

I knew the answer to that question but I was hoping that they would provide the rational behind the decision to separate cargo and crew contracts.

Quote
20. Q: Will a company proposing a docking cargo system be disadvantaged compared to one that proposes a berthing cargo system? How much cargo going up would be limited for docking vs berthing?

A: As stated in the Request for Information (RFI), there is a preference for berthing due to the dimensional limitations of the International Docking Adapter (IDA). There are ISS cargo items that must be transferred through an ISS berthing port and, as such, vehicles using the ISS berthing ports will be an integral part of the CRS2 resupply strategy. However, both docking and berthing are acceptable approaches. The CRS2 RFP will define the cargo that is limited to transfer through a berthing port.

I asked the first part of the question but not the second part.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2014 08:42 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #111 on: 04/28/2014 08:40 pm »
Some of the more interesting questions.

Quote
16. Q: Is demonstration of ISS integration required before a proposer can be considered for award? What is needed for certification of new entrants?

A: No, demonstration of ISS integration is not required before award. An initial ISS integration certification must be completed before any initial flight to ISS and the CRS2 RFP will define the requirements to be met for any potential offeror selected for award. An initial flight to ISS may allow limitations on types of cargo and mass carried and may entail the demonstration and/or verification of capabilities prior to approaching the ISS.

Quote
22. Q: Is there a limitation on location of launch sites? United States (U.S.) only?

A: There is no statutory limitation on location of launch sites. However, payload processing facilities required must be available in close proximity to any launch site. Additional costs to NASA for processing payloads at various launch sites will be taken into account in the evaluation process. The CRS2 RFP will define the payload processing needs and evaluation approach.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2014 08:42 pm by yg1968 »

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #112 on: 04/28/2014 10:28 pm »
Some of the more interesting questions.

Quote
16. Q: Is demonstration of ISS integration required before a proposer can be considered for award? What is needed for certification of new entrants?

A: No, demonstration of ISS integration is not required before award. An initial ISS integration certification must be completed before any initial flight to ISS and the CRS2 RFP will define the requirements to be met for any potential offeror selected for award. An initial flight to ISS may allow limitations on types of cargo and mass carried and may entail the demonstration and/or verification of capabilities prior to approaching the ISS.

Blue Origin is bidding, so that could be their test flight.

Quote
Quote
22. Q: Is there a limitation on location of launch sites? United States (U.S.) only?

A: There is no statutory limitation on location of launch sites. However, payload processing facilities required must be available in close proximity to any launch site. Additional costs to NASA for processing payloads at various launch sites will be taken into account in the evaluation process. The CRS2 RFP will define the payload processing needs and evaluation approach.

Who has a launch site outside the USA?
Is one of the bidders planning on using a Japanese or European launch vehicle?

Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #113 on: 04/28/2014 10:53 pm »
NASA has provided the rationale for the larger per-launch upmass requirements for CRS2 relative to CRS1.  Since this could no doubt be a constraint on some potential CRS2 vehicles, this will no doubt be discussed later on this thread later on.

Quote
12.
Q:
For CRS2, why has NASA decided to create higher total upmass cargo delivery requirements, per launch, versus the original contracted delivery capabilities of the two incumbent launch service providers for CRS1? Seems like this could be viewed as limiting the possible launch vehicle systems to compete for CRS2.

A:
There have been three major changes in upmass needs since CRS1 was awarded. First, t he upmass requirements have increased for research and supporting a fourth crew member . Se cond, some of the upmass requirements provided as part of the contribution by our international partner vehicles have been met . N o additional vehicles are currently scheduled from these international partners . Third, the stockpile of supplies that were put on orbit before Shuttle retirement ha ve been consumed and the ISS program now has to fly all the supplies needed in a timely fashion. Therefore, in comparison to the CRS1 requirements, a higher total upmass delivery is required by the ISS program for the CRS2 procurement . The higher upmass per launch is necessary to insure that the additional required cargo can be brought to orbit on about the same number of cargo flights per year as the CRS1 contract requires. Each docking/berthing operation is a bi g impact to crew time and therefore research on ISS. Today, with crew flights and cargo flights necessary for both U . S . and Russian segment operations , an average of 14 flights come to the ISS each year. More than this will be a major impact to operations. The refore the desire to transport the identified upmass on no more than 5 cargo flights per year. NASA is conduct ing a full and open competition and is seeking 4 inputs from industry to determine the final requirements to enable the best value for the governme nt in meet ing the ISS resupply needs.
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
"You would actually save yourself time and effort if you were to use evidence and logic to make your points instead of wrapping yourself in the royal mantle of authority.  The approach only works on sheep, not inquisitive, intelligent people."

