New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan

[Lars-J]

The "billionaire slapfight" just turned officially into a boxing match.

But then, there's Elon's announcement of his Mars initiative this month as well--if the AMOS investigation does not derail it.

Either way, I want tickets.

I suspect that the SpaceX BFR/Mars announcement or reveal has been delayed for a little bit.

But the New Glenn reveal is exciting. Competition is a good thing! 

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

I wonder how ULA feels about this? This seems like a vehicle that could cover virtually all Vulcan payloads.

If the two-engine rocket can lift the payload, it beats the seven-engine rocket on cost every time.  (Assuming the same engines, as in this case).

 - Ed Kyle

But the immediate plans of reuse complicate the costing for this vehicle. Such that its per flight costs could equal or even be lower than the Vulcan. Therefore costs do not follow the more engines more cost per flight model.

[note estemates are very very rough and are to give some sense of the relative cost values]
Vulcan estimate for booster costs ~$35M
New Glen estimate for booster costs ~$70M
But with 20 flights cost of the booster is only ~$4M/flight  + refurbishment costs.

This is where BO could eat ULA's lunch. Actually also SpaceX too. The New Glen 2nd stage is a candidate for reuse itself. In use with a manned capsule the New Glen could evolve quickly into a Vulcan (0 solids) payload size vehicle (16mt to LEO) that is fully reusable. $5M per person to orbit possible with such a stack.

[Hobbes-22]

Is it possible the thing is so large because they've designed for easy reusability, with a large mass penalty as a result? Payload to LEO not 40 tons but 10-20 t, with no refurb between flights?

[Kryten]

Is it possible the thing is so large because they've designed for easy reusability, with a large mass penalty as a result? Payload to LEO not 40 tons but 10-20 t, with no refurb between flights?

In that case you'd expect it to be intended for frequent flights, but the launch site docs claim it's only meant for up to 12 launches a year.

[edkyle99]

I have tried to estimate the payload mass, and I get something like 60 tons for the two-stage version with some reasonable (I hope) guesstimates on things we do not know (structural mass, specific impulse of BE-4, etc.).

I attach the spreadsheet for support, comments welcome.

I doubt they would get 0.95 propellant ratios with the big tanks needed for this low-density propellant.  I estimated 0.90.  Also, they are using staged combustion engines, which weigh a bit more than gas generator engines for the same thrust.

 - Ed Kyle

Methane is not "low-density", it's MUCH denser than hydrogen and only slightly less dense than kerosine.

Something like 0.93 should not be a problem, and 0.9 is defieteely too low estimation.

And the mass overhead of SC engines should only be like few tonnes maximum, so the effect of that is like 0.002..0.003 when the stage weights about 1000 tonnes.

Atlas 5 PMF is 0.92.  Delta 4 PMF is 0.88.  I guessed 0.90 initially, splitting the difference, but I suppose I could see 0.91 maybe for LCH4.  LCH4/LOX bulk density is about 80% of RP/LOX, assuming no extraordinary subcooling, etc.

 - Ed Kyle

[MattMason]

New update from Jeff Bezos regarding the announcement of a new orbital rocket, New Glenn (image attached):

Our mascot is the tortoise. We paint one on our vehicles after each successful flight. Our motto is “Gradatim Ferociter” – step by step, ferociously. We believe “slow is smooth and smooth is fast.” In the long run, deliberate and methodical wins the day, and you do things quickest by never skipping steps. This step-by-step approach is a powerful enabler of boldness and a critical ingredient in achieving the audacious. We’re excited to give you a preview of our next step. One we’ve been working on for four years. Meet New Glenn:

Introducing New Glenn: Reusable, vertical-landing booster, 3.85 million pounds thrust
Building, flying, landing, and re-flying New Shepard has taught us so much about how to design for practical, operable reusability. And New Glenn incorporates all of those learnings.

Named in honor of John Glenn, the first American to orbit Earth, New Glenn is 23 feet in diameter and lifts off with 3.85 million pounds of thrust from seven BE-4 engines. Burning liquefied natural gas and liquid oxygen, these are the same BE-4 engines that will power United Launch Alliance’s new Vulcan rocket.

The 2-stage New Glenn is 270 feet tall, and its second stage is powered by a single vacuum-optimized BE-4 engine. The 3-stage New Glenn is 313 feet tall. A single vacuum-optimized BE-3 engine, burning liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen, powers its third stage. The booster and the second stage are identical in both variants.

We plan to fly New Glenn for the first time before the end of this decade from historic Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral, Florida. New Glenn is designed to launch commercial satellites and to fly humans into space. The 3-stage variant – with its high specific impulse hydrogen upper stage – is capable of flying demanding beyond-LEO missions.

Our vision is millions of people living and working in space, and New Glenn is a very important step. It won’t be the last of course. Up next on our drawing board: New Armstrong. But that’s a story for the future.

Gradatim Ferociter!

