That was not a missile launch. It is clearly a contrail from an airliner. Many similar photos have been taken over the years
Quote from: lcs on 11/09/2010 03:09 pmThat was not a missile launch. It is clearly a contrail from an airliner. Many similar photos have been taken over the yearsHmmm... Did you watch the video before coming to that conclusion?
Quote from: rdale on 11/09/2010 03:14 pmQuote from: lcs on 11/09/2010 03:09 pmThat was not a missile launch. It is clearly a contrail from an airliner. Many similar photos have been taken over the yearsHmmm... Did you watch the video before coming to that conclusion?I can't see how you could say that was an airliner.Perspective? Sure. But it was really shifting quite fast out there.
I don't think it's a contrail. It flies between the two bands of clouds, which I think are separated by a large horizontal distance and approximately at the same altitude.
“@BreakingNews: Pentagon spokesman on mystery missile: 'We've come up empty with any explanation,' but 'are not alarmed about this until we know more'”
I'm guessing it is a US Navy surface to air missile launch, or a target missile. Something small.
I have a related physics question. Do solid fuel rockets leave a more pronounced contrail than liquid fuel? If it was a rocket can you tell just by the contrail whether it was one or the other?
Tin foil hat question, but what is the burn time of standard missile? I thought the burn time of most air to ground and air to air missiles was well under 15 seconds. Do we see burnout?
That does not rule out any DOD
Quote from: kevin-rf on 11/09/2010 06:00 pmThat does not rule out any DOD DOD said it wasn't any of theirs...
Update1: Jonathan McDowell who puts together Jonathan's Space Report, a newsletter on space launches, speculates:"Launches of NASA Black Brant IX rockets from San Nicolas Island in California carrying MARTI [Missile Alternative Range Target Instrumentation] targets for the Airborne Laser testbed have been removed from public NASA schedules, but a launch seen by an LA helicopter news crew on Nov 9 (Nov 8 Pacific time) may be related to this program. The previous such launch, which was publicly acknowledged, was on Oct 21."
Read what the FAA said: 'had not approved any commercial space launches in that area' at that time”commercial space launches. That does not rule out any DOD or research non (or even orbital) missiles.Saw a interesting suggestion on it being a Talos target missile, based on the size of the plume.
Quote from: Blackstar on 11/09/2010 05:48 pmI'm guessing it is a US Navy surface to air missile launch, or a target missile. Something small.Does any one else remember the Standard SAM variant used to shoot down that disabled satellite over the Pacific a couple of years ago? The Standard is a multi-stage solid. Could this have been a test shot of the same variant? It would explain the rather implausible expressions of ignorance as ABM/ASAT systems are diplomatically awkward and the President is attempting to build bridges at the moment.
ieee has an interesting quote ( http://spectrum.ieee.org/riskfactor/aerospace/military/whose-missile-was-launched-35-miles-west-of-los-angeles ):QuoteUpdate1: Jonathan McDowell who puts together Jonathan's Space Report, a newsletter on space launches, speculates:"Launches of NASA Black Brant IX rockets from San Nicolas Island in California carrying MARTI [Missile Alternative Range Target Instrumentation] targets for the Airborne Laser testbed have been removed from public NASA schedules, but a launch seen by an LA helicopter news crew on Nov 9 (Nov 8 Pacific time) may be related to this program. The previous such launch, which was publicly acknowledged, was on Oct 21."
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHXRight place, right time.
My 2c is it's just an aircraft with an unusually pronounced contrail. It's moving way too slow in my opinion to be a missile well into the boost phase. The wind shear of the "lower" part of the plume also reminds me of typical shear at altitude, not the twisting and breaking of the plume by varying winds low to the ground. It being taken near sunset would just tend to make it more noticeable and pronounced.
