NASASpaceFlight.com Forum
General Discussion => Live Event Section - Latest Space Flight News => Topic started by: rdale on 11/09/2010 12:49 pm
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Any idea who did this? Pentagon isn't just saying "no comment" - they are saying it wasn't one of theirs...
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/11/09/national/main7036716.shtml
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I can't say anything publicly about that launch on this forum. [Nods head knowingly and exeunts stage left.]
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So did the ABL hit or miss this time?
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a Sub launching something ? what else is there about 35 miles west of L.A. ?
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Just a cursory look puts the launch location on the western edge of the W-289 area, or maybe the corner of the W-290 area. I did a quick check but couldn't come up with any NOTAMs on the area.
(admittedly, my knowledge of getting a NOTAM out of the system is low..)
You'd think that if it was a US launch of any sort, they'd NOTAM it to avoid any traffic interference issues. Would hate to have some airliner inbound from Hawaii to LAX stumble thru that area at just the wrong time.
If there is no NOTAM, then maybe it wasn't one of ours.
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NOTAMs are active for W289 W289N and W290
also
http://sua.faa.gov/sua/special.do?selected=2&sua=conus (http://sua.faa.gov/sua/special.do?selected=2&sua=conus)
checking notam's......
apparently, also active for today?
11/082 (A2836/10) - AIRSPACE W290 ACT SFC-UNL. 09 NOV 15:30 2010 UNTIL 10 NOV 03:00 2010. CREATED:
09 NOV 09:33 2010
11/081 (A2835/10) - AIRSPACE W289N ACT SFC-UNL. 09 NOV 15:30 2010 UNTIL 10 NOV 03:00 2010. CREATED:
09 NOV 09:33 2010
11/080 (A2834/10) - AIRSPACE W289 ACT SFC-UNL. 09 NOV 15:30 2010 UNTIL 10 NOV 03:00 2010. CREATED:
09 NOV 09:33 2010
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That was not a missile launch. It is clearly a contrail from an airliner. Many similar photos have been taken over the years that look almost identical.
http://contrailscience.com/a-problem-of-perspective-in-the-oc-new-years-eve-contrail/
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That was not a missile launch. It is clearly a contrail from an airliner. Many similar photos have been taken over the years
Hmmm... Did you watch the video before coming to that conclusion?
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As I think Kevin is alluding to, the most likely ID if it is a missile launch is a target missile
launched by the Missile Defense Agency from San Nicolas Island, which is exactly in the direction mentioned by the news reports. These happen on a regular basis using small sounding rockets and occasionally larger missiles. Maybe the news helicopter just happened to be over that part of the ocean when the launch occurred, and combined with the illumination of the contrail provided by the low sun angle you get something that seemed newsworthy...
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That was not a missile launch. It is clearly a contrail from an airliner. Many similar photos have been taken over the years
Hmmm... Did you watch the video before coming to that conclusion?
I can't see how you could say that was an airliner.
Perspective? Sure. But it was really shifting quite fast out there.
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BreakingNews.com. “More on mystery missile launch off Calif. coast: FAA tells NBC it 'had not approved any commercial space launches in that area' at that time”
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“@BreakingNews: Pentagon spokesman on mystery missile: 'We've come up empty with any explanation,' but 'are not alarmed about this until we know more'”
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I don't think it's a contrail. It flies between the two bands of clouds, which I think are separated by a large horizontal distance and approximately at the same altitude.
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That was not a missile launch. It is clearly a contrail from an airliner. Many similar photos have been taken over the years
Hmmm... Did you watch the video before coming to that conclusion?
I can't see how you could say that was an airliner.
Perspective? Sure. But it was really shifting quite fast out there.
I watched the video 6 or 8 times, and I often shoot pictures of high-altitude airplanes through a telescope at sunset. Nothing in the video convinced me this was a rocket and not an airliner. Nothing convinced me the other way either. On the clip, they didn't keep the video going long enough to get much confirmation either way.
Without more evidence, I wouldn't be certain that it was a rocket.
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I don't think it's a contrail. It flies between the two bands of clouds, which I think are separated by a large horizontal distance and approximately at the same altitude.
I don't think so. Both cloud bands are at lower altitude and in front of the contrail, which is at a much higher altitude and still illuminated by the sun, probably at least a hundred miles away. The trajectory is also clearly inbound. A missile would be arcing over the horizon by this time.
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aircraft.
twin.
Guessing from PHNL or GIAA?
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“@BreakingNews: Pentagon spokesman on mystery missile: 'We've come up empty with any explanation,' but 'are not alarmed about this until we know more'”
LOL, that's actually a funny statement. The next tweet may say, "If and when we do find out more, panic may be the appropriate option"
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Are there archives for yesterday's NOTAMs? These are all today.
