Author Topic: Fajr Safir-1B launch - TBD 2013 (?) (Read 53107 times)

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #40 on:** 02/28/2013 02:00 am »

Liss reported a NOTAM from 17 to 18 February

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=11734.375

Satori · « **Reply #41 on:** 02/28/2013 08:04 am »

Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 02/28/2013 02:00 am

Liss reported a NOTAM from 17 to 18 February

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=11734.375

Yes, but the first rumors appeared before that date.

Satori · « **Reply #42 on:** 02/28/2013 05:07 pm »

I'm a little intrigued about this news that was published on the Times of Israel about a possible launch failure.

On February 15 there was a rumor of a possible launch failure by Iran. This comes two weeks after the Iranians announced the launch of a satellite (Fajr) - with some bad translations saying that Iran would launch three satellites. Before this, there were a few announcements by Iran saying that the Fajr satellite would 'be launch soon' (for example, on February 11). On 14th and 15th the Iranian press showed some videos and photos about the Fajr satellite. On February 16, 17 on the 18th there were some NOTAMs, but again, nothing happened.

Then we have on the 27th the news from the Times of Israel about a possible launch failure around February 17th (possible related with the NOTAMs issued).

So, are we talking about two failures here? One before February 15 and another failure around February 17? Does the Times of Israel have other informations that we (still) don't have? Also, was there really a bad translation about the three satellites that were going to be launched?

This may be only a wild guess, but the facts are there to be analyzed.

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #43 on:** 03/02/2013 06:04 am »

I think there was only one launch (if that occurred). If there was a failure, you stop flying to analyse what went wrong. There were also many reports that the satellite was going to be SharifSat. I think the previous announcements of launching Fajr somehow got confused with SharifSat.

Skyrocket · « **Reply #44 on:** 03/02/2013 08:25 am »

Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 03/02/2013 06:04 am

I think there was only one launch (if that occurred). If there was a failure, you stop flying to analyse what went wrong. There were also many reports that the satellite was going to be SharifSat. I think the previous announcements of launching Fajr somehow got confused with SharifSat.

I also think, that there was only one launch.

Nevertheless, there is historical precendence, that launch vehicles returned to flight within days after a launch failure - the most extreme case was Pilot (NOTSnik), which featured 6 orbital launch failures in only 34 days.

William Graham · « **Reply #45 on:** 03/02/2013 08:33 am »

Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 03/02/2013 06:04 am

I think there was only one launch (if that occurred). If there was a failure, you stop flying to analyse what went wrong.

Not necessarily. Standing down after failures may be the general rule, but there are exceptions. For example; a little-known US rocket called Pilot II had three launch failures in the space of four days - and six over a 34-day period - back in 1958. Admittedly this fast turnaround is probably one of the reasons that the Pilot II was the least reliable carrier rocket ever built, but it shows that sometimes in the early stages of your programme you don't always do a detailed failure analysis before the next launch.

EDIT: Looks like Gunter beat me to it...right down to the same obscure example...

Phillip Clark · « **Reply #46 on:** 03/02/2013 09:12 am »

Quote from: Skyrocket on 03/02/2013 08:25 am

Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 03/02/2013 06:04 am
I think there was only one launch (if that occurred). If there was a failure, you stop flying to analyse what went wrong. There were also many reports that the satellite was going to be SharifSat. I think the previous announcements of launching Fajr somehow got confused with SharifSat.
I also think, that there was only one launch.
Nevertheless, there is historical precendence, that launch vehicles returned to flight within days after a launch failure - the most extreme case was Pilot (NOTSnik), which featured 6 orbital launch failures in only 34 days.

On the other hand, in Iran perhaps politics could have dictated a second launch without time for trouble-shooting.

jcm · « **Reply #47 on:** 03/02/2013 04:58 pm »

I am going to wait and see. I don't think we as outside observers without
access to classified data can distinguish at this time between (1) launch failure, (2) launch scrub and (3) hot air with no launch attempt at all. I think multiple launch failures in Feb. is unlikely; this is not a Project Pilot but at most more like Vanguard, where the failures came on a one-month cadence (e.g. Apr 29, May 28 and Jun 26 1958) - not that I put much weight on that comparison.

