Poll

How many SpaceX orbital flight attempts do you anticipate in 2022?

1
0 (0%)
2
2 (2.1%)
3
1 (1%)
4
0 (0%)
5
1 (1%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
0 (0%)
11
0 (0%)
12
0 (0%)
13
0 (0%)
14
0 (0%)
15
0 (0%)
16
0 (0%)
17
0 (0%)
18
0 (0%)
19
0 (0%)
20
0 (0%)
21
0 (0%)
22
0 (0%)
23
0 (0%)
24
0 (0%)
25
0 (0%)
26
1 (1%)
27
0 (0%)
28
1 (1%)
29
2 (2.1%)
30
1 (1%)
31
0 (0%)
32
4 (4.2%)
33
0 (0%)
34
2 (2.1%)
35
7 (7.3%)
36
7 (7.3%)
37
4 (4.2%)
38
3 (3.1%)
39
4 (4.2%)
40
8 (8.3%)
41
2 (2.1%)
42
17 (17.7%)
43
1 (1%)
44
2 (2.1%)
45
5 (5.2%)
46
2 (2.1%)
47
3 (3.1%)
48
2 (2.1%)
49
0 (0%)
50
6 (6.3%)
51
0 (0%)
52
3 (3.1%)
53
1 (1%)
54
0 (0%)
55
1 (1%)
56
0 (0%)
57
1 (1%)
58
0 (0%)
59
0 (0%)
60
0 (0%)
61
1 (1%)
62
0 (0%)
63
0 (0%)
64
0 (0%)
65
0 (0%)
66
0 (0%)
67
0 (0%)
68
0 (0%)
69
1 (1%)
70
0 (0%)
More than 70!!!!
0 (0%)
0 (zero, goose egg, none, nada, zip) (on the bright side if you pick this one you probably will know you were wrong way before anyone else!!!)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 96

Voting closed: 01/20/2022 10:48 pm


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022  (Read 25682 times)

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11867
  • Likes Given: 11110
POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« on: 12/27/2021 09:42 pm »
Number of SpaceX orbital flight attempts in 2022

Yet another year of this poll. It's been fun!  Here it is... it's your chance to give us your best guess on how many orbital flight attempts SpaceX will have next year. Please read this post carefully, all the way to the bottom. The rules have been clarified (I used more colors, that's gotta help) and simplified (not really) and we have even more historical data for you to pore over than before. We had over 300 (302 is over 300) voters four years ago and there wasn't even a prize! Three years ago,  around 130ish...  two years ago, 123... maybe the lack of prize did it? Last year, 147.. Sadly, no prize this year either, fifth year in a row. But you want to vote anyway. 123? 147?Those are rookie numbers.

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2022:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55470



Prior Results

Number of SpaceX flights in 2021 poll thread (total as of this writing: 31, 0 pending )
      3 Cargo Dragons: CRS-22 (C209.1), CRS-23 (C208.2), CRS-24 (C209.2)
      3 Crew Dragons: Crew-2 (C206.2 Endeavour), Inspiration4 (C207.2 Resilience), Crew-3 (C210.1 Endurance),
      8 non Dragon/non Starlink: (Turksat 5A, Transporter 1, SXM-8, GPS III-05, Transporter 2, DART, IXPE, Turksat 5B)
      17 Starlink: 16 v1.0 (60 sats), 18 v1.0 (60 sats), 19 v1.0 (60 sats), 17 v1.0 (60 sats), 20 v1.0 (60 sats), 21 v1.0 (60 sats), 22 v1.0 (60 sats), 23 v1.0 (60 sats), 24 v1.0 (60 sats) , 25 v1.0 (60 sats) , 27 v1.0 (60 sats) , 26 v1.0 (52 sats+rideshares), 28 v1.0 (60 sats), (numbering changed in the middle)... Group 2-1 (v1.5 L1, 51 sats), Group 4-1 (53 sats), Group 4-3 (48 sats+rideshares),  Group 4-4 (52 sats) 
      0 Abort tests that actually reached orbit accidentally
      (Note that the Abort Test does not count as an orbital flight under our rules, although WP counts it as a launch)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52633.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2021:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52634.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2020 poll thread (actual total: 26 )
      2 Cargo Dragons: CRS-20 (last original Dragon) and CRS-21 (first version Cargo Dragon 22
      2 Crew Dragons: Demo-2 and Crew-1
      7 non Dragon/non Starlink: (GPS III-03, ANASIS-II, SAOCOM 1B, GPS III-04, Sentinel-6, SXM 7, NROL-108)
      14 Starlink: (Starlink 2 to Starlink 15)
      0 Abort tests that actually reached orbit accidentally
      (Note that the Abort Test does not count as an orbital flight under our rules, although WP counts it as a launch)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49675.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2020:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49707.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2019 poll thread (actual total: 13 )
      3 cargo Dragons: CRS-17, 18, and 19
      1 Crew Dragon: Spx-DM-1
      2 Falcon Heavy: (Arabsat 6A,STP-2 (US Air Force) )
      6 non Dragon: (Iridium NEXT 8 (the last one), Nusantara Satu/SpaceIL/GTO-1,Starlink v0.9,RADARSAT,AMOS-17, Starlink v1 Flt 1,JCSat-18 / Kacific 1)
      1 Starlink: (Starlink v1 Flt 2)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46973