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I'm guessing it is a US Navy surface to air missile launch, or a target missile. Something small.
Does any one else remember the Standard SAM variant used to shoot down that disabled satellite over the Pacific a couple of years ago? The Standard is a multi-stage solid. Could this have been a test shot of the same variant? It would explain the rather implausible expressions of ignorance as ABM/ASAT systems are diplomatically awkward and the President is attempting to build bridges at the moment.
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Read what the FAA said: 'had not approved any commercial space launches in that area' at that time”
commercial space launches. That does not rule out any DOD or research non (or even orbital) missiles.
Saw a interesting suggestion on it being a Talos target missile, based on the size of the plume.
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I have a related physics question. Do solid fuel rockets leave a more pronounced contrail than liquid fuel? If it was a rocket can you tell just by the contrail whether it was one or the other?
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I have a related physics question. Do solid fuel rockets leave a more pronounced contrail than liquid fuel? If it was a rocket can you tell just by the contrail whether it was one or the other?
Typically.
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Here is the 'missile launch' from Dec 31 2009, similarly attributed in the LA press at the time. Another airline contrail:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaCTP-i7tX8&feature=player_embedded
Don't encourage the kooks.
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This seems like it was a naval missile of some sort. Sub launched or otherwise? That I can't say. Also can't say how big although from the video it seem rather modest in size. Also seemed solid fuel.
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Tin foil hat question, but what is the burn time of standard missile? I thought the burn time of most air to ground and air to air missiles was well under 15 seconds. Do we see burnout?
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Tin foil hat question, but what is the burn time of standard missile? I thought the burn time of most air to ground and air to air missiles was well under 15 seconds. Do we see burnout?
It did not seem like there was a burnout. I need to double check that video.
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Tin foil hat question, but what is the burn time of standard missile? I thought the burn time of most air to ground and air to air missiles was well under 15 seconds. Do we see burnout?
I haven't seen the video (youtube is blocked and other sites seemingly have quite a bit of traffic and its bogging down) but if you see the whole launch to burnout, then assuming some standard solid properties and burn rate, you could probably derive a size of the vehicle.
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Biggest problem: no perspective in the video. Too much zoom. I'm starting to buy into lcs's theory that it's an east-flying aircraft, not a west-flying missile. In the video, we don't see boost at all.
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I can guarantee it wasn't Sea Launch!
;-)
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That does not rule out any DOD
DOD said it wasn't any of theirs...
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That does not rule out any DOD
DOD said it wasn't any of theirs...
And that does not rule them out. However, I believe this was naval in origin.
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Given the Position of Origin, and what info we know right now, it may (and I stress the word may) have been sub launched. No way to know for sure.
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A SLBM sub launch would have had a huge heat signature. The pentagon DSP would have positive confirmation of it.
Fox talking heads are now claiming a pentagon source saying it was a sub launch. But like any fox report, the source could be the guy standing outside of the building holding the world ends tomorrow sign. Also speculating accidental launch.
ieee has an interesting quote ( http://spectrum.ieee.org/riskfactor/aerospace/military/whose-missile-was-launched-35-miles-west-of-los-angeles ):
Update1: Jonathan McDowell who puts together Jonathan's Space Report, a newsletter on space launches, speculates:
"Launches of NASA Black Brant IX rockets from San Nicolas Island in California carrying MARTI [Missile Alternative Range Target Instrumentation] targets for the Airborne Laser testbed have been removed from public NASA schedules, but a launch seen by an LA helicopter news crew on Nov 9 (Nov 8 Pacific time) may be related to this program. The previous such launch, which was publicly acknowledged, was on Oct 21."
Though they also two paragraphs later also points to jet contrails. So who knows.
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My 2c is it's just an aircraft with an unusually pronounced contrail. It's moving way too slow in my opinion to be a missile well into the boost phase. The wind shear of the "lower" part of the plume also reminds me of typical shear at altitude, not the twisting and breaking of the plume by varying winds low to the ground.
It being taken near sunset would just tend to make it more noticeable and pronounced.
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Also, if it were flying toward the sun, shouldn't the later/top part of the plume be brighter than the earlier/lower part of the plume?
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Heck, it doesn't even have to fly *toward* the sun for that, near sunset the plume would be brighter near the top simply due to lower atmospheric reddening/extinction and higher sun elevation at altitude.
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Read what the FAA said: 'had not approved any commercial space launches in that area' at that time”
commercial space launches. That does not rule out any DOD or research non (or even orbital) missiles.
Saw a interesting suggestion on it being a Talos target missile, based on the size of the plume.
FAA doesn't authorize government launches, as far as I know.
