Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 979949 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #20 on: 08/02/2017 05:27 pm »
A good place for this per the SpaceX side:
Eastern Range ready to return with two key launches after stand down - by Chris Gebhardt

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/eastern-range-return-two-key-launches-stand-down/
« Last Edit: 08/02/2017 05:28 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #21 on: 08/03/2017 04:29 pm »
My current guess for matching FCC permits to future SpaceX missions (a very inexact science):

[Payload (FCC Mission #) - Location, Landing Method]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRS-12 (CRS-12) - Florida, RTLS
Formosat 5 (1344) - California, ASDS
OTV-5 (1348) - Florida, RTLS
SES-11 (1334) - Florida, ASDS
Iridium Flight 3 (1339) - California, ASDS
Koreasat-5A (1370) - Florida, permit is for either RTLS or ASDS
CRS-13 (not filed yet)
Hispasat 30W-6 (1387) - Florida, Expendable

« Last Edit: 08/03/2017 04:32 pm by gongora »

Offline Raul

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #22 on: 08/04/2017 09:13 am »
SES-11 (1334) - Florida, ASDS
FCC M1334 should be already used for BulgariaSat-1 mission

Offline envy887

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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #24 on: 08/09/2017 06:45 pm »
Quote
Launch of @EchoStar-105/@SES_Satellites-11 C/Ku/Ka-band sat on @SpaceX Falcon 9 now scheduled for "early 4th quarter," EchoStar says.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/895353459347570688

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #25 on: 08/16/2017 04:22 pm »
Tweet from Emre Kelly:
Quote
Launch schedule updated: SpaceX #CRS13 targeted for 12/17; SpaceX #SES11 later this year, likely 9/17 or 10/17

SES and Echostar have both listed the SES-11 launch as 4Q, so probably October.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #26 on: 08/16/2017 08:33 pm »
I don't recall seeing this Reddit post linked here yet, someone went to a conference where Spaceflight Industries was speaking and got a picture of their upcoming launch schedule.  It has their currently intended dates for the Falcon 9 dedicated missions, as well as rideshares on Falcon, Soyuz, PSLV, Minotaur C, Electron, VEGA.  There are also some notes on SHERPA and SpaceIL, and whether Dream Chaser could fly on a Falcon 9.

r/SpaceX user Swinusoidal: Spaceflight Manifest Shows 7 Dedicated F9 Launches Through 2020 In The Works - 4 SSO, 3 GTO

The dedicated SpaceX flights:
2017-Q4             F9           SSO-A (575km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-Q4             F9           SSO-B (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-1 (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-2 (200x60000km ~27.5deg)
2019-H2             F9           SSO-C (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2020-H1             F9           GTO-C (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2020-H1             F9           SSO-D (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)


We had heard previously that Spaceflight Industries intended to fly at least 4 Falcon 9 missions to various orbits, so the later ones in this list may or may not be under contract yet.

We saw this list from a Spaceflight Inc. presentation back in March.  I looked at the current list of flights on their web site and tried to match up the flights.  Not too surprisingly, they don't all seem to be there.  What they currently have on their web site for SSO/GTO flights from the U.S. are:
SSO Q1-2018 (presumably SSO-A)
GTO Q4-2018 (supersync 60k apogee, they also have a foreign flight to same, so GTO-1 from the list above is missing)
SSO Q4-2018 (500-525k, could be SSO-B)
GTO Q4-2019 (35,786km apogee)

Based on the current contents of their web site, I'm thinking I'll remove the flights we have as GTO-1 and SSO-D from our manifest, move GTO-C to Q4-2019, move SSO-C to 2020?

If anyone sees another Spaceflight presentation at a conference, please share any schedule updates you find.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #27 on: 08/17/2017 04:02 pm »
SpaceX filed an FCC permit application for a launch with ASDS landing from SLC-40, NET 10/14 (these permit dates are very much NET).  The mission number (1373) doesn't match any of the previous permits they've received for flights from LC-39A, so I don't know if this is really a different payload or they used a different mission number to move a payload from LC-39A to SLC-40.

There are a couple permits granted for flights from LC-39A that I assume will move to SLC-40.  Does anyone know if they'd need to file for new permits, or amend the existing permits, and would we actually see any amendments to the existing permits?

Offline soltasto

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #28 on: 08/18/2017 12:11 pm »
SpaceX filed an FCC permit application for a launch with ASDS landing from SLC-40, NET 10/14 (these permit dates are very much NET).  The mission number (1373) doesn't match any of the previous permits they've received for flights from LC-39A, so I don't know if this is really a different payload or they used a different mission number to move a payload from LC-39A to SLC-40.

There are a couple permits granted for flights from LC-39A that I assume will move to SLC-40.  Does anyone know if they'd need to file for new permits, or amend the existing permits, and would we actually see any amendments to the existing permits?

As far as I know they can amend the permits, but it would probably have to be re-approved.

M1373 could be KoreaSat-5A as October falls into Q4.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #29 on: 08/19/2017 01:47 pm »
This thread lists the 5th Iridium Next flight as Q1 18, which makes sense to me as ~2 months from the late Nov fourth flight that Iridium has already announced.

However, the Western range schedule in the latest news article still shows an Iridium flight in December:

Article for the Static Fire (and more) by Chris Gebhardt:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/spacex-static-fire-formosat-5-falcon-9-asds-landing/

I assume the article is just quoting the placeholder previously given, in the absence of any announcement yet of the fifth flight's schedule?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #30 on: 08/19/2017 04:50 pm »
This thread lists the 5th Iridium Next flight as Q1 18, which makes sense to me as ~2 months from the late Nov fourth flight that Iridium has already announced.