Still on the fence about this one...but there is a surface missile launch tonight it appears. From NAS Point Mugu NOTAM:NAVAIR SURFACE LAUNCH MISSILE TEST IN R-2519. AIRCRAFT, MEN ANDEQUIPMENT WILL BE REQUIRED TO REMAIN CLEAR OF AREAS SOUTH OF TAXIWAYA-2 SOMETIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. MISSION ESSENTIAL FLIGHT REQUIRINGTRANSITIONS THROUGH THE RESTRICTED AREA SHALL CONTACT POINT MUGURANGE CONTROL (805-989-8280 OR 306.6) FOR DECONFLICTION. 09 NOV 22:00 2010 UNTIL10 NOV 01:00 2010. CREATED: 09 NOV 15:17 2010Related?
Quote from: ugordan on 11/09/2010 07:06 pmMy 2c is it's just an aircraft with an unusually pronounced contrail. It's moving way too slow in my opinion to be a missile well into the boost phase. The wind shear of the "lower" part of the plume also reminds me of typical shear at altitude, not the twisting and breaking of the plume by varying winds low to the ground. It being taken near sunset would just tend to make it more noticeable and pronounced.I am convinced that this is the correct explanation, and after some research, I've convinced my news media clients. They will move the story shortly.Attaboy!
Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.
Quote from: csmjr91090 on 11/09/2010 08:03 pmGood find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI. Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory...
Quote from: dninness on 11/09/2010 08:26 pmQuote from: csmjr91090 on 11/09/2010 08:03 pmGood find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI. Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory....I also do wonder what a news chopper from San Diego was doing over LA?
Aircraft contrail? What's the flight number? What's the altitude? What's the course? Whats the airspeed? Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail? Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?--- CHAS
Aircraft contrail? What's the flight number? What's the altitude? What's the course? Whats the airspeed? Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail? Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?
Quote from: csmjr91090 on 11/09/2010 08:38 pmQuote from: dninness on 11/09/2010 08:26 pmQuote from: csmjr91090 on 11/09/2010 08:03 pmGood find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI. Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory....I also do wonder what a news chopper from San Diego was doing over LA? The video was actually captured by Los Angeles Based TV news Crews (KCBS 2) during their news hours traffic reporting over Los Angeles. KCBS's sister station CBS 8 in San Diego (http://www.cbs8.com/) carried the news coverage that so many are referring to> From the CBS 8 news station : "A mysterious missile launch off the southern California coast was caught on video Monday evening by a KCBS news helicopter."
With only the news outlets as primary sources for the observation, it's hard to say what that was. This DailyTech article has a comment by an observer named "Divide Overflow" that sounds credible: http://www.dailytech.com/Mystery+Missile+Launch+Leaves+Californians+in+Shock/article20113.htmI'd like to see more statements by witnesses like him.
Aircraft are entirely made up of curved surfaces. You can get reflections from pretty much any angle.I'm sold on airplane, too.In addition to all the other reasons stated, the contrail simply looks to me more like an aircraft contrail (thickening at the edges due to vortices) than a rocket contrail.
Well...here goes Most civilian radar sites actually track transponders aboard aircraft rather than the reflection from the skin of the plane. I know a lot of you know that. My point is, just because there isnothing on the radar tapes doesn't mean there was nothing there. Now MILITARY radar is another matter. We still haven't heard from them yet.
BreakingNews.com : Update on mystery plume over Calif.: Defense official tells NBC most likely cause was an airplane, not a missile
There were off-shore earthquakes around this time in the area.Could a subsurface methyl hydrate strata have exploded in response to the earthquake and somehow focused into an upward, concentrated plume?
Could a subsurface methyl hydrate strata have exploded in response to the earthquake and somehow focused into an upward, concentrated plume?
It's always possible. But that doesn't explain the black helicopters that fly over my house every time I put my tin foil hat on.
Quote from: rdale on 11/09/2010 11:41 pmIt's always possible. But that doesn't explain the black helicopters that fly over my house every time I put my tin foil hat on.And now there are reports that a cruise ship had a fire in its engine room in the _same general area_ (give or take a thousand miles). Coincidence? I think not!