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Still on the fence about this one...but there is a surface missile launch tonight it appears. From NAS Point Mugu NOTAM:
NAVAIR SURFACE LAUNCH MISSILE TEST IN R-2519. AIRCRAFT, MEN AND
EQUIPMENT WILL BE REQUIRED TO REMAIN CLEAR OF AREAS SOUTH OF TAXIWAY
A-2 SOMETIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. MISSION ESSENTIAL FLIGHT REQUIRING
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE RESTRICTED AREA SHALL CONTACT POINT MUGU
RANGE CONTROL (805-989-8280 OR 306.6) FOR DECONFLICTION. 09 NOV 22:00 2010 UNTIL
10 NOV 01:00 2010. CREATED: 09 NOV 15:17 2010
Related?
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I'm guessing it is a US Navy surface to air missile launch, or a target missile. Something small.
Does any one else remember the Standard SAM variant used to shoot down that disabled satellite over the Pacific a couple of years ago? The Standard is a multi-stage solid. Could this have been a test shot of the same variant? It would explain the rather implausible expressions of ignorance as ABM/ASAT systems are diplomatically awkward and the President is attempting to build bridges at the moment.
rim-161 SM-3
It would be nice of CBS to put up a proper full length video so one can figure this out
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ieee has an interesting quote ( http://spectrum.ieee.org/riskfactor/aerospace/military/whose-missile-was-launched-35-miles-west-of-los-angeles ):
Update1: Jonathan McDowell who puts together Jonathan's Space Report, a newsletter on space launches, speculates:
"Launches of NASA Black Brant IX rockets from San Nicolas Island in California carrying MARTI [Missile Alternative Range Target Instrumentation] targets for the Airborne Laser testbed have been removed from public NASA schedules, but a launch seen by an LA helicopter news crew on Nov 9 (Nov 8 Pacific time) may be related to this program. The previous such launch, which was publicly acknowledged, was on Oct 21."
BB launches from SNI usually appear on NASA SRPO launch schedules. According to both the WFF calendar and the SRPO Blue Book, none are currently scheduled. That said, by "none", I mean none whatsoever, so it is possible that they have just stopped listing them.
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http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX
Right place, right time.
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http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX
Right place, right time.
Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.
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My 2c is it's just an aircraft with an unusually pronounced contrail. It's moving way too slow in my opinion to be a missile well into the boost phase. The wind shear of the "lower" part of the plume also reminds me of typical shear at altitude, not the twisting and breaking of the plume by varying winds low to the ground.
It being taken near sunset would just tend to make it more noticeable and pronounced.
I am convinced that this is the correct explanation, and after some research, I've convinced my news media clients. They will move the story shortly.
Attaboy!
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Still on the fence about this one...but there is a surface missile launch tonight it appears. From NAS Point Mugu NOTAM:
NAVAIR SURFACE LAUNCH MISSILE TEST IN R-2519. AIRCRAFT, MEN AND
EQUIPMENT WILL BE REQUIRED TO REMAIN CLEAR OF AREAS SOUTH OF TAXIWAY
A-2 SOMETIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. MISSION ESSENTIAL FLIGHT REQUIRING
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE RESTRICTED AREA SHALL CONTACT POINT MUGU
RANGE CONTROL (805-989-8280 OR 306.6) FOR DECONFLICTION. 09 NOV 22:00 2010 UNTIL
10 NOV 01:00 2010. CREATED: 09 NOV 15:17 2010
Related?
Unlikely. Note the max altitude of the keep-out zone. It has been pointed out to me by a friend who may want to properly claim credit later, but I can share the observation that the max altitude for missile events is not flight level 390 (39,000 ft) but 'unlimited'.
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My 2c is it's just an aircraft with an unusually pronounced contrail. It's moving way too slow in my opinion to be a missile well into the boost phase. The wind shear of the "lower" part of the plume also reminds me of typical shear at altitude, not the twisting and breaking of the plume by varying winds low to the ground.
It being taken near sunset would just tend to make it more noticeable and pronounced.
I am convinced that this is the correct explanation, and after some research, I've convinced my news media clients. They will move the story shortly.
Attaboy!
I guess this is as possible as anything but wouldn't this be at least a somewhat "regular" occurance then?
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Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.
Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.
The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory...
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From a recent AP news report on this incident, carried on various new media outlets, the following was quoted:
Source: http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2010/11/09/pentagon-cant-explain-missile-off-california/
"FAA Spokesman Ian Gregor later released this statement:
“The FAA ran radar replays of a large area west of Los Angeles based on media reports of the location of a possible missile launch around 5pm Monday. The radar replayed did not reveal any fast moving unidentified targets in that area. The FAA also did not receive reports of any unusual sightings from pilots who were flying in the area Monday afternoon. Finally the FAA did not approve any commercial space launches around the area Monday.”
