...Musk could sell say $50 billion of stock and still retain control, then he could put that money into a *nonprofit* "Mars Settlement Foundation" or something which could (at say 3% interest rate) have $1.5B/year to pay SpaceX *as a customer* to do Mars-specific stuff. That would avoid any "stockholder money being wasted on blue-sky Mars efforts" concerns.
... bothers me is that Musk has stated in the past that SpaceX won't go public until Mars settlement occurs, so that it's not distracted from that goal...
Quote from: M.E.T. on 12/09/2025 10:26 pmQuote from: M.E.T. on 12/06/2025 03:14 pmSince we are taking the latest reports as at least somewhat legitimate as the basis for this discussion, their new private market value is supposedly $800B. It is then quite reasonable to expect them to reach $1T by mid next year. If they then IPO by end of 2026, the IPO valuation would have to be a lot higher than the pre-IPO $1T, else they could just raise the new capital in the private market instead. So IPO value say $1.5T. Maybe $2T, even. If they issue 20% new shares upon IPO that could raise many hundreds of billions.Well, looks like my guesstimate on the IPO valuation was not bad. Glad they’re reportedly only looking at raising ~$30B, which would be a dilution of only 2% based on a $1.5T valuation. I should go work for Bloomberg. Can only improve their “Elon reporting” in general.Of note, SpaceX is incorporated in Texas which has a 3% ownership requirement for shareholder lawsuits to be initiated. This will make it very hard to challenge any Mars plans in court.
Quote from: M.E.T. on 12/06/2025 03:14 pmSince we are taking the latest reports as at least somewhat legitimate as the basis for this discussion, their new private market value is supposedly $800B. It is then quite reasonable to expect them to reach $1T by mid next year. If they then IPO by end of 2026, the IPO valuation would have to be a lot higher than the pre-IPO $1T, else they could just raise the new capital in the private market instead. So IPO value say $1.5T. Maybe $2T, even. If they issue 20% new shares upon IPO that could raise many hundreds of billions.Well, looks like my guesstimate on the IPO valuation was not bad. Glad they’re reportedly only looking at raising ~$30B, which would be a dilution of only 2% based on a $1.5T valuation. I should go work for Bloomberg. Can only improve their “Elon reporting” in general.
Since we are taking the latest reports as at least somewhat legitimate as the basis for this discussion, their new private market value is supposedly $800B. It is then quite reasonable to expect them to reach $1T by mid next year. If they then IPO by end of 2026, the IPO valuation would have to be a lot higher than the pre-IPO $1T, else they could just raise the new capital in the private market instead. So IPO value say $1.5T. Maybe $2T, even. If they issue 20% new shares upon IPO that could raise many hundreds of billions.
Still, that doesn't explain why is an IPO required, given the disadvantages. Is it really just to get the (relatively small amount of) money (2%)? Or also counter-intuitively, to reduce distractions - to skip organizing founding rounds (currently a required by investors and employees), to have the status of "all of humanity can participate - just buy shares" or something else? This thread discusses mostly the negative (for Musk) sides of the IPO. What are the positive?
Some opinions contrarian to the IPO vs the Mars goal...https://twitter.com/KenKirtland17/status/1997056518148313282
Does new vision of AI-Data-Centers-in-Space automatically throw Mars dream under a bus?Not necessarily - after all, the rise of Starlink didn't throw Mars dream under a bus.
AI-Data-Centers-in-Space seems to be yet another idea that's serendipitously turned up, which could potentially over the long term likewise help in funding Mars colonization.
The up-front barriers to setting up AI-Data-Centers-in-Space are more challenging, and perhaps this might be the driver for Musk's new IPO, as he pivots toward incorporating AI-in-Space into the larger vision.
AI-in-Space may in the near term grab resources that might have otherwise been available for Mars plans.However this SpaceX Pivot-to-AI could in the longer run reinforce the march to space and towards the Moon & Mars by providing yet another 'Killer App' that compels more investment in spaceflight.
Quote from: sanman on 12/14/2025 04:34 pmDoes new vision of AI-Data-Centers-in-Space automatically throw Mars dream under a bus?Not necessarily - after all, the rise of Starlink didn't throw Mars dream under a bus.It is hard to gauge how much, if any, activity at SpaceX is focused on Mars colonization. We know they are focused on the Artemis HLS program, and we know that SpaceX is focused on reusable ships that can eject Starlink satellites.But what evidence do we have that SpaceX has a specific, and significant focus on the goal of Mars colonization?IIRC, going way back, SpaceX only planned on being the transportation provider to/from Mars, but that Musk (and others) would be funding the actual colonization.QuoteAI-Data-Centers-in-Space seems to be yet another idea that's serendipitously turned up, which could potentially over the long term likewise help in funding Mars colonization.I have opinions about the whole "data centers in space" trend (I'm not a believer), but I think because it leverages capabilities that SpaceX already has (i.e. they build and launch their own satellites), that even if it doesn't pan out it won't be a material drag on their revenue.QuoteThe up-front barriers to setting up AI-Data-Centers-in-Space are more challenging, and perhaps this might be the driver for Musk's new IPO, as he pivots toward incorporating AI-in-Space into the larger vision.Yeah, this could just be opportunistic, in that the buzz around data centers in space could boost a SpaceX IPO well above what it would be without that buzz.QuoteAI-in-Space may in the near term grab resources that might have otherwise been available for Mars plans.However this SpaceX Pivot-to-AI could in the longer run reinforce the march to space and towards the Moon & Mars by providing yet another 'Killer App' that compels more investment in spaceflight.I don't agree that "data centers in space" would subtract from a Mars colonization effort, mainly because I don't see how they compete for the same resources. Plus, again, does SpaceX have a Mars colonization effort right now?Overall, whatever increases the number of flights to space should decrease the overall cost of moving anything to space, so the whole "data centers in space" effort should be helpful in that way - regardless if it succeeds.
