You miss the point Sagan was making. Might I suggest you watch this -
Quote from: deaville on 12/28/2017 12:42 pmYou miss the point Sagan was making. Might I suggest you watch this -I think the inimitable Carl Sagan said everything there is to say on "UFOs" and nothing has changed since. The whole field really says more about human psychology and the limits of our perception, than anything else. That is a pity, because there are a lot of interesting but rare real phenomena that could be missed, such as earth grazing meteors, high altitude lightning, and quite possibly other unknown effects.It's worth noting that "a light" is the absolute minimum information for us to to detect if "something" is there at all. That light could be generated by the object or reflected, or not actually represent a solid object at all. Size, shape and distance are all unknowns. Given the lack of information, imaginations run rampant. There are credible, sober people who have misidentified objects such as Venus and the Moon as UFOs, so unfortunately the bar for quality of reporting is set very low.There is an interesting tale of a parachutist who appeared to capture a falling meteorite on camera. This was investigated and seemed to be confirmed. That led to many headlines such as "Meteorite narrowly misses Norwegian skydiver"[1].However, a large body of skeptics suggested that the "meteorite" was actually a pebble that was inside the parachute and released when it opened. That explanation in the end was deemed more plausible. [2]So even when we have good video evidence, and a credible eyewitness, we have trouble identifying whether a falling object is a meteorite or just a common pebble, how can we expect to make reliable conclusions of extraterrestrial presence from fuzzy video images, no matter how many? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.[1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/10742854/Meteorite-narrowly-misses-Norwegian-skydiver.html[2] http://norskmeteornettverk.no/wordpress/?p=1497
I would add though that some sceptics are just as bad as true believers, being just as inflexible of mind and belief.
... there will need to be considerably better evidence for alien spacecraft visiting Earth than the suggestion that I need to be more open-minded about fuzzy blobs.
Quote from: Star One on 03/10/2018 09:24 amI would add though that some sceptics are just as bad as true believers, being just as inflexible of mind and belief.Unfortunately, that is the type of sentiment I often see on "Free Energy/Perpetual Motion" forums to dismiss skeptics who say that PM is impossible, due to "laws of physics". Believing in scientific laws is not being "as bad" as true believers , nor is requiring hard evidence for extraordinary claims.So unless you are careful about how you say it, you are dangerously close to saying belief in "woo" theories has some equivalence to belief in scientific knowledge, which is quite definitely not the case. A lack of flexibility in mind and belief has never really been a problem, since humans excel at those. The scientific method is the one thing that constrains those tendencies to discover knowledge that is provably true.I am quite inflexible when it comes to laws such as the conservation of energy, to the point where it can be seen as dogmatic. However, that does not even slightly make me "as bad" as people who believe in fairies.I am sorry to say that there will need to be considerably better evidence for alien spacecraft visiting Earth than the suggestion that I need to be more open-minded about fuzzy blobs.
On NSF, what I'd prefer to see instead is a thread on old magazine cover art showing buxom females in various stages of undress beset by bug-eyed space alien monsters. Not that I expect to get it
I don't blame you. I only have a Facebook page to keep in touch with some far-flung relatives and friends. But on Farcebook; Every single page on space exploration and NASA in particular is brutally and relentlessly trolled by flat earthers, hoaxtards and religious nuts. Same reason I don't put my videos on YouTube. I'm not a conspiracy theorist at all - but I have become convinced that this is a well-organized campaign
or perhaps, an insect on the lens.
New video that shows there are billions of intelligent civilizations in the Universe Detailed calculation of number of intelligent civilizations in Universe and Milky Way. Based on latest discoveries and pure logic. Calculated with mathematical strictness. After seeing this film no one can deny existence of alien civilizations. In second part of the film it is explained why, in spite of enormous number of intelligent civilizations, there hasn't been any contact with them, yet.
Quote from: adis on 04/28/2018 12:17 amNew video that shows there are billions of intelligent civilizations in the Universe Detailed calculation of number of intelligent civilizations in Universe and Milky Way. Based on latest discoveries and pure logic. Calculated with mathematical strictness. After seeing this film no one can deny existence of alien civilizations. In second part of the film it is explained why, in spite of enormous number of intelligent civilizations, there hasn't been any contact with them, yet.I'm passingly familiar with the Fermi Paradox and Drake Equation but there's one or two numbers here that I'm not sure I understand. Number of planets in habitable zone that develop basic life during their existence. For which they give a "conservative" answer of 1 out of 20. How do we really know that? The real number could be 1 out of a billion. Or less. Subsequently, intelligent life might be stupendously rare. We have no idea. It's entirely possible humans are the only intelligent life to have ever developed in the Milky Way.
BTW I made the film.
If we DO know that in our solar system there are 2 planets in habitable zone and life developed on one-Earth (one out of two), and we have to make an assumption why would it be 1 out of billion Why not 1/2 Why not 1 out of 1 In that light 1 out of 20 is very conservative to me.
Quote from: Space Dingus on 04/28/2018 02:39 amQuote from: adis on 04/28/2018 12:17 amNew video that shows there are billions of intelligent civilizations in the Universe Detailed calculation of number of intelligent civilizations in Universe and Milky Way. Based on latest discoveries and pure logic. Calculated with mathematical strictness. After seeing this film no one can deny existence of alien civilizations. In second part of the film it is explained why, in spite of enormous number of intelligent civilizations, there hasn't been any contact with them, yet.I'm passingly familiar with the Fermi Paradox and Drake Equation but there's one or two numbers here that I'm not sure I understand. Number of planets in habitable zone that develop basic life during their existence. For which they give a "conservative" answer of 1 out of 20. How do we really know that? The real number could be 1 out of a billion. Or less. Subsequently, intelligent life might be stupendously rare. We have no idea. It's entirely possible humans are the only intelligent life to have ever developed in the Milky Way.Well, obviously we have to make assumptions/estimates otherwise calculation would be impossible. If we DO know that in our solar system there are 2 planets in habitable zone and life developed on one-Earth (one out of two), and we have to make an assumption why would it be 1 out of billion Why not 1/2 Why not 1 out of 1 In that light 1 out of 20 is very conservative to me. BTW I made the film.