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Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.
Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.
The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory...
Very true...I also do wonder what a news chopper from San Diego was doing over LA? Not saying it can't happen, but it seems a bit unusual. The more I look at this, the more I think its nothing more than an aircraft contrail. I think this is just a perspective issue. At the reported distance, its moving too slow for a small/medium sized missile.
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Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.
Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.
The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory...
.I also do wonder what a news chopper from San Diego was doing over LA?
The video was actually captured by Los Angeles Based TV news Crews (KCBS 2) during their news hours traffic reporting over Los Angeles. KCBS's sister station CBS 8 in San Diego (http://www.cbs8.com/) carried the news coverage that so many are referring to>
From the CBS 8 news station : "A mysterious missile launch off the southern California coast was caught on video Monday evening by a KCBS news helicopter."
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Aircraft contrail? What's the flight number? What's the altitude? What's the course? Whats the airspeed? Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail? Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?
--- CHAS
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Aircraft contrail? What's the flight number? What's the altitude? What's the course? Whats the airspeed? Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail? Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?
--- CHAS
During winter here it frequently does produce thick dense contrails. Yesterday was a cold and windy day.
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Aircraft contrail? What's the flight number? What's the altitude? What's the course? Whats the airspeed? Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail? Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?
Already answered: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX
I have a buddy who, when I can get in touch with him, can probably turn the ADS-B data from FlightAware into a Google Earth KML file. Then you can just go into, adjust your "vantage point" in GE, and see a fair approximation of the visual generated from the helicopter's view.
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Good find, but it looks like it traveled a little south of the "origin" of this event. It crossed over the Southern end of Catalina Island, while this is being reported as being North of Catalina, but still South of SNI.
Well, key in this is ascertaining where the video was precisely shot from, and where the contrail of the jet would have intersected the horizon from that vantage point.
The actual path of the aircraft wouldn't have to pass over the island at all, in theory...
.I also do wonder what a news chopper from San Diego was doing over LA?
The video was actually captured by Los Angeles Based TV news Crews (KCBS 2) during their news hours traffic reporting over Los Angeles. KCBS's sister station CBS 8 in San Diego (http://www.cbs8.com/) carried the news coverage that so many are referring to>
From the CBS 8 news station : "A mysterious missile launch off the southern California coast was caught on video Monday evening by a KCBS news helicopter."
OK, that makes more sense. Thanks for clearing that up.
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With only the news outlets as primary sources for the observation, it's hard to say what that was. This DailyTech article has a comment by an observer named "Divide Overflow" that sounds credible: http://www.dailytech.com/Mystery+Missile+Launch+Leaves+Californians+in+Shock/article20113.htm
I'd like to see more statements by witnesses like him.
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With only the news outlets as primary sources for the observation, it's hard to say what that was. This DailyTech article has a comment by an observer named "Divide Overflow" that sounds credible: http://www.dailytech.com/Mystery+Missile+Launch+Leaves+Californians+in+Shock/article20113.htm
I'd like to see more statements by witnesses like him.
I don't know how he could possibly tell from Catalina this this object "came from the ocean". If it is a plane, I think he is confusing "ocean" with horizon.
If the FAA checked their radar tapes at the time this happened and didn't spot any fast moving objects, then I would doubt this would be a sub/ship based missile.
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Aircraft are entirely made up of curved surfaces. You can get reflections from pretty much any angle.
I'm sold on airplane, too.
In addition to all the other reasons stated, the contrail simply looks to me more like an aircraft contrail (thickening at the edges due to vortices) than a rocket contrail.
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Aircraft are entirely made up of curved surfaces. You can get reflections from pretty much any angle.
I'm sold on airplane, too.
In addition to all the other reasons stated, the contrail simply looks to me more like an aircraft contrail (thickening at the edges due to vortices) than a rocket contrail.
Agree, edited my post after looking at the tape yet again. With as cold and windy as it was in this area yesterday, I'm convinced even more. As was said before, this was just right time right place.
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And yet--here's a new video, with lots of good forensic hints (watch the plane crossing level at 37 seconds--while the background object is still climbing. I'd think level airliners at that distance would seem to be headed *downward" as they follow the curvature of the earth). So I'm still perplexed.
http://www.necn.com/11/09/10/Mysterious-missile-launched-off-Californ/landing_scitech.html?blockID=348833&feedID=4213
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Well...here goes ::)
Most civilian radar sites actually track transponders aboard aircraft rather than the reflection from the skin of the plane. I know a lot of you know that. My point is, just because there isnothing on the radar tapes doesn't mean there was nothing there. Now MILITARY radar is another matter. We still haven't heard from them yet.