Making life multiplanetarySpaceX was founded under the belief that a future where humanity is out exploring the stars is fundamentally more exciting than one where we are not.
Quote from: Tywin on 12/08/2025 06:26 pm...nothing at the moment for Mars.https://x.com/lrocket/status/1740526228589986193"Mars ISRU was what I worked on for my last 5 years at SpaceX" - his renumeration package is substantial enough to create www.impulsespace.com, so hardly a "nothing".
...nothing at the moment for Mars.
If people convince themselves that Mars is but a ruse, and the entire Starship program is actually a LEO vehicle in disguise, you think they'd be convinced by a minor detail like this?There are 12 high bays in the BC Gigabay, and 24 in Florida. There is no need for any of that for a LEO or cis-lunar program, including orbital AI at full tilt. It only makes sense if you want to send many hundreds of ships per synod on a Mars surface campaign.If that doesn't give these people pause either, it's just denial.The implications pertain to BO rather than to SpaceX, so belong in the other sub-forum
Quote from: meekGee on 12/14/2025 07:00 pmIf people convince themselves that Mars is but a ruse, and the entire Starship program is actually a LEO vehicle in disguise, you think they'd be convinced by a minor detail like this?There are 12 high bays in the BC Gigabay, and 24 in Florida. There is no need for any of that for a LEO or cis-lunar program, including orbital AI at full tilt. It only makes sense if you want to send many hundreds of ships per synod on a Mars surface campaign.If that doesn't give these people pause either, it's just denial.The implications pertain to BO rather than to SpaceX, so belong in the other sub-forumAlso, I thought the fin-flaps / skydiver re-entry were innovated to allow dual landing capability for Earth or Mars.Otherwise, why do you need that if you're just trying to land on Earth? Or was that just supposed to be an elaborate ruse / camouflage / disguise to throw everyone off?
I hope this is not a total SpaceX IPO, but for Xai or Starlink. I still want the dream of getting to Mars. Either that or Musk retains over 50% control, because of all the trouble he has had with Tesla.
Quote from: bulkmail on 12/14/2025 06:38 amQuote from: Tywin on 12/08/2025 06:26 pm...nothing at the moment for Mars.https://x.com/lrocket/status/1740526228589986193"Mars ISRU was what I worked on for my last 5 years at SpaceX" - his renumeration package is substantial enough to create www.impulsespace.com, so hardly a "nothing".If people convince themselves that Mars is but a ruse, and the entire Starship program is actually a LEO vehicle in disguise, you think they'd be convinced by a minor detail like this?There are 12 high bays in the BC Gigabay, and 24 in Florida. There is no need for any of that for a LEO or cis-lunar program, including orbital AI at full tilt. It only makes sense if you want to send many hundreds of ships per synod on a Mars surface campaign.If that doesn't give these people pause either, it's just denial.The implications pertain to BO rather than to SpaceX, so belong in the other sub-forum
Don't both gigabays have 24 high bays? ...
SpaceX executives are starting the process to select Wall Street bankers to advise it on its initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter. Investment banks are scheduled to make their initial pitches this coming week in what is known as a bake-off, according to people familiar with the matter, representing the most concrete steps the rocket maker has taken toward what would be a blockbuster IPO....The U.S. IPO market is picking up momentum after several years of relative quiet, and bankers are optimistic headed into 2026 with or without the possible blockbuster listing by SpaceX.
SpaceX has told its employees the company is entering a regulatory quiet period, people familiar with the matter said, taking the rocket and satellite maker a step closer to an initial public offering slated for 2026.SpaceX told employees to refrain from commenting on, discussing or otherwise pumping up the company’s plans for a public offering, including topics such as its growth or valuation, in accordance with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the people said, describing the contents of an internal company email.
Wen IPO?
Quote from: jstrotha0975 on 12/18/2025 08:40 pmWen IPO?Current rumor is mid next year, June/July. It seems they want to do this as soon as possible.
NEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley is emerging as a leading contender for a key role in SpaceX's blockbuster initial public offering, as the bank's close ties to CEO Elon Musk give it an edge in his decision, according to three people familiar with the matter.A selection process, or "bake-off," for the IPO is still underway, with a select group of banks, including Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), and JPMorgan (JPM.N), vying for roles, four people familiar with the matter said, adding that there is no certainty Morgan Stanley will secure the coveted "lead left" underwriting position, the sources said.Musk's ties to Morgan Stanley run deep, dating back at least 15 years, leaving it widely viewed as the leading contender to run the syndicate of underwriters, three of the people said, though no banks have been selected yet and the discussions remain fluid.