However, the Western range schedule in the latest news article still shows an Iridium flight in December:

Article for the Static Fire (and more) by Chris Gebhardt:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/spacex-static-fire-formosat-5-falcon-9-asds-landing/

I assume the article is just quoting the placeholder previously given, in the absence of any announcement yet of the fifth flight's schedule?

The article says NET December, which isn't quite the same as showing an Iridium flight in December  :)  For this manifest I'm assuming they will be at least 6 weeks apart, so late November would be followed by January.

Offline dror

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #31 on: 08/22/2017 03:42 am »
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #32 on: 08/22/2017 01:02 pm »
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)

Should this be updated to 'around October 2017' or something similar perhaps even 'Next launch NET October 14, 2017', if flight permit for SES-11 from SLC-40 has been granted with that date and all earlier flight are not from that pad?

Any news on how this pad work is coming along / when it will finish? Will LC39A work start immediately after Sept 7th ish launch of X-37B or are they going to wait for fully operational status or even a launch?

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #33 on: 08/22/2017 02:35 pm »
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

Not seen anything since:
http://spacenews.com/spaceflight-to-launch-terra-bella-satellites-on-falcon-9-mission/
and
https://qz.com/962696/spaceil-the-israeli-team-competing-for-the-google-lunar-xprize-wont-make-it-to-the-starting-line/

Based on those, it appears to be a 'Spaceflight Industries' flight but not the Sun Synch Express flight and that won't be until 2018. So the chances look extremely slim unless the Xprize deadline is extended.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #34 on: 08/22/2017 03:46 pm »
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)

Should this be updated to 'around October 2017' or something similar perhaps even 'Next launch NET October 14, 2017', if flight permit for SES-11 from SLC-40 has been granted with that date and all earlier flight are not from that pad?

Any news on how this pad work is coming along / when it will finish? Will LC39A work start immediately after Sept 7th ish launch of X-37B or are they going to wait for fully operational status or even a launch?

'Around October 2017' works  :)  We really don't know for sure yet that the next east coast flight after OTV-5 will be SES-11 in October from SLC-40, but most of the info we've seen lately points in that direction (SES and Echostar statements showing SES-11 in Q4, no info yet that anything else will fly after OTV-5 and before SES-11, expectations that SLC-40 will be ready in the next month or two.)  I also don't really know what flight that 'NET October 14th' FCC permit application is for.  Maybe SES-11 won't be the next launch, or SLC-40 will hit a snag, or something else will come up that makes our assumptions invalid.

We're assuming SpaceX will have a pretty good idea about the state of SLC-40 by the time OTV-5 launches.  If they're confident it's close, and the next flight really isn't until October, then I'd expect them to start work on LC-39A.  For news about the pads just keep an eye on the launch site threads:
   Rebuilding SLC-40
   Pad 39A - Transition to SpaceX Falcon Heavy debut - Thread 3



Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

The information crandles57 posted above is really all we know, and based on that I'm not even sure Space IL will be on a SpaceX flight.
« Last Edit: 08/22/2017 06:12 pm by gongora »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #35 on: 08/23/2017 02:19 am »
The document cited below has CRS-15 as 6/6/18:

Just stumbled across the Office of Safety & Mission Assurance's long-term planning schedule for Safety & Mission Success Reviews which shows tentative launch date for GRACE-FO of 2018-03-21.  That date was current based on an ELV milestone schedule from August 2nd.  I won't be too surprised if this date doesn't hold since it's still quite a ways out, especially since then they'd have a bunch of very high profile launches currently scheduled for that month: DM-1, TESS, GRACE-FO.  TESS has a harder deadline for launch and DM-1 is vital for their crew schedules.

Link to SMSR .pdf
« Last Edit: 08/23/2017 02:20 am by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #36 on: 08/23/2017 02:57 am »
Also, there's only ONE Delta IV Canaveral launch currently scheduled between now and Solar Probe Plus on July 31, 2018--GPS III-1.

SPP is flying before GPS.

I'm guessing this means we shouldn't count on GPS III-2 launching in May  :)

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #37 on: 08/23/2017 03:02 am »
Also, there's only ONE Delta IV Canaveral launch currently scheduled between now and Solar Probe Plus on July 31, 2018--GPS III-1.

SPP is flying before GPS.

I'm guessing this means we shouldn't count on GPS III-2 launching in May  :)
Sat is ready and like its sibling just waiting on Ground segment to be ready to support which is the hold up.

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #38 on: 08/23/2017 03:41 am »
The document cited below has CRS-15 as 6/6/18:

Just stumbled across the Office of Safety & Mission Assurance's long-term planning schedule for Safety & Mission Success Reviews which shows tentative launch date for GRACE-FO of 2018-03-21.  That date was current based on an ELV milestone schedule from August 2nd.  I won't be too surprised if this date doesn't hold since it's still quite a ways out, especially since then they'd have a bunch of very high profile launches currently scheduled for that month: DM-1, TESS, GRACE-FO.  TESS has a harder deadline for launch and DM-1 is vital for their crew schedules.

Link to SMSR .pdf

You should ignore the CRS dates from those documents, because they are suuuuper fluid.  Since it was published, they have likely shifted right at least 2 months. 
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #39 on: 08/23/2017 10:02 am »
You should ignore the CRS dates from those documents, because they are suuuuper fluid.  Since it was published, they have likely shifted right at least 2 months.

Fair enough, but at the time I posted this thread had CRS-15 as NET Mar 18 so I thought it worth a mention.

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