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I just looked at that other video and I'm with "Mars". I'm puzzled. I've watched a lot of contrails and this one looks...funny. It could be some classified military vehicle because it looks to be pretty far up there. But yes...it's hard to tell from the video. But still...........
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Well...here goes ::)
Most civilian radar sites actually track transponders aboard aircraft rather than the reflection from the skin of the plane. I know a lot of you know that. My point is, just because there isnothing on the radar tapes doesn't mean there was nothing there. Now MILITARY radar is another matter. We still haven't heard from them yet.
Last time I checked missiles are still equipped with IFF...
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BreakingNews.com : Update on mystery plume over Calif.: Defense official tells NBC most likely cause was an airplane, not a missile
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BreakingNews.com : Update on mystery plume over Calif.: Defense official tells NBC most likely cause was an airplane, not a missile
This is a very plausable explanation. Given there was a low pressure nearby it is not uncommon to get lots of contrails that look a lot like missile exhaust. I live east of Vandenberg and I see lots of contrails that sometimes look like a rocket exhaust plume but I know it is not.
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For the record, I believe Occam's Razor principle more than my impressions. An unexplained missile of that size with no apparent incident response up to 24 hours later is simply is more incredulous than the contrail explanation. Also, the closing frames show the object in shadow while the lower contrail is still sunlit--our vehicle is low enough even after several minutes of watching to catch shadows of clouds further out, which I don't think would be true of a vehicle well above normal cruising altitude, moving retrograde.
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No one wants to admit that Admiral Nelson left Seaview on FS1 to get
to his condo in Hawaii. Let alone disclose there really is a USOS Seaview
and it has Flying sub capability. Atmospheric conditions revealed the
FS-1 launch. "Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea" was not just a TV series
but a true project. The Nelson Institute of Marine Research (NIMR) located in Santa Barbara, California. The Seaview and her crew's primary task is to probe the mysteries of nature and fight forces that threaten the survival of the United States and the entire world.
Hey best explaination I heard so far????
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There were off-shore earthquakes around this time in the area.
Could a subsurface methyl hydrate strata have exploded in response to the earthquake and somehow focused into an upward, concentrated plume?
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There were off-shore earthquakes around this time in the area.
Could a subsurface methyl hydrate strata have exploded in response to the earthquake and somehow focused into an upward, concentrated plume?
That was a byproduct of the flying saucer launch.
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At least we know it wasn't Elliott Carver and his stealth ship ;)
(http://fandomania.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/carver.jpg)
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Lots of photos of aircraft contrails here that look a lot like this thing.
http://uncinus.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/4/
What's the simplest explanation? A secret missile launch? Methane escaping form the ocean? A secret military aircraft? Or a commercial aircraft of the kind the flies over that area all the time?
When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras, or unicorns.
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Could a subsurface methyl hydrate strata have exploded in response to the earthquake and somehow focused into an upward, concentrated plume?
It's always possible. But that doesn't explain the black helicopters that fly over my house every time I put my tin foil hat on.
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It's always possible. But that doesn't explain the black helicopters that fly over my house every time I put my tin foil hat on.
And now there are reports that a cruise ship had a fire in its engine room in the _same general area_ (give or take a thousand miles). Coincidence? I think not!
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It's always possible. But that doesn't explain the black helicopters that fly over my house every time I put my tin foil hat on.
And now there are reports that a cruise ship had a fire in its engine room in the _same general area_ (give or take a thousand miles). Coincidence? I think not!
"... therefore I am not!" (whereupon Descartes vanishes in a puff of logic) ;)
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And now there are reports that a cruise ship had a fire in its engine room in the _same general area_ (give or take a thousand miles). Coincidence? I think not!
Clearly, it was a secret cruise missile test! ;D
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Maybe it was a southern CA rocket club testing one of their latest creations. :-) I used to know of one who made their own with solid propellant.Very capable of reaching very high altitudes.They were not an official club just some bored aerospace technicians.
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Aircraft contrail? What's the flight number? What's the altitude? What's the course? Whats the airspeed? Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail? Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?
Already answered: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX
I have a buddy who, when I can get in touch with him, can probably turn the ADS-B data from FlightAware into a Google Earth KML file. Then you can just go into, adjust your "vantage point" in GE, and see a fair approximation of the visual generated from the helicopter's view.
You can already get a kml file off that link
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX/google_earth
US Air #808, Honolulu to Phoenix, 37000 feet, 487KIAS
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I'm pretty sure this was westward-trending, otherwise the ruse would have been revealed as it went overhead on its way to Phoenix. It was clearly heading into the sunset.