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2019:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46972.0


Number of SpaceX flights in 2018 poll thread (actual total: 21)
      3 Dragons: CRS-14, 15, and 16
      1 Falcon Heavy: (FH Demo/Tesla Roadster)
      17 F9 non Dragon: (Zuma, GovSat-1 (SES-16), PAZ & Microsat 2a/2b, Hispasat 1F (30W-6), Iridium NEXT (Flight 5), NASA (TESS), Bangabandhu-1, Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FO, SES-12, Telstar 19 Vantage, Iridium NEXT (Flight 7), Merah Putih (Telkom 4), Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C, SAOCOM 1A, Es'hail 2, SSO-A,GPS III-01)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43942.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2018:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44407.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2017 poll thread (actual total: 16 and 2 pending as of late Dec 2017 writing)
      3 Dragons: CRS-10, 11,12 and one pending... CRS-13 (pending)
      13 non Dragon: Iridium-1 (1-10), EchoStar-23, SES-10, NROL-76, Inmarsat-5, BulgariaSat-1, Iridium-2 (11-20), Intelsat 35e, FORMOSAT-5, OTV-5 (X-37B), SES-11 / EchoStar 105, Iridium-3 (21-30) Koreasat 5A )
      1 non Dragon pending as of poll start last year: Iridium-4 (31-40)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2017:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41825.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2016 poll thread (actual total: 8,
      2 Dragons: CRS-8, and CRS 9
      6 non Dragon: Jason-3, SES-9, JCSAT-14, Thaicom 8, Eutelsat 117 West B/ABS-2A, JCSAT-16
      1 non Dragon pad anomaly: AMOS-6 )
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2016: (actual total: 5 successes of 8 tries)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2015 poll thread (actual total: 7,
        3 Dragons: CRS-5, CRS-6, and CRS-7 (failed),
        3 non Dragon: DSCOVR, ABS-3A/Eutelsat 115 West B, TurkmenAlem52E/MonacoSAT )
        PLUS ORBCOMM-2 RTF which happened after the 2016 poll started and featured the first successful first stage landing.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36377.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2014 poll thread (actual total: 6, 2 Dragons: CRS-3, and CRS-4)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013 poll thread (actual total: 3, 1 Dragon: CRS-2)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012 poll thread (actual total: 2, 2 Dragons: C2+ and CRS-1)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0



References

Totals: F9  from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2020


           Dragon from Wikipedia

Salo's US Flight Schedule
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0

gongora's manifest thread: (note, this periodically changes threads because it grows so rapidly, this is as of Dec '18):
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0
Here's an "archival copy" of the manifest as it was at the end of the year (updated when available)
  -- 2017 http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1763346#msg1763346
  -- 2018 http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1891754#msg1891754
 -- 2019 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg2025943#msg2025943
 -- 2020 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg2173906#msg2173906
 -- 2021 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg2325455#msg2325455

SpaceX launch log:
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.msg1550541#msg1550541

