Predict Actual SLS Artemis I Launch Date

[Jim]

June 16th

[tenkendojo]

Just did a quick linear regression line plot on the napkin, looks like the announced date and launch date line intersect somewhere around first half of 2022. I'll just go with April 2nd, 2022 then.

[Yggdrasill]

March 14th.

Edit: 2022, BTW...

[VSECOTSPE]

Did issues arise during modal testing?

If yes, I’d venture Q3 2022, at the earliest, to Q2 2023.

If not, whatever the program currently says, plus weather.

[RotoSequence]

July 4

[Eric Hedman]

I'm going to guess that things will go unusually smoothly with a successful launch in the last days of the  February launch window.

[Orbiter]

April or May 2022.

[Stan-1967]

March 15th, 2022. 


"Beware the Ides of March"

[Coastal Ron]

June 16th

Maybe change this to a poll of what month it will launch? Then put the day of the month in your response?

I'd be interested to see which month has the most responses...

[woods170]

April 20th, 2022.

[Joseph Peterson]

Since I don't actually have a clue I decided to look up a list of national days.  While there are many intriguing possibilities I'm going to go with April 15th, National Take A Wild Guess Day.

[Phil Stooke]

I'm guessing my birthday (already picked by a prescient poster above), and I will announce when that is if I am right.  Chiefly, however, I am looking forward to the choices of those of us (and there were many) who used to insist that SLS would never get off the ground.

[gbl]

LP 21, more specifically, May 14, 2022.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

April 12, 2022 

[VSECOTSPE]

I wrote this in late August 2014:

The confidence level in the new November 2018 date for the first launch of SLS (EM-1) is only 70%. This means that the project has about a 1-in-3 chance of slipping to 2019 or later, assuming no issues not already worked into the estimate crop up.

The project was started in 2011, and the 2010 NASA Authorization Act required SLS to launch by 2016. It is now four years later, and the likely launch date for EM-1 has slipped to 2018 or later, a slip of two years in the first launch of SLS. That’s one year of schedule slippage for every two years that the project has existed. If the SLS schedule continues to slip at this rate over the next four years, the date of the first SLS launch will slip from 2018 to 2020. And then from 2018 to 2020, SLS will slip one more year or so before finally launching for the first time somewhere in the 2021-2022 timeframe.

Sometimes the simplest analysis is the most accurate.

[Surfdaddy]

June 16th

What year?
Well, it COULD slip a lot...

[Overwatchfan123]

June 16th

What year?
Well, it COULD slip a lot...

2022, I think, given the situation.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

May 13th, 2022

It uses the 1 day of slip for every 2 days of work. Which for the current scheduled launch date 91 days away compounded gives a result of 181 days from today.

BTW May 13th is a Friday. Sounds appropriate.

[Overwatchfan123]

What a coincidence, right? Friday the 13th? Let's just hope that Freddy Krueger won't be there to do anything bad, right? Ha ha!

[AS_501]

March 12, 2022.  Reasoning?  None

[rower2000]

July 16, 2022. Commemorating the 53rd anniversary of Apollo 11's launch  .

[Cherokee43v6]

Just did a quick linear regression line plot on the napkin, looks like the announced date and launch date line intersect somewhere around first half of 2022. I'll just go with April 2nd, 2022 then.

I look at this one and I have to pull a 'Price is Right' bid...

April 1st.

nuff said.

[eeergo]

June 16th

Wonder if that was informed by the OIG report (which I assume you could have been privy of before its public release)? https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-22-003.pdf

An ABC establishes and documents an integrated set of project requirements, cost, schedule, technical content, and an agreed Joint Cost and Schedule Confidence Level that forms the basis for NASA’s commitment to the Office of Management and Budget and Congress. The original 2014 SLS ABC established a goal to launch in December 2017 and a commitment to launch by November 2018.  The SLS and EGS Programs were rebaselined in early 2020 to a November 2021 Artemis I ABC launch date.  This assessment did not include COVID-19 impacts, as it occurred prior to the onset of the pandemic. Despite missing Artemis I’s revised ABC launch date of November 2021, ESD officials are confident the integrationand launch will be completed in spring 2022, with a higher probability of launch—in our [OIG's] estimation—by summer 2022.