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What ruse? How many west coast launches pass over Phoenix? FA shows it was moving east anyways.
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Referring to the appearance of being something else, not intentional.
BTW, a piece by James Oberg:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/aerospace/aviation/mystery-missile-wasnt-a-missile-at-all
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I'm pretty sure this was westward-trending, otherwise the ruse would have been revealed as it went overhead on its way to Phoenix. It was clearly heading into the sunset.
No, it is a east bound plane
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So you're believing a camera-wielding traffic reporter over people who have seen launches? What if shortly after the end of the tape it the object disappeared into Earth's shadow and that part of the tape didn't make the newscast since that would have made it a lot less exciting?
Why isn't it pitched over and heading rapidly toward the horizon, and getting brighter since it's moving toward solar noon?
Don't ascribe to conspiracy that which can be described to ratings ploy. (At least without multiple data points).
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For the record, I believe Occam's Razor principle more than my impressions. An unexplained missile of that size with no apparent incident response up to 24 hours later is simply is more incredulous than the contrail explanation.
Huh? Quite the opposite, Occam's Razor principle says it is a contrail
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Ever have the experience of looking at Mars craters and seeing hills instead? It's hard to interpret foreshortened imagery! So when I look at the NECN video again (the clearest of all that I've seen), I can see the wide part of the image as the westward part of the contrail, and at 37000 feet, the craft could be in Earth's shadow as it races away from the sunset, hence no "flame" and no shine off the fuselage. Very confusing. But either way, I'm won over to the contrail explanation, and in my mind's eye, I can now see it climbing overhead, not away.
And Jim, that's what I tried to say: Contrail simpler than incredulous conspiracy.
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Don't ascribe to conspiracy that which can be described to ratings ploy. (At least without multiple data points).
Thinking this is a ratings ploy is even worse than saying it's a conspiracy... I think it's a simple misinterpretation, nothing more sinister.
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For the record, I believe Occam's Razor principle more than my impressions. An unexplained missile of that size with no apparent incident response up to 24 hours later is simply is more incredulous than the contrail explanation.
Huh? Quite the opposite, Occam's Razor principle says it is a contrail
Uuum Jim, he said Oscam's razor says contrail.
Personally since Jim O did not post a link on this site to his own IEEE spectrum article, I have to conclude that the article is a plant, to cover up a secret navy launch of a Saturn V to stop the evil tin foil hat factory by our new alien overlords.
btw. In all seriousness, NORAD would have a DPS heat signature from that thing if it was not a jumbo and a real missile launch. The fact that they don't and are not concerned says for or it being a contrail than anything else.
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The television cameraman was interviewed today on local stations and he said he did not know what the object was. He also mentioned living in the LA area for many years and seeing missile launches from VAFB. He was very proper in not attributing the video to any particular event he could identify.
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CNN had yet another view of the event:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/09/california.contrails/index.html?hpt=C2
This was shot from a high enough altitude that you can see to the start of the trail. It is clearly very distant and has been stretched for a long time by winds in a way that is more consistent with 30-minute-old contrails than 2-minute-old rocket trails. That is the best evidence of the "beyond the curvature" origin of the trail, now clearly a contrail coming directly eastward, and thus upwards.
I'm citing these videos because they help form comprehensive evidence of the contrail explanation. I'm also done searching... I'm satisfied with the explanation and the identification of the flight that caused this phenomenon.
The more interesting discussion should be about why people jump so quickly to less likely explanations. Heck, I grew up watching both jet contrails and sounding rocket trails rise above the Organ Mountains near White Sands. When you have enough evidence at hand, you can tease out the cues quickly. With only the fragmentary news clips at first, we had both the newscaster's inferences and the cognitive pattern of what a rocket launch should look like creating a somewhat persistent impression (at least I did).
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KCBS was irresponsible in inflaming these exotic interpretations by not alluding to the previous contrail sighting on 31 Dec 2009. Especially given that the now famous link to contrailscience.com was one of the first comments on their webpage story. Ratings grab, pure and simple. Looking for a Drudge link.
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"KCBS was irresponsible"
DUH! Tell me something I *don't* know!
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Not a Missile this was an aircraft. Rather deceptive in appearance though, so I don't necessarily blame the media on this one. But it was moving too slow to be a missile. Whats more is that upon inspection of some of the other views, one can make out the distinct twin trail pattern at the very front of the trail that is unique to twin engine jumbos. Plane not a missile.
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There were off-shore earthquakes around this time in the area.
Could a subsurface methyl hydrate strata have exploded in response to the earthquake and somehow focused into an upward, concentrated plume?
That was a byproduct of the flying saucer launch.
Lmao :D
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Don't ascribe to conspiracy that which can be described to ratings ploy. (At least without multiple data points).
