Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 448229 times)

Offline MDMoery

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1160 on: 09/08/2023 04:43 am »
So I popped in to check the SpaceX launch manifest today.

What happened after 3 Sep? First time Iíve seen the entire future manifest without a single confirmed date.  SpaceX keeping their cards close to their chest for now?

I saw that too and have been wondering if Falcon 9's launch rate has finally outrun the manifest backlog, even with Starlink.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1161 on: 09/08/2023 12:39 pm »
Sometimes people get busy or on vacation and the list doesnít get update as frequently. Maybe thatís part of whatís happening here. 

Iím sure we will see 2 per week again soon. 

Less than a month to the next FH and likely SH launch too, so Iím getting my fix. 
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5 (Welp a little early on IFT-4, but still have a shot at 5)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1162 on: 09/11/2023 12:39 pm »
https://twitter.com/telesat/status/1701198286147764565

Quote
Great News!Telesat Lightspeed satellites will be launched into orbit by @SpaceX using their Falcon 9 rocket. The launches are scheduled to begin in 2026 and SpaceXís rapid launch cadence will ensure worldwide services available to Telesat customers by 2027

Sounds like pretty aggressive launch schedule. Does it mean all 14 launches in 2026/27 time frame?

(Full press release posted at: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg2522846#msg2522846)
« Last Edit: 09/11/2023 12:40 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1163 on: 09/11/2023 03:51 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1701261936430567859

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Ochinero, on the Telesat Lightspeed launch contract announced today: our use of reusability allows us to absorb vast amounts of launches. Happy to take on more constellations if they need help.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1164 on: 09/11/2023 03:59 pm »
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/telesat-buys-spacex-launches-for-lightspeed-internet-satellites.html

Quote
Telesat buys SpaceX launches for Lightspeed internet satellites
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 11 202310:51 AM EDT
thumbnail
Michael Sheetz
@IN/MICHAELJSHEETZ
@THESHEETZTWEETZ

KEY POINTS

Elon Muskís SpaceX signed a hefty deal with satellite operator Telesat.

The Lightspeed missions will fly on SpaceXís Falcon 9 rocket.

Telesat still has a 2019 agreement in place with Jeff Bezosí Blue Origin.

Later in the article, Telesat CEO says:

Quote
ďItís affordable, itís reliable Ö they can launch multiple satellites a week. Itís phenomenal,Ē

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1165 on: 09/12/2023 03:25 am »
twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1701311370879443443

Quote
SpaceX is undoubtedly the only company in the world that could promise a single customer 14 launches in less than two years and have it be believable! I'm sure the price didn't hurt, but it sounds like SpaceX's historic launch cadence is already having direct commercial payoffs.

https://twitter.com/xdnibor/status/1701350919932186876

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Any other companies needs to make 14 boosters, SpaceX needs 1

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1166 on: 09/12/2023 04:59 am »
<snip>
Quote
Great News!Telesat Lightspeed satellites will be launched into orbit by @SpaceX using their Falcon 9 rocket. The launches are scheduled to begin in 2026 and SpaceXís rapid launch cadence will ensure worldwide services available to Telesat customers by 2027

Sounds like pretty aggressive launch schedule. Does it mean all 14 launches in 2026/27 time frame?
<snip>
In order for global coverage by 2027, think the Lightspeed constellation deployment by SpaceX will be during the first three quarters of 2026 for orbit raising to be completed for the initial 156 satcoms. Maybe monthly launches from the Space coast and Vandenberg. Additional West Coast launch capacity should be available with the addition of pad SLC-6 by 2026.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1167 on: 09/13/2023 06:04 am »
Why are Starlink 6-18 and 6-19 still listed on NextSF as NET October (as of this posting)?  If current trends continue, they are NET (late) September from SLC-40.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2023 06:05 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Online AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1168 on: 09/13/2023 07:00 am »
twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1701311370879443443

Quote
SpaceX is undoubtedly the only company in the world that could promise a single customer 14 launches in less than two years and have it be believable! I'm sure the price didn't hurt, but it sounds like SpaceX's historic launch cadence is already having direct commercial payoffs.

https://twitter.com/xdnibor/status/1701350919932186876

Quote
Any other companies needs to make 14 boosters, SpaceX needs 1

In practice I imagine SpaceX spreading those 14 launches over 3-6 boosters, especially if the missions are launched from both coasts. Because of that, any booster(s) SpaceX might build as a result of this contract could even be built some time after the last launch safely reaches orbit.