Offline deltaV

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #114 on: 04/29/2014 12:16 am »
That RFI requests up to 16.8 tonnes of pressurized upmass yearly with a volume of up to 70 m^3. The maximum allowed number of flights is 5 yearly, so this works out to 3.4 tonnes and 14 m^3 per flight.

A dragon has only 11 m^3 of pressurized volume (http://www.spacex.com/dragon), so a larger dragon is presumably required. I have no idea whether a F9 1.1 would be sufficient to haul an enlarged dragon to ISS.

Cygnus has plenty of available volume (27 m^3) but has a mass capacity of only 2.7 tonnes (http://www.orbital.com/AdvancedSystems/Publications/Cygnus_factsheet.pdf), so it appears to need upgrading as well. I suspect that Antares would have trouble with the mass requirement, so Orbital may need to use e.g. Stratolaunch instead.

DreamChaser has enough volume (16 m^3) (http://www.astronautix.com/craft/drehaser.htm). Presumably Atlas could launch it full of cargo, possibly with a couple of extra solids.

I have no idea whether CST-100 would be big enough.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2014 12:28 am by deltaV »

Offline Lars_J

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #115 on: 04/29/2014 12:26 am »
I suspect that Antares would have trouble with the mass requirement, so Orbital may need to use e.g. Stratolaunch instead.

But Stratolaunch isn't even close to being ready anytime soon, right? Or have I missed something? It seems unlikely that there is time to introduce a new LV for use with CRS2. Antares, F9, Altas V or Delta IV seem like the only launch vehicle options that are realistic.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2014 12:27 am by Lars_J »

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #116 on: 04/29/2014 12:28 am »
That RFI requests up to 16.8 tonnes of pressurized upmass yearly with a volume of up to 70 m^3. The maximum allowed number of flights is 5 yearly, so this works out to 3.4 tonnes and 14 m^3 per flight. A dragon has only 11 m^3 of pressurized volume (http://www.spacex.com/dragon), so a larger dragon is presumably required. I have no idea whether a F9 1.1 would be sufficient to haul an enlarged dragon to ISS. Cygnus has plenty of available volume (27 m^3) but has a mass capacity of only 2.7 tonnes (http://www.orbital.com/AdvancedSystems/Publications/Cygnus_factsheet.pdf), so it appears to need upgrading as well. I suspect that Antares would have trouble with the mass requirement, so Orbital may need to use e.g. Stratolaunch instead.
So would be able to have something in place in time? The limitation to 5 flights could be a real bummer. I think that SpaceX with reusable F9/Dragon could meet the goals with more flights. What exactly is NASA playing at here? I am sure they will have someone in mind.

Offline deltaV

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #117 on: 04/29/2014 12:31 am »
But Stratolaunch isn't even close to being ready anytime soon, right? Or have I missed something? It seems unlikely that there is time to introduce a new LV for use with CRS2. Antares, F9, Altas V or Delta IV seem like the only launch vehicle options that are realistic.

You're right. Stratolaunch isn't expected to ready until 2018 and CRS2 starts in 2017.

Offline baldusi

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #118 on: 04/29/2014 12:43 am »
But Stratolaunch isn't even close to being ready anytime soon, right? Or have I missed something? It seems unlikely that there is time to introduce a new LV for use with CRS2. Antares, F9, Altas V or Delta IV seem like the only launch vehicle options that are realistic.

You're right. Stratolaunch isn't expected to ready until 2018 and CRS2 starts in 2017.
I don't believe the competition precludes switching LV midway, if the contractor eats the cost. Specially if it improves the performance or is held on contingency on main LV unavailability.
In fact, I don't think NASA could have more than a veto. The contract is for payload delivered and LV is a contractor design. As long as is safe enough to trust their payloads, it should be ok.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2014 12:49 am by baldusi »

Offline e of pi

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Re: ISS Commercial Resupply Services 2 (CRS2) 2017-2024
« Reply #119 on: 04/29/2014 12:44 am »
That RFI requests up to 16.8 tonnes of pressurized upmass yearly with a volume of up to 70 m^3. The maximum allowed number of flights is 5 yearly, so this works out to 3.4 tonnes and 14 m^3 per flight.

A dragon has only 11 m^3 of pressurized volume (http://www.spacex.com/dragon), so a larger dragon is presumably required. I have no idea whether a F9 1.1 would be sufficient to haul an enlarged dragon to ISS.
I'll just note that you quote "up to" 3.4 tonnes and 14 m^3. If that's the language from the original, then that would simply to me imply an upper bound, or a rough ballpark they'd like. I think you could also mix-and-match payloads between operators: put denser payloads into Dragon, and save lighter, bulkier ones for Cygnus. (Just to pick a combination of the two existing vehicles.)

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