Thinking this is a ratings ploy is even worse than saying it's a conspiracy... I think it's a simple misinterpretation, nothing more sinister.
Have you seen what passes for a meteorologist in Southern California? ;) Let's just say they won't be doing the weather from the Jets locker room.
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Aircraft contrail? What's the flight number? What's the altitude? What's the course? Whats the airspeed? Does the meteorological data at the time of sighting match the characteristics of the contrail? Were other aircraft over the west coast producing dense looking contrails?
Already answered: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX
I have a buddy who, when I can get in touch with him, can probably turn the ADS-B data from FlightAware into a Google Earth KML file. Then you can just go into, adjust your "vantage point" in GE, and see a fair approximation of the visual generated from the helicopter's view.
You can already get a kml file off that link
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/USA808/history/20101108/1955Z/PHNL/KPHX/google_earth
US Air #808, Honolulu to Phoenix, 37000 feet, 487KIAS
At this other video of the missile (which I think it's not) you can see at plane fly by at 0:35 Could this be the 808?
http://www.necn.com/11/09/10/Mysterious-missile-launched-off-Californ/landing_scitech.html?blockID=348833&feedID=4213
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After thinking about it the one argument against a missile launch is there were no observed Noctolucent clouds later in the evening. Given the time of the incident, these should have been observed. These types of clouds are very distinctive and make for a spectacular show long after dark. Since there were none of these clouds I would tend the beleive the airliner contrail theory. Given there were cirrus clouds observed ,the humidity would have been high enough for good contrail formation.
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Good lord, the talking heads on Fox are still playing it up ... At least they have an "expert" on saying it's a plane and saying it was the Hawaiian flight identified in this thread earlier. But they are still running it up the flag pole leaving doubt in peoples minds.
It ain't over til the the fat lady sings I guess.
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The story will disappear in a day, and the only thing left will be a few kooks with conspiracy theories. Those kooks will post about this for years.
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http://www.necn.com/11/09/10/Mysterious-missile-launched-off-Californ/landing_scitech.html?blockID=348833&feedID=4213
No, an airliner at 37000 feet doesn't appear that big. It's also going in the wrong direction, south to north.
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Here's yet more confirmation:
http://blog.bahneman.com/content/it-was-us-airways-flight-808
But your right, the conspiracy crowd will continue this forever....
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I'm glad to see that wisdom has largely prevailed on this site (unlike the commenters on other sites...yikes). It is indeed a jet contrail. Space (orbital or suborbital) launches around sunset or twilight look quite different, and they are visible just about *anywhere* in Southern California, not confined to a small band of observers in and around Orange County. They look something like this:
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The list of 'official experts' who were bamboozled by this video has increased. First there was Deputy Secretary of Defense and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Robert Ellsworth, who thoroughly embarrassed himself. Now, Doug Richardson, the editor of Jane's Missiles and Rockets says: "It's a solid propellant missile, you can tell from the efflux [smoke]." Jane's is about as authoritative as it gets.
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No, an airliner at 37000 feet doesn't appear that big. It's also going in the wrong direction, south to north.
Don't forget that the camera was zoomed way in.\, so size can be deceiving.
And jets can look huge even from great distances. I remember a few years ago in Florida watching (what turned out to be) a 747 approach from the north (looked to be heading for Miami) for about fifteen minutes before it finally passed overhead. The contrail was gigantic, prominent in the clear blue sky, and lasted a long, long time.
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I'm glad to see that wisdom has largely prevailed on this site (unlike the commenters on other sites...yikes). It is indeed a jet contrail. Space (orbital or suborbital) launches around sunset or twilight look quite different, and they are visible just about *anywhere* in Southern California, not confined to a small band of observers in and around Orange County. They look something like this:
That is the noctilucent cloud that I was talking about! Big difference. In addition, other people have watched the skies the next day and saw similiar features. It is a jet contrail so we can finally put this to bed.
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If it was a missile, how come the pilots of AWE808 didn't see it?
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If it was a missile, how come the pilots of AWE808 didn't see it?
It missed?
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If it was a missile, how come the pilots of AWE808 didn't see it?
or the crew and passengers of dozens of other airliners and private aircraft that were passing through the area around the same time. This is one of the busiest bits of airspace in the world (see http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KLAX ). A contrail from a space launch or large missile would be visible from many flights in the area.
The fact that there isn't a flood of cell phone video of this event from many different angles is a pretty conclusive indication that specific geometry was required to make it look special.
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It would be nice of CBS to put up a proper full length video so one can figure this out.
It would be, wouldn't it? It's certainly a high ratings video as it stands, ain't it?
I think not...
... therefore I am not!