Jeff Bezos

Simple question: Where in the heck are they going to build the New Glenn? It needs something like a VAB for its size and horizontal integration would seem impossible for its mass. If they leased a VAB bay, there's a very long trip down the road to the pad.

[catdlr]

New update from Jeff Bezos regarding the announcement of a new orbital rocket, New Glenn (image attached):

Our mascot is the tortoise. We paint one on our vehicles after each successful flight. Our motto is “Gradatim Ferociter” – step by step, ferociously. We believe “slow is smooth and smooth is fast.” In the long run, deliberate and methodical wins the day, and you do things quickest by never skipping steps. This step-by-step approach is a powerful enabler of boldness and a critical ingredient in achieving the audacious. We’re excited to give you a preview of our next step. One we’ve been working on for four years. Meet New Glenn:

Introducing New Glenn: Reusable, vertical-landing booster, 3.85 million pounds thrust
Building, flying, landing, and re-flying New Shepard has taught us so much about how to design for practical, operable reusability. And New Glenn incorporates all of those learnings.

Named in honor of John Glenn, the first American to orbit Earth, New Glenn is 23 feet in diameter and lifts off with 3.85 million pounds of thrust from seven BE-4 engines. Burning liquefied natural gas and liquid oxygen, these are the same BE-4 engines that will power United Launch Alliance’s new Vulcan rocket.

The 2-stage New Glenn is 270 feet tall, and its second stage is powered by a single vacuum-optimized BE-4 engine. The 3-stage New Glenn is 313 feet tall. A single vacuum-optimized BE-3 engine, burning liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen, powers its third stage. The booster and the second stage are identical in both variants.

We plan to fly New Glenn for the first time before the end of this decade from historic Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral, Florida. New Glenn is designed to launch commercial satellites and to fly humans into space. The 3-stage variant – with its high specific impulse hydrogen upper stage – is capable of flying demanding beyond-LEO missions.

Our vision is millions of people living and working in space, and New Glenn is a very important step. It won’t be the last of course. Up next on our drawing board: New Armstrong. But that’s a story for the future.

Gradatim Ferociter!

Jeff Bezos

Simple question: Where in the heck are they going to build the New Glenn? It needs something like a VAB for its size and horizontal integration would seem impossible for its mass. If they leased a VAB bay, there's a very long trip down the road to the pad.

Here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40620.msg1554865#msg1554865

[Space Ghost 1962]

I wonder how ULA feels about this? This seems like a vehicle that could cover virtually all Vulcan payloads.

If the two-engine rocket can lift the payload, it beats the seven-engine rocket on cost every time.  (Assuming the same engines, as in this case).

 - Ed Kyle

But the immediate plans of reuse complicate the costing for this vehicle. Such that its per flight costs could equal or even be lower than the Vulcan. Therefore costs do not follow the more engines more cost per flight model.

[note estemates are very very rough and are to give some sense of the relative cost values]
Vulcan estimate for booster costs ~$35M
New Glen estimate for booster costs ~$70M
But with 20 flights cost of the booster is only ~$4M/flight  + refurbishment costs.

This is where BO could eat ULA's lunch. Actually also SpaceX too. The New Glen 2nd stage is a candidate for reuse itself. In use with a manned capsule the New Glen could evolve quickly into a Vulcan (0 solids) payload size vehicle (16mt to LEO) that is fully reusable. $5M per person to orbit possible with such a stack.

The field is getting crowded. And the blurring of the lines between them inevitably brings on ... overlap.

Also, with so much overcapacity, for SC developers, they might risk larger payloads with less complicated structure, ground assembled instead of deployed, to hasten time to on-orbit commissioning.

Another strategy for ULA might be to become a specialized service provider that is a user of some else's vehicle, with additional pad/equipment, to achieve specialized launch services. That would move them "sideways", into a niche for survival, where they can continue at what they've established w/o interference from the others.

BO has hinted at this by singularly focusing on HSF, leaving this as an opening. Which could close as well.

Another item - this announcement puts Vulcan and NGL as eyeball to eyeball rivals - they are going after the same post Atlas narrow market. Assuming BO vends OA a US for NGL as BE4 is for Vulcan, its a race between OA and ULA for boosters with ULA having a pad/VIF advantage.

America has three SHLV on the horizon, with China close behind, and Russia/India in the weeds. The likelihood of large scale reusable launch dominating more than 51% of total global launch capacity is extremely high now, so strategic NSS "competition" will depend upon its dominance at some point, which is not lost on policy makers, however craven they wish they could be.

Congratulations Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin, for committing yourselves to a grand vision for that fierce incrementalism to chew on!

[AncientU]

The "billionaire slapfight" just turned officially into a boxing match.

But then, there's Elon's announcement of his Mars initiative this month as well--if the AMOS investigation does not derail it.

Either way, I want tickets.

I love competition! 

[Hobbes-22]

Simple question: Where in the heck are they going to build the New Glenn? It needs something like a VAB for its size and horizontal integration would seem impossible for its mass. If they leased a VAB bay, there's a very long trip down the road to the pad.