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html


Current 2022-23 SpaceX Flights Scheduled

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- .--- ------ .---  ----------------------------  --- .-----  -----  ----
2022-01-13F9.L?SpaceX Transporter-3SSO.C-40 .
2022-01 (NET)F910xx-xSStarlink (next Florida)LEO~14kC.
2022-01-late/-5F910xx-x.CSG-2SSO2240C-40.
2022F9.SStarlink (next Vandenberg)LEO~16kV.
2022-early (NET)F9..O3B mPOWER 1-3MEO~5kC.
2022-earlyHNNNSXSUSSF-44GEO.C-39A(H4)
2022-02-02~F9N.NROL-87SSO?V-4E .
2022-02-28F9..Axiom AX-1 (crewed)LEO.C-39A.
2022-Q1F9..Intuitive Machines IM-1TLI?C-39A .
2022 S..Starship Orbital Test 1LEO.B.
2022-03/04F9..SpaceX Transporter-4SSO.C .
2022-04-midF910xx-xSCCtCap Crew-4LEO.C-39A.
2022-04F9..Nilesat-301GTO4100C-40.
2022-04F9..EnMAPSSO.C .
2022-H1H.SXSViaSat 3 Americas/ArcturusGEO~6kC-39A(H6)
2022-05F9..CRS2 SpX-25LEO.C-39A.
2022-05-mid (NET)F9R.Legion F1 (maybe rideshare)SSO.C/V.
2022HN.USSF-52GTO.C-39A(H5)
2022-06F9..SpaceX Transporter-5SSO.C/V .
2022F9..SARah 1SSO~2200C/V.
2022-Q2F9.XO3B mPOWER 4-6MEO~7kC.
2022F9..SARah 2/3SSO~3600C/V .
2022F9RSGPS III-6MEO4400C
2022-Q3F9..Galaxy 31/32GTO.C.
2022-Q3F9..Galaxy 33/34GTO.C.
2022-Q3F9R.Intelsat 40e with TEMPOGTO.C.
2022-H2F9.SAmazonas NexusGTO4500C.
2022-08-01  1400/-4HN.PsycheESC.C-39A(H7)
2022-08F9..Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter?678C.
2022-09F9..CRS2 SpX-26LEO.C-39A.
2022-09F9..SDA Tranche 0 Flight 1PLR~6kV-4E .
2022-Q3H.SXSUSSF-67..C-39A(H8)
2022-Q3F9..SES-18 / SES-19GTO.C.
2022F9R.WorldView Legion flight 2LEO.C.
2022-09 (NET)F910xx-xSCCtCap Crew-5LEO.C-39A.
2022-10F9..SpaceX Transporter-6SSO.C/V .
2022-Fall (NET)F9..Axiom AX-2 (crewed)LEO.C-39A.
2022-11-15F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
2022-Q4F9..O3B mPOWER 7-9MEO~7kC.
2022F..Inmarsat I-6 F2 (GX6B)GTO.C.
2022-Q4F9..Intuitive Machines IM-2TLI?C-39A .
2022 (NET)F9N.NROL-85LEO?V-4E .

NOTES:
(H4) USSF-44 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:1064-1  Center:1066-1  Side2: 1065-1
(H5) USSF-52 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:1070-1  Side2: 10xx-x
(H6) Viasat 3 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:1068-1  Side2: 10xx-x
(H7) Psyche - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x
(H8) USSF-67 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x
(H9) Astrobotic/VIPER- Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x
(H10) GOES U - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x
(H11) Europa Clipper - Serial Numbers:  side cores from Psyche
(H12) PPE/HALO - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x

Companies that appear to have launch contracts for unspecified payloads:
Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Bigelow


(According to gongora's manifest thread with modification, and my editorial comments, and I won't update it post 1 Jan... if I bobbled something let me know... )

(Last year's list as of the time of the poll, for reference)
 
(any transcription errors from abridging this are mine, refer to the original post here:
SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5 header )