That was truly excellent. Don't worry. I shall be using it without attribution at my earliest convenience! Elliot Carver has always been one of my favorite philosophers.
So you're believing a camera-wielding traffic reporter over people who have seen launches?
Who ya gonna believe, me or your lyin' eyes? It still looks to me like it goes behind the "upper" cloud bank in the video. But I don't know what it is. I do know that this is a UFO:
http://www.dalefield.com/earth/warmer.html
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The story will disappear in a day, and the only thing left will be a few kooks with conspiracy theories. Those kooks will post about this for years.
It's been surprisingly persistent so far.
I'm encountering dozens of people in a couple other forums I frequent absolutely convinced it's a missile. A couple come up with partially supportable reasons, but most just settle for deriding anyone who thinks the US would not lie about an event they normally brag about (seriously - google "Trident test" or "Minuteman test" or "missile defense test" or "NROL launch." Secrecy about details is common. Denial of the very fact of a launch sits somewhere between extremely unusual and outright unprecedented).
A few other pieces of evidence in support of it being an aircraft I've come up with:
- Russia and China have made no comments about not sharing information about a test that could potentially be mistaken for a nuclear attack. My understanding is such information sharing is the norm.
- If it was another nation's missile that for some reason the military isn't using as a call for policy change, the military is strangely calm and collected. For example, my cousin who is an officer in a Minuteman maintenance squadron is bantering about the contrail video on the family email list instead of being stuck on base on alert with instructions not to talk to civilians, Obama made no changes to his recent trip itinerary, and there's no swarms of P-3's dropping sonobuoys off the California coast looking for the culprit.
- An aircraft contrail in the right place appears in satellite images starting prior to the reported filming:
http://weblogs.dailypress.com/news/science/dead_rise/2010/11/nasa_says_mysterious_contrail_caused_by_plane_not_missile.html
- The above link also points out a lack of the usual concerned 911 calls following actual rocket launches, supporting limited perspectives from which it appeared like a rocket.
- I think John Pike of Global Security already pointed out that if it was so secret to be worth not just avoiding admission, but lying about, there's almost no conceivable reason to launch within view of the largest city on the West coast instead of Kwajalein or a similarly remote location.
- A longer video that reveals several things:
http://weblogs.dailypress.com/news/science/dead_rise/2010/11/nasa_says_mysterious_contrail_caused_by_plane_not_missile.html
1.) The plume thins out substantially and becomes short-lived 40 seconds in, indicating flight through drier air (well, or a staging event) and explaining why it wasn't noticed as it passed directly overhead.
2.) An increasing angular rate, suggesting it's getting closer, not arcing downrange and moving further away.
3.) Darkening as the contrail passes into the earth's shadow, effectively proving the east-bound trajectory and supporting the level-flight. A climbing, west-bound missile would definitely stay in the sunlight.
Also, assuming it was 35 miles away when filming started, as blindly guessed by CBS based on the distance to Catalina Island, over two minutes of flight at 39,000 feet and at a 757's cruise speed, the viewing elevation from the ground would change from 12 degrees to 23 degrees, explaining why viewers of the 20 seconds of video CBS originally provided did not perceive it getting closer.
I would have expected better from the guy from Jane's - seeing a plume in high-contrast lighting and assuming with no other reasoning this indicated particulate condensate from a solid-fueled rocket.
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I understand that the video was 10 minutes long, ie that the plume was filmed for 10 minutes. There is no missile in the world that burns for 10 minutes without staging, and probably not for 10 minutes including all stages without achieving orbital velocity.
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An interesting illusion, one I have noticed myself as I fly the same airspace off and on over the years, makes you look twice sure.
The real story for me has been the human perceptions of it afterwards.
Oh well, what you gonna do?
This illusion will keep happening again and again of course, so I think it will sink in in time for those that think something sinister or secret was occuring.
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The story will disappear in a day, and the only thing left will be a few kooks with conspiracy theories. Those kooks will post about this for years.
Yup, including NASA... ;)
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/mystery-contrail.html
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Yup, including NASA... ;)
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/mystery-contrail.html
Please note that the site actually debunks the conspiracy theory. Isn't that the kind of thing you would prefer that NASA do?
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Yup, including NASA... ;)
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/mystery-contrail.html
Please note that the site actually debunks the conspiracy theory. Isn't that the kind of thing you would prefer that NASA do?
The 'winky' was used to play on the 'The story will disappear in a day...' comment :)
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The 'winky' was used to play on the 'The story will disappear in a day...' comment :)
you mean Chris is going to mod it out of existance :o
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you mean Chris is going to mod it out of existance :o
I wish.
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You mean Chris is going to mod it out of existance...
What UFO?