As a result of [Green Run abort] delays, the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple weather events, and the 10 months required for integration and testing, Artemis I will not be ready to launch until at least late February 2022, 3 months after its ABC launch readiness date [from early 2020, or around 3.3 years after its 2014 ABC date] .EGS Program schedules and a June 2021 HEOMD Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) cite a risk-informed launch readiness date of mid-April 2022. In our judgment, the Agency is on track to launch Artemis I by summer 2022. While first-time integration issues may cause additional delays, NASA currently reports no remaining major issues.

In other words, NET LP18 as already known. When factoring in possible remaining risks (guessing revolving mostly around WDR), April. Being extra conservative although no issues support such posture as of now, summer.
Personally, I have confidence in the current LP18 if no showstoppers are found at the pad, but I did not understand properly the cause for the approximately month-long slip in mid-October - as far as I know, although I was not paying close attention during those days, no particular one was given. LP19-22 then look quite safe if some issues pop up which do not require extensive repairs. Of course, the summer is even safer, but IMO that would take major problems cropping up during the winter.

[DanClemmensen]

When, if ever, will NASA and NG revisit the SRB stack time limit? We know from the earlier discussion that the SRBs use a pressure-sensitive adhesive (PSA) as part of the seal between segments, and the PSA was initially rated to last for one year from time of stacking. That time expires in early January 2022, but NG engineers re-analyzed the tests and inspections done during stacking and recommended that the time could be extended.

Did NASA ever formally accept this recommendation? If so, how long is the extension?

Were any actual long term tests ever done? What about accelerated aging tests?  That PSA is part of a really interesting design. The force that will actually cause the adhesion to occur is the enormous pressure of the SRB's burning propellant. Not easy to test.

As a complete outsider, I'm guessing that the original one-year limit was a very conservative guesstimate, made by analysts that subconsciously knew that an SRB would never remain stacked for a year.

[Overwatchfan123]

Just did a quick linear regression line plot on the napkin, looks like the announced date and launch date line intersect somewhere around first half of 2022. I'll just go with April 2nd, 2022 then.

I look at this one and I have to pull a 'Price is Right' bid...

April 1st.

nuff said.

APRIL FOOL!

[Jim]

June 16th

Wonder if that was informed by the OIG report (which I assume you could have been privy of before its public release)?

Nope, just a best guess

[AS_501]

I trust the person(s) who pick or come closest to the actual launch date will be granted a tour of pad 39B, the VAB, the LCC, etc. etc.   

[Mark S]

Boldly predicting first launch on February 30th, 2022.

Barring that, either March 15th (beware!) or May the Fourth (be with you).

Okay, actually I have no clue. Sometime in 1Q CY2022 would be nice, though.

[nicp]

No idea. So August 30th. My birthday.

[c4fusion]

Since the SLS seems to have a magical power to always be 6 months away, I will say a cheeky never.

A more realistic guess is September 15th, since I expect some slip even from the new June 22nd date.

[Steven Pietrobon]

When, if ever, will NASA and NG revisit the SRB stack time limit? We know from the earlier discussion that the SRBs use a pressure-sensitive adhesive (PSA) as part of the seal between segments, and the PSA was initially rated to last for one year from time of stacking. That time expires in early January 2022, but NG engineers re-analyzed the tests and inspections done during stacking and recommended that the time could be extended.

Did NASA ever formally accept this recommendation? If so, how long is the extension?

The SRB life was extended by six months.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/09/first-artemis-1-integrated-tests/

"With the projection that the soonest everything could be ready to launch Artemis 1 moving into January, the SLS Program and Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) prime contractor Northrop Grumman has completed an analysis of the amount of time the SRBs can be stacked. The generic limit for the Boosters is a maximum of 12 months, but additional measurements were taken during Booster stacking operations early in 2021 and the analysis using that data says the limit can be extended another six months for the Artemis 1 Boosters."