The Soviets used horizontal integration for the N-1. It needed a gargantuan transporter/erector though. Never say "impossible" 

[notsorandom]

I wonder how ULA feels about this? This seems like a vehicle that could cover virtually all Vulcan payloads.

With New Glenn, Vulcan, and Falcon Heavy, the US now has three LVs in development (some closer than others) that will all compete for the crown of heaviest lifting LV in the world.

ULA and Blue have publicly talked about this before. They say they are targeting different markets. Blue, I think it was actually Bezos himself, mentioned that the government and especially the military launches require an expertise that Blue wasn't interested in acquiring and that ULA is excellent at. The New Glenn is almost twice the payload of the biggest Vulcan. It is several times the payload of what is likely to be the most common no SRB version. Dual payloads could be manifested on New Glenn but that presents limitations and compromises. With SMART reuse and distributed launch ULA can still be pretty competitive in the payload range they serve. ULA had to know what Blue's own plans for the BE-4 when they made the call to use it also. I don't think ULA would have been naïve enough to partner with and fund a competitor.

[NaN]

America has three SHLV on the horizon, with China close behind, and Russia/India in the weeds. The likelihood of large scale reusable launch dominating more than 51% of total global launch capacity is extremely high now, so strategic NSS "competition" will depend upon its dominance at some point, which is not lost on policy makers, however craven they wish they could be.

Congratulations Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin, for committing yourselves to a grand vision for that fierce incrementalism to chew on!

I agree wholeheartedly, this is a much more dramatic and interesting step than the "tortoise" was expected to take and it is great to have a second provider committing to full booster reuse for the bulk of the market. This thing should also do very well at high energy in the 3-stage configuration. Looking forward to getting more details, and seeing it become a reality.

[Nibb31]

Is it possible the thing is so large because they've designed for easy reusability, with a large mass penalty as a result? Payload to LEO not 40 tons but 10-20 t, with no refurb between flights?

In that case you'd expect it to be intended for frequent flights, but the launch site docs claim it's only meant for up to 12 launches a year.

No problem. Build four of them and make it once a week.

[Kryten]

In that case you'd expect it to be intended for frequent flights, but the launch site docs claim it's only meant for up to 12 launches a year.

No problem. Build four of them and make it once a week.

By 'it' I meant the launch site. Given the size of the complex, I doubt they'll be planning more anytime soon.

[Robotbeat]

I wonder how ULA feels about this? This seems like a vehicle that could cover virtually all Vulcan payloads.

With New Glenn, Vulcan, and Falcon Heavy, the US now has three LVs in development (some closer than others) that will all compete for the crown of heaviest lifting LV in the world.

Five.

BFR and SLS. And eventually six, as Blue Origin pursues New Armstrong. All more powerful than anything else under development anywhere else. And all but one of them with at least partial reuse.

It's getting ridiculous over here.

[Tev]

It's getting ridiculous over here.

Exactly . . .

I wonder how big cost-savings are we actually going to get. Reusable rockets don't get much cheaper with low flight rates, and that many that big rockets are going to tear current launch market to shreds . . . it's starting to feel like market bubble. Even if (!) the mega-constellations and Mars colony bootstrapping become real in the 20's.

[AncientU]

It's getting ridiculous over here.

Exactly . . .

I wonder how big cost-savings are we actually going to get. Reusable rockets don't get much cheaper with low flight rates, and that many that big rockets are going to tear current launch market to shreds . . . it's starting to feel like market bubble. Even if (!) the mega-constellations and Mars colony bootstrapping become real in the 20's.

One thing for sure, the Moon just got a lot closer.

[philw1776]

I wonder how ULA feels about this? This seems like a vehicle that could cover virtually all Vulcan payloads.

With New Glenn, Vulcan, and Falcon Heavy, the US now has three LVs in development (some closer than others) that will all compete for the crown of heaviest lifting LV in the world.

Five.

BFR and SLS. And eventually six, as Blue Origin pursues New Armstrong. All more powerful than anything else under development anywhere else. And all but one of them with at least partial reuse.

It's getting ridiculous over here.

Remember the many posts saying one big problem with Musk's FH, etc. plans was that there is no market or very limited market for payloads in that mass class?  Good times. 

[Ronsmytheiii]

ULA and Blue have publicly talked about this before. They say they are targeting different markets.

I absolutely agree with this reasoning, Vulcan and New Glenn are absolutely complementary in capability.  While ULA might possibly loose a couple payloads on the higher end to New Glenn (if Blue supports vertical integration), Vulcan is flexible enough to focus on the smaller payload.

What would be interesting, and potentially a game changer for both is if the third stage on New Glenn supports propellant transfer, then all of a sudden ULA's ACES/distributed launch model can really shine and drive new business!

[philw1776]

Robert Zubrin on FB has estimated...

"They don't provide payload capacity data, but from the information provided I would estimate that the New Glenn vehicle would have a LEO payload of about 70 metric tons, and, with the third stage, a TMI payload of about 20 metric tons."