Author Topic: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?  (Read 11107 times)

Online Blackstar

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #20 on: 01/31/2009 03:25 pm »
I would have liked to see the X-38 go forward, but like so many things, it got just to the point of fabrication and lo, it was cancelled.  A few others:
LIST SNIPPED

There's a common thread tying together most of the things on your list.  Most of them had development times so long that by the time they neared production, the underlying justifications for them had disappeared.  The Commanche light helicopter and the Crusader artillery piece, for instance, were Cold War systems.  Commanche had a lot of stealth characteristics that were not needed after the Cold War.  Crusader was too darned heavy, designed for Germany and fixed logistics chains.

It's always worth looking at the time from conception to production and comparing that to the social changes underlying the requirements.  That's also true for space systems.  It's the reason why space solar power makes no sense--the development time is so long that other technologies will come along in the meantime and render SPS obsolete.

Offline beb

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #21 on: 01/31/2009 04:26 pm »
There seems to be a lot of hostility to even asking if the X-38 should be finished. If it merely duplicated functions of Orion then obviously, no. But if the X-38 was designed for other functions not present in Orion then there's a case for finishing it.

From what I've read, the X-38 was intended as a Crew Rescue Vehicle. It was to provide automated return to earth, low gee force re-entry and land landing capabilities so that injured astronauts could be brought to earth close to a hospital. Orion can not land on land, it has limited dwell time in the ocean, is not automated, and probably have a fairly high gee force level of re-entry. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

So it sounds to me that there is a distinction of merit between Orion and the X-38.

However if it would take six years to finish and requires the Shuttle for delivery then the question becomes moot since there won't be a Shuttle available for delivery by then.

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #22 on: 02/05/2010 04:23 am »
Bump. Is reviving X-38 viable now that Constellation has been cancelled? Jorge said it could only be done if Orion were cancelled. That has just happened. Other possibility: could there be synergy with HL-20 / Dream Chaser development? Could it help alleviate the pain of job losses at JSC?
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Online Jorge

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #23 on: 02/05/2010 04:33 am »
Bump. Is reviving X-38 viable now that Constellation has been cancelled? Jorge said it could only be done if Orion were cancelled. That has just happened.

The assumptions in the Muratore report remain valid, I think: X-38 could be fielded in the 2014-15 timeframe. OTOH, Lockheed-Martin claims that Orion could be fielded in 2013, absent the schedule "long pole" of the Ares I launch vehicle.

Quote
Other possibility: could there be synergy with HL-20 / Dream Chaser development? Could it help alleviate the pain of job losses at JSC?

Some tiny percentage of the job losses, yes.
JRF

Offline bad_astra

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #24 on: 02/05/2010 02:36 pm »
Isn't LIDS still the long pole item for any of these new vehicles? CBM as has been mentioned, would not have been handy for a rescue vehicle.
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Online Jorge

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #25 on: 02/05/2010 03:01 pm »
Isn't LIDS still the long pole item for any of these new vehicles?

No, for X-38 the rest of X-38 would be the long pole, since LIDS development was continuing while X-38 was cancelled. The rest of X-38 would have to resume from pretty much a standing start.
JRF

Offline agman25

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #26 on: 02/05/2010 03:11 pm »
Is LIDS development canceled along with the rest of Constellation.

Online Jorge

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #27 on: 02/05/2010 04:42 pm »
Is LIDS development canceled along with the rest of Constellation.

LIDS seems at least somewhat likely to survive as either a technology demonstrator or an international docking adapter.
JRF

Offline bad_astra

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #28 on: 02/05/2010 08:16 pm »
I hope it does. This is one thing that should translate well into new plans.
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Offline neilh

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #29 on: 02/05/2010 11:41 pm »
Bump. Is reviving X-38 viable now that Constellation has been cancelled? Jorge said it could only be done if Orion were cancelled. That has just happened. Other possibility: could there be synergy with HL-20 / Dream Chaser development? Could it help alleviate the pain of job losses at JSC?

What are the advantages (if any) that the X-38 offers over the HL-20/Dream Chaser? As an aside, SpaceDev claimed in 2006 that they can develop the Dream Chaser for $50 million.
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Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #30 on: 02/05/2010 11:43 pm »
I don't know if it would have advantages. I was just curious if Dream Chaser could make use of some of the stuff done on X-38, specifically the avionics. Both are lifting bodies, but I don't know how much that matters.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #31 on: 02/05/2010 11:55 pm »
I don't know if it would have advantages. I was just curious if Dream Chaser could make use of some of the stuff done on X-38, specifically the avionics. Both are lifting bodies, but I don't know how much that matters.
It should mean that there are some similarities for the various control laws when operating at similar mach numbers, Reynolds numbers, dynamic pressure, etc. You may need to change some of the values of the different matrices... that's what unmanned test flights are for!
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Offline nooneofconsequence

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #32 on: 02/06/2010 12:20 am »
IIRC, X-38 avionics were off the shelf, with from the ground up software written so that parts could be swapped in/out. The intent was to not be trapped with a single sourced part, and the software was specific to the X-38 vehicle dynamics - it wasn't meant to be arbitrarily reusable.

I remember a rumor going around about some of it coming from another project or being used for another project - perhaps thats the source of your notion. Have no idea what thats about.
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Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #33 on: 02/06/2010 12:24 am »
I remember a rumor going around about some of it coming from another project or being used for another project - perhaps thats the source of your notion.

Neh, just pure, unadulterated amazing peopleism coupled with wishful thinking. Did I mention I love Dream Chaser?  ;D
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Offline Kitspacer

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Re: Can X-38 be revived? How much would it cost?
« Reply #34 on: 02/06/2010 05:55 am »
Do you think it was coincidental that one of the authors just happened to be the head hancho for X-38? 

Beyond that, do you think X-38 really has the capability in it's design to serve as the centerpiece for a beyond-LEO exploration vehicle?

Hardly an exploration vehicle. More the classic(reusable?) LEO and back Taxi/Emergency Lifecraft: as originally intended.  There is a possibility - if we EVER decide to do it - of it serving as a shuttle to a Mars base from Orbital Motherships: Mars atmosphere, whilst much deeper is extremely thin.  The time has come for such a vehicle since the attempt to combine a goods truck with a passenger vehicle(STS) was a financial failure. But it needs to be made light enough to mate with a good selection of launch vehicles such that it could be lofted by Falcons, Atlases and Deltas: of the heavy variety, naturally.  It's greatest advantage is having better choice in landing venues than a ballistic-type Capsule. Especially if it can accommodate a multi-fuel turbo-rocket such as SABRE.

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