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

When, if ever, will NASA and NG revisit the SRB stack time limit? We know from the earlier discussion that the SRBs use a pressure-sensitive adhesive (PSA) as part of the seal between segments, and the PSA was initially rated to last for one year from time of stacking. That time expires in early January 2022, but NG engineers re-analyzed the tests and inspections done during stacking and recommended that the time could be extended.

Did NASA ever formally accept this recommendation? If so, how long is the extension?

The SRB life was extended by six months.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/09/first-artemis-1-integrated-tests/

"With the projection that the soonest everything could be ready to launch Artemis 1 moving into January, the SLS Program and Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) prime contractor Northrop Grumman has completed an analysis of the amount of time the SRBs can be stacked. The generic limit for the Boosters is a maximum of 12 months, but additional measurements were taken during Booster stacking operations early in 2021 and the analysis using that data says the limit can be extended another six months for the Artemis 1 Boosters."

In other words good to go till July/early August. So if something causes a slip past August, it will be not just a Q4 2022 date but somewhere in 2023 due to losing 6+ months to de-stack and re-stack.

[DanClemmensen]

When, if ever, will NASA and NG revisit the SRB stack time limit? We know from the earlier discussion that the SRBs use a pressure-sensitive adhesive (PSA) as part of the seal between segments, and the PSA was initially rated to last for one year from time of stacking. That time expires in early January 2022, but NG engineers re-analyzed the tests and inspections done during stacking and recommended that the time could be extended.

Did NASA ever formally accept this recommendation? If so, how long is the extension?

The SRB life was extended by six months.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/09/first-artemis-1-integrated-tests/

"With the projection that the soonest everything could be ready to launch Artemis 1 moving into January, the SLS Program and Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) prime contractor Northrop Grumman has completed an analysis of the amount of time the SRBs can be stacked. The generic limit for the Boosters is a maximum of 12 months, but additional measurements were taken during Booster stacking operations early in 2021 and the analysis using that data says the limit can be extended another six months for the Artemis 1 Boosters."

In other words good to go till July/early August. So if something causes a slip past August, it will be not just a Q4 2022 date but somewhere in 2023 due to losing 6+ months to de-stack and re-stack.

If they (who?) acknowledge this early enough, then there is no slip, because they can de-stack and re-stack starting early enough to stay off the critical path. If they start now and it takes six months, launch could still be NET May 2022. If they dither on this and make a decision later than Jan 2022, it will delay the mission. If they (who?) acknowledge this early enough, then there is no slip, because they can de-stack and re-stack starting early enough to stay off the critical path. If they start now and it takes six months, launch could still be NET April 2022. If they dither on this and make a decision later than Jan 2022, it will delay the mission. I want to see SLS launch and succeed. I don't want to see it go boom due to an SRB joint failure. I do not know if this is the highest-probability known potential failure mode. I do know that it is a known potential failure mode. Given the insane amount of money already spent on SLS.Orion, the cost of the destack/restack is inconsequential. I suspect the SLS/Orion team would like another excuse to slip the schedule anyway, so they should take this golden opportunity.

[Hog]

When, if ever, will NASA and NG revisit the SRB stack time limit? We know from the earlier discussion that the SRBs use a pressure-sensitive adhesive (PSA) as part of the seal between segments, and the PSA was initially rated to last for one year from time of stacking. That time expires in early January 2022, but NG engineers re-analyzed the tests and inspections done during stacking and recommended that the time could be extended.

Did NASA ever formally accept this recommendation? If so, how long is the extension?

The SRB life was extended by six months.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/09/first-artemis-1-integrated-tests/

"With the projection that the soonest everything could be ready to launch Artemis 1 moving into January, the SLS Program and Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) prime contractor Northrop Grumman has completed an analysis of the amount of time the SRBs can be stacked. The generic limit for the Boosters is a maximum of 12 months, but additional measurements were taken during Booster stacking operations early in 2021 and the analysis using that data says the limit can be extended another six months for the Artemis 1 Boosters."

In other words good to go till July/early August. So if something causes a slip past August, it will be not just a Q4 2022 date but somewhere in 2023 due to losing 6+ months to de-stack and re-stack.