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- .--- ------ .---  ----------------------------  --- .-----  -----  ----
2021-01-04*2027/-5F91060.4STürksat 5AGTO3500C-40.
2021-01-14 (NET)F9.SSpaceX Transporter-1SSO.C .
2021-01F9.SStarlink v1.0 L16LEO~16kC.
2021F9.SStarlink v1.0 L17LEO~16kC.
2021F9.SStarlink v1.0 L18LEO~16kC.
2021F9.SStarlink v1.0 L19LEO~16kC.
2021F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO>5400C.
2021-03-30 (NET)F91061.2SCCtCap Crew-2LEO.C-39A.
2021F9..SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2021 late springHNNN?X?USSF-44GEO.C-39A(H4)
2021-05F9..CRS2 SpX-22LEO.C.
2021-06F9..Türksat 5BGTO4500C.
2021-06F9..SpaceX Transporter-2SSO.C/V .
2021HN.USSF-52GTO.C-39A.
2021-Q3F9..O3B mPOWER 1-3MEO~5kC(130)
2021F9..SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2021-07F91062.2SGPS III-5MEO4400C
2021-07-21F9R.DARTESC~500V-4E.
2021-09F9..CRS2 SpX-23LEO.C.
2021-H2F9N.NROL-85LEO?C .
2021-09F9R.WorldView Legion flight 1LEO.V.
2021-09F910xx.xSCCtCap Crew-3LEO.C-39A.
2021-H2F9N.NROL-87SSO?V-4E .
2021-10F9..Intuitive Machines (R).?C-39A .
2021-11-20 (NET)F9R.IXPELEO337C-39A.
2021-11F9..CRS2 SpX-24LEO.C.
2021-12F9..SpaceX Transporter-3SSO.C/V .
2021-late (NET)F9R.WorldView Legion flight 2LEO.C.
2021-late (NET)F9..Axiom AX-1 (crewed)LEO.C-39A.
2021-late (NET)F9.SSpace Adventures DragonLEO.C-39A.
2021F9RSGPS III-6MEO4400C

NOTES:
(H4) USSF-44 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx.1  Center:10xx.1  Side2: 10xx.1
(H5) Psyche - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx.1  Center:10xx.1  Side2: 10xx.1
(120) Intersputnik NationSat & co-passenger NET 2020
(130) 2 flights for O3B mPOWER in 2021
(150) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post

Companies that appear to have launch contracts for unspecified payloads:
Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Bigelow



 

Poll Rules
- Poll closes same time as last year, around Jan 20.
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- Early voters don't know if certain launches happen or don't... take that into account when voting.
- No do-overs... I can't change anyone's vote without closing and reopening, and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- No late votes... I am not reopening the poll because you forgot. You can still post a rationale if you want.
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st (of either 2020 or 2021 or 2022 or 2023 (you get the idea)). T-0 time determines what year the launch was in.

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread/poll
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second (or only if SSTO)  stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit.  (this includes earth orbits and direct injection to other orbits such as solar, etc. It also, to forestall nitpicking, includes hyperbolic trajectories... what it doesn't include is any trajectory that (is intended to) return to earth without having performed at least one complete orbit of Earth (some wag last year pointed out that with rotation to get over the launch site again takes about 380 degrees for a LEO... yeah whatever. As I said last year if this actually happens, I will rule in a way to annoy the maximum number of people)
- The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough, unless the vehicle does not move at all, and survives so another attempt can be tried
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Comsats, mass simulators, interplanetary missions, etc
- Scrubs and static fires do not count.
- Suborbital tests and missions DO NOT count. (this includes the starhopper, any starship suborbitals, any superheavy suborbitals)
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count (inasmuch as they are part of some other mission, and there is a separate poll for core returns)
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Starship tests count IF they are not suborbital. SSTO if they try it, or two stage. (so none counted so far)
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- There might be a few tiny edge cases that still don't clearly bin to "launch" or "not launch" ... in that case I will, in my Imperial Magesty, make the call.

Practical Examples
- CRS-7 COUNTED.
- Amos-6 DID NOT COUNT.
- An FH launch WILL COUNT as one launch, not three, obviously.
- Grasshopper and F9R-suborbital tests DID NOT COUNT.
- Equivalent ITS/BFR/Starship/whatever suborbital tests WILL NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon Pad Abort Test (May 6, 2015) DID NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon In-Flight Abort Test DID NOT COUNT. (WP counts it as a launch, fine whatever, it wasn't orbital)
- DM1 did count
- However, a failed commercial crew launch that results in a Dragon abort WILL COUNT if the launch otherwise counts (see CRS-7 vs AMOS-6.)



Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place.  At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years. This was even true somewhat for 2014... as the 2014 poll makes clear. But collectively we did not do too bad...  On 2015 SpaceX was tracking to make something fairly close to our consensus until CRS-7 set them back... Again, in 2016, SpaceX was tracking to make pretty close to our consensus until AMOS-6 set them back... SpaceX had aggressive plans for 2017 too which they did well at. Ditto 2018, their planned launches didn't all happen but they set a new internal record.

NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.
« Last Edit: 12/29/2021 03:23 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11867
  • Likes Given: 11110
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #1 on: 12/27/2021 11:42 pm »
42

1 - It is pretty close to how many flights are in the manifest for '22, give or take.
2 - it's a cool number.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline niwax

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1427
  • Germany
    • SpaceX Booster List
  • Liked: 2044
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #2 on: 12/28/2021 12:50 am »
36 F9, 3 Starship. 39 total.
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39286
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25283
  • Likes Given: 12125
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #3 on: 12/28/2021 01:41 am »
Huh, I voted 37, and I'm on the low side of current voters.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Rebel44

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 572
  • Liked: 554
  • Likes Given: 2051
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #4 on: 12/28/2021 11:01 am »
IMO: 42
34x F9
4x FH
4x SH+SS

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5307
  • Florida
  • Liked: 5009
  • Likes Given: 1473
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #5 on: 12/28/2021 04:53 pm »
Voted 50.

- 33 F9 & FH paying customers (NOTE there is 42 such on the manifest. But this coming year will be a lot like 2021 in that many of the payloads were delayed from 6 to 9 months. So used a 80% discounting of the manifest.)
- 12 F9 Starlink (Will be affected by chip shortage and possible shift of some of the later year Starlink sats being launched on a couple of Starship flights.)
- 5 Starship (Mostly Demo but some will carry Starlink sats.)

If you put down the max 42 paying+24 F9 Starlink+12 Starship and you would have 78 launches!!!! So a value of 50 is way down. Also a 10% +- on 20 launches is +-2 but on 50 is +-5. So a 10% accurate estimate yields a range of 45 to 55. But 2021 was closer to a 20% accuracy of the initial estimates, so that range is 40 to 60. Picking a specific number has a likely chance of happening at less than 5% and could be as low as 3%.

This year it is truly going to be a WAG (wild a__ guess).

Offline DreamyPickle

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 955
  • Home
  • Liked: 921
  • Likes Given: 205
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #6 on: 12/28/2021 05:17 pm »
The correct answer is in the lead!

Offline Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6485
  • Liked: 4594
  • Likes Given: 5231
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #7 on: 12/28/2021 07:49 pm »
42

1 - It is pretty close to how many flights are in the manifest for '22, give or take.
2 - it's a cool number.

You beat me to it!
42

My count of the manifest for 2022 is exactly 42, but it only includes 2 Starlink flights and a solitary Spaceship flight
They have already hit a pace of >40 per year over ten flights.
Last year I said that someday 42 would be the answer. 2022 could be it.
And for some of us 42 is the cool number

Hey!  It’s not infinitely improbable!
« Last Edit: 12/29/2021 06:42 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11867
  • Likes Given: 11110
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #8 on: 12/29/2021 03:26 am »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Vultur

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1922
  • Liked: 762
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #9 on: 12/30/2021 01:05 am »
I voted 36, but... lots of uncertainty here. The big questions IMO are Starlink production rate and SH/Starship launch license (plus whether there are any issues which lead to a pause in F9 launches).

Offline Rebel44

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 572
  • Liked: 554
  • Likes Given: 2051
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #10 on: 12/30/2021 02:44 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11867
  • Likes Given: 11110
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #11 on: 12/30/2021 08:14 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.
The post introducing the poll is horrendously long but maybe a disclaimer that this includes BOTH Falcon and Starship ???