And now there are reports that a cruise ship had a fire in its engine room in the _same general area_ (give or take a thousand miles). Coincidence? I think not!
Quote from: HIPAR on 11/09/2010 08:58 pmAircraft contrail? What's the flight number? What's the altitude? What's the course? Whats the airspeed? Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail? Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?Already answered: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHXI have a buddy who, when I can get in touch with him, can probably turn the ADS-B data from FlightAware into a Google Earth KML file. Then you can just go into, adjust your "vantage point" in GE, and see a fair approximation of the visual generated from the helicopter's view.
I'm pretty sure this was westward-trending, otherwise the ruse would have been revealed as it went overhead on its way to Phoenix. It was clearly heading into the sunset.
For the record, I believe Occam's Razor principle more than my impressions. An unexplained missile of that size with no apparent incident response up to 24 hours later is simply is more incredulous than the contrail explanation.
Don't ascribe to conspiracy that which can be described to ratings ploy. (At least without multiple data points).
Quote from: MarsInMyLifetime on 11/09/2010 10:43 pmFor the record, I believe Occam's Razor principle more than my impressions. An unexplained missile of that size with no apparent incident response up to 24 hours later is simply is more incredulous than the contrail explanation. Huh? Quite the opposite, Occam's Razor principle says it is a contrail
Quote from: IXIAN on 11/09/2010 11:13 pmThere were off-shore earthquakes around this time in the area.Could a subsurface methyl hydrate strata have exploded in response to the earthquake and somehow focused into an upward, concentrated plume?That was a byproduct of the flying saucer launch.
Quote from: Antares on 11/10/2010 01:46 amDon't ascribe to conspiracy that which can be described to ratings ploy. (At least without multiple data points).Thinking this is a ratings ploy is even worse than saying it's a conspiracy... I think it's a simple misinterpretation, nothing more sinister.
Quote from: dninness on 11/09/2010 09:03 pmQuote from: HIPAR on 11/09/2010 08:58 pmAircraft contrail? What's the flight number? What's the altitude? What's the course? Whats the airspeed? Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail? Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?Already answered: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHXI have a buddy who, when I can get in touch with him, can probably turn the ADS-B data from FlightAware into a Google Earth KML file. Then you can just go into, adjust your "vantage point" in GE, and see a fair approximation of the visual generated from the helicopter's view.You can already get a kml file off that linkhttp://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX/google_earthUS Air #808, Honolulu to Phoenix, 37000 feet, 487KIAS
http://www.necn.com/11/09/10/Mysterious-missile-launched-off-Californ/landing_scitech.html?blockID=348833&feedID=4213
No, an airliner at 37000 feet doesn't appear that big. It's also going in the wrong direction, south to north.
I'm glad to see that wisdom has largely prevailed on this site (unlike the commenters on other sites...yikes). It is indeed a jet contrail. Space (orbital or suborbital) launches around sunset or twilight look quite different, and they are visible just about *anywhere* in Southern California, not confined to a small band of observers in and around Orange County. They look something like this:
If it was a missile, how come the pilots of AWE808 didn't see it?
It would be nice of CBS to put up a proper full length video so one can figure this out.
... therefore I am not!
So you're believing a camera-wielding traffic reporter over people who have seen launches?
The story will disappear in a day, and the only thing left will be a few kooks with conspiracy theories. Those kooks will post about this for years.
Yup, including NASA... http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/mystery-contrail.html
Quote from: robertross on 11/16/2010 11:48 pmYup, including NASA... http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/mystery-contrail.htmlPlease note that the site actually debunks the conspiracy theory. Isn't that the kind of thing you would prefer that NASA do?
The 'winky' was used to play on the 'The story will disappear in a day...' comment
you mean Chris is going to mod it out of existance
You mean Chris is going to mod it out of existance...