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #48 on:** 03/04/2013 06:15 am »

Quote from: jcm on 03/02/2013 04:58 pm

I am going to wait and see. I don't think we as outside observers without
access to classified data can distinguish at this time between (1) launch failure, (2) launch scrub and (3) hot air with no launch attempt at all.

Yes, its been two weeks since the supposed launch failure on 17 February, and still no photos of the launch site to confirm if there was a launch or not.

Comet · « **Reply #49 on:** 03/05/2013 08:52 am »

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/hyperbola/2013/02/iran-has-another-orbital-launc.html

Flight global decided to mark the flight as failliure.

Satori · « **Reply #50 on:** 03/05/2013 09:00 am »

Quote from: Comet on 03/05/2013 08:52 am

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/hyperbola/2013/02/iran-has-another-orbital-launc.html

Flight global decided to mark the flight as failliure.

No new evidences about the failure and uses the Israeli sources citing "western intelligence sources".

Satori · « **Reply #51 on:** 03/06/2013 08:51 am »

Iran is now saying that Fajr will be launched in the first semester of next year (I suppose is referring to the next Iranian year)... in Farsi http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13911216000525

Comet · « **Reply #52 on:** 03/06/2013 08:58 am »

Quote from: Satori on 03/06/2013 08:51 am

Iran is now saying that Fajr will be launched in the first semester of next year (I suppose is referring to the next Iranian year)... in Farsi http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13911216000525

Fajr is a very special satellite - it was about to be launched "soon" many times...

A lot of official declerations, but nothing in the sky. (BTW, it was probably Fajr that was lost in one of the two failliures of 2012).

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #53 on:** 03/07/2013 04:16 am »

Here's an English translation

"Reporter in the State Fars news agency, Brigadier General Ahmad vahidi, Minister of Defense and armed forces logistics at the end of the session the Government and reporters asked about the tasks set about in the Ministry of Defense, said great things about the new products in the country and also to the armed forces.

He is being raised about the news regarding the choice of astronaut to travel to space, said no such issue on the agenda.

The Minister of defense in response to another question about the preparation of satellite space to the Festival, said: we're doing related work, and we hope that in the first half of next year the satellite to be launched."

Satori · « **Reply #54 on:** 03/07/2013 01:17 pm »

...and now is early next (Iranian) year.

DM: Iran to Send Fajr Satellite into Orbit Early Next Year.

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #55 on:** 03/08/2013 04:24 am »

Quote from: Satori on 03/07/2013 01:17 pm

...and now is early next (Iranian) year.
DM: Iran to Send Fajr Satellite into Orbit Early Next Year.

Thanks Satori. For those don't know it already, the Iranian year starts on 21 March 2013. Quoting the article

"Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi announced Wednesday that the country's home-made telecommunication satellite, Fajr, will be put into orbit in the first half of the next Iranian year (starting on March 21)."

Thus Fajr could be launched within the next six months.

Comet · « **Reply #56 on:** 03/19/2013 02:27 pm »

Well, I got a satellite picture of Semnan launch platform, that was taken on February 2013, by a commercial satellite.

To my regret, I can not post the picture yet, nor reveal the satellite that took it.

What I CAN say, is that the unmistakable black/grey scorch marks (evidence of a launch) are there.

Satori · « **Reply #57 on:** 03/19/2013 02:39 pm »

Thank you for the information!

Quote from: Comet on 03/19/2013 02:27 pm

Well, I got a satellite picture of Semnan launch platform, that was taken on February 2013, by a commercial satellite.

To my regret, I can not post the picture yet, nor reveal the satellite that took it.

What I CAN say, us that the unmistakable black/grey scorch marks (evidence of a launch) are there.

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #58 on:** 03/20/2013 07:19 am »

Thanks Comet. Hopefully someone will be able to release that photo.

Comet · « **Reply #59 on:** 03/20/2013 04:03 pm »

http://www.spaceflight101.com/iran-launch-failure-february-2013.html