Online Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1169 on: 09/22/2023 12:53 am »
I know there's been quite a lot of confusing jumps on the schedule of certain classified missions for SpaceX. This is not just for them but also ULA and such and if you remember it's also been a problem for a while as well (see USSF-44 being delayed 2 years). Not sure what's going on but it doesn't look like military payloads have had the best of luck lately trying to be on schedule.

This is in relation with the USSF-124 mission jumping back and forth on nextspaceflight from NET November to NET October 31st, etc. We'll see what happens with that mission - same with USSF-52 and friends.
« Last Edit: 09/22/2023 12:54 am by Alexphysics »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1170 on: 09/24/2023 05:20 am »
Will there be any non-Starlink October Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida, other than the mPower-C launch?
« Last Edit: 09/24/2023 06:33 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1171 on: 09/24/2023 01:14 pm »
Besides Psyche?
If you're happy and you know it,
It's your med's!

Online Josh_from_Canada

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1172 on: 09/24/2023 04:09 pm »
Will there be any non-Starlink October Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida, other than the mPower-C launch?

I'm going to expand this question to ask what are all of the non-Starlink launches scheduled to launch before the end of 2023?
Launches Seen: Atlas V OA-7, Falcon 9 Starlink 6-4, Falcon 9 CRS-28,

Online GewoonLukas_

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1173 on: 09/24/2023 04:31 pm »
Will there be any non-Starlink October Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida, other than the mPower-C launch?

I'm going to expand this question to ask what are all of the non-Starlink launches scheduled to launch before the end of 2023?

Based on the most recent available information, I believe these are all the non-Starlink launches targeted to launch before the end of this year:
- Psyche (Oct. 5)
- O3b mPOWER 5 & 6 (Oct.)

- Cargo Dragon CRS-29 (Nov. 1)
- Nova-C IM-1 (Nov. 15)
- USSF-52 (Nov. 30)
- USSF-124 (Nov.)
- Transporter-9 (Nov.)

- Cygnus NG-20 (Dec. 11)
- Nusantara Lima (Dec.)
- Ovzon-3 (Dec. / Jan.)

- Astranis Block 2
- SARah 2 & 3

There are a couple of launches, such as WorldView Legion and O3b mPOWER 7 & 8, that could theoretically still launch this year, but that I'm less certain about.
« Last Edit: 09/24/2023 04:36 pm by GewoonLukas_ »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1174 on: 09/24/2023 04:54 pm »
Will there be any non-Starlink October Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida, other than the mPower-C launch?
Besides Psyche?
Falcon Heavy launch, but your point is taken.
« Last Edit: 09/24/2023 04:55 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1175 on: 09/25/2023 04:05 pm »
The last 3 Starlink missions from SLC-40 (6-16, 6-17, 6-18) were all at 11:38pm ET?  Am I reading that correctly?  Significance?

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1176 on: 09/25/2023 05:07 pm »
The last 3 Starlink missions from SLC-40 (6-16, 6-17, 6-18) were all at 11:38pm ET?  Am I reading that correctly?  Significance?

Seems like all were coincidences (-16 was first planned almost 24 hours before at 12:03 am; -17 at 10:47 pm; -18 at 9:07 pm); also the seconds were all different (6-16: :30 6-17: :10 6-18: :20).
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1177 on: 09/25/2023 06:36 pm »
The last 3 Starlink missions from SLC-40 (6-16, 6-17, 6-18) were all at 11:38pm ET?  Am I reading that correctly?  Significance?

Seems like all were coincidences (-16 was first planned almost 24 hours before at 12:03 am; -17 at 10:47 pm; -18 at 9:07 pm); also the seconds were all different (6-16: :30 6-17: :10 6-18: :20).

Quote
CC-1138 was the number for the clone trooper commander Bacara. Cell Block 1138 allegedly was a detention block aboard the first Death Star from which Luke Skywalker and Han Solo claimed to be transferring Chewbacca as a prisoner.

Maybe?
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Offline ZachS09

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1178 on: 09/25/2023 06:37 pm »
Still wonder why the most recent Starlink launches were delayed past the first windows on their respective launch days.

All SpaceX reports is "Now targeting [insert new T0 time here]". Nothing else.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #1179 on: 09/25/2023 06:40 pm »
Still wonder why the most recent Starlink launches were delayed past the first windows on their respective launch days.

All SpaceX reports is "Now targeting [insert new T0 time here]". Nothing else.

Thunderstorm activity in summer months? So delay and increase probability of launch.
With ELV best efficiency was the paradigm. The new paradigm is reusable, good enough, and commonality of design.
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