Why go through all that trouble when another 6 month waiver is a mere keystroke away?   It's a test flight, testing among many things, the first time a pair of 5 segment RSRMV will be fired in flight position-vertical.  I remember the horizontal 5 segment testing in Utah. The test stand for the 5 segment motor required a center brace to support the midpoint of the motor due to the extra segment and its accompanying mass/length.

Whenever Artemis-1 does launch, LC-39B is going to feel a kick it has never felt before, a 9,520,000 pounds /4,2347,069 Newtons kick.  1/2 a single RSRMV's liftoff thrust more than the Saturn-V's 5 x F-1 liftoff thrust.

March 27

[JAFO]

I'm hoping for between April 5-10, during the Sun n' Fun Air Expo. https://flysnf.org/

[Vahe231991]

NASA had made a precise launch date for the Artemis 1 mission conditional upon completion of the wet dress rehearsal test, and because NASA declared that the June 20 WDR test was virtually successful despite a liquid hydrogen leak on the QD (which caused the mock countdown to be stopped at T-29 seconds) and accomplished enough objectives to go ahead with rolling back the vehicle into the VAB and proceeding to preparations for launch, it is leaning towards a late August/early September launch window for Artemis 1 (August 23 through September 6), and it will set a precise launch date within that window once the SLS rocket is rolled back into the VAB and fitted with all the systems necessary for launch.

[Orbiter]

April or May 2022.

I amend this to August 29th, 2022.

Only because that's my birthday

[Overwatchfan123]

Space.com article on October 22nd, 2021: forecasted launch date... February 12th 2022 (estimated to be 113 days between news/forecast).
https://www.space.com/nasa-sls-megarocket-artemis-1-moon-launch-february-2022


Estimated forecast in news (113 days) x Euler's number (e = 2.718281828459045235360287471352662497757247093699959574966967627724076630353547594571382178525166427427466 ...) = 307 days

Predicted date of launch: 
Thursday, August 25, 2022 which is Burger Day, National Banana Split Day as well as Kiss-and-Make-Up Day.  Also occurs during Cat 5 Hurricane Ian.

The moon phase will be near a new moon.  So, a very challenging flight around the moon given the orbital position relative to the Earth's magnetic field/bow shock.

For more digits of Euler's number (e), please visit the NASA Goddard website link at:
https://apod.nasa.gov/htmltest/gifcity/e.1mil

Currently sticking with my original forecast from last November 2021.  Currently +/- 12 hours, but still ~August 25th, 2022 12:00 ZULU time during a Cat V hurricane.  Going to squeak this one in there.

How do you know when a hurricane is going to come?

[Elvis in Space]

Space.com article on October 22nd, 2021: forecasted launch date... February 12th 2022 (estimated to be 113 days between news/forecast).
https://www.space.com/nasa-sls-megarocket-artemis-1-moon-launch-february-2022


Estimated forecast in news (113 days) x Euler's number (e = 2.718281828459045235360287471352662497757247093699959574966967627724076630353547594571382178525166427427466 ...) = 307 days

Predicted date of launch: 
Thursday, August 25, 2022 which is Burger Day, National Banana Split Day as well as Kiss-and-Make-Up Day.  Also occurs during Cat 5 Hurricane Ian.

The moon phase will be near a new moon.  So, a very challenging flight around the moon given the orbital position relative to the Earth's magnetic field/bow shock.

For more digits of Euler's number (e), please visit the NASA Goddard website link at:
https://apod.nasa.gov/htmltest/gifcity/e.1mil

Currently sticking with my original forecast from last November 2021.  Currently +/- 12 hours, but still ~August 25th, 2022 12:00 ZULU time during a Cat V hurricane.  Going to squeak this one in there.

How do you know when a hurricane is going to come?

The same way you know when it's going to launch.

[Vahe231991]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/nasa-aims-to-launch-the-sls-rocket-in-just-2-months/

[hoku]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/nasa-aims-to-launch-the-sls-rocket-in-just-2-months/

"NASA's senior exploration official, Jim Free, said the agency is working toward a launch window of August 23 to September 6."

Said official is also quoted with stating that "progress (made) last week" is "incredible", thus one might take his prediction "cum grano salis" ...