Unrelatedly, I see 42 with a plurality of votes.... I'm thinking that's because this is the first year that SpaceX are within striking distance of 40+ launches and we are all such geeks that we like 42.  A lot.   (See also Comga's remarks, just above)
« Last Edit: 12/30/2021 08:16 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6485
  • Liked: 4594
  • Likes Given: 5231
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #12 on: 01/02/2022 06:37 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

Agreed
Those entries will play havoc with any averaging or other analysis.
And as Lar said last year, they’re going to know they were wrong real soon.😁

To the four who voted for <6:
Were you thinking of Starship/Superheavy instead of all SpaceX orbital launches?

If you don’t want to post it publicly you could PM me.
I could even include a revised vote in the analysis. 😉
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline whitelancer64

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #13 on: 01/02/2022 06:52 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

Agreed
Those entries will play havoc with any averaging or other analysis.
And as Lar said last year, they’re going to know they were wrong real soon.😁

To the four who voted for <6:
Were you thinking of Starship/Superheavy instead of all SpaceX orbital launches?

If you don’t want to post it publicly you could PM me.
I could even include a revised vote in the analysis. 😉

They probably did it intentionally to mess with the statistics. I wouldn't have included less than 20 even as an option.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Tywin

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #14 on: 01/02/2022 07:12 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

I had the mistake of thinking it was about the Starship and that's why I voted two...

Otherwise, I would say 45 rocket launches...

Sorry Lar, for the mistake...
« Last Edit: 01/02/2022 08:22 pm by Tywin »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline mandrewa

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 628
  • Liked: 465
  • Likes Given: 8454
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #15 on: 01/02/2022 08:19 pm »
53 flights (5 Starship, 4 Falcon Heavy, and 44 Falcon 9)

I don't think SpaceX will be constrained by the number of payloads this year.  In fact, far from it, I suspect they will want to launch much more often than this.  I'm guessing 10 Falcon 9 launches from Vandenberg and four Falcon Heavy launches from Pad 39A, with each Falcon Heavy occupying the pad for an average of five weeks.  That leaves 84 weeks between Pad 39A and Pad 40 for the Falcon 9 launches.  If there is say on the eastern range an average of 17 days per Falcon 9 at a pad, that would give 34 Falcon 9 launches.

This is a slightly pessimistic forecast.  They may be able to do better.

Online eriblo

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1412
  • Sweden
  • Liked: 1704
  • Likes Given: 277
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #16 on: 01/23/2022 07:41 pm »
Just making sure to record my justification while I still remember it:

I voted 42, the same as last year and for the same obvious cultural reason ::)

Last year it felt optimistic but the 60-day average rate was actually 42 launches/year for 55 days in total in 2021 - the only problem was that they stopped launching during the summer/early fall...

This year it might be my most pessimistic SpaceX launch poll prediction. The 60 day average rate was 54/year at the time of voting (rising to 60/year if the next 3 go as planned) and they should have plenty of Starlinks to launch this year.

Offline DistantTemple

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2003
  • England
  • Liked: 1702
  • Likes Given: 2847
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #17 on: 01/23/2022 08:41 pm »
Would have said 56.... Didn't have closing date in my calendar. :-\
I always read from the "updated posts". Would help to have exiting things like this flagged on the home page... or in some way.
We can always grow new new dendrites. Reach out and make connections and your world will burst with new insights. Then repose in consciousness.

Offline Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6485
  • Liked: 4594
  • Likes Given: 5231
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #18 on: 03/02/2022 12:11 am »
Oops.  Forgot about this.  Sorry about that, Chief!

Same evaluation process as in years past.
The consensus, both arithmetic average and mean of the fitted Gaussian, was just over 40.
While the consensus formed early, this year it's as much due to rapidly diminishing interest to the general agreement.
We might as well cut it off before the first launch, or on January 1, as few waited until the last day.
With all the possible entries, and with all us HHGTTG fans choosing 42, (We're going to be lynched!") the distribution is looking less and less like a Gaussian
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 48994
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 82860
  • Likes Given: 37261
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #19 on: 06/19/2022 06:40 am »
https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1538409582900518912

Quote
With tonight’s launch of Globalstar FM15, SpaceX has flown 26 missions this year, an average of one launch every 6.5 days.

SpaceX has tied its total number of launches in 2020, and is on pace to exceed the tally of 31 Falcon 9 launches from last year by the end of July.

Tags: Falcon 9 